Recession Jitters Are Rising. Is There Reason To Worry?

[50 shades of black + 254]

"... Growth is stalling. Factory output is down. Oil demand is off. U.S. tariffs on China have slowed trade. Investors have crowded into government bonds and sent interest rates sliding in a way that has often preceded a recession. So is a recession near? Hard to tell. What’s clear is that many of the world’s most powerful countries have skidded into a moment of uncertainty that has left consumers, businesses, markets and much of the political world feeling gloomier. President Donald Trump has asserted that the U.S. economy is strong. Yet on Monday, Trump called for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates with the kind of aggressiveness the Fed normally uses to combat a recession. A new survey shows that a clear majority of economists expect a downturn to hit by 2021 at the latest, according to a report Monday from the National Association of Business Economics. Some of that pessimism is a natural byproduct of the duration of the U.S. expansion: The economy has been growing for more than a decade — the longest expansion on record — and a recession at some point is inevitable. Of course, the old joke is that economists have predicted nine of the past two recessions. Adding to the challenge is that recessions often go unrecognized until they are well underway..."

https://apnews.com/49391029f75c49479904cc5ad3b74071?utm_medium=APBusiness&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

[francoba + 93]

eternal topic, listen to the economists and analysts that you respect.

[50 shades of black + 254]

For some of them, I have lost respect: wrong prediction...  Listen to your pockets

[pinto + 293]

Well, based on the definition we are basically already in one.😀

[damirUSBiH + 327]

4 minutes ago, francoba said:

eternal topic, listen to the economists and analysts that you respect.

Pay closer attention to unemployment numbers and GDP.   The big things that could cause a recession would be corporate greed and accounting irresponsibility. Like being reported at GE.  Right now, recession fears are just based on probability statistics from market history...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

20 minutes ago, 50 shades of black said:

So is a recession near?

Nope.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/7024-china-has-already-lost-the-trade-war-meantime-the-us-might-sanction-china’s-largest-oil-company/?page=2#comment-62408

 

[Meredith Poor + 883]

We're in a 'pancake recession'. A large percentage of the population is living in recessionary circumstances, however the income and prospects of those that aren't more than makes up for those in distress. The 'layers at the bottom' are caving in, while those in the upper layers are doing fine. 'Doing fine' includes techies making $80,000 per year (in much of the country), this isn't just the '1%' or the plutocrats. Retail, automotive, rural, coal (and certain other commodity extraction), and some manufacturing are tanking.

Economic declines are generally the result of credit freezes. The US has instituted 'stress testing' and reserve requirements, etc., etc. so that major banks don't get overextended. Not that it matters, there is so much money floating around that 1/3rd of all debt pays 'negative rates'. As long as big cash piles are waiting to pounce, there will be few issues with credit.

People with overdue student loans are effectively frozen out of credit markets. We exist in a 'partial freeze' environment.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Anyone with overdue student loans has to blame themselves, their universities, their sloth, and all those stupid enough to lend them money for an exorbitantly priced education (politicians). Taxpayers should blame themselves for supporting university programs which are not worthwhile and those who teach students that they should get a free ride, or are privileged if they are White and should feel guilty for their race. etc. 

They should consider serving their nation in the armed forces and getting veterans educational benefits. Right now our military is looking for lots of good men and women. 

Edited August 21, 2019 by ronwagn
error

[James Regan + 1,776]

CHRIS COUMO AND STEPHEN MOORE GET INTO IT.... SKIP TO MIN 23 IN VIDEO LINK, SOME FAST THINKING FROM BOTH SIDES.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_sr1vFSN0E

[Meredith Poor + 883]

On 8/20/2019 at 10:08 PM, ronwagn said:

Anyone with overdue student loans has to blame themselves, their universities, their sloth, and all those stupid enough to lend them money for an exorbitantly priced education (politicians). Taxpayers should blame themselves for supporting university programs which are not worthwhile and those who teach students that they should get a free ride, or are privileged if they are White and should feel guilty for their race. etc. 

