Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House

[James Regan + 1,776]

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

On the old Oilpro forum, people were required to use their real names, and were expected to fill in their expetience, profile, projects worked on, etc.  That way, if someone was discussing, say, drilling, others could check that person's profile to see if he had experience in drilling.  If no experience, that person's comments would generally be taken far less seriously than someone who had 10 years experience in drilling.

I simply tried to bring that culture of openness to this forum when I first started commenting here.

And I bolded above my "moderator" advice, but posted the entire "About Me" section, for the benefit of lurkers, who cannot access the "About Me" section of member profiles without being a registered member here.

That moderator advice was written as a generic catch-all which I could trot out if someone gets to be a persistent jerk in not allowing dissent by others.

Tom what's the problem with making every user use their name? Is this a commercial drive by OP to get more users? If you are in fact in the business have been and have a good name then why wouldn't you want to use it?

Hats off for the CV others see this kind of transparency as a threat on privacy or maybe some kind of liberal threat to civil liberties, we see so much by users now on Op about transparency in the markets, so money where mouth is time.

Talk the Talk, but don't (and have maybe never) Walk the Walk...

Edited September 2, 2019 by James Regan

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

39 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Tom what's the problem with making every user use their name?

This was my suggestion to Oil Price staff long ago.  Oilpro and LinkedIn required users to use their real names, not pseudonyms.

 

39 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Is this a commercial drive by OP to get more users?

Nope, using real names was my own suggestion to Oil Price, nothing to do with membership numbers.

I have no issue with being anonymous or using pseudonyms.  But logically, on a business or industry forum (LinkedIn for example) it makes sense to me to use one's real name.

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

This was my suggestion to Oil Price staff long ago.  Oilpro and LinkedIn required users to use their real names, not pseudonyms.

 

Nope, using real names was my own suggestion to Oil Price, nothing to do with membership numbers.

 

Then I don't see why this platform should be any different , linked in is a mediocre  source at times but basically a recruiting platform and luke warm at best.

Why don't OilPrice start a thread on suggestions and take the consensus, the "Introduce yourself" thread is good but rarely used. This forum just by views shown on each thread shows the amount of registered users but they do not comment?

Same people starting threads and following up, we need to make it less daunting or maybe its just good reading for some folks, entertaining at times, which is not a bad thing either. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Just now, James Regan said:

Then I don't see why this platform should be any different , linked in is a mediocre  source at times but basically a recruiting platform and luke warm at best.

Why don't OilPrice start a thread on suggestions and take the consensus, the "Introduce yourself" thread is good but rarely used. This forum just by views shown on each thread shows the amount of registered users but they do not comment?

Same people starting threads and following up, we need to make it less daunting or maybe its just good reading for some folks, entertaining at times, which is not a bad thing either. 

Good suggestion, I'll alert Oil Price staff (I'm just a "power user" cum volunteer moderator here, and am not Oil Price staff).

@CMOP  @Selvedina

[James Regan + 1,776]

29 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Good suggestion, I'll alert Oil Price staff (I'm just a "power user" cum volunteer moderator here, and am not Oil Price staff).

@CMOP  @Selvedina

Easy fix add a subscription fee for the community or limit text based on time spent within the forum based on content quality, other forums do.

Add some form of earning your position, not just post like a madman to get exposure and inflate ego, maybe I'm being a capitalist now, God forbid.....

Edited September 2, 2019 by James Regan

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

27 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Easy fix add a subscription fee for the community or limit text based on time spent within the forum based on content quality, other forums do.

Probably not the best idea.  I generally encourage others to post more, not less.  And any subscription fees would likely kill the forum.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

China is playing victim, blaming Trump for breaking his promise (outright lie) while China has once again broken their promise.

 

/ side note, some pics from the protesters in Hong Kong against the Chinese government. The China swastika flag is ... interesting.

 

Anyway, you know the drill ... excerpt below, full article in the link:

Panda Games – China Files WTO Complaint Against U.S. Tariffs

After benefiting from ridiculous preferential treatment by the World Trade Organization under “emerging nation” status for the past two decades, Beijing now turns to the WTO and files a complaint against the U.S. over recent tariffs and countervailing duties.

 

The substance to Beijing’s complaint is silly.  China claims there was a “leadership agreement” during the Osaka G20 summit not to apply additional tariffs.  However, the latest round of U.S. tariffs on China were in response to Chinese tariffs applied after Osaka.  Bottom line, Beijing is playing political games.

China, once again playing the wounded panda routine, is trying to set up a narrative that President Trump has broken his word.  That’s the cornerstone of their position, and they know such a complaint won’t go anywhere at the WTO; the complaint is really for the use, exploitation, and consumption by President Trump’s political opposition, domestic and international.  ...

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

26 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

/ side note, some pics from the protesters in Hong Kong against the Chinese government. The China swastika flag is ... interesting.

That is fascinating.  It certainly shows a deep resentment.  That is the kind of bitterness that is not going away any time soon. 

