China Faces Economic Collapse

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

"I'll be sleeping with a pretty woman tonight" clearly resonated.

I was down South in Atlanta, Georgia, needed to get some eye medication, and met a charming Southern lass at the pharmacy counter.  Man was she just gorgeous. She was chatting with me and so I asked her what was happening in the Man Department.  She looked me straight in the eye and said, "Actually, I.m taking a break from men right now." 

That was her way of saying I had no competition!   Ah, Southern women.....They remind me of bees flying to the honey.....

[robpublicagain + 6]

If China is going to collapse with 6% growth, what does that mean for the US with only 2% ??????

Chinese debt to GDP at 50.5%

USA debt to GDP at 106.1%

Tell me again - who is going to be toast???

[Guest]

Early days, this isn't all gonna be over in a few months or even years.

Edited September 12, 2019 by Guest

[Hotone + 412]

 

23 hours ago, robpublicagain said:

If China is going to collapse with 6% growth, what does that mean for the US with only 2% ??????

Chinese debt to GDP at 50.5%

USA debt to GDP at 106.1%

Tell me again - who is going to be toast???

Real U.S. debt including all forms of government, state, local, financial and entitlement liabilities comes close to 2,000% of GDP, according to AB Bernstein

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/09/real-us-debt-levels-could-be-a-shocking-2000percent-of-gdp-report-suggests.html

You can see the real time debt map of the US here.  

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

[Zhong Lu + 845]

As far as I'm concerned, China's economy can collapse as long as Trump releases Fannie Mae and pays back the shareholders what they're owed.  

(Consider buying FNMA stock.  Has a tendency to spike like crazy after good news like today.  Can spike all the way to 6 or higher over the next couple of weeks (just look at charts over  previous years).   Bought in AM, already up 7.5%).  

As far as I'm concerned, geopolitics plays second fiddle to GREED. 

Edited September 9, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 9/5/2019 at 5:28 PM, Michael Sanches said:

Wrong. The Fa Lun Gong are a murderous cult. Those who try to leave are murdered. (And, yes, the Communist government is rotten, too.) Choosing between the two is like choosing between Hitler and Stalin for most caring person in the world. Hopefully, they kill each other off so the good people of China can thrive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falun_Gong Read and learn the truth. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Fa Lun Gong is not a murderous cult.  I personally don't care for them, but they're just a bunch of people who believed the wrong thing at the wrong time.  The government policy in China is do whatever you want in private, but if you publicize your spiritualism without permission, the CCP WILL crush your organization. 

That was the Fa Lun Gong's mistake.  A casualty of the long history of Chinese bureaucracy vs Chinese spiritualism.  

Edited September 10, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Fa Lun Gong is not a murderous cult.  I personally don't care for them, but they're just a bunch of people who believed the wrong thing at the wrong time.  Do whatever you want in private, but if you publicize your spiritualism without permission in China, the CCP WILL crush your organization. 

That was the Fa Lun Gong's mistake.  

The same is becoming more true in Russia also. I am for freedom of thought and expression. I am also against statism. I am a Christian but respect agnostics, atheists, and all religions. I love our Constitution and Bill of Rights. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I'm agnostic.  But I'm cool with religious people.  However, every time I think of spiritual movements in China I also think of the Tai Ping so my feelings on Fa Lun Gong is mixed, like almost everything else about China.  

Edited September 10, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/economy/china-us-tariffs-exemptions/index.html

[hahanope18 + 1]

This is one of those obtuse regurgitations of shallow pro-establishment propaganda that make me stop lurking every once in a while and drive me to actually write something.

China is winning the trade war; almost every single metric shows this. China's net exports have increased, foreign investment and presence in key foreign markets have increased, technological independence and superiority have increased, etc. to name only a few out of many factors. Notice how the article in question makes no numbers or even references to anything; just a series of empty assertions that China is economically reliant on Japan and the US, and that China is losing the trade war while America is winning.