They should consider serving their nation in the armed forces and getting veterans educational benefits. Right now our military is looking for lots of good men and women. 

As usual the world is full of useless shiitake mushrooms.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

...

Why is the recession becoming “official” now?

As we head into the 2020 election cycle, it would certainly be convenient to pin an economic disaster on President Trump. Back in August of 2016, Brandon Smith of Alt-Market called exactly this. (Emphasis mine.)

I submit that there is in fact a wider economic crisis on the way, and that the elites plan to use the Brexit and Trump as scapegoats for this crisis.

I have stated this before, but I think the idea needs repeating:  The globalists need the economy to turn unstable in order to create a rationale for a centralized economic authority and a single global currency system.  This is why they have consistently called for a “coordinated global central banking policy” after the Brexit.  This is why they continue to warn of a fiscal crisis even though stock markets remain at all-time highs.

If Hillary Clinton, a well known globalist puppet deep in the bedrock of the establishment, wins the election only to have the economy tank, then the globalists will get the blame.

If Trump is either allowed in office, or is placed in office, and the economy tanks, CONSERVATIVES, the primary enemy of the globalists, will get the blame for the resulting crisis.

To reiterate, the globalists have created the conditions by which an economic crisis can be triggered at the time of their choosing (within certain limits).  They are then either supporting the success of seemingly conservative based movements and candidates, or simply refusing to interfere with them.  This is being done so that the globalists can then blame the crash they created on conservative movements.

This allows them to demonize not just conservatives, but the conservative philosophy in general; labeling it a poisonous ideal akin to fascism.  Their solution?  Erase all elements of conservatism and sovereignty from society for the sake of the “greater good” of the collective.

This is part of the long game. (source)

Note that the article above was written when everyone was pretty sure Hillary Clinton would be the next president. Heck, most of us were absolutely stunned on election night when Trump was named the winner.

The timing of this hullabaloo sure is convenient.

So why in the world is the MSM finally agreeing with the alternative media that we’re on the cusp of a crash? Well, it’s certainly convenient timing as we head into the 2020 election cycle. And I have to quote Brandon Smith again because whether I agree with him politically or not, there’s no doubt that he is absolutely brilliant when it comes to these types of predictions. (Emphasis mine.)

The media should have been reporting on economic crisis dangers for the past 2-3 years.  But, they didn’t give these problems much credence until recently.  So, what changed?

I can only theorize on why the media and the banking elites choose the timing they do to admit to the public what is about to happen. First, it is clear from their efforts to stifle free discussion that they do not want to let the populace know too far ahead of time that a crash is coming. According to the evidence, which I have outlined in-depth in previous articles, central banks and international banks sometimes engineer crash events in order to consolidate wealth and centralize their political power even further. Is it a conspiracy? Yes, it is, and it’s a provable one.

When they do finally release the facts, or allow their puppet media outlets to report on the facts, it seems that they allow for around 6-8 months of warning time before economic shock events occur. In the case of the current crash in fundamentals (and eventually stocks), the time may be shorter. Why? Because this time the banks and the media have a scapegoat in the form of Donald Trump, and by extension, they have a scapegoat in the form of conservatives, populists, and sovereignty activists.

The vast majority of articles flowing through mainstream news feeds on economic recession refer directly to Trump, his supporters and the trade war as the primary villains behind the downturn. The warnings from the Fed, the BIS and the IMF insinuate the same accusation. (source)

...

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

24 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

As we head into the 2020 election cycle, it would certainly be convenient to pin an economic disaster on President Trump. Back in August of 2016, Brandon Smith of Alt-Market called exactly this. (Emphasis mine.)

I submit that there is in fact a wider economic crisis on the way, and that the elites plan to use the Brexit and Trump as scapegoats for this crisis.

Just a couple posts up you said there is no recession coming.  Now there is a economic crisis and it's a conspiracy against trump? Which is it?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

21 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Just a couple posts up you said there is no recession coming.  Now there is a economic crisis and it's a conspiracy against trump? Which is it?

