Middle East Attack Jolts Oil-Import Dependent Asia

The blasts detonated far from the bustling megacities of Asia, but the attack this week on two tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz hits at the heart of this region’s oil-import-dependent economies - said AP agency in their article. While the violence only directly jolted two countries in the region — one of the targeted ships was operated by a Tokyo-based company; a nearby South Korean-operated vessel helped rescue sailors — it will unnerve major economies throughout Asia. Officials, analysts and media commentators on Friday hammered home the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for Asia, calling it a crucial lifeline, and there was deep interest in for more details about the still sketchy attack and in what the United States and Iran would do in the aftermath. In the end, whether Asia shrugs it off, as some analysts predict, or its economies shudder as a result, the attack highlights the widespread worries here over an extreme reliance on a single strip of water for the oil that fuels much of the region’s shared progress.

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Of course, fear and worries.. For Japan, China and South Korea Strait of Hormuz is essential as their oil supplying sea way  

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it's getting warmer:  President Trump today called Iran "a nation of terror," publicly accusing the Persian Gulf nation of responsibility for recent attacks on oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz

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Do not be surprised if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz ... After it, everything is possible ...

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The Japanese owner of the Kokuka Courageous, one of two oil tankers targeted near the Strait of Hormuz, said Friday that sailors on board saw "flying objects" just before it was hit, suggesting the vessel wasn't damaged by mines. 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oil-tanker-attacks-gulf-of-oman-tanker-owner-seems-to-dispute-us-account-of-gulf-of-oman-attack-today-2019-06-14/

 

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3 minutes ago, Pavel said:

Do not be surprised if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz ... After it, everything is possible ...

I agree ... it could be "uncontrolled" escalation ...

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6 hours ago, 50 shades of black said:

Of course, fear and worries.. For Japan, China and South Korea Strait of Hormuz is essential as their oil supplying sea way  

Maybe all those at risk should form a security force for the protection of the area, or just pay our military up front. 

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6 hours ago, Pavel said:

Do not be surprised if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz ... After it, everything is possible ...

Do you think our efforts are really stopping their oil through the Strait? If not they would lose more revenue, which they badly need.  

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US oil supply keeping lid on prices despite global risks: IEA chief

Growth in US oil production has kept prices at "reasonable levels" despite the recent oil tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and other supply risks around the world, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said.

"There is substantial amount of oil coming from the United States, which puts a strong ceiling on oil prices," Birol said in an interview Friday on the sidelines of the G20 energy ministerial meetings in Karuizawa, Japan.

"Growth from the United States is a welcome addition to oil markets, especially looking at from an oil security point of view and looking at affordability for oil importers, including Japan, Korea and other Asian importers."

The IEA's June Oil Market Report forecast non-OPEC supply growth will rise to 2.3 million b/d in 2020, from 1.9 million b/d this year amid a surge in US shale and strong output from Brazil and Norway as new fields start up.

"According to our numbers, in five years' time, the United States will be the largest exporter in the world," Birol said.

"This is great news for consumers. Think about the fact we are seeing so many developments in the world: Venezuela, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and many [others]. Still, oil prices are staying at reasonable levels."

TANKER ATTACKS A WAKE-UP CALL

The alleged attack on two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz Thursday was a wake-up call to stakeholders in oil markets, Birol said.

"We are seriously concerned about the recent attacks, and we are monitoring the situation very closely in consultation with our member governments. We are ready to act if and when it is necessary."

The Front Altair and the Kokuka Courageous were carrying cargoes including naphtha. The incidents followed attacks on May 12 on four tankers near the bunkering port of Fujairah.

"Having lots of supply does not mean that oil security is not important, and this very important incident reminds all of us, all actors in the markets once again, how important an issue oil security is," Birol said.

The Strait of Hormuz was the most important oil choke point, especially for Asian energy importers, he said.

"Today about 18 million barrels of oil on a daily basis flows through this choke point coming from Saudi Arabia, emirates and other countries to China, Japan, India and other Asian customers."

"But at the same time it is a major route for LNG, liquefied natural gas. About 30% of LNG goes through this strait, coming again to Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries."

Asked whether oil importers will need to seek alternative supplies away from regions so as not to have to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Birol said: "I think this will be a situation observed by oil importers, especially in this part of the world."

Birol said he did not expect a major shift in oil flows any time soon.

The tanker attacks and heightened supply risks came at a time of concerns about lower global oil demand growth.

Asked which was the biggest risk to the oil market, Birol said the IEA cut its oil demand growth forecast in its June report mainly because of a slowing in the global economy -- "not only the advanced economy, but [also] the emerging countries. Chinese economic growth prospects are much lower than previously thought".

The IEA cut its 2019 oil growth again to 1.2 million b/d, but it sees 2020 growth of 1.4 million b/d on petrochemical demand.

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The jolt would have been deadlier without the US crude oil and liquids and NG supplies breaking records. All the shale detractors, specially in the OG industry, still wont like this.

