Iran downs US old tech drone.. . The Economic Sanctions Working

(edited)

Looks like Iran will wait to see if new administration gets elected 2020.  Probably hoping Biden wins and continues Obama policies.

15 months to wait.

In the meantime : 15 month wait X 2mil bbls/day X $65 bbl = $58.5 Billion lost revenues that won't be going toward Revolutionary Guard or other terrorist activities.

China probably waits also.

Trump took the Chinese bait as I expected. Trump caved on Hauwei and additional $300 Billion tariffs for a photo op with his good friend Kim Jinping.

Does Trump understand China will never let Kim sign a deal until they get a trade deal that they want. 

His ego gets in the way.

China laughing at Trump's inexperience.

The regular population of Iran are good people.  My dentist is from Iran.  She's great.  

If the general Iranian population doesn't want change . . . .  Change will never happen in Iran.  

The plus side is Iran sanctions keeping 2 mm bbls/day off the market.  Good for US shale.  So I say keep sanctions on. Every day without agreement is 2mm more Iranian oil that will be stranded.

Opportunity Lost.

450 days to election X 2 mm bbls X $65  = $58.5 Billion less available to support their terrorist activity.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Falcon
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The USA has very much of an Interest in the The Middle East from the obvious oil position and protection of assets to the threat of Nuclear weapons, counter terrorism and instability in the region where Russia are ready to jump in.

Lets not forget the USS Golan Heights the biggest air craft carrier in the world, placing the USA strategically in the region.

Arms sales to KSA and the list goes on why the USA cannot just get out.

But a war there would certainly benefit US regional oil production.

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It looks to me that Iran refuse to go silently into the night. Trump may be faced with a choice of either going to war, withdraw the sanctions.or let Iran continue with these provocations which can get more severe later on. What is he going to do if Iran follows through on their threat of enriching weapons grade uranium?

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10 minutes ago, Jon#2 said:

What is he going to do if Iran follows through on their threat of enriching weapons grade uranium?

Nothing. 

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Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

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(edited)

Maybe they didn't just get lucky.  They have shot down US drones in the past as well as taking them over by electronic spoofing.  It is likely the case that US drones really can't operate over Iran because they have effective countermeasures.  If you look at the modest success the Houthis have been seeing with their attack drones then you get the idea that Iran may be on an equal footing with the US as far as drone technology goes.  The US sources the KSA air defense systems that failed to stop the cruise missile that attacked the airport in KSA and also the drones that hit the pipeline.  

I would think also that the oil shorts butts should be pretty puckered up about now.

 

BTW, I just heard this drone cost $180m.

Edited by wrs
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(edited)

27 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

Assuming the drone was over Iranian Airspace this is basically saying - we won't respect anyone else's airspace.

I wonder what the US response would be if Iran started flying drones into US airspace?

Edited by NickW
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22 minutes ago, wrs said:

BTW, I just heard this drone cost $180m.

Those guys sell that hardware to the military for whatever they can get.  They have no shame.

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2 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Those guys sell that hardware to the military for whatever they can get.  They have no shame.

Iran is getting good at shooting down US Drones. The tab must be heading towards the $1 billion mark.

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2 minutes ago, NickW said:

Iran is getting good at shooting down US Drones. The tab must be heading towards the $1 billion mark.

$ 189 million  is the unit cost counting the R&D. But the US is selling 6 MQ-4C triton drone to Australia for 5 billions US$. That's close to a 1 billion unit cost.

 

 

https://www.janes.com/article/87481/australia-to-acquire-second-mq-4c-triton-uav

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Where did the downed drone crash ?

If it's well inside the Iranian territory it will be hard to defend it was shot on international waters.

By the way it could help he  Iranians to better know the US drones technology.

 

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(edited)

Trump just tweeted , "Iran made a Big Mistake. they're going to be sorry".  Iran playing Trump like a fiddle. He took the bait.

Iran wants Trump to retaliate. Big mistake.

You don't tweet about national security.

Trump, save your tweets for "sleepy Joe" and your campaign rhetoric . . . Not national security.

What a dolt.

Edited by Falcon
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Bolton and Pompeo have the nuts to retaliate but DT I don’t believe could handle it.

The Iranians are seriously tooled up and well trained, this being said how far are the US prepared to let this go. It’s time to take a 💩 or get off the pot.

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369237C5-394F-4B3E-AE69-3C3FF57E44DA.jpeg

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(edited)

On 6/20/2019 at 11:17 AM, James Regan said:

Bolton and Pompeo have the nuts to retaliate but DT I don’t believe could handle it.

