North Korea - A Ticking Time Bomb

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Guest Black Hole

(edited)

I am growing increasingly skeptical of geopolitical analysts who are driving a narrative of "strategy" when it comes to North Korea's actions and specifically U.S. responses.

During the nuclear arms race in the Cold War there was a general consensus that no amount of grand standing would push either government to initiate a process of Mutually Assured Destruction - There appears to be a significant difference with the grandstanding we are seeing now. I am eager to be convinced otherwise - but with these tensions escalating I am not hopeful that 2018 will be disaster free. An oil embargo could well be the straw that breaks the camel's back for Kim... https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Asks-China-To-Cut-Off-Oil-Supply-To-North-Korea.html 

Edited by Black Hole

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(edited)

North Korean leaders will not want to anger China more than necessary... therefore: <30 %

Edited by TomTom

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Guest Black Hole

Kim is a madman, and madmen cannot be predicted or reasoned with. He is not afraid of China or the US, although he should be. At some point, his unchecked anctions will force someone's hand.

And then... tick tick... 

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When we think of Kim at all, we probably need to be thinking in terms of self-preservation, and this is where geopolitical analysts get it wrong. When you hold an entire population hostage and your power is based on fear alone, it is that much more difficult to preserve your power and your actions must be grand. He has to present monstrous enemies to his people in order to preserve his power. An oil embargo will tip him over the edge in the art of self-preservation. 

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yeah, and it doesn't help to have other world leaders baiting him on his level, though this probably aides Kim in his 'self-preservation' @Kate Turlington

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The New York Times is saying that Tillerson is set to be replaced as Sec of State by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who would lead us into war against Iran and North Korea. 

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Kinda makes you wonder who exactly is the 'ticking time bomb' here ...

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Kim JU is crazy enough and aware of the nuclear-rocket potential and he has no fear to go to war. Can his missiles roll to the USA, no one knows for sure, but I have no doubt that South Korea and Japan would be in direct impact and probably razed to the ground. That is why this is a dangerous story about  ratting weapons. Rex Tillerson tried to point this out several times, and today he is at the White House exit door .... It's very similar to the story with the Iranians, and then we come to what is called the Third (nuclear) World War.

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