Trump should move quickly!

[NickW + 2,714]

35 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

High oil prices would just hasten the move to natural gas vehicles. The current fleet of vehicles can all be converted. Converting to electric vehicles is not feasible. Natural gas vehicles can also be hybridized to use both gasoline and natural gas or diesel and natural gas for trucks. 

I'd like to have seen some CNG Hybrids - Prius, Corolla etc

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

High oil prices would just hasten the move to natural gas vehicles. The current fleet of vehicles can all be converted. Converting to electric vehicles is not feasible. Natural gas vehicles can also be hybridized to use both gasoline and natural gas or diesel and natural gas for trucks. 

I said 15 years ago London's buses should have channelled down the CNG route. That would have eliminated the particulates and halved the NOX output. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

I'd like to have seen some CNG Hybrids - Prius, Corolla etc

I really think the greatest benefit would be found in large vehicles like 18 wheelers, buses, pickups etc. I have a large van (Nissan NV3500) That could support 700 pounds on the roof. Pickup trucks could mount them above the bed with special racks also. That is where busses put them. Small cars can use small tanks of CNG and are often dual or triple fuel with gasoline, ethanol, diesel. See ngvglobal.com for examples. America is way behind in this field.

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/skoda-shows-natural-gas-powered-scala-g-tec-in-berlin-0628#more-112577

Edited July 5, 2019 by ronwagn
reference

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, NickW said:

I said 15 years ago London's buses should have channelled down the CNG route. That would have eliminated the particulates and halved the NOX output. 

Also would have made a lot of lives longer. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 7/5/2019 at 1:02 PM, ronwagn said:

I really think the greatest benefit would be found in large vehicles like 18 wheelers, buses, pickups etc. I have a large van (Nissan NV3500) That could support 700 pounds on the roof. Pickup trucks could mount them above the bed with special racks also. That is where busses put them. Small cars can use small tanks of CNG and are often dual or triple fuel with gasoline, ethanol, diesel. See ngvglobal.com for examples. America is way behind in this field.

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/skoda-shows-natural-gas-powered-scala-g-tec-in-berlin-0628#more-112577

I went out to Vancouver island again last month (it's heaven) and I noticed the ferry ran on natural gas.  Now that is a huge fuel guzzler I'm sure.

  https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ferries-upgrades-spirit-class-vessels-to-operate-on-natural-gas-1.4280211

Edited July 7, 2019 by Enthalpic

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 7/5/2019 at 1:02 PM, ronwagn said:

 

http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/skoda-shows-natural-gas-powered-scala-g-tec-in-berlin-0628#more-112577

1.0L 3-cylinder peaking at 89.8 horsepower (66KW) - that wouldn't even do the speed limit up any sort of hill.  I have a 1.5L Yaris and its 100Hp is barely enough with AC on (but awesome gas mileage).

[D Coyne + 305]

On 7/3/2019 at 2:13 PM, GSXRblur said:

Huh?  Not sure if you are serious.  Oil is a commodity and to echo others, it will go up and down.  Petroleum is used in tons of other things so it will not go away in most of our lifetimes.

Remember Kodak? How about United States Leather (one of the original 12 companies in the Dow)?

If someone has told me in 1996 that Kodak would sell off its photographic film business to emerge from chapter 11 bankruptcy to become a "technology" company in 2012, I would have thought they were delusional.  That was a period of 16 years.  So what happens to Exxon/Mobil in 2034?  Perhaps they will produce solar panels. 

Plugin personal vehicle sales have been growing at 55% per year. In 2018 sales worldwide were 2 million out of an 86 million personal vehicle market, only 2.3 % of total sales.  If the 55% annual growth rate continues, then 103 million plugin vehicles are sold in 2028, demand for oil starts to fall pretty quickly in that scenario (which is not realistic in my opinion), city buses in China have been switching rapidly to EVs and commercial trucking may start to ramp up in 2023 to 2025.  In addition if autonomous vehicles get regulatory approval then robotaxis may drive 60,000 miles per year and reduce the need for personal vehicles to only one fifth the current number (average miles driven in US is 12,000 miles per year).  I expect autonomous vehicles may become a reality by 2028.

Things can change very fast and those within the industry never see it coming.

[D Coyne + 305]

On 7/3/2019 at 9:14 PM, Old-Ruffneck said:

Yes, Trump likes low prices on finished oil products. Happy consumers when voting will remember he saved them some money. As far as the Tight Oil, well they playing a losing hand for a long time now. You reap what ya sow. Several hundred billion in debt and can't pay the interest. I thinks it's going to get ugly for that sector. The bankruptcies will start soon enough and who pays for that? The investors and hedge fund folks better start to feel the pucker factor. 

Oldruffneck,

If tight oil output decreases we may see higher oil prices, even if tight oil output remains on a plateau, if OPEC continues its cuts, oil prices will rise as supply will not meet demand at current oil prices.

Trump would be wise to look for the Goldilocks price of 65-70 for WTI, once chaos is created in the tight oil industry due to lack of profits from low oil prices, it might be difficult to recover quickly.

A scenario where US tight oil remains on a plateau it 7.5 Mb/d from 2019 to 2033 would result in a World C+C peak in 2022 in a scenario with constant extraction rates from conventional resources (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) from 2019- 2045.  Average output in 2022 would be 83.1 Mb/d in that scenario.

This model is different from my standard scenario which assumes oil prices rise enough to keep tight oil producers profitable so that tight oil peaks in 2025 at about 9.5 Mb/d, in that scenario World C+C peaks in 2025.

