Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production

[James Regan + 1,776]

After OPEC and Russia stepped up and made cuts, and the USA forced cuts in Venezuela and Iran at what point does the USA stop stockpiling crude and feedstocks, it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part.

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/14/2019 at 5:03 PM, James Regan said:

After OPEC and Russia stepped up and made cuts, and the USA forced cuts in Venezuela and Iran at what point does the USA stop stockpiling crude and feedstocks, it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part

According to ARAMCO conference call Monday they stated they averaged 10 million barrels/day oil production first half of this year.  

THAT'S TEN MILION BARRELS A DAY.

SAME AS 2018 

NO CUT IN PRODUCTION

ARMACO CAN'T LIE ON CALL. SEC WOULD BE ALL OVER THEM. THAT'S WHY THEY HONESTLY REPORTED THAT AVG PRODUCTION WAS 10 MILLION BARRELS A DAY WHICH IS THE SAME AS 2018.

OPEC AND OIL MINISTERS MISREPRESENT THE TRUTH (LIE).  ARAMCO SPEAKS THE TRUTH. 

ARAMCO ALSO STATED THEY SATISFIED 100% OF CLIENTS DEMAND. 

 

Don't believe lies and propaganda from Khalid al-Fahlih or OPEC.  

People lie, especially when their survival depends on it.

"We made cuts" is the second biggest lie coming out of Saudi Arabia this year.

The #1 lie coming out of Saudi Arabia this year is " Mohammed bin Salman did not order the butchering of Khashoggi" 

Edited August 21, 2019 by SKEP

[J.mo + 165]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

After OPEC and Russia stepped up and made cuts, and the USA forced cuts in Venezuela and Iran at what point does the USA stop stockpiling crude and feedstocks, it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part.

Lol. So you want the United states to begin to act with and ad Russia and KSA? Laughable. 

Too many variables. That would be like me dialing back output at my gas station because I need higher margins on the retail side. But the guy across the street needs higher volumes on the wholesale side and could care less about retail margins. 

There is too much of that in US oil production. Guys like ExxonMobil and conoco make quite a bit on the refining side, they need to supply their refineries, their wholesale trucking outlets, and retail establishments. so the pure upstream guys will take a beating, as diversified players continue output based on their suited portfolios. 

I know oil has always been easy money and easily controlled. But as time changes, so do business models. Adapt or die. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

7 hours ago, SKEP said:

According to ARAMCO conference call Monday they stated they averaged 10 million barrels/day oil production first half of this year.  

THAT'S TEN MILION BARRELS A DAY.

SAME AS 2018 

NO CUT IN PRODUCTION

ARMACO CAN'T LIE ON CALL. SEC WOULD BE ALL OVER THEM

Don't believe lies and propaganda from Khalid al-Fahlih or OPEC.  

People lie, especially when their survival depends on it.

"We made cuts" is the second biggest lie coming out of Saudi Arabia this year. Quite an honor. The #1 lie, " Mohammed bin Salman did not order the butchering of Khashoggi"

So Aramco are telling lies, and they will get in trouble after a phone call, the fact if correct that they are still at 2018 levels is proof (if correct) they haven’t ramped up, and are in fact holding back. Saudi has the luxury of a robust industry that they can choke back and not suffer start up issues, the shale patch cannot you have to keep producing due to the geology, tricky situation being forced to flood the market.

The USA is playing a double edged sword, sanctions on China are being played out as this massive benefit to the US economy but second to Canada China is the biggest importer of US crude. If China pull the trigger and put tariffs on US crude the economy will suffer more than it already is. 

Do you understand supply and demand, demand is not pumping oil into storage tanks. 

I am no oil trader but a mechanical thinker and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist or an EToro oil trader to see that WTI will fall below the break even and the shitstorm will hit US Shale, forget the BS that US Shale is not tied into WTI or Brent as it is, it’s not an autonomous commodity.

The USA should be healthy in its business model not what it’s currently doing which is playing both sides of the coin, put the hold on crude exports to China if you want to really make a call, placing tariffs on plastic dog turds and other consumer items that the USA is addicted to is only affecting the consumer.

I am anti China and agree with the pressure but hypocrisy is an ugly way to work.