Off the top of my head, foreign investments in the US have decreased by a factor of 3 since 2017. Since 2017, the US gave even more ground to China's telecommunications technologies and computer chips, while Boeing has basically been thrown into the gutter after the two planes crashed. Exports in industries like agriculture have been replaced by those of other countries, such as Russia. Even worse, the 10-year recession cycle is nearing its end and the 10y-2y yield curve has inverted, signalling a recession that is about to emerge in the US.

Recently, China announced that it will be investing $400 billion in Iran's infrastructure. Anyone with the semblance of an ability to think for themselves should know that this is not the move of a dying economy.

>“The United States, from the government to the common people, has come to realize that the CCP is an evil regime. It doesn’t hesitate to sacrifice the interests of the Chinese people for the sake of its own survival.”

Hollow ideological rhetoric like this should be a huge red flag, that the article is not a source of objective information, but is in fact wishful propaganda. As other users have pointed out, it is a mouthpiece for the Falun Gong.

Edited September 11, 2019 by hahanope18

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/11/economy/china-us-tariffs-exemptions/index.html

Quoting CNN?

< bangs head against the wall >

Quoting CNN Business?

< banging head against the wall intensifies >

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

6 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Quoting CNN?

< bangs head against the wall >

Quoting CNN Business?

< banging head against the wall intensifies >

CNN never reports on anything that may look good for the US under the current President. So I was surprised and quoted here to show that China is bending and will keep on bending  as we go forward with the trade issues.

They need food, they need medicine, they need tech (or they will steal it) they need energy and the US was and can be again their biggest and most reliable trade partner if the Chinese get their heads together and not be butt hurt because someone stood up to them.

Even now Chinese companies (oil-gas, agri) are trying to get/getting exemptions and they have been getting these exemptions since the trade tariffs came into effect.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, ceo_energemsier said:

CNN never reports on anything that may look good for the US under the current President. So I was surprised and quoted here to show that China is bending and will keep on bending as we go forward with the trade issues.

Got it, thanks for clarifying.

[shadowkin + 584]

For the past several years the CCP publishes that their GDP magically hit 6.5% on the dot and Western media and their readers buy it. 

• China's current account in trade has been decreasing every year since 2015, hitting a 15 year low last year of $49 billion
• China just eliminated 2 foreign investment quotas to fight capital flight and encourage inflows even though 2/3 of existing quotas are unused
• China is wooing several US financial institutions, also to fight capital flight, and is planning a full court press of conferences to attract Fortune 500 companies
• Unaccounted for outflows by rich Chinese (necessarily connected to the CCP) reached a near record $88 billion in Q1

This is the latest evidence that Trump's retaliation against nearly 40 years of Chinese economic warfare is working. Good riddance to the old guard politicians of both parties who permitted China to act with impunity for so long.

[shadowkin + 584]

On 9/4/2019 at 7:28 AM, Hotone said:

Seems that China is still doing OK; the trade surplus gap with America is widening in spite of the trade war:

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/04/us-trade-deficit-shrinks-but-shortfall-with-china-widens

and US investment into China is increasing:

https://youtu.be/5Ez5MYyURU4

Trump had better issue his executive order for US companies to get out of China for real.

Incorrect see above

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 hours ago, hahanope18 said:

This is one of those obtuse regurgitations of shallow pro-establishment propaganda that make me stop lurking every once in a while and drive me to actually write something.

China is winning the trade war; almost every single metric shows this. China's net exports have increased, foreign investment and presence in key foreign markets have increased, technological independence and superiority have increased, etc. to name only a few out of many factors. Notice how the article in question makes no numbers or even references to anything; just a series of empty assertions that China is economically reliant on Japan and the US, and that China is losing the trade war while America is winning.

Off the top of my head, foreign investments in the US have decreased by a factor of 3 since 2017. Since 2017, the US gave even more ground to China's telecommunications technologies and computer chips, while Boeing has basically been thrown into the gutter after the two planes crashed. Exports in industries like agriculture have been replaced by those of other countries, such as Russia. Even worse, the 10-year recession cycle is nearing its end and the 10y-2y yield curve has inverted, signalling a recession that is about to emerge in the US.