Edited July 8, 2019 by D Coyne

[D Coyne + 305]

On 7/6/2019 at 7:09 PM, Enthalpic said:

1.0L 3-cylinder peaking at 89.8 horsepower (66KW) - that wouldn't even do the speed limit up any sort of hill.  I have a 1.5L Yaris and its 100Hp is barely enough with AC on (but awesome gas mileage).

Just use AC going downhill. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

55 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Just use AC going downhill. 

Sadly, in the actual mountains I do!

I turn it off for the steep uphills just so I don't here the damn thing downshift and rev like crazy.

[D Coyne + 305]

Note that Mohr et al 2015 has a high estimate for natural gas ultimately recoverable resources(URR) of 34800 TCF, if we assume deep ocean gas hydrates never become economic.  If we assume the peak occurs at about 50% of URR for cumulative output and that natural gas is used as a substitute for depleting oil resources, then peak natural gas arrives in 2035.

If we assume the gas hydrates can be extracted profitably the URR estimate increases to 47560 TCF and the peak occurs in 2039 rather than 2035.  I have assumed demand for C+C continues to grow at 800 kb/d as it has from 1982 to 2018 over the 2019  to 2045 period but that NG is used as a substitute for oil.

 

Link to Mohr et al 2015 below

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016236114010254?via%3Dihub

Edited July 9, 2019 by D Coyne

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

1 hour ago, D Coyne said:

Oldruffneck,

If tight oil output decreases we may see higher oil prices, even if tight oil output remains on a plateau, if OPEC continues its cuts, oil prices will rise as supply will not meet demand at current oil prices.

Trump would be wise to look for the Goldilocks price of 65-70 for WTI, once chaos is created in the tight oil industry due to lack of profits from low oil prices, it might be difficult to recover quickly.

A scenario where US tight oil remains on a plateau it 7.5 Mb/d from 2019 to 2033 would result in a World C+C peak in 2022 in a scenario with constant extraction rates from conventional resources (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) from 2019- 2045.  Average output in 2022 would be 83.1 Mb/d in that scenario. 

This model is different from my standard scenario which assumes oil prices rise enough to keep tight oil producers profitable so that tight oil peaks in 2025 at about 9.5 Mb/d, in that scenario World C+C peaks in 2025.

Please re-read my post!!! Nowhere is there a mention of tight oil decrease. I merely stated that the outrageous debt is so far out of hand that they can't pay even the interest and who pays? Peak oil will be here sooner than ya think, I just read article South Americas EV's have increased 100% in a year. Might not be needing all the oil being produced. Though the article didn't mention how many units to increase to 100%, maybe a dozen cars increased to 24 hehehe.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 7/6/2019 at 7:09 PM, Enthalpic said:

1.0L 3-cylinder peaking at 89.8 horsepower (66KW) - that wouldn't even do the speed limit up any sort of hill.  I have a 1.5L Yaris and its 100Hp is barely enough with AC on (but awesome gas mileage).

Don't underestimate the engineering tradition at Skoda.  Those are seriously great cars  (not imported to the USA).  I think Skoda was bought up by Volkswagen, yet remains run as a separate entity.   At one time SAAB produced a sport version of what became their Model 99 and called it the Monte Carlo 850.  It was a little 3-cylinder two-cycle motor at 849 cc., specifically designed to be just under the 850 cc. limit in the USA that triggered all kinds of ridiculous bureaucrat rubbish from the USDOT.  Those machines were just fabulous, taut, fast, powerful, could roar around town and up hills, and for a machine like that, you didn't use air conditioning, you opened the windows and blasted in the airstream!  Remember: the size of engine displacement is not as big an impact as the curb weight.  Keep it light, and it will be fast with a one-liter motor. 

[D Coyne + 305]

50 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Please re-read my post!!! Nowhere is there a mention of tight oil decrease. I merely stated that the outrageous debt is so far out of hand that they can't pay even the interest and who pays? Peak oil will be here sooner than ya think, I just read article South Americas EV's have increased 100% in a year. Might not be needing all the oil being produced. Though the article didn't mention how many units to increase to 100%, maybe a dozen cars increased to 24 hehehe.

Sorry,

I got the misimpression that you thought tight oil companies were not doing well, the implication that I misread was that you therefore thought either they would remain at current output levels or possibly decrease, though in fact you did not say either of these things.  Yes at some point EVs might lead to a lack of demand though my guess is that will be after peak supply ( with high oil prices ) in 2024 to 2026 for my standard scenario, peak demand is unlikely to arrive before 2033 and my best guess is 2036-2038 where lack of demand for oil leads to falling oil prices as BEVs and possibly NGVs replace vehicles powered by gasoline or diesel.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Don't underestimate the engineering tradition at Skoda.  Those are seriously great cars  (not imported to the USA).  I think Skoda was bought up by Volkswagen, yet remains run as a separate entity.   At one time SAAB produced a sport version of what became their Model 99 and called it the Monte Carlo 850.  It was a little 3-cylinder two-cycle motor at 849 cc., specifically designed to be just under the 850 cc. limit in the USA that triggered all kinds of ridiculous bureaucrat rubbish from the USDOT.  Those machines were just fabulous, taut, fast, powerful, could roar around town and up hills, and for a machine like that, you didn't use air conditioning, you opened the windows and blasted in the airstream!  Remember: the size of engine displacement is not as big an impact as the curb weight.  Keep it light, and it will be fast with a one-liter motor. 

2 strokes made tons of power (and pollution).

Apparently if you drive fast enough AC is more fuel economical than opening the windows; as opening the windows reduces the aerodynamics of the car.