Enthalpic, it seems you are being deliberately obtuse yet again.  You want to be an EU-phile, no problem.  I am unabashedly pro-Trump, while you are unabashedly anti-Trump. Again, no problem.

While you are clearly not a stupid person, pretending to be clueless is your choice, not mine.

I already tied these themes together in an earlier thread - which you have commented on repeatedly - so you are very much aware of what I had already written:

 

As the impending "No - Deal Brexit" scares the piss out of EU Globalist unaccountable and unelected officials in Brussels, and Multinational companies and certain Western politicians that want to see China succeed and Western Democracies fail plot and scheme to create uncertainty and chaos, "Operation Fear" steps to the forefront.

I believe the "Operation Fear" scaremongering will get heavily promoted in all major Western Media, and will severely, and negatively, affect global economies - deliberately crashing them, including oil demand and oil prices.

So, I plan to periodically update this running thread with updates primarily from The Conservative Treehouse and The Tylers at ZeroHedge, both of which seem aware of what is going on with the Globalist backlash to a hard Brexit, a No - Deal Brexit.  

The Sky Is Falling !

Panic ! !

We're All Going To Die ! ! !

^ Mainstream Media reaction to No - Deal Brexit.

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Enthalpic, it seems you are being deliberately obtuse yet again.  You want to be an EU-phile, no problem.  I am unabashedly pro-Trump, while you are unabashedly anti-Trump. Again, no problem.

While you are clearly not a stupid person, pretending to be clueless is your choice, not mine.

I already tied these themes together in an earlier thread - which you have commented on repeatedly - so you are very much aware of what I had already written:

 

As the impending "No - Deal Brexit" scares the piss out of EU Globalist unaccountable and unelected officials in Brussels, and Multinational companies and certain Western politicians that want to see China succeed and Western Democracies fail plot and scheme to create uncertainty and chaos, "Operation Fear" steps to the forefront.

I believe the "Operation Fear" scaremongering will get heavily promoted in all major Western Media, and will severely, and negatively, affect global economies - deliberately crashing them, including oil demand and oil prices.

So, I plan to periodically update this running thread with updates primarily from The Conservative Treehouse and The Tylers at ZeroHedge, both of which seem aware of what is going on with the Globalist backlash to a hard Brexit, a No - Deal Brexit.  

The Sky Is Falling !

Panic ! !

We're All Going To Die ! ! !

^ Mainstream Media reaction to No - Deal Brexit.

Tom - What’s Your take on the “Back-Stop” In relation to the “Good Friday” agreement?

It looks like it will be thrown out by BJ regardless if we have a hard Brexit and also any plans the EU has to hold on to the back stop will be rejected alike?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

12 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

You want to be an EU-phile, no problem.  I am unabashedly pro-Trump, while you are unabashedly anti-Trump. Again, no problem.

 

I actually am not following the EU thing very closely.  The rest we agree on.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 8/20/2019 at 10:08 PM, ronwagn said:

Anyone with overdue student loans has to blame themselves, their universities, their sloth, and all those stupid enough to lend them money for an exorbitantly priced education (politicians). Taxpayers should blame themselves for supporting university programs which are not worthwhile and those who teach students that they should get a free ride, or are privileged if they are White and should feel guilty for their race. etc. 

They should consider serving their nation in the armed forces and getting veterans educational benefits. Right now our military is looking for lots of good men and women. 

Not quite, Ron.  Lots of student loans out there are being abysmally serviced by "Servicers,"   outfits that tke a 1/2 point of the loan in exchange for taking the payments and forwarding them to the securitized Trusts that developed the loan participation packages.  What has made the money explosively available, to even the most credit-unworthy, is that the loans cannot be discharged in bankruptcy proceedings.  The Obligor is stuck with them literally for life.  Meanwhile the Servicers have every incentive to keep tacking on charges so that the principal is never diminished. 

