Surprise, surprise!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

In today's 'Articles' I see we have, yet again, another surprise 'build'.

Why doesn't this surprise me!

I wonder when they will wake up and adjust their model?

The sad thing is that some people actually believe these numbers.

[Rodent + 1,424]

8 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In today's 'Articles' I see we have, yet again, another surprise 'build'.

Why doesn't this surprise me!

When I wrote this week's API article, as I typed the phrase "surprise build" I thought, "Is it really, though??" Alas, it apparently is to the analysts guessing. 

[Falcon + 222]

45 minutes ago, Rodent said:

When I wrote this week's API article, as I typed the phrase "surprise build" I thought, "Is it really, though??" Alas, it apparently is to the analysts guessing. 

API is the Oil Industry PR machine.  They have an agenda.  Notice their numbers always shade toward what benefits the producers. 

Even the EIA numbers are revised several times up to 6 months afterwards. 

Did you see article last week where EIA could not account for inventory of 800,000 bbls a day for the last four weeks.  One theory is producers are under reporting.  The EIA gets production numbers from survey.

[wrs + 893]

16 minutes ago, Falcon said:

API is the Oil Industry PR machine.  They have an agenda.  Notice their numbers always shade toward what benefits the producers. 

Even the EIA numbers are revised several times up to 6 months afterwards. 

Did you see article last week where EIA could not account for inventory of 800,000 bbls a day for the last four weeks.  One theory is producers are under reporting.  The EIA gets production numbers from survey.

The actual reported production is done on a 30 day delayed basis to the RRC in Texas.  The weekly numbers they come up with are the most ridiculous form of WAG I can imagine.  XTO hasn't paid us for all the oil they produced the first three months of the year in part because they have re-reported what they produced to the RRC.  They upped the production for February from 78kbbl to 114kbbl and only paid us for 65kbbl and for January they only paid us for 25kbbl but reported 96kbbl of production.  In March they did pay us for most of what they reported to the RRC but that's the only month so far.  They have 8 wells on that lease and have yet to break the production out on a per well basis as they are supposed to be doing.  With this much production, it's a shit show trying to keep track of the numbers I am sure.  Doesn't leave me with a good feeling that I am getting paid correctly for what they are producing.  If the govt and industry estimates of production are too high, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Edited June 12, 2019 by wrs

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

17 minutes ago, Falcon said:

API is the Oil Industry PR machine.  They have an agenda.  Notice their numbers always shade toward what benefits the producers. 

Even the EIA numbers are revised several times up to 6 months afterwards. 

Did you see article last week where EIA could not account for inventory of 800,000 bbls a day for the last four weeks.  One theory is producers are under reporting.  The EIA gets production numbers from survey.

The thing is, almost every week there is a 'surprise' build or draw! I'll leave it to you clever lads and lasses to argue the actual numbers, but this ongoing surprise tells me something is wrong with the model - and nobody seems to question it!

[Falcon + 222]

3 hours ago, wrs said:

The actual reported production is done on a 30 day delayed basis to the RRC in Texas.  The weekly numbers they come up with are the most ridiculous form of WAG I can imagine.  XTO hasn't paid us for all the oil they produced the first three months of the year in part because they have re-reported what they produced to the RRC.  They upped the production for February from 78kbbl to 114kbbl and only paid us for 65kbbl and for January they only paid us for 25kbbl but reported 96kbbl of production.  In March they did pay us for most of what they reported to the RRC but that's the only month so far.  They have 8 wells on that lease and have yet to break the production out on a per well basis as they are supposed to be doing.  With this much production, it's a shit show trying to keep track of the numbers I am sure.  Doesn't leave me with a good feeling that I am getting paid correctly for what they are producing.  If the govt and industry estimates of production are too high, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

Is this particular to XTO or industry systemic problem.  

The article that spoke about the missing 800K stated their is always differences.  The situation with this discrepancy is it is so large and it has been steady for the last four weeks.  

[wrs + 893]

5 minutes ago, Falcon said:

Is this particular to XTO or industry systemic problem.  

The article that spoke about the missing 800K stated their is always differences.  The situation with this discrepancy is it is so large and it has been steady for the last four weeks.  

I can't say for sure but my independent has been reporting production much later in the month than they used to.  They are typically well past the 30 day limit now and used to be right on time.  The business with XTO not paying for what they reported and then massively increasing the production reported in February is unprecedented and we have had about 15 wells in various different plays over the last five years.  Changes to production that are over 50% just don't happen, something really went wrong there and we still haven't gotten a straight answer from XTO about any of it.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, wrs said:

I can't say for sure but my independent has been reporting production much later in the month than they used to.  They are typically well past the 30 day limit now and used to be right on time.  The business with XTO not paying for what they reported and then massively increasing the production reported in February is unprecedented and we have had about 15 wells in various different plays over the last five years.  Changes to production that are over 50% just don't happen, something really went wrong there and we still haven't gotten a straight answer from XTO about any of it.

I'm curious what the water cut is on your wells? How long do they wait for that water to settle out? Is it possible it takes longer than a month? Just guessing here

[wrs + 893]

8 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

I'm curious what the water cut is on your wells? How long do they wait for that water to settle out? Is it possible it takes longer than a month? Just guessing here

The water is split off by the separators and pumped to a disposal well.  I believe they are set up for 4-5 bbl water to every bbl oil.  That is what they told me when they were out there putting in the water disposal pipelines.  They have one that is 12 inches and another that is 8 inches.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, wrs said:

The actual reported production is done on a 30 day delayed basis to the RRC in Texas.  The weekly numbers they come up with are the most ridiculous form of WAG I can imagine.  XTO hasn't paid us for all the oil they produced the first three months of the year in part because they have re-reported what they produced to the RRC.  They upped the production for February from 78kbbl to 114kbbl and only paid us for 65kbbl and for January they only paid us for 25kbbl but reported 96kbbl of production.  In March they did pay us for most of what they reported to the RRC but that's the only month so far.  They have 8 wells on that lease and have yet to break the production out on a per well basis as they are supposed to be doing.  With this much production, it's a shit show trying to keep track of the numbers I am sure.  Doesn't leave me with a good feeling that I am getting paid correctly for what they are producing.  If the govt and industry estimates of production are too high, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.

I imagine this really helps out the "in crowd" of oil investment speculators. We do need our crony multibillionaires don't we? No!

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

2 hours ago, wrs said:

The water is split off by the separators and pumped to a disposal well.  I believe they are set up for 4-5 bbl water to every bbl oil.  That is what they told me when they were out there putting in the water disposal pipelines.  They have one that is 12 inches and another that is 8 inches.

I know a guy in east Texas who put in a disposal well. He was thinking it really wouldn't pan out but after about a year, he finds an astonishing amount of oil in his "water" well. It took a long time to bubble up, but bubble up it did. So basically oil companies paid him to take their water, plus their oil

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

9 hours ago, Rodent said:

When I wrote this week's API article, as I typed the phrase "surprise build" I thought, "Is it really, though??" Alas, it apparently is to the analysts guessing. 

You write great stuff, Rodi!