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/15/2019 at 2:50 AM, James Regan said:

So Aramco are telling lies, and they will get in trouble after a phone call, the fact if correct that they are still at 2018 levels is proof (if correct) they haven’t ramped up, and are in fact holding back. Saudi has the luxury of a robust industry that they can choke back and not suffer start up issues, the shale patch cannot you have to keep producing due to the geology, tricky situation being forced to flood the market.

The USA is playing a double edged sword, sanctions on China are being played out as this massive benefit to the US economy but second to Canada China is the biggest importer of US crude. If China pull the trigger and put tariffs on US crude the economy will suffer more than it already is. 

Do you understand supply and demand, demand is not pumping oil into storage tanks. 

I am no oil trader but a mechanical thinker and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist or an EToro oil trader to see that WTI will fall below the break even and the shitstorm will hit US Shale, forget the BS that US Shale is not tied into WTI or Brent as it is, it’s not an autonomous commodity.

The USA should be healthy in its business model not what it’s currently doing which is playing both sides of the coin, put the hold on crude exports to China if you want to really make a call, placing tariffs on plastic dog turds and other consumer items that the USA is addicted to is only affecting the consumer.

I am anti China and agree with the pressure but hypocrisy is an ugly way to work.

Jamie

Read it again. ARAMCO IS TELLING THE TRUTH.  NO LIE.

The Saudis lie. OPEC lies, Oil Ministers lie. 

Answer me this .  Is MBS lying when he says he did not know about  the plan to cut Khashoggi into piece with a bone saw.  Is he living when he says he didn't approve the murder.

Can't wait to hear your answer.

Please tell.

Answer me this. Were Saudis lying when they said no Saudis financed 911 ?

Answer me this. We're Saudis lying when they say they did not flood market with oil to crush US production in '74, '84-'85, '98 -99, 2014-2015 ?

Remember as Senator Graham said, "Saudi Arabia wouldn't last 2 weeks without our (U.S.) support."

You say Saudi is U.S. friend.  No they are opportunist. 

 

Edited August 21, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

22 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Jamie

Read it again. ARAMCO IS TELLING THE TRUTH.  NO LIE.

The Saudis lie.

Answer me this .  Is MBS living when he says he did not know about  the plan to cut Khashoggi into piece with a bone saw.  Is he living when he says he didn't approve the murder.

Can't wait to hear your answer.

Please tell.

 

Of course he’s “living” , he is very powerful but it’s hard to lie if your not living.

What a strange question 👊🏻

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/15/2019 at 8:20 AM, James Regan said:

Of course he’s “living” , he is very powerful but it’s hard to lie if your not living.

What a strange question 👊🏻

ONE POINT FOR JAMIE ! 

GIVE HIM A GOLD STAR.

HE CAUGHT A SPELLING ERROR .

Now he just needs to learn Economics 101

Edited August 22, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

15 hours ago, James Regan said:

 

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

16 hours ago, James Regan said:

After OPEC and Russia stepped up and made cuts, and the USA forced cuts in Venezuela and Iran at what point does the USA stop stockpiling crude and feedstocks, it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6567664717312163840?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567676464974663680)&replyUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567689436124020736)

"Randall, good observations, as usual.
The only way that I can see for global oil prices to recover to my preferred magical Goldilocks price of $70 is for U.S. LTO (Light Tight Oil aka Shale Oil) OVERPRODUCTION to scale back.

LTO *overproduction* is killing global oil prices.  It is totally out of the hands of OPEC, and squarely the responsibility of the IRRESPONSIBLE SHALE OIL OVERPRODUCERS to scale back their overproduction.

OPEC is *helpless* in the seemingly neverending onslaught of TOO MUCH U.S. SHALE OIL saturating the markets.

Stubborn LTO nitwits apparently won't learn until large numbers of LTO producers go bankrupt after they singlehandedly force the global price of oil below $50 and it stays there.

Yes, I'm yelling.

When a ship springs a leak, you don't grab a bucket and dump more water *into* the ship.

LTO herd of wild cats feasting on catnip.  Going to be a heckuva hangover for them.

