Oil Rises After Iran Says It Seized Foreign Tanker In Gulf

[rainman + 263]

Oil prices rose on Thursday after Iran said it had seized a foreign oil tanker in the Gulf amid rising tensions between Tehran and the West over the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital gateway for energy exports.Iran said the vessel, which it did not identify, was smuggling fuel and had been carrying 1 million liters, or around 6,200 barrels. It was captured near Iran’s Larak Island in the Gulf.Britain pledged to defend its shipping interests in the region, and U.S. Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said the United States would work “aggressively” to enable free passage after recent attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf. “The oil price reaction on Thursday shows once again that the conflict in the Middle East is far from solved and tensions could flare up at any time,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said

[Pavel + 384]

Parallel process: oil prices rise up while tanker wars heating up

[50 shades of black + 254]

Today 1 percent, if they close Hormuz we might be expecting the worst case scenario...

[joze44 + 39]

With these tensions on the Middle East, we are not far away from the $ 100 a barrel...

[James Regan + 1,776]

This may be a pivotal point for Iran and the Persian gulf, as we move ahead seeing US Oil weening off of Middle East oil the Iranians are losing leverage gained by rhetoric, this may be the last chance they get to take advantage of the choke point! 

Something will give and IMO this will escalate Iran is running out of options.

Edited July 18, 2019 by James Regan

[pinto + 293]

Some people are rubbing the hands ...

[francoba + 93]

5 minutes ago, joze44 said:

With these tensions on the Middle East, we are not far away from the $ 100 a barrel...

There is option: EV's

[ronwagn + 6,290]

10 hours ago, francoba said:

There is option: EV's

Or NGV's. There are presently five times as many NGV's as EV's , They have a proven track record and the existing fleet can be converted at at a reasonable price. It just requires a lot of trained and certified mechanics and the parts. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

The sanctions on Iran are far reaching, they really do have Iran by the short and curlies.

Two Iran-flagged vessels have been sitting idle at Brazilian ports for weeks because they need fuel to return to Iran, but Brazil’s Petrobras refuses to sell them fuel because of the U.S. sanctions on Iran that could also affect the Brazilian state energy firm listed in New York.

Iranian ships Bavand and Termeh traveled to Brazil earlier this year loaded with urea, a petrochemical product which is used as a fertilizer. After offloading the urea, the ships were planned to load corn from Brazil and return to Iran, officials at the Brazilian port operator at the Paranaguá told Reuters.

But the vessels don’t have enough fuel for the voyage back to Iran. The owner of the two ships, Iran’s state company, Sapid Shipping Co, has been trying, unsuccessfully, at local Brazilian courts to force bunker fuel supplier, Transpetro—a unit of Petrobras—to sell it fuel for the return trip, a source familiar with the issue told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Petrobras, for its part, fears that it could become a target of secondary U.S. sanctions if it or any of its subsidiaries were to deal with Iran-flagged ships. Petrobras is exposed to the U.S. financial system and markets because its shares are listed not only in Brazil, but also on the New York Stock Exchange.

“The vessels were included by the United States in the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN),” Petrobras said in a statement, as carried by Reuters.

Because it is listed on the NYSE and operates in the U.S., Petrobras could be subject to penalties or sanctions if it sold fuel to the Iranian ships, the Brazilian state-held energy firm added. 

The Iranian ships are stuck at Brazilian ports since no one is able to intermediate the sale of bunker fuel for them, a fertilizer trader with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. 

The last-resort solution would be Iran sending a ship with fuel from Iran to refuel the ships carrying corn, highlighting the extent to which the U.S. sanctions hit the Islamic Republic’s trade and economy.

[James Regan + 1,776]

British Tanker Seized in international waters and taken to Iranian waters CNN BREAKING NEWS

Confirmed by Iranian State Press

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 7/19/2019 at 10:35 AM, James Regan said:

The last-resort solution would be Iran sending a ship with fuel from Iran to refuel the ships carrying corn, highlighting the extent to which the U.S. sanctions hit the Islamic Republic’s trade and economy.

Another solution would be for the Iranian State-owned company to sell the ships to a third party, complete with a contract to carry the cargo of corn back to Iran.  The ships would at that point be flying a neutral flag  (say, Greek).  At that point the new shipowner could even re-sell the ships back to the Iranians!  If there is enough money placed on the table, it gets done.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 7/18/2019 at 9:23 AM, James Regan said:

Something will give and IMO this will escalate Iran is running out of options.

Not necessarily.  Iran can simply knuckle under to the demands of The Trump.  there is historical precedent for this.  When Iran was attacked and invaded by the Iraqis  (Saddam Hussein), the Iranians were able, after reeling back from the initial onslaught, to hold the Iraqi army to a standstill.  At that point the population advantage of Iran was brought to bear.  After great losses in the field, and with Saddam dug in behind flooded marshes, the Ayatollah did what he had vowed he would never do: sign a peace treaty with Saddam. 

There is no particular reason for the Ayatollahs to not do the same today:  give it up.  And they just might.    

[D Coyne + 305]

On 7/18/2019 at 8:00 PM, ronwagn said:

Or NGV's. There are presently five times as many NGV's as EV's , They have a proven track record and the existing fleet can be converted at at a reasonable price. It just requires a lot of trained and certified mechanics and the parts. 

Seems fueling would be a problem, I have never seen a natural gas refueling station, if you are talking about propane, I have seen those for my grill, but that is much more expensive than gasoline.

Any idea on the growth rate of NGVs?  Electric vehicles sales have been growing at a rate of about 50% per year and if the rate continues they would match current NGV numbers in less than 5 years.  Seems NGVs have grown at about 6% per year from 2017 to 2019, if that rate of growth continues, in 2023 we would have 36 million NGVs, while electric vehicles would be about 37.5 million.  I expect the cost of electric vehicles will fall, while natural gas prices worldwide will rise.

Also consider that a combined cycle NG power plant has roughly 60% efficiency, while a NGV ICE roughly 30%.  Probably will be cheaper to run a BEV using electricity produced in NG CC power plant than to use the natural gas directly, the EV is likely to have far lower maintenance costs than an ICE, electric motors are far simpler.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

You put forth good arguments and I don't mean to criticize electric vehicles. Natural gas will make most of the electricity for them anyway. Natural gas vehicles can be any scale from the largest to the smallest and conversions could be made economical as they are in pro NGV countries. I believe that the main hindrance here is that the oil industry would lose so many gasoline and diesel customers. Large trucks are the logical first choice for conversion or new purchases because they burn so much fuel. Pickup trucks with large engines are also good candidates. The current fuel savings is about a third of the price. There are plenty of service stations and companies can set up their own stations by tapping any natural gas pipe. Individuals usually can't yet because of the expense which is artificially increased. 

http://www.ngvglobal.com/

http://www.cngprices.com/station_map.php Plenty of stations now, except in many small cities. Home pumps would bring half of gasoline prices and no tax!