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Big Problem For Oil Majors

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The report linked below is very interesting

https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

Oil Prices likely to fall to $20/b by 2030, as predicted by William Edwards (though he might estimate an earlier date).

By 2022-2025 the transition to EVs is likely to start severely cut into oil demand, though it will likely be 15 to 20 years before most oil demand for personal land transport (roughly 27% of World oil demand) is replaced by EVs, commercial land transport demand may also replace oil demand bringing the total to about 40% of oil demand.

Discuss, but read the paper it is very interesting and a problem the oil industry needs to face.

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See page 7 figures 1 and 2

For gasoline LDVs, we calculate the oil price required to yield as much net energy as would new renewables projects in tandem with EVs at $9-$10/bbl, and for diesel at $17-$19/bbl.
 

fig1fig2.gif

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1 hour ago, D Coyne said:

The report linked below is very interesting

https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F

Oil Prices likely to fall to $20/b by 2030, as predicted by William Edwards (though he might estimate an earlier date).

By 2022-2025 the transition to EVs is likely to start severely cut into oil demand, though it will likely be 15 to 20 years before most oil demand for personal land transport (roughly 27% of World oil demand) is replaced by EVs, commercial land transport demand may also replace oil demand bringing the total to about 40% of oil demand.

Discuss, but read the paper it is very interesting and a problem the oil industry needs to face.

* DEMAND GOING DOWN

* SUPPLY GOING UP

* COSTS TO PRODUCE GOING  DOWN

* PRICE GOING DOWN

Trouble for ALL oil producers. 

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(edited)

Has this guy looked at the lack of profits for EV manufacturers or the abysmal quality of the vehicles coming out of Tesla, GM and Fiat?  Furthermore, the batteries on these cars lose the ability to hold a deep charge after a couple of years and so their range drops, especially on the low end.  This dufus should have a look at the complaints about the batteries in the Fiat 500 just as an example. 

For another example, look at wrecked Teslas and see how many can be fixed, the answer is zero.  This is another problem with electric cars, they are either pristine or junk, they don't fix well.  The life of a gasoline powered car is far longer than that of the crummy EVs being produced now.  They are worse than the stock of shale companies when it comes to losing money.  You buy an EV, expect to lose the entire purchase price within 5 years, if it lasts that long.

Edited by wrs
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Furthermore there is the question that after x amount of EV sales will the market go flat?

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(edited)

12 hours ago, wrs said:

Has this guy looked at the lack of profits for EV manufacturers or the abysmal quality of the vehicles coming out of Tesla, GM and Fiat?  Furthermore, the batteries on these cars lose the ability to hold a deep charge after a couple of years and so their range drops, especially on the low end.  This dufus should have a look at the complaints about the batteries in the Fiat 500 just as an example. 

For another example, look at wrecked Teslas and see how many can be fixed, the answer is zero.  This is another problem with electric cars, they are either pristine or junk, they don't fix well.  The life of a gasoline powered car is far longer than that of the crummy EVs being produced now.  They are worse than the stock of shale companies when it comes to losing money.  You buy an EV, expect to lose the entire purchase price within 5 years, if it lasts that long.

The "EV market" regarding manufacturing is driven by ideology and not economics. For the consumer, for a short range commuter car only?  They are great.  For 3 years I drove my self made electric bike to work till the NICad died and my job changed.  If someone can make Lithium Titanate batteries far cheaper... Oh yea, sign me up.  Until then.....  niche market only. 

EDIT: Mods change this subject to Renewables.  Get this stuff out oil(general)

Edited by Wastral

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28 minutes ago, Wastral said:

The "EV market" regarding manufacturing is driven by ideology and not economics. For the consumer, for a short range commuter car only?  They are great.  For 3 years I drove my self made electric bike to work till the NICad died and my job changed.  If someone can make Lithium Titanate batteries far cheaper... Oh yea, sign me up.  Until then.....  niche market only. 

EDIT: Mods change this subject to Renewables.  Get this stuff out oil(general)

You know, last night I was riding my harley home thinking about Tesla's and ev's. call me ignorant, but it seems to be a very directed market. Mainly city inhabitants in urban settings. But this model seems to rely heavily on a garage parked vehicle, or at very least a driveway. Which most of these people do not have? Unless municipalities plan on lining the streets, I dont see someone dragging an extension cord to their Tesla. Or an investor filling high rise garages. Which I'm sure will happen and technology and infrastructure is rapidly adapted once the ecosystem of demand is built. But that was just something that crossed my mind briefly last night. 

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