Bring back the Texas Railroad Commission, please, to put some order and restraint back into the global oil markets."

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/15/2019 at 9:39 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6567664717312163840?commentUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567676464974663680)&replyUrn=urn%3Ali%3Acomment%3A(activity%3A6567664717312163840%2C6567689436124020736)

"Randall, good observations, as usual.
The only way that I can see for global oil prices to recover to my preferred magical Goldilocks price of $70 is for U.S. LTO (Light Tight Oil aka Shale Oil) OVERPRODUCTION to scale back.

LTO *overproduction* is killing global oil prices.  It is totally out of the hands of OPEC, and squarely the responsibility of the IRRESPONSIBLE SHALE OIL OVERPRODUCERS to scale back their overproduction.

OPEC is *helpless* in the seemingly neverending onslaught of TOO MUCH U.S. SHALE OIL saturating the markets.

Stubborn LTO nitwits apparently won't learn until large numbers of LTO producers go bankrupt after they singlehandedly force the global price of oil below $50 and it stays there.

Yes, I'm yelling.

When a ship springs a leak, you don't grab a bucket and dump more water *into* the ship.

LTO herd of wild cats feasting on catnip.  Going to be a heckuva hangover for them.

Bring back the Texas Railroad Commission, please, to put some order and restraint back into the global oil markets."

You're saying US should cutback so OPEC can sell $2.00 oil for your $70 magical number.  More lollipops and unicorns.  That's not real world. Adam Smith, "Wealth of Nations".

Amazing how many are drinking the Khalid al-Fahlid cool-aid.

Let free markets do their job.  

Take away the (1) foolish over leverage balance sheets and (2) ridiculous give-away whatever you want royalty payments negotiated by stary eyed shale producers and they all would be profitable at current prices.  

I guarantee Trump will lose 2020 if he goes along with Perry, Hamm, Sheffield, MBS, MBZ, al-Falih.  

Let nature take its course. 

SOCIALIST price fixing to bail out OPEC is irresponsible.

OPEC HAS TRIED TO CRUSH U.S. PRODUCTION 5 TIMES SINCE 1970's.

NOW OPEC AND RICK PERRY WANT TO HELP U.S. SAVE OUR POOR MISUNDERSTOOD SHALE INDUSTRY.

Shale will thrive. Just need to cull the weak sisters.

I understand those that are small producers, small drillers, investors in shale bubble, employed in shale or worked for large multinational that retirement savings have holdings in company stock may hurt a bit . But dumping free market principles for the benefit if a few is wrong. Ludites who damn technology advancements for higher prices for a few priorities are misplaced.

Free Markets are self regulating. Smart management, efficient operations and fiscal responsibility are rewarded.  

Electrification and renewables will soon reach critical mass. The oil industry knows this.  Oil industry will not go away, it will just be smaller at lower prices.  There will be a point in the not to distant future when producers will understand the economics and sell while the going is good. 

Tom , I respect your knowledge and opinions , but you are wrong on this one .

 

Edited August 21, 2019 by SKEP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, SKEP said:

You're saying US should cutback so OPEC can sell $2.00 oil for your $70 magical number.  More lollipops and unicorns.  

Let free markets do their job.  

Take away the foolish over leverage balance sheets and ridiculous give-away , whatever you want royalty payments negotiated by stary eyed shale producers and they all would be profitable at current prices.  

I guarantee Trump will lose 2020 if he goes along with Perry, Hamm, Sheffield, MBS, MBZ, al-Falih.  

Let nature take its course. 

SOCIALIST price fixing to bail out OPEC is irresponsible.

Nope, I'm not asking for Socialism, and I am no fan of OPEC.

U.S. LTO overproduction is killing the global oil industry.  

[Stephenk + 28]

16 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope, I'm not asking for Socialism, and I am no fan of OPEC.

U.S. LTO overproduction is killing the global oil industry.  

Tom not going to say your wrong but how many times have we been threw this? Almost every oil boom you have people who go broke and one's who get rich and get out in time and wait for the next round to come along and from what I've seen over the years it the bigger companies that push up the price of everything from drilling to service by putting so much money out there they have to keep drilling to justify to the investors until the bottom fall out of the market then pushing out your smaller companies that don't keep their over head down.   