I know of a loan Obligor who  has some $92,000 in debt and the best job she can get is as a deli clerk earning $12.50/hour.  This is in Chicago.  There is no way on the planet that that loan can ever be paid.  What that does is, as Meredith points out, freeze her out of credit markets forever. So, she becomes a societal failure, due to papers she signed at age 18. This situation is what propels the Bernie Sanders campaign.  You say:  Go join the military.  That is not in society's (nor hers) interest. Not every American wants to go shoot people - the vast majority do not.  Right now any recruit is looking at a non-ending, permanent war in Afghanistan, running to 13 years, trying to bring order to tribesmen living in the seventh century.  Who wants to get involved in that? If anything, the military is way too big; should be chopped down by 3/4. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

24 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Tom - What’s Your take on the “Back-Stop” In relation to the “Good Friday” agreement?

It looks like it will be thrown out by BJ regardless if we have a hard Brexit and also any plans the EU has to hold on to the back stop will be rejected alike?

BJ seems dead serious about a hard Brexit, and the EU is unable to stop it.  All the EU can so is issue dire threats to try to intimidate the UK.

In my opinion, UK needs to leave the EU, full stop.  EU economic growth is flat.  Once UK leaves, I expect the EU will go full Socialist and crash the EU economies with even more taxes and hugely expensive climate mandates and other counter-productive actions.  Their choice to do so. 

UK is wise to leave before EU leaders crash their own economies with an EU version of Socialism - Tax and Spend and Tax some more, and also bring in lots more economic migrants to put on the dole, paid for by EU citizens.

 

[Meredith Poor + 883]

I'm running for president in 2020. My platform is to 'Screw the elites, I'm going to shake things up. This means maximizing chaos, and ignoring things like the condition of roads, water, the power grid, and economic malaise while focusing on buying a large island from a country that asserts that they don't own it'. The only thing I'm interested in is the attendance numbers at my rallies.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

35 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

I'm running for president in 2020

My dog volunteers to be your running mate.  She's a chow, sturdy shoulders, gorgeous redhead,  lots of bark, will give a major bite, don't mess with a chow!  Plus, can pull a sled team over that Greenland ice.  You need a woman on the ticket!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Tom - What’s Your take on the “Back-Stop” In relation to the “Good Friday” agreement?

It looks like it will be thrown out by BJ regardless if we have a hard Brexit and also any plans the EU has to hold on to the back stop will be rejected alike?

 

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

BJ seems dead serious about a hard Brexit, and the EU is unable to stop it.  All the EU can so is issue dire threats to try to intimidate the UK.

In my opinion, UK needs to leave the EU, full stop.  EU economic growth is flat.  Once UK leaves, I expect the EU will go full Socialist and crash the EU economies with even more taxes and hugely expensive climate mandates and other counter-productive actions.  Their choice to do so. 

UK is wise to leave before EU leaders crash their own economies with an EU version of Socialism - Tax and Spend and Tax some more, and also bring in lots more economic migrants to put on the dole, paid for by EU citizens.

 

Update, I just read the article below.  Seems I'm not the only one that thinks the EU is unravelling into a non-growth economic dwindling spiral.

The Stakes are High – Macron Emphasizes Maximum G7 Control

The stakes are high at this G7 Summit in Biarritz France.  Against the rising tide of populist nationalism -pushing against the globalist/corporatist world order- perhaps these stakes are the highest in the modern political era.

Italian President Giuseppe Conte’ is a lame duck summit participant having just quit his job due to economic and immigration backlash from his Italian population.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel has steered her export dependent economy into a recession; and has announced she won’t seek reelection while simultaneously putting the EU central bank into a 28 nation economic quagmire filled with unsustainable IOU’s….

French President Emmanuel Macron, the host for this year’s summit, has spent the better part of the last year trying to violently block the rising yellow vest populist movement, and he is desperate for any distraction away from his own economic reality.

