DayTrader

Yawn... Parliament Poised to Force Brexit Delay Until Jan. 31

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(edited)

32 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Talk about governmental deadlock and stagnation!

Yep, it's disgusting. Whole thing turned into ''we never voted leave without a deal'' by the remoaners, then was a new law made literally so we can't leave without one. There is a smugness to the whole ''haha you can't leave'', I've watched live UK Parliament footage for the last few months. Then came the whole proroguing thing where Johnson saw The Queen and got permission, but they still kick off about it. Then he kinda hints he is quite willing to break the 'not leaving without deal' law. 

Next comes this Yellowhammer shit, that just happens to be 'found' - like on a park bench or in a pub or something ridiculous. The fearmongering nonsense is rampant. And people buying it. Ooh we won't have medicine, there'll be build ups at Dover. Complete drivel. Everyone here utterly sick of it. Parts of government doing all they can to stop it. The Lib Dems even admit ''we would cancel Brexit.''  

Democracy. Love it. 

Personally I can't wait. I want people to have a bit more respect and pride in their country. We got through the Plague, Great Fire of London,  2 World wars, etc etc you know? Like hundreds of years of history. We got by fine, we are still here.

But after 40 years in this 'pact' we couldn't possibly cope on our own?? Such an insult. Grow a pair and let's just get the hell out and prove it. We owe Europe nothing. We are leaving. Deal with it. 

 

Edited by DayTrader
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I’ve got no ‘skin in the game’, but I agree with you wholeheartedly!

As a Yank, I just can’t imagine having some unelected wanker(s) [love that word😄] having ANY control over my country.

I am sure that there will be some ‘teething problems’ if/when they exit, but I think that the Brits will overcome and be fine....probably better.

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I agree, but there would be teething problems even with a deal. So let's just leave and then all of us get on with our lives.

It better not be 'if'. There will be uproar.

And yes, unelected, unremovable wankers.

Fact.

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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

I agree, but there would be teething problems even with a deal. So let's just leave and then all of us get on with our lives.

100 % agree.

I actually think the EU should grow a pair and show the UK the window if they don't want to use the door. 

1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

And yes, unelected, unremovable wankers.

Fact.

Can you be more specific please? which wankers did you not elect - directly or indirectly. 

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8 hours ago, DayTrader said:

We owe Europe nothing. We are leaving. Deal with it. 

Have you considered that Europe doesn't owe the UK anything? Have you considered that overall the UK economy might loose?

I have no problem with Brexit, really. But all the BS arguments that UK economy will be better off makes me sick. The national identity / pride argument I respect. 

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On 9/4/2019 at 10:31 PM, Jan van Eck said:

The EU leadership and bureaucrats in Brussels have bigger problems than figuring out some Plan for trade and labor mobility with Britain.  They have to ensure that the price of leaving is so painful that no other sovereign State will bolt.  The format for making it painful would be the American civil war of 1861.  Additional to blockade of the sea ports, bombardment and starvation of the civilian population of Vicksburg, the slaughter at Shiloh, and General Sherman marching through Georgia burning anything and everything right to the ground, and that was the direct punishment for trying to "Leave," the North sent in what were known as "carpetbaggers" as occupying bureaucrats to run the defeated Leavers essentially as Receivers, subjugating the local population into servitude. 

The EU might lose the Southern Rim of countries due to the straight-jacket of the Euro.  If that were to happen, and the Leavers then re-denominate their debt into local currencies, and then devalue those currencies, the big German banks would take a huge hit.  The Leavers cannot be permitted to do that.  So, how to discourage?  Why, just make Britain an example of what happens if you attempt to dump the EU. 

Now Theresa May understood the consequences perfectly well, and while Britain was not a Euro country, it had these millions of outside nationals living there.  The Government of say Poland was not keen on having some 900,000 of its nationals come flooding back; there would be no work for them, and the Government had no realistic means to provide support.  Analogously, there are now some 3.7 million EU nationals living in the UK  (and a ton of other foreigners, and lots of Indian nationals). Prime Minister May thus assured the EU that those foreign nationals could stay, and would not be deported.  Well, that is all very nice, but if the Government changes, then the policies of the precedent government go down the drain with a great big flush.  

And then what?  Is the EU, with its ossified labour markets, able to absorb a flood of 3.7 million "Returnees"?  No chance.  So to make sure that the Southern Rim understood what would happen to them  (including the expulsion of migrant Greeks, Italians, and Spaniards), they have to make an example of Britain.   Does Boris "BoJo" Johnson understand any of that?  I am betting that, with his hubris, he does not grasp the resolve of that European Deep State, and he will totally screw it up. 

Unemployment rate of Poland ist down from 10 % in 2014 to 3,7% in April 2019. Poland is keen to get its people back.