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope, I'm not asking for Socialism, and I am no fan of OPEC.

U.S. LTO overproduction is killing the global oil industry.  

It's interesting that an industry segment that barely exports a million bbls per day is disrupting a worldwide Industry that produces and consumes 100 million bbls per day. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 8/15/2019 at 12:08 PM, Ward Smith said:

It's interesting that an industry segment that barely exports a million bbls per day is disrupting a worldwide Industry that produces and consumes 100 million bbls per day. 

The US Government hardly needs to go instituting output controls.  All it has to do is levy a $20/bbl tariff on imported crude, with an exemption for Canada of course, and the burdens shift from the shale producer investors to places such as Nigeria.  When the US import consumption disappears, the rest of the world does not have the aggregate demand to absorb all production from all players, so then the Russians and the Iranians can go broke as those prices collapse. 

Will that create some envy somewhere?  Arguments about "Well, they pay only $2.00/gal in Spain, why should we pay $3?"  Yes, that is one possible result.  But you let Russia take it in the shorts.  If you find that useful, hey, go for it.  Meanwhile, the internal US economy will do quite nicely.

Edited August 23, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

9 hours ago, James Regan said:

placing tariffs on plastic dog turds and other consumer items that the USA is addicted to is only affecting the consumer.

Not really, James.  The Chinese make a lot more than "plastic dog turds."

There is this image that Chinese goods are frivolous consumer items.  That is not true.  For example, take a look at the product line of Ethan Allen Furniture.  That used to be a dominant player in the furniture manufacture business, with plants mostly in New England turning out quality stuff, nice bedrooms sets, living room sets, that sort of thing.  Today, easily 30% of the product you see in an Ethan Allen showroom is made in China.  Is it quality product?  Arguably, yes.  But the US workers have taken a huge hit.  There are these empty Ethan Allen furniture plants about, the workers all dismissed.  That work and that wage package is now taken by Chinese.  

Equally, those Chinese products were shipped here in Chinese wooden crates, along with Chinese machinery and other goods.  Those crates contained the Asian Borer Beetle, which is now loose in America and is clobbering the ash trees.  Ash is a very valuable hardwood and I anticipate that ash will be wiped out by that Asian Beetle.  There seems to be no way to stop it. Right now the EU demands that crates coming in from China be fumigated before loading onto the ship, and the importer has to certify that.  There is no such requirement for importing Chinese crates into the USA. 

Don't think that the Chinese have any concern that their native beetles are now wiping out the millions of US ash trees.  Not even on their radar. 

[J.mo + 165]

If we are going to push up the price and regulate the oil industry why stop there?

Why not make cars and trucks 100k so Ford and gm can benefit. why not scale back home building so prices rocket and JP Morgan bumps on the stock exchange. 

Heck, why not wipe the irresponsible debt from the citizens who willingly took on what they could not handle. Even better, why not boost their pay to be able to get them to the level needed to pay it back. 

I thought for a while there were intelligent people here and this was a good source of information. lately, peoples judgements have been severely clouded 

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope, I'm not asking for Socialism, and I am no fan of OPEC.

U.S. LTO overproduction is killing the global oil industry.  

 

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope, I'm not asking for Socialism, and I am no fan of OPEC.

U.S. LTO overproduction is killing the global oil industry.  

I look at is it is Killing an abusive 60 year Cartel that is headed by a barbaric autocratic Regime.  The chains of Mideast oil dependency have been cast off.  Why not let the Free Market work.  

Those that want U.S. production quotas have an agenda.  I don't blame them for wanting a bailout.  Low oil prices are the primary factor saving U.S. from falling into a recession in 2020.  

[Boat + 1,315]

Since the US is a net oil importer how could they be possibly be blamed for overproduction. Hehe, but that’s what you read from those with an agenda. 

Nat gas exports are minuscule as the US just started exporting recently. Look to Qutar and Australia when talking Gas exports. When the US passes them in exports then fire the blame. 

Edited August 15, 2019 by Boat

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 8/15/2019 at 1:03 PM, J.mo said:

If we are going to push up the price and regulate the oil industry why stop there?

