Trump Tears Down Market & Oil Price With His “China Tariffs Game” Again

[David Zernhelt + 6]

The Dow has crossed -600 today and oil price is plunging.  There’s my proof that Trump is doing all of this on purpose - using his “China Tariffs Game” to control the whole market.....but it benefits his investments ONLY.  Pelosi should have started Impeachment proceedings against Trump more than a year ago!!!!  She waited too long!!!!  

Edited August 5, 2019 by David Zernhelt

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

The PBOC has 3.2 trillion in treasury bills. As our central bankers lower rates, China makes a huge amount of money on their US forex. I don't think the geniuses who advise the president took this into consideration: this is China's insurance policy against disaster. Not only that but the yuan doesn't float in response to free market forces; the PBOC sets its value. Sure, that's currency manipulation, just as the president says, but we "manipulate" currency in our own way, by printing it, by changing the interest rates at will. I'm American, not Chinese, so I support our government in all things. However, every respected economist in the United States--and I don't include Peter Navarro in that esteemed group--says that nobody wins in a trade war; there are only losers. Our president took a gamble. Our uneasy relationship with China was actually in pretty decent equilibrium. Sure, they stole intellectual data, but mostly from the cloud storage people and Apple . . . and all of them seemed to be doing okay. Better than okay. We were exporting huge amounts of soybeans, corn and pork to China. And don't forget oil--this is, after all, an oil forum. Well, duh, President Xi has spent a lot of time on American farms: he knows that they represent our economic Achilles Heel. He also is quite aware of the oil market. He is willing to buy Iranian oil and they are eager to sell it at a discount. It's good oil, why not. Russia and Saudi Arabia are more than willing to top off the tank. Net/Net--we're in a bind here. It's a circular firing squad and there will be no man left standing. Everybody gets wounded. President Xi knows full well that if President Trump persists, increases tariffs to 25% while Xi blocks the purchase of US oil and gas, as well as soybeans and corn, then Mr. Trump will likely lose the soybean states that served as the swing states to put him into power, and he is even taking a calculated gamble that Texas--yes, Texas--will go to a Democrat. The Texas shale oil economy is reeling much worse than is being admitted on these pages or even the Dallas Petroleum Club. Chevron and Exxon are making cowboy statements about being able to withstand the pain, spread out and drill on a consistent basis, but so far neither one has done too well in the Delaware Basin: only the sweet spots are truly profitable at these price levels. Soon the precious few sweet spots will be drilled out, then they--and everyone else--will be forced to move into Tier 2 and 3 areas. Occidental borrowed $10 Billion @ 10% in order to buy Anadarko. They'll be upside down if oil goes below $45, despite their bravado. So . . . . . while I'm a Republican and you're likely a Democrat from your above statement about impeachment, I don't really think anyone has to worry about a second term for Mr. Trump; it looks to me as though he has dug himself a hole and refuses to stop digging. I hate to see this because I sincerely feel that any one of the Democratic candidates will absolutely destroy hydrocarbon energy by subsidizing alternative energy endeavors greatly while slapping a carbon tax on traditional hydrocarbons. A Republican Congress is the only thing that will save the oil and gas industry in that dismal scenario. Sorry, but this is Monday, and Black Monday at that. Not only have we as a nation suffered carnage of our population from all these shootings, but we're suffering the double whammy of a trade war we possibly can't win. 

[Strangels + 1]

Trump, bluster and lies. This Texan voted for the prick. I was mistaken, never again. He and his eastern banker friends would like nothing better than $38 WTI. 

[J.mo + 165]

4 hours ago, Strangels said:

Trump, bluster and lies. This Texan voted for the prick. I was mistaken, never again. He and his eastern banker friends would like nothing better than $38 WTI. 

So who else you gonna vote for? A Democrat that makes you keep it in the ground and get $0 wti? 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

19 minutes ago, J.mo said:

So who else you gonna vote for? A Democrat that makes you keep it in the ground and get $0 wti? 

And to think there are many who think Trump can actually manipulate the markets!!! 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Maybe we should start a TDS Oil humor subforum.  These threads are amusing  : )   Have fun, knock yourself out, go for it, I can use the laughs.

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay geniuses, what should Trump have done? Obviously Xi was not negotiating in good faith and was trying to drag negotiations on until after the next election (hoping for another weak President to play with).

Are you suggesting that we let China blackmail the States via the T-Bills forever?

Come on, you whine and winge but you don't offer a viable alternative...you MUST be Democrats!

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

17 hours ago, David Zernhelt said:

The Dow has crossed -600 today and oil price is plunging.  There’s my proof that Trump is doing all of this on purpose - using his “China Tariffs Game” to control the whole market.....but it benefits his investments ONLY.  Pelosi should have started Impeachment proceedings against Trump more than a year ago!!!!  She waited too long!!!!  

