James Regan

Oil Production Growth In U.S. Grinds To A Halt

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3 hours ago, SKEP said:

 

I specifically referenced the weekly Production report survey.

If you read my past posts in the past weekly Inventory Report is a JOKE. 

IT DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERSTION ALL THE INPUTS AND OUTPUTS.

MOST OIL ANSLYST ARE WORTHLESS.

This all will change when the supply surplus grows from today's 900K/day to 2, 3, or 4 mm bbls/day.  Sometime in 2020 the day of reckoning is coming 

Record 12.5 mm bbls/day last week a good number. 

Jamie pay attention . . . get your facts straight

So you say the inventory number is crap because it didn't do what you wanted but the production number is great because it did.   The numbers are both based on surveys so how can one be good and the other not?  LOLOLOLOL!  

Believe what you want but the US inventory of crude and refined products is being drained due to exports and domestic consumption.  

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3 minutes ago, wrs said:

So you say the inventory number is crap because it didn't do what you wanted but the production number is great because it did.   The numbers are both based on surveys so how can one be good and the other not?  LOLOLOLOL!  

Believe what you want but the US inventory of crude and refined products is being drained due to exports and domestic consumption.  

No

You're wrong. 

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48 minutes ago, SKEP said:

No

You're wrong. 

LOL, try to be specific in your response.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, wrs said:

LOL, try to be specific in your response.

Can't be any more specific .  You can be either Right or Wrong.

YOU ARE WRONG. Period

 

Edited by SKEP

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(edited)

6 hours ago, SKEP said:

 

I specifically referenced the weekly Production report survey.

If you read my past posts in the past weekly Inventory Report is a JOKE. 

IT DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERSTION ALL THE INPUTS AND OUTPUTS.

MOST OIL ANSLYST ARE WORTHLESS.

This all will change when the supply surplus grows from today's 900K/day to 2, 3, or 4 mm bbls/day.  Sometime in 2020 the day of reckoning is coming 

Record 12.5 mm bbls/day last week a good number. 

Jamie pay attention . . . get your facts straight

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a surprise crude oil inventory build of 401,000 barrels for the week ending Aug 29, compared to analyst expectations of a 3.50-million…

OH LOOK AT THAT ANOTHER SURPRISE.....AN ESTIMATED SURPRISE EVEN WTH DOES THAT MEAN?

Edited by James Regan
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(edited)

According to the EIA production growth has gone and production has fallen the last three months in a row.

 

https://www.ino.com/blog/2019/09/u-s-crude-production-growth-paused-in-1h19/

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 125,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 12.207 mmbd.

In fact since the beginning of the year the weeklies have all overstated the production for the month.

Who is wrong SKEP?

 

 

Edited by wrs
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(edited)

18 hours ago, wrs said:

Believe what you want but the US inventory of crude and refined products is being drained due to exports and domestic consumption.  

I agree drained due to exports and consumption.  Analyst are to lazy to put together a model taking into consideration imports/exports, refining inputs, product consumption, etc etc etc.

Two weeks ago Inv drops 10 mm . . . . it was all drop in imports and increase exports.  

You mention consumption YES.  Seasonal summer consumption accounts for drop in inventory last few months.  THIS IS VERY NORMAL.  Instead oil price goes up TIGHT SUPPLY ! TIGHT SUPPLY !  BUY ! BUY ! BUY !

Exports have not moved too much yet . . .  pretty steady around 3 mm/day . . .  

Oil analyst don't talk about consumption  They all start crying "tight supply" . However as the smart analyst have said  . .  The decline of the inventory over last couple of months is attributed to normal seasonal demand , nothing more.  They add that the Inv decline will end as soon as the weather cools.

OPEC and their favorite oil analyst told us the first 6 months of the year the cuts were working and oil was in tight supply. Not true as Orbital Insight satellite survey showed monthly Inv increases for a total 142 mm bbls over supply for that period.

Saudis picked the peak production month in 2018 (10.6 mm bbls/day) to determine their "cut"of 300k bbls to 10.3 .  On reality Saudi production first half 2019 avg 10 mm/day. This is no rrduction. Saudis exported same amount as record 2018. Don't fall for their games.