Nobody is advocating regulating the oil industry.  It is totally free to make its own decisions.  Same as US steel mills and aluminum plants.   But remember, there are macro political forces at play.  Just as US steel and aluminum plants would be put out of business by foreign practices including dumping and other artificial price manipulations, tariffs protect the domestic producers from that.  If you want a domestic production source, then it can (and should) be protected from foreigners who would seek to do it evil.  We have already had our production and markets abused by KSA flooding the market with cheap oil, in an effort to bankrupt US producers.  Is that reasonable?  Is it reasonable for the federal government to stop it?  If you take the view that it is reasonable to protect domestic steel plants by using tariffs, then why not protect domestic oil producers by using oil tariffs?  Or quotas?  Or both?  

The same logical arguments used to protect US aluminum smelters from oblivion can be set forth for US shale producers, deep well producers, oilsands extractors, and the rest of that industry.  All of that is perfectly logical. 

I have repeatedly argued here that there is no such thing any more as free trade and "comparative advantage," where everybody wins.  What you have is "absolute advantage" and only one party wins.  The way it is set up, the US always comes out the loser.  Why is that a reasonable proposition?

On 8/15/2019 at 1:03 PM, J.mo said:

I thought for a while there were intelligent people here and this was a good source of information. lately, peoples judgments have been severely clouded 

I am sorry that you feel that way.  This is a forum for intellectual exchanges, with views carefully mustered and presented. I expect everyone here to conform to carefully and logically constructed argument. The forum may not be perfect, but for the most part the participants try hard. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 8/15/2019 at 2:49 PM, Boat said:

Since the US is a net oil importer how could they be possibly be blamed for overproduction. Hehe, but that’s what you read from those with an agenda. 

Nat gas exports are minuscule as the US just started exporting recently. Look to Qutar and Australia when talking Gas exports. When the US passes them in exports then fire the blame. 

Oil is a loose term when talking about the US as a net importer its a a broad term that includes crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuels, and other products; “petroleum” and “oil” are easily confused.

No agenda here other than the fact that the US is flooding the market with LTO and would like the rest of the world to step up and cut production, the problem is the US tight oil industry has no valve installed it will pump until its dead. The fall off from shale play is prolific and unsustainable and in general an unhealthy business model.

Drill baby Drill

[Boat + 1,315]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Oil is a loose term when talking about the US as a net importer its a a broad term that includes crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuels, and other products; “petroleum” and “oil” are easily confused.

No agenda here other than the fact that the US is flooding the market with LTO and would like the rest of the world to step up and cut production, the problem is the US tight oil industry has no valve installed it will pump until its dead. The fall off from shale play is prolific and unsustainable and in general an unhealthy business model.

Drill baby Drill

So 30% of refinery capacity is foreigner owned and much of that foreign oil imported going to feed their refineries and reshipped. Or mixed with LTO to get the heavy stuff to 32 API which is what refineries need. Or maybe they swap some heavy oil for light oil and ship it back to other refineries on the world market that have heavy oil to mix. 

I bet if you told the Saudi to scrap that refinery or configure it refine LTO they would jump because our cheap nat gas feedstock is the draw along with location, location, location for selling to Latin countries and others in this area of the world. 

LTO is not a problem. It will sell. This narrative of all its problems is bs IMO.

Let me rephrase, the Permian forced it way onto the world stage. So of course there will be complainers. Suck it up, it’s just capitalism.

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 8/16/2019 at 11:58 PM, Boat said:

So 30% of refinery capacity is foreigner owned and much of that foreign oil imported going to feed their refineries and reshipped. Or mixed with LTO to get the heavy stuff to 32 API which is what refineries need. Or maybe they swap some heavy oil for light oil and ship it back to other refineries on the world market that have heavy oil to mix. 

I bet if you told the Saudi to scrap that refinery or configure it refine LTO they would jump because our cheap nat gas feedstock is the draw along with location, location, location for selling to Latin countries and others in this area of the world. 

LTO is not a problem. It will sell. This narrative of all its problems is bs IMO.

Let me rephrase, the Permian forced it way onto the world stage. So of course there will be complainers. Suck it up, it’s just capitalism.