Wrong facts and wrong conclusion. 48 % of UKs exports go to EU and only 6% of EUs exports go to UK. Guess who will suffer more from Brexit.

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Have you considered that Europe doesn't owe the UK anything? Have you considered that overall the UK economy might loose?

I have no problem with Brexit, really. But all the BS arguments that UK economy will be better off makes me sick. The national identity / pride argument I respect. 

I didn't mention economy once I believe, but it may be better, maybe worse. It will take bit of time but I think we will thrive because of this. There is a big old world out there if the EU doesn't wanna trade / wants to cause issues and wants to spite themselves. But I'm utterly bored of the fear mongering. 

Yes, neither of us owe the other anything. (Well, they want £1 billion a month to be a member of EU, and they want £39 billion as part of us leaving, but apart from that). And no that's not a typo. Billion.

So let's get on with it. Deal or no deal, there'll be a transition period. This delay is no good for anyone. I just wish people respected the vote in our government and didn't do all they can to try and stop it. We have a vote, oh I don't like the result of that. Talk of putting it to the people again etc, it's a joke. As I said before, if Remain wins shall we say best of 3? At what point will the vote be acted upon? I think it's disgusting and the opposition acting awfully, doing all they can to delay and stop it, as if 17 million people are gonna let this go. The arrogance is astounding. 

I also find it rather odd that when Brexit is mentioned people want to almost happily suggest ''well Britain will suffer''. This to me proves that people know if this is the case, then they will suffer too, and they are simply bitter about the result in the first place. It would be such a better world if people could say ''all the best''. If the UK will suffer, and no one else, we would have been out by now. The EU does not want anyone to have the audacity to leave. Think about why that is. 

Edited by DayTrader
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3 hours ago, DocManfred said:

Wrong facts and wrong conclusion. 48 % of UKs exports go to EU and only 6% of EUs exports go to UK. Guess who will suffer more from Brexit.

Has it ever occurred to you that the same quantities of exports and imports will continue to flow, post-Brexit?  

Brexit is a political decision that is wrapped up in issues of movement of people, living/squatting rights, passport abolishment, that sort of thing.  There is no evidence that either the UK or the EU is suddenly going to impose harsh tariffs on goods being sold back and forth.  Personally, I doubt that any tariffs will be established.  I predict the goods will continue to flow.  OK, so there will be a new raft of customs inspectors and paperwork to fill out.  So what?  the goods will flow. 

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(edited)

11 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

There is no evidence that either the UK or the EU is suddenly going to impose harsh tariffs on goods being sold back and forth.  Personally, I doubt that any tariffs will be established.  I predict the goods will continue to flow.  OK, so there will be a new raft of customs inspectors and paperwork to fill out.  So what?  the goods will flow. 

Exactly. We currently do all this trade back and forth due to business and cost. Why would we suddenly start imposing tariffs on each other so we all lose out?!  ''Ooh now you have left the EU I don't want your products (which I currently buy for their quality and cost) so I will go elsewhere and pay more''. Ok. Crack on, see if we care. 

#Trump/Johnson

Plenty of other countries who will buy it. It's a big world out there. 

Edited by DayTrader

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(edited)

Oh and that reminds me. When Trump and Johnson met, there were people on here even then saying ''yeah well it won't be as good as you think'' , ''Trump just thinking of USA'' etc.

So bored, yet weirdly entertained by the negativity. Maybe because it will be all the sweeter when proved correct. 

As I say, if ONLY the UK will suffer, why do NON UK residents have such strong opinions about it? Or do you just hate the UK that much that you want it all to fail?

How can a country possibly get by without the EU?? It's an outrageous thought isn't it?  We have got by for thousands of years, but suddenly, after 40 years in this crap, we couldn't possibly survive. 

Edited by DayTrader

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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

didn't mention economy once I believe, but it may be better, maybe worse.

Sorry. 

I made that comment because it seemed to be an argument for the leave campaign. 

1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

It will take bit of time but I think we will thrive because of this. There is a big old world out there if the EU doesn't wanna trade / wants to cause issues and wants to spite themselves.

The UK trades with the world now. 

I just believe that being part of large trading block allows you to negotiate better terms in global trade deals. We will find out I guess. 

Agree on the UK - EU trade.

1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

So let's get on with it. Deal or no deal, there'll be a transition period. This delay is no good for anyone.

100 % agree. 

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43 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

As I say, if ONLY the UK will suffer, why do NON UK residents have such strong opinions about it? Or do you just hate the UK that much that you want it all to fail?

I am really good with brexit. Seriously. 

What I am NOT good with is many people telling outright lies about what the European project actually is. Brexit is often used as a proxy to critize the EU. 

