Trudeau approves Trans Mountain Pipeline

Better late than never - Trans Mountain Pipeline is approved.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-trans-mountain-pipeline-wherry-1.5179626

Interesting to see if and when it'll be built and how change in heavy oil supply (required component for blending with LTO) will affect the market. Anas AlHadji on twitter opined that it'll be substituted with more expensive oil from Middle East.

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Curt S. nailed it ^

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I am fairly certain that Trudeau and AOC attended the same school of finance.

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I predict it will never be built.  too many Indians  (OK, "First Nations") along that route, each one will bankrupt the government for ransoms to cross their lands, court cases will be up and down to the Canadian Supreme Court for years. Someone once calculated that there were over 100 individual tribes that would have to be negotiated with. 

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Canada to create ripples in LPG market with first propane export terminal

Canada’s first propane export terminal – RIPET – has become operational, augmenting global LPG supplies. The entry of the country as a new LPG supplier and the strategic location of the terminal will favour exports to Asia and provide an opportunity for Canada to garner a good share of the Asian LPG market.

Canada’s first propane export terminal – Altagas’s Ridley Island Export Terminal (RIPET) – dispatched its first cargo on 23 May 2019 aboard the VLGC – Sumire Gas – for delivery to Japan’s Kyushu LPG Fukushima terminal.

With the commencement of operations at RIPET, the total voyage time on a Prince Rupert to Chiba tradewill be just 10 days, compared with 25 days for a voyage between Houston and Chiba, via the the Panama Canal. Hence RIPET has the potential to have a l negative impact on LPG tonne-mile demand.

Propane will reach the RIPET plant from gas fields via rail, which will then be processed and loaded onto vessels. The total capacity of the terminal is 1.2 million tonnes per annum, which translates to two VLGCs per month on average.

Given the favorable geographic location and lower price, RIPET will benefit Asian customers as well as Canada’s propane industry, which earlier depended on the US exports. Canada’s share in LPG seaborne trade will increase with the commencement of exports from RIPET, and consequently, the country will try to cater to the biggest LPG consumers.

A rise in Canadian LPG production will also impact Asian LPG imports from other regions. In our view lower shipping costs and increased competitiveness of Canadian LPG with that of the US and Middle East will favour the former.

The opening of the RIPET facility will also be of benefit to China, which is actively seeking different sources of LPG with the recent escalation in the US-China trade war. With the 25% tariff slapped on US propane exports, there were a few Chinese players which opted for imports of small parcels of Canadian LPG through Petrogas Ferndale’s export terminal in the US in January 2019. In addition, Japan’s Astomos Energy – a major LPG importer – entered into a multi-year contract in 2017 for importing 50% of the output from RIPET.

Although RIPET is important we do not expect major changes in demand for VLGCs as the VLGCs Sumire Gas and Maple Gas (recently delivered), which are on time charter with Astomos Energy, will be the only vessels used to transport propane from the Canadian terminal in the short term. However, we do expect RIPET to have an impact on LPG pricing, as it will lead to an increase in the outflow of Canadian and US LPG supplies, thereby strengthening West Canada and Mont Belvieu LPG prices.
Source: Drewry Maritime Research

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I agree with you Jan. In the last week the Canadian government has rejected most of the changes to Bill C-69 which will stall or halt future large scale projects in energy infrastructure, moved ahead with Bill C-48 which bans tankers over 12,500 metric tonnes (12,300 Imperial tonnes) from stopping along B.C’s northern coast, declared a “Climate Emergency” and, oh yes, approved the twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. The message is clear – Canada is closed for business. It is best summed up by Conservative MP Shannon Stubbs who in debating Bill C-69 said:

“Bill C-69 would not provide certainty or clarity for investors. It would actually create duplication between federal and provincial reviews. It would politicize decisions by granting extensive opportunities for political and ideological interference instead of grounding decisions on science, facts and evidence, and on the technical and economic merits of individual proposals. It would implement open-ended timelines and vague criteria for major resource projects and crucial infrastructure. It would potentially expose all kinds of resource development that is within provincial jurisdiction to federal reviews. It would drive jobs, businesses and investment out of Canada and into competing countries, like the United States, and so many other countries with much lower environmental standards and performance than Canada.”

While we in Canada cannot build 980 kms (608 miles) of pipeline along an existing route (!) to increase capacity from 300,000 bpd to 890,000 bpd, the U.S. has built 12,000 miles (19,300 kms) of pipelines since 2010 (Financial Post, 2015) and has approved three pipelines over the past three years (the Epic Crude Oil Pipeline, the PSX Gray Oak pipeline and PAA Cactus 2 pipeline) to carry 2.4 million bpd to the Gulf Coast from Texas.  Since 2016, capital spending in the U.S. has increased by 38 percent while it has decreased in Canada by 19% (Financial Post, 2019). As the U.S. forges ahead towards energy independence, Canadians squabble amongst ourselves and squander billions in revenues. All in the name of “Green”.

I gotta tell you, I’m tired of this, I’m pissed off and I’m not alone in Alberta. Hey USA, I hear you’re lookin’ for a 51st state! Na, just kiddin’!!

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