Conventional oil is seeing a substantial upturn in the past months, there is a rush to get these units reactivated, at over 100Million USD to reactivate a Deepwater unit, this is not being taken lightly, US companies are the drivers in this resurgence, if there was confidence in the US Shale plays why would they take on these high cost risky projects?

"Activity in the Gulf of Mexico is picking up. The Trump administration’s rollback of offshore drilling rules put in place after BP’s 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster could also prime the way for more drilling in the US outer continental shelf."

US Shale indeed forced its way into the world stage only because the oil price for much more historically rewarding Deepwater plays were becoming expensive. The knock on affect to the detriment of the Drilling contractors who had invested fortunes in developing and building deepwater assets was enormous and the service sectors, but the IOCs have realised that the shale plays are not sustainable and are high risk in their own way, the business model for LTO is based on unhealthy fiscal support from money grabbers (Lenders) on wall street, 

Helped by higher oil prices, deepwater drilling is back — but with a difference. Newly approved projects are cheaper, simpler and often smaller than those sanctioned previously.

“The broad-based recovery is now also reaching the offshore market,” Patrick Schorn, executive vice-president of wells at Schlumberger, told analysts last week. “We are preparing ourselves further for deepwater.”

“For us to do deep water Gulf of Mexico, it’s got to be really good. It can’t just be the kind of project you might have funded historically,” he added Even so, a dramatic fall in investment during the market downturn and a focus on so-called short cycle projects, such as US shale that is expected to plateau in the 2020s, means more offshore projects will be required to meet demand."

https://www.ft.com/content/caca46c2-8e61-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546

The shale plays are without doubt a success for the USA, but the break even against cost is now becoming evident and relevant and are obviously being considered temporary.

I would be ignorant to say I do have a personal agenda, however the shale oil revolution IMO is not the answer or the future and we will see this in the next two years, it expanded due to fall of the conventional market and its high cost but as we move ahead and adapt it will once again become the extraction of choice for the IOCs who in reality control the oil Industry, not mom and pop companies using borrowed capital which they cannot give the investors a return.

Deepwater will regain its momentum as its preparing for the inevitable.

Edited August 18, 2019 by James Regan

[DocManfred + 42]

Interesting chart, but I belive US shale won´t stop. Numeros mom and pop companies will declare chapter 11 in the coming months with lower O&G prices due to continuous overproduction in US.

Ownership will mostly change to IOCs. They have deeper pockets, stable balance sheets and can better steer the business through tough times in volatile markets by exploiting synergies. And they are used to deliver adequate returns to their shareholders. 

Hopefully the outcome will be a better adaption of US shale production to demand and allow for adequate prices which can pay-off investments for sustainable future O&G production.

[James Regan + 1,776]

33 minutes ago, DocManfred said:

Interesting chart, but I belive US shale won´t stop. Numeros mom and pop companies will declare chapter 11 in the coming months with lower O&G prices due to continuous overproduction in US.

Ownership will mostly change to IOCs. They have deeper pockets, stable balance sheets and can better steer the business through tough times in volatile markets by exploiting synergies. And they are used to deliver adequate returns to their shareholders. 

Hopefully the outcome will be a better adaption of US shale production to demand and allow for adequate prices which can pay-off investments for sustainable future O&G production.

The forecasts and the actuals are showing a plateau, will the plateau drop off?

The shale growth story has been a very seductive dialogue the past 15 or so years. Who can argue with a chart like this?

You really can’t. The proof is in the pudding as shale goes, and shale heretics have been made to sit in the corner with a pointy cap on their heads.

 

 

This year, for a variety of reasons, domestic production and shale growth in particular have hit a wall. The latest report from EIA shows a decline that breaks the upward trend line.

Interesting, what has happened for this bullish trend to be reversed?

Edited August 18, 2019 by James Regan

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 8/14/2019 at 4:03 PM, James Regan said:

After OPEC and Russia stepped up and made cuts, and the USA forced cuts in Venezuela and Iran at what point does the USA stop stockpiling crude and feedstocks, it’s time to shut in some of that Shale patch guys and play your part.

I have a better idea: Uncle Sam can cut someone else's production.  Preferably someone who's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.