Facts don't matter.  One doesn't know what to believe.  People by OPEC false narrative when over supply 900k bbls/day.  All hell will break loose when that surplus growsto 2 mm bbls +

Edited by SKEP

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16 hours ago, Marcin said:

no Malacca dilemmmas of China etc. so why ?

Just curious, are you Malaysian?

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(edited)

16 hours ago, James Regan said:

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has estimated a surprise crude oil inventory build of 401,000 barrels for the week ending Aug 29, compared to analyst expectations of a 3.50-million…

OH LOOK AT THAT ANOTHER SURPRISE.....AN ESTIMATED SURPRISE EVEN WTH DOES THAT MEAN?

Jamie please work on your reading comprehension.  I'll say it again slowly .  I  . . . . think  . . . . .  weekly  . . . . inventory . . . .  is  . . . . a    . . . .  JOKE.  

 I'm talking about THE WEEKLY U.S. PRODUCTION NUMBER .  It has proven to be fairly accurate.

Edited by SKEP

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12 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Jamie please work on your reading comprehension.  I say it again slowly .  I  . . . . think  . . . . .  weekly  . . . . inventory . . . .  is  . . . . a    . . . .  JOKE.  

 I'm talking about THE WEEKLY U.S. PRODUCTION NUMBER .  It has proven to be fairly accurate.

@SKEP @James Regan

There seems to be a bit of communication misunderstanding here, between weekly inventory and weekly production numbers.

Both of you are intelligent, both of you make valid points, and I think both of you actually agree with each other's views than disagree on this, but semantics and words somehow seem to be screwing up the debate a bit.

Just an observation; I may be totally wrong here.  Carry on.

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1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Just an observation; I may be totally wrong here.  Carry on.

To no great surprise, your observation is trenchantly correct.  They are talking past each other. Cheers.

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(edited)

21 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

To no great surprise, your observation is trenchantly correct.  They are talking past each other. Cheers.

Jan ,

I thought you said you were no longer going to post on this blog.  Something about your elite perspective . . . 

Surprised to see you're still around to share your opinion.

Talking past each other ? It's a debate.  

Better than those that talk down to other posters.  Right ?

Edited by SKEP

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On 9/4/2019 at 9:28 PM, kshithij Sharma said:

USA will not overproduce oil. USA's objective is to ensure energy independence and it will get to that level and then stop increasing further. USA will not increase oil production beyond 12.5-13 million barrels a day as that is the level needed to achieve full energy independence. Once that level is reached, USA will stop further increase. It can be done via taxes or blocking permits.

Bit oil price has nothing to do with the oil production

“The USA” has little to say about how much oil “it” produces. Production levels depend on the choices of individual companies that are a result of oil price, profitability, availability of money, and of course on the underlying baseload NFA production. 

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If you think that the EPA is some toothless, rubber stamping federal agency, I suggest that you look up the actual CFA’s (Code of Federal Regulations) and actually read the Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act, CERCLA and RCRA. 

Once you have done that, tell me which European country is as stringent.

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Rig count continues it's relentless decline, another 4 oil rigs stacked this week.  Production can't increase with rigs being stacked.

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16 hours ago, SKEP said:

Glad to see your back

I assure you that I am not "back."  What you apparently are reading is some insolent imitation done by an anonymous doppelganger.  Hey "you can't trust anything on the internet these days."   Some Bush Supporter wrote that one. 

P.S.  I conclude that you are Polish.  You keep writing "your" instead of "you are" or the abbreviation "you're."  Common Polish error in writing English.   See?  You leave those tell-tale crumbs lying around, and the pseudonym name is beaten.  We will find you.  Cheers.

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20 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

To no great surprise, your observation is trenchantly correct.  They are talking past each other. Cheers.

You kill me Jan seriously.

Just the 'cheers' , like 'enough said' is gold, let alone trenchantly   :)

 

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10 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

You kill me Jan seriously.

Just the 'cheers' , like 'enough said' is gold, let alone trenchantly   :)

 

My doppelganger puts in vast amounts of time for the specific purpose of  Doing you.  Therefore, ensure that your are consistently obsequious to the grandmaster!   The doppelganger rules with an iron fist.  