The Iranians are seriously tooled up and well trained, this being said how far are the US prepared to let this go. It’s time to take a 💩 or get off the pot.

TRUMP Sending Bolton to Israel.  Looks like war mongers own Trump. I thought Trump wanted out of Mideast snakepit.

Edited by Falcon

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Retaliation might be a problem as Iran just demonstrated the capability to shoot down our best spy drones with a truck based missile system.  That doesn't bode well for getting surveillance prior to any attack.  Going in blind isn't advisable.  Trump is in a tough spot here.

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(edited)

On 6/20/2019 at 11:52 AM, wrs said:

Retaliation might be a problem as Iran just demonstrated the capability to shoot down our best spy drones with a truck based missile system.  That doesn't bode well for getting surveillance prior to any attack.  Going in blind isn't advisable.  Trump is in a tough spot here.

I think Trump takes out their missile installations.  Then its Irans move.  I think foolish but I guess its Game On ! Trump can't help himself.

Bolton probably going to Israel to discuss US support if / when Israel goes after Iran enrichment facilities. 

Does Iran rethink their position ?  Only 25% probability.

Let's see if our NATO "allies" support U.S. sanctions.  They won't  . . . . just put 25% tariff on Merkel's car parts she exports to U.S. assembly plants now.

Edited by Falcon
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6 minutes ago, Falcon said:

I think Trump takes out their missile installations.  Maybe some of their navy. Then its Irans move.  I think foolish but I guess its Game On !

Bolton probably going to Israel to discuss US support if / when Israel goes after Iran enrichment facilities. 

Does Iran rethink their position ?  Only 25% probability.

Let's see if our NATO "allies" support us.  They won't  . . . . just put tariff on Merkel's car parts now. 

Well if they are truck based it will be hard to do but they have to find out where the telemetry was coming from that shot the drone down.  If the pilots knew the drone was lit up then they should have some information about the source of the targeting system.  I have a hard time believing a truck based system has a good enough radar to track a small target that high but the article says the system can shoot missiles up to 18 miles high, just wonder how accurate they are.  

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(edited)

On 6/20/2019 at 12:07 PM, wrs said:

Well if they are truck based it will be hard to do but they have to find out where the telemetry was coming from that shot the drone down.  If the pilots knew the drone was lit up then they should have some information about the source of the targeting system.  I have a hard time believing a truck based system has a good enough radar to track a small target that high but the article says the system can shoot missiles up to 18 miles high, just wonder how accurate they are.  

Can't get the mobile missiles. But to hit the drone at that elevation requires sophisticated radar.  The only question is when ?  Does US wait till after Bolton meets with Israel or go tonight ?

 

 

Edited by Falcon

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Trump gives himself some wiggle room by saying he thinks it was a rogue element within Iran, if that’s the case the rogue element is the IRGC as the Chief of the IRGC gave the official response. 

So is the problem Iran or the IRGC?

IRGC want regime change as do the USA so Trumps reply saying it was probably a mistake (and they regret it) sounds like BS and Trumps lack of apetite to act on threats.

 

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4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Pompeo quoted any attack on US assets would be considered acts of aggression and would have consequences.

I don’t think the US had the stomach to take on Iran, it would be a completely different game to taking on Iraq or ISIS etc.

Very complicated situation too risky.

The US should have stuck to the agreement. The average age in Iran is around 22. The old guard is leaving soon by attrition and Trump is trying hard to alienate the young folks now. They would prefer to slowly get along with the west.

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(edited)

On 6/20/2019 at 1:12 PM, James Regan said:

Trump gives himself some wiggle room by saying he thinks it was a rogue element within Iran, if that’s the case the rogue element is the IRGC as the Chief of the IRGC gave the official response. 

So is the problem Iran or the IRGC?

IRGC want regime change as do the USA so Trumps reply saying it was probably a mistake (and they regret it) sounds like BS and Trumps lack of apetite to act on threats.

 

Yes, looks like he is giving them an out. Probably with conditions.

1. Admit someone made a mistake and mistakenly thought drone was over their territory.

2. Stop enrichment of uranium , keep under amount of previous agreement. 

3. Come to negotiating table. 

Thank God. Looks like he's come to his senses. No military needed.

Edited by Falcon

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7 hours ago, James Regan said:

Lets not forget the USS Golan Heights the biggest air craft carrier in the world, placing the USA strategically in the region.

From now on, that's how I refer to Israel.  🤣

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