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51 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Exactly. We currently do all this trade back and forth due to business and cost. Why would we suddenly start imposing tariffs on each other so we all lose out?!  ''Ooh now you have left the EU I don't want your products (which I currently buy for their quality and cost) so I will go elsewhere and pay more''. Ok. Crack on, see if we care. 

#Trump/Johnson

Plenty of other countries who will buy it. It's a big world out there. 

Not really sure it is so simple. As jan will tell you - once supply chains have been created it can take quite a lot to disrupt them. 

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(edited)

Haha all good man, didn't mean you directly. And yes it is (the criticize bit). 

Maybe so. If people wanna talk tariffs though we'll impose them back. What good is that?

 

Edited by DayTrader

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47 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Has it ever occurred to you that the same quantities of exports and imports will continue to flow, post-Brexit?  

Brexit is a political decision that is wrapped up in issues of movement of people, living/squatting rights, passport abolishment, that sort of thing.  There is no evidence that either the UK or the EU is suddenly going to impose harsh tariffs on goods being sold back and forth.  Personally, I doubt that any tariffs will be established.  I predict the goods will continue to flow.  OK, so there will be a new raft of customs inspectors and paperwork to fill out.  So what?  the goods will flow. 

This is wishfull thinking. What is the benefit of any free trade agreement if you could have that conditions of trade without it ?

Trade between UK and EU has already significantly declined since the Brexit referendum and the decline will accelerate strongly if a hard Brexit occurs. UK will also loose trade with non EU countries in case of a Brexit since it can no longer trade on basis of the numerous free trade agreements the EU concluded.

People of any nation can take any decission. However they have to live with the consequences.

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Just now, DocManfred said:

This is wishful thinking. What is the benefit of any free trade agreement if you could have that conditions of trade without it ?

Nothing wishful about it.  The UK and the EU have a tightly intertwined network of sales of parts and services.  Name the product:  autos, airplanes, ships, whatever - and there are parts being built across the Channel.  SO a German engine is fitted to a Bentley, and a Rolls engine is fitted to an Airbus;  what makes you think this stops because politicians create a Brexit?   It doesn't.  Nothing stops. The only question is: is one side going to start putting tariffs on the stuff?  Answer: probably not.  That would invite retaliatory tariffs.  Then the politicians start getting serious flack.  If Dutch cucumbers are not going to be bought in England, then where do the Dutch go sell the surplus cucumbers?  Or, are they going to go rot in the field?  

See, it has gotten too intertwined to let some Brexit event disrupt all that.  I predict the goods will continue to flow. 

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From a Bentley and a Rolls to cucumbers. I love it. 

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1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

Nothing wishful about it.  The UK and the EU have a tightly intertwined network of sales of parts and services.  Name the product:  autos, airplanes, ships, whatever - and there are parts being built across the Channel.  SO a German engine is fitted to a Bentley, and a Rolls engine is fitted to an Airbus;  what makes you think this stops because politicians create a Brexit?   It doesn't.  Nothing stops. The only question is: is one side going to start putting tariffs on the stuff?  Answer: probably not.  That would invite retaliatory tariffs.  Then the politicians start getting serious flack.  If Dutch cucumbers are not going to be bought in England, then where do the Dutch go sell the surplus cucumbers?  Or, are they going to go rot in the field?  

See, it has gotten too intertwined to let some Brexit event disrupt all that.  I predict the goods will continue to flow. 

The cross border supply chains you describe have developed due to the membership of the UK and the remaining EU countries in common market. This has facilitated trade, see the chart below.

UK_trade_before_and_after_EU.png.c33f38535df90ba940b4eebd5a452e70.png

The additional bureaucracy caused by a hard border will increase cost due to extension of transport time, lead times and working capital. As a consequence non-domestic exporting companies will leave UK and their cross border supply chains will disappear. 

Some automotive factories in UK have already decided to leave and will be closed soon. Nissan decided to close their factory in Wales. Japan concluded a free trade agreement with EU recently which eliminated all tariffs, and more important all non-tariff barriers to the EU. In contrast tariff and non-tariff barriers will be build-up between UK and EU. So its cheaper for Nissan to manufacture in Japan and to export their cars frictionless into the EU than to produce in UK with new hurdles and higher cost.

There is a BBC article about the decline of the UK car industry below. "Brexit shutdown slashes UK car production by 45%", https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48451024

This also holds for the finance sector and many other exporting industries, e.g. pharma, aerospace (Airbus).

I do not say that there will be no more trade between UK and EU. Of course some trade will go on with the EU, e.g. cucumbers.

I personally know numerous sectors and companies in the UK and their trade relationsships globally. I believe UK will loose many companies, factories, jobs and a significant amount of national income.

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13 hours ago, DayTrader said:

WOW - Geoffrey Cox very Winstonian, Ordeuuur Ordeuuur, the speaker of the house is amazing, what a quick mind he has, love to het him pissed.

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