You have to wonder if Hong Kong is going to break away and receive some form of autonomous status.  Personally, I think the China Government would have been better off to have renewed the British lease on the place, it would have given China an open window to the West and an open corridor to Western banking capital.   In lots of cases, those governments do things that are not in their best interests. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Once again, those struggling for liberty look to the Americans for inspiration. Check out that graffiti spray-painted on the wall in Hong Kong:  "Give me Liberty or give me Death!"  That is from Patrick Henry, a resolute American patriot and revolutionary. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Part 1 of 2 today. 

tl;dr: There will be no U.S-China trade deal.

 

First, from Conservative Tree House:

More Panda/Wall Street Head-Faking: Beijing Announces October Trade Talks With U.S. Delegation

CTH readers are well versed in the dynamics of the Panda mask -vs- Dragon motives of China.  Therefore we are able to discuss events without the MSM financial filter; which is narrated specifically to the benefit of multinational interests.  Always keep that in mind.

Everything needed to understand the latest panda narrative from Beijing is identified in this simple paragraph:

(Beijing) […] The talks were supposed to have resumed this month but China’s commerce ministry said Vice Premier Liu He, Beijing’s pointman on trade, agreed to October in a phone call with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday. (more)

First, anything from Vice Premier Liu He is panda-speak; he is a tool in the process of Chinese narrative engineering.  All former trade negotiation authority held by Liu He was stripped by Chairman Xi Jinping.  Commerce Minister Zhong Shan is the real voice of Xi and the Beijing authority.

Second, what exactly is Beijing selling?  An “October phone call”…. and that manipulates markets for the multinationals on Wall Street.  A friggin’ announcement of a phone call?

 

Beijing is attempting to stop the financial bleed; the organization and planning of exits from the Chinese manufacturing system.  Notice the U.S. media ran to the typeset pushing quoted reports from Beijing, not quoting reports from the USTR office or U.S. trade team.  Again, the quote from the Associated Foreign Press (AFP):

…”China and the United States will resume trade talks in Washington in early October, Beijing said on Thursday”…

President Trump will not block, refute or diminish, this specifically sold Beijing narrative because it increases the U.S. stock market valuation.  However, no-one who really pays attention to the dance should put any weight behind the announcement.  It’s pure panda.

The U.S. position is the same.  U.S. interests doing business in China should ‘get out’.  Those who choose to remain in China; and/or those who choose to join with Beijing in selling false-hope in a temporary effort to prop up their multinational stock values; will eventually run into the brick wall of reality.

We can discuss this here, because the dance has been so visible for so long we know the music before it plays…. ie. ‘conduct your affairs accordingly’.

Today’s jump in the stock market; the part centered around this announcement from Beijing; is based on a false premise.

Beijing is bleeding cash.  Beijing is attempting to get to 2020 and will deploy all resources to eliminate President Trump.  Beijing is trying to save their economic model and stop the exodus from their manufacturing base.

There will be no U.S-China trade deal.

Any U.S. corporation who makes a decision based on the false-hope implied in the Chinese messaging is going to hit a world of hurt when it all comes crashing down.

Don’t expect any sympathies from these pages.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Part 2 of 2 today.  Excellent analysis by an independent observer:

The News that Matters: 5/9/19

Bharat Petroleum has snapped up one or two cargoes of U.S. crude that was originally en route to China. Following the entry into effect of a 5% tariff on U.S. oil imports, the vessel was diverted from its original course.

The news report tells us two things: first, Chinese refiners and commodity traders are finding even a 5% tariff on U.S. oil imports too steep to accept. There was an earlier indication of this, when Sinopec reportedly asked Beijing for a waiver from the tariff, so it can continue importing U.S. crude without paying more for it.

Secondly, however, this is good news for U.S. oil: the fact the cargo was bought so quickly suggests there is healthy demand for it, not least because of U.S. sanctions against Iran, which have reduced India’s access to comparable crude grades. If China can’t or won’t take U.S. crude for being too expensive, India will while the prices suits refiners.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

This update is gold, and hilariously proves how wrong Goldman Sachs is.  I chuckled repeatedly while reading this.

tl;dr  U.S. is winning the trade war against China, and Goldman proven both clueless and dead wrong

Read the full article here:

Goldman Sachs Analysis: Good Grief, Trump Might Be Serious About China

 

[Guest]

Haha, brilliant

What’s the takeaway?   Well first, Goldman Sachs controls hundreds-of-billions. Goldman is the predominant voice that all of the other Wall Street multinationals’ look toward.  Goldman is the incubator for almost all of the financial experts at the Fed. Goldman is also the baseline for all of the main Wall Street pundits….

Goldman is also 100% demonstrably wrong.

If you wonder why the Federal Reserve looks like they are running around with one foot nailed to the floorboard… well, look no further than Goldman Sach’s analysis.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

● ●  Recommended listening  ● ●

Steve Bannon Speaks About China

Former WH strategist, Steve Bannon, appears in DC at a “Clear and Present Danger China” event to discuss China.

The first half of the Bannon’s presentation reflects why he had to leave the white house; reactionary, influenced by media, vulnerable to fake news, and lacking stability.  However, the second half of the video reflects why Mr. Bannon was a valuable strategist.

[Video prompted to 06:26 – just hit play]

 

 

 

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Full video here.