You need to stay out of the catnip...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Don't mind me, this thread amuses me : )

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Tariffs? I have a couple of suggestions. Right now, as we speak, large quantities of cobalt are being removed from skinny burrows in the Congo, by young, malnourished boys trying to help their families. Several perish each year. Our federal government is actually subsidizing this indirectly, by supporting the "clean energy" lithium battery for Teslas and other Ev's. Mammoth editions of these are being promoted for energy storage, and are even being used in the oil field. Specifically, in the Permian Basin. These things use large amounts of nickel and cobalt. Since wind and solar--the pets of the Green New Deal program--are unreliable (Trump's famous line, "Honey, I'd like to watch TV but the wind's not blowing"), these same storage batteries have to be utilized for a consistent energy stream. Stop all government subsidies! Farm, oil and gas, wind and solar, but especially EV. Slap a tariff on imported cobalt, treat it like blood diamonds, let the free market figure it out. I'm not a fan of the trade war--and not entirely for selfish purposes, though that's obviously part of it. Apple has probably been the victim of more thievery of intel property than any other company, and they seem to have done pretty well. Does anyone seriously think that we're not trying to peer at China's intel property? 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 8/5/2019 at 11:08 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

The PBOC has 3.2 trillion in treasury bills. As our central bankers lower rates, China makes a huge amount of money on their US forex. I don't think the geniuses who advise the president took this into consideration: this is China's insurance policy against disaster. Not only that but the yuan doesn't float in response to free market forces; the PBOC sets its value. Sure, that's currency manipulation, just as the president says, but we "manipulate" currency in our own way, by printing it, by changing the interest rates at will. I'm American, not Chinese, so I support our government in all things. However, every respected economist in the United States--and I don't include Peter Navarro in that esteemed group--says that nobody wins in a trade war; there are only losers. Our president took a gamble. Our uneasy relationship with China was actually in pretty decent equilibrium. Sure, they stole intellectual data, but mostly from the cloud storage people and Apple . . . and all of them seemed to be doing okay. Better than okay. We were exporting huge amounts of soybeans, corn and pork to China. And don't forget oil--this is, after all, an oil forum. Well, duh, President Xi has spent a lot of time on American farms: he knows that they represent our economic Achilles Heel. He also is quite aware of the oil market. He is willing to buy Iranian oil and they are eager to sell it at a discount. It's good oil, why not. Russia and Saudi Arabia are more than willing to top off the tank. Net/Net--we're in a bind here. It's a circular firing squad and there will be no man left standing. Everybody gets wounded. President Xi knows full well that if President Trump persists, increases tariffs to 25% while Xi blocks the purchase of US oil and gas, as well as soybeans and corn, then Mr. Trump will likely lose the soybean states that served as the swing states to put him into power, and he is even taking a calculated gamble that Texas--yes, Texas--will go to a Democrat. The Texas shale oil economy is reeling much worse than is being admitted on these pages or even the Dallas Petroleum Club. Chevron and Exxon are making cowboy statements about being able to withstand the pain, spread out and drill on a consistent basis, but so far neither one has done too well in the Delaware Basin: only the sweet spots are truly profitable at these price levels. Soon the precious few sweet spots will be drilled out, then they--and everyone else--will be forced to move into Tier 2 and 3 areas. Occidental borrowed $10 Billion @ 10% in order to buy Anadarko. They'll be upside down if oil goes below $45, despite their bravado. So . . . . . while I'm a Republican and you're likely a Democrat from your above statement about impeachment, I don't really think anyone has to worry about a second term for Mr. Trump; it looks to me as though he has dug himself a hole and refuses to stop digging. I hate to see this because I sincerely feel that any one of the Democratic candidates will absolutely destroy hydrocarbon energy by subsidizing alternative energy endeavors greatly while slapping a carbon tax on traditional hydrocarbons. A Republican Congress is the only thing that will save the oil and gas industry in that dismal scenario. Sorry, but this is Monday, and Black Monday at that. Not only have we as a nation suffered carnage of our population from all these shootings, but we're suffering the double whammy of a trade war we possibly can't win. 

Gerry, you know a lot about finance and oil. I hope you are wrong on President Trump though. I am very grateful to have him for a variety of reasons. It is Wednesday today. Look at our markets then look at Chinas. Also, look at the riots in Hong Kong and Moscow. China has Many problems. They and Russia are totally despotic nations. I look at more than just our economy. I look at the overall picture and favor a shift to that natural gas that some just flare off. I have never seen a man stand up for America like Trump since Ronald Reagan. Trump has inspired leaders all over the world to stand up for their people and their nation. Trump is stronger than Reagan was and reminds me more of Teddy Roosevelt or Andrew Jackson. 

Conservatism Around the World https://docs.google.com/document/d/1twQ_yBtl-FPwhXf2mYA7qvGj1D8yts8El0m8nObWxuU/edit