Without US shale production, we could be seeing prices well lets say WTI to be around , well figure it this way, remove all US production from Shale, subtract the crude oil output from around the world that is shut in for any reason, Venezuela failure, Libya conflict, Iran sanctions, Canadian issues, North Sea decline, Nigeria swamp militancy attacks and theft, increased demands over the last 5 years etc, and we would be looking @ 120$/bbl WTI and 130$/bbl Brent at the low end.

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(edited)

10 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

US oil supply keeping lid on prices despite global risks: IEA chief

Growth in US oil production has kept prices at "reasonable levels" despite the recent oil tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and other supply risks around the world, International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said.

"There is substantial amount of oil coming from the United States, which puts a strong ceiling on oil prices," Birol said in an interview Friday on the sidelines of the G20 energy ministerial meetings in Karuizawa, Japan.

"Growth from the United States is a welcome addition to oil markets, especially looking at from an oil security point of view and looking at affordability for oil importers, including Japan, Korea and other Asian importers."

The IEA's June Oil Market Report forecast non-OPEC supply growth will rise to 2.3 million b/d in 2020, from 1.9 million b/d this year amid a surge in US shale and strong output from Brazil and Norway as new fields start up.

"According to our numbers, in five years' time, the United States will be the largest exporter in the world," Birol said.

"This is great news for consumers. Think about the fact we are seeing so many developments in the world: Venezuela, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and many [others]. Still, oil prices are staying at reasonable levels."

TANKER ATTACKS A WAKE-UP CALL

The alleged attack on two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz Thursday was a wake-up call to stakeholders in oil markets, Birol said.

"We are seriously concerned about the recent attacks, and we are monitoring the situation very closely in consultation with our member governments. We are ready to act if and when it is necessary."

The Front Altair and the Kokuka Courageous were carrying cargoes including naphtha. The incidents followed attacks on May 12 on four tankers near the bunkering port of Fujairah.

"Having lots of supply does not mean that oil security is not important, and this very important incident reminds all of us, all actors in the markets once again, how important an issue oil security is," Birol said.

The Strait of Hormuz was the most important oil choke point, especially for Asian energy importers, he said.

"Today about 18 million barrels of oil on a daily basis flows through this choke point coming from Saudi Arabia, emirates and other countries to China, Japan, India and other Asian customers."

"But at the same time it is a major route for LNG, liquefied natural gas. About 30% of LNG goes through this strait, coming again to Japan, South Korea, and other Asian countries."

Asked whether oil importers will need to seek alternative supplies away from regions so as not to have to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Birol said: "I think this will be a situation observed by oil importers, especially in this part of the world."

Birol said he did not expect a major shift in oil flows any time soon.

The tanker attacks and heightened supply risks came at a time of concerns about lower global oil demand growth.

Asked which was the biggest risk to the oil market, Birol said the IEA cut its oil demand growth forecast in its June report mainly because of a slowing in the global economy -- "not only the advanced economy, but [also] the emerging countries. Chinese economic growth prospects are much lower than previously thought".

The IEA cut its 2019 oil growth again to 1.2 million b/d, but it sees 2020 growth of 1.4 million b/d on petrochemical demand.

Many other areas of the world would be wise to step up their competition for the Asian market. The United States, Russia, The Stans, Nigeria, Australia, Canada, East Africa etc. The Middle East should be very worried and seek peace and cooperation. 

Edited by ronwagn

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2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Many other areas of the world would be wise to step up their competition for the Asian market. The United States, Nigeria, Australia, Canada, East Africa etc. The Middle East should be very worried and seek peace and cooperation. 

Canada needs to clean up their own backyard and front yard before they can consider making a dent in world demand and price stabilisation and energy security measures. Nigeria is bogged down in its own "swamp wars " and corruption. Australia has a very good shot and they are successful and need a more stable and focused Gov. that backs the industry overall. East Africa is exporting some LNG but they are ways off from serious world supply. The folks (regimes) in the Mid-East should get over their ancient hatred and rivalries and come together under some form of cooperation between the two camps Shiites and Sunnis (easier said than done) , even if only driven by mutual greed of oil money.

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12 hours ago, damirUSBiH said:

The blasts detonated far from the bustling megacities of Asia, but the attack this week on two tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz hits at the heart of this region’s oil-import-dependent economies - said AP agency in their article. While the violence only directly jolted two countries in the region — one of the targeted ships was operated by a Tokyo-based company; a nearby South Korean-operated vessel helped rescue sailors — it will unnerve major economies throughout Asia. Officials, analysts and media commentators on Friday hammered home the importance of the Strait of Hormuz for Asia, calling it a crucial lifeline, and there was deep interest in for more details about the still sketchy attack and in what the United States and Iran would do in the aftermath. In the end, whether Asia shrugs it off, as some analysts predict, or its economies shudder as a result, the attack highlights the widespread worries here over an extreme reliance on a single strip of water for the oil that fuels much of the region’s shared progress.

The other targeted ship belonged to Taiwan. 

One thing you're not likely to see is a mainland China ship being targeted. Iran may be crazy, but they're not stupid

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