Meanwhile EU President Donald Tusk is locked in an economic death match with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over the terms of the U.K. Brexit from the union; while simultaneously dealing with a lack of tax receipts from the aforementioned banks of Germany and France…

The EU’s only North American ideological ally, Justin from Canada, is essentially useless. Trudeau has used his political self-identification to hurt his own citizens economically;  Canada is experiencing a continued loss in private-sector employment amid the malaise Justin coordinates; and his tenuous (at best) re-election is scheduled for October 21st…

On the other side of the equation, the more nationalist minded Shinzo Abe (Japan) and U.S. President Donald Trump are not encountering the same economic collapse as their Euro-centric counterparts.

Not coincidentally both Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and U.S. President Trump hold the highest domestic approval ratings amid the group of seven nations.  Huh, funny that…. And also not coincidental, both President Trump and PM Abe stand to gain the majority of benefit from a Chinese economic contraction.

So the 2019 G7 in Biarritz, France, ends up happening at a crucial time for those who generationally supported the globalist central-banking “New World Order”.

It all boils down to the economics of things; Globalism -vs- Nationalism, or the multinationals -vs the Main Street yellow vests.

There are trillions at stake amid the layers of banks and multinational financial institutions.

Into that mix of ideology comes President Trump with his MAGA ‘America First’ tariff arsenal in one hand and the massive leverage of the U.S. $20 trillion market in the other.

With both weapons, 30 years of plans for how to use them and a sense of unyielding urgency, what President Trump has begun is a comprehensive global trade reset based on bilateral agreements.

President Trump’s economic plan destroys decades of multilateral terms constructed to the exclusive benefit of corporations and institutions that gained power and wealth over the yellow-vested people.  The scale of consequence within this economic inflection point is generational.

The nationalists (Trump, Abe) with strong economies; and the globalists (Macron, Merkel, Trudeau and Tusk) with ever-weakening economies; and the fence sitters (Johnson and Conte) who are being literally forced, against their preferred outlook – by their respective populations, out of the globalist world and into a populist/nationalist economy.

Quite a dynamic.

This geopolitical struggle is why Emmanuel Macron is fighting so hard to control the optics of this G7.   ...

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Not quite, Ron.  Lots of student loans out there are being abysmally serviced by "Servicers,"   outfits that tke a 1/2 point of the loan in exchange for taking the payments and forwarding them to the securitized Trusts that developed the loan participation packages.  What has made the money explosively available, to even the most credit-unworthy, is that the loans cannot be discharged in bankruptcy proceedings.  The Obligor is stuck with them literally for life.  Meanwhile the Servicers have every incentive to keep tacking on charges so that the principal is never diminished. 

I know of a loan Obligor who  has some $92,000 in debt and the best job she can get is as a deli clerk earning $12.50/hour.  This is in Chicago.  There is no way on the planet that that loan can ever be paid.  What that does is, as Meredith points out, freeze her out of credit markets forever. So, she becomes a societal failure, due to papers she signed at age 18. This situation is what propels the Bernie Sanders campaign.  You say:  Go join the military.  That is not in society's (nor hers) interest. Not every American wants to go shoot people - the vast majority do not.  Right now any recruit is looking at a non-ending, permanent war in Afghanistan, running to 13 years, trying to bring order to tribesmen living in the seventh century.  Who wants to get involved in that? If anything, the military is way too big; should be chopped down by 3/4. 

Jan, you don't have a good concept of the vast opportunities in military service. The person you mentioned was duped by a very corrupt system. I don't know the answer for her but it needs to serve as a warning to everyone. Our college system is woefully lacking in providing real skills that fit real job opportunities. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the federal and state governments along with the ruling class are all to blame for their terrible leadership. If I were in power I could design an educational system that would provide a far better education at less than half what we pay. Advanced education is nearly free for anyone that really wants it. I could write a book on the topic. 

Free Educational Sites https://docs.google.com/document/d/1nkAnzn9R7NH0LqihEeeq4be4ckBgk70YkGKbHsrnbTU/edit