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[Falcon + 222]

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Edited July 27, 2019 by Falcon

[James Regan + 1,776]

The USA has very much of an Interest in the The Middle East from the obvious oil position and protection of assets to the threat of Nuclear weapons, counter terrorism and instability in the region where Russia are ready to jump in.

Lets not forget the USS Golan Heights the biggest air craft carrier in the world, placing the USA strategically in the region.

Arms sales to KSA and the list goes on why the USA cannot just get out.

But a war there would certainly benefit US regional oil production.

[Jon#2 + 22]

It looks to me that Iran refuse to go silently into the night. Trump may be faced with a choice of either going to war, withdraw the sanctions.or let Iran continue with these provocations which can get more severe later on. What is he going to do if Iran follows through on their threat of enriching weapons grade uranium?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

This thread starts with the headline:  "Iran downs US drone. No military response"

Why is this so startling?  The US sends a spy drone to go take a look at what the Iranians are up to  (not much of a surprise there), and the Iranians go take a shot at it, get lucky, wing the bird, and down it goes.  Again no big surprise - after you get past the shooting part of hitting the bird.  Let's remember something:  The USA has no business sending spy drones over other countries.  If you do that, then don't be surprised that somebody takes umbrage and tries to knock it down.  Going back some 50 years, the Russians were infuriated that the US had developed that U-2 high-level spy plane that flew up beyond their air power reach, and could travel over several thousand miles of Soviet territory with impunity. So the Russians knocked themselves out developing an ultra-high-altitude interceptor missile, knocked down Francis Gary Powers, and the rest is history.  The US can do it today with the Blackbird SR-71, but nobody much bothers as satellites have made those manned flights obsolete. 

Today those spy drones, and their cousins the assassination drones, are cheap enough to build and operate and can drop a bomb right through some open window and into the bedroom of any foreigner the US wants to go assassinate, and do it with complete impunity.  Now, that prospect is going to make adversaries rather jumpy.  You have to expect that the targets are going to do their damnest to knock those birds down.  Another good reason not to have a live pilot on board. 

Nobody is going to start a shooting war over some spy drone.  They just send up another one, and the game continues. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 minutes ago, Jon#2 said:

What is he going to do if Iran follows through on their threat of enriching weapons grade uranium?

Nothing. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

[wrs + 893]

Maybe they didn't just get lucky.  They have shot down US drones in the past as well as taking them over by electronic spoofing.  It is likely the case that US drones really can't operate over Iran because they have effective countermeasures.  If you look at the modest success the Houthis have been seeing with their attack drones then you get the idea that Iran may be on an equal footing with the US as far as drone technology goes.  The US sources the KSA air defense systems that failed to stop the cruise missile that attacked the airport in KSA and also the drones that hit the pipeline.  

I would think also that the oil shorts butts should be pretty puckered up about now.

 

BTW, I just heard this drone cost $180m.

Edited June 20, 2019 by wrs

[NickW + 2,714]

27 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

Assuming the drone was over Iranian Airspace this is basically saying - we won't respect anyone else's airspace.

I wonder what the US response would be if Iran started flying drones into US airspace?

Edited June 20, 2019 by NickW

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

22 minutes ago, wrs said:

BTW, I just heard this drone cost $180m.

Those guys sell that hardware to the military for whatever they can get.  They have no shame.

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Those guys sell that hardware to the military for whatever they can get.  They have no shame.

Iran is getting good at shooting down US Drones. The tab must be heading towards the $1 billion mark.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

2 minutes ago, NickW said:

Iran is getting good at shooting down US Drones. The tab must be heading towards the $1 billion mark.

$ 189 million  is the unit cost counting the R&D. But the US is selling 6 MQ-4C triton drone to Australia for 5 billions US$. That's close to a 1 billion unit cost.

 

 

https://www.janes.com/article/87481/australia-to-acquire-second-mq-4c-triton-uav

[James Regan + 1,776]

The cost of these drones varies depends on support for spares etc valued from 100-200Million USD per unit.

130ft wing span bigger than Boeing 737 these things are big!

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/Triton/Pages/default.aspx

 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Where did the downed drone crash ?

If it's well inside the Iranian territory it will be hard to defend it was shot on international waters.

By the way it could help he  Iranians to better know the US drones technology.

 

[Falcon + 222]

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Edited July 27, 2019 by Falcon

[James Regan + 1,776]

Bolton and Pompeo have the nuts to retaliate but DT I don’t believe could handle it.

The Iranians are seriously tooled up and well trained, this being said how far are the US prepared to let this go. It’s time to take a 💩 or get off the pot.

[James Regan + 1,776]

[Falcon + 222]

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Edited July 27, 2019 by Falcon

[wrs + 893]

Retaliation might be a problem as Iran just demonstrated the capability to shoot down our best spy drones with a truck based missile system.  That doesn't bode well for getting surveillance prior to any attack.  Going in blind isn't advisable.  Trump is in a tough spot here.

[Falcon + 222]

On 6/20/2019 at 11:52 AM, wrs said:

Retaliation might be a problem as Iran just demonstrated the capability to shoot down our best spy drones with a truck based missile system.  That doesn't bode well for getting surveillance prior to any attack.  Going in blind isn't advisable.  Trump is in a tough spot here.

I think Trump takes out their missile installations.  Then its Irans move.  I think foolish but I guess its Game On ! Trump can't help himself.

Bolton probably going to Israel to discuss US support if / when Israel goes after Iran enrichment facilities. 

Does Iran rethink their position ?  Only 25% probability.

Let's see if our NATO "allies" support U.S. sanctions.  They won't  . . . . just put 25% tariff on Merkel's car parts she exports to U.S. assembly plants now.

Edited June 26, 2019 by Falcon

[wrs + 893]

6 minutes ago, Falcon said:

I think Trump takes out their missile installations.  Maybe some of their navy. Then its Irans move.  I think foolish but I guess its Game On !

Bolton probably going to Israel to discuss US support if / when Israel goes after Iran enrichment facilities. 

Does Iran rethink their position ?  Only 25% probability.

Let's see if our NATO "allies" support us.  They won't  . . . . just put tariff on Merkel's car parts now. 

Well if they are truck based it will be hard to do but they have to find out where the telemetry was coming from that shot the drone down.  If the pilots knew the drone was lit up then they should have some information about the source of the targeting system.  I have a hard time believing a truck based system has a good enough radar to track a small target that high but the article says the system can shoot missiles up to 18 miles high, just wonder how accurate they are.  

[Falcon + 222]

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Edited July 27, 2019 by Falcon

[James Regan + 1,776]

Trump gives himself some wiggle room by saying he thinks it was a rogue element within Iran, if that’s the case the rogue element is the IRGC as the Chief of the IRGC gave the official response. 

So is the problem Iran or the IRGC?

IRGC want regime change as do the USA so Trumps reply saying it was probably a mistake (and they regret it) sounds like BS and Trumps lack of apetite to act on threats.

 

[Jeff_Calgary + 68]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

The US should have stuck to the agreement. The average age in Iran is around 22. The old guard is leaving soon by attrition and Trump is trying hard to alienate the young folks now. They would prefer to slowly get along with the west.

[Falcon + 222]

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Edited July 27, 2019 by Falcon

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

7 hours ago, James Regan said:

Lets not forget the USS Golan Heights the biggest air craft carrier in the world, placing the USA strategically in the region.

From now on, that's how I refer to Israel.  🤣