Recently, China announced that it will be investing $400 billion in Iran's infrastructure. Anyone with the semblance of an ability to think for themselves should know that this is not the move of a dying economy.

>“The United States, from the government to the common people, has come to realize that the CCP is an evil regime. It doesn’t hesitate to sacrifice the interests of the Chinese people for the sake of its own survival.”

Hollow ideological rhetoric like this should be a huge red flag, that the article is not a source of objective information, but is in fact wishful propaganda. As other users have pointed out, it is a mouthpiece for the Falun Gong.

Spoken like a mouthpiece of the CCP. At least a fellow traveler. 

[Boat + 1,315]

I sappose it will be years from now to find out how many companies left China for the US. But if companies relocate in countries that already have a bad trade imbalance with the US will that be called a victory or an “at least he tried”. 

[Guest]

On 9/9/2019 at 7:49 PM, Hotone said:

Real U.S. debt including all forms of government, state, local, financial and entitlement liabilities comes close to 2,000% of GDP, according to AB Bernstein

You can see the real time debt map of the US here. 

Are they less scary now then?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

As trade war deepens, a state-owned insurer in China helps soften the blow

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-deepens-state-owned-070812892.html

 

 

U.S., China grant trade concessions as fresh talks loom

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-exempts-16-types-u-061009973.html

 

 

Trade War: China’s Slowdown Gets Even More Worrying

 

https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/09/overvalued-tech-stocks-lose-market-value-again-today/

 

[Hotone + 412]

19 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Are they less scary now then?

The US is the only country in the world with such large unfunded liabilities. Other developed countries in Europe, for example, have welfare which are adequately funded through higher taxes. Developing countries like China and India, provide little welfare.

At some point in the future, there will be a crisis when America can't pay the debts it owes. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the world's reliance on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is too risky and proposed to replace it with a new Digital currency.

https://www.coindesk.com/bank-of-england-governor-calls-for-digital-currency-replacement-to-the-dollar

Edited September 12, 2019 by Hotone
Typo

[Guest]

He has also showed his very biased anti Brexit stance throughout the process, despite the fact The Bank of England is meant to be impartial to political issues. I don't really care what he says about anything. 

And good luck with the digital stuff Facebook. Had nothing but anti trust issues for years. ''Hmm what shall we do next, seeing as we are so popular?''    '' Let's bring out a currency? '' 

Also, as always here, the thread title is completely ignored, and twisted to ''well the USA has these issues'' , ''what about the USA and this...?'' ....    if you want to compare the issues of China v USA this thread will have 10,000 comments before October. 

China are losing, deal with it. I have no time for further nonsense. 

Edited September 12, 2019 by Guest

[Zhong Lu + 845]

"We'll be home by Christmas."

"Fannie Mae (FNMA) will soon be trading in the 10s."

"The trade war will end soon."

I've heard it all before.  

Edited September 12, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[ronwagn + 6,290]

15 hours ago, Boat said:

I sappose it will be years from now to find out how many companies left China for the US. But if companies relocate in countries that already have a bad trade imbalance with the US will that be called a victory or an “at least he tried”. 

The wages in China are, reportedly, nearing that of Mexico. There are many countries with lower standards of living and who would love to produce products for companies. Their wages are lower than the Chinese now offer. The main gains for us is weakening China, our greatest competitor worldwide, gaining new or better friends, lower prices, less technology theft, less strong arming of  our companies by China. 

American companies have to find a way to beat Chinese production or farm out production. If they cannot, China wins. If China decides to play fair they can keep most of the production but once they lose it they may not get it back. They are going to focus on meeting the needs of their own people with their own products.That is their best choice anyway. Cheap Chinese products have been great for consumers, but not for our well being as a nation in the long run. 

[shadowkin + 584]

9 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

"We'll be home by Christmas."

"Fannie Mae (FNMA) will soon be trading in the 10s."

"The trade war will end soon."

I've heard it all before.  

FNMA closed today at 3.57

Whose saying trade wars ever end? They wax and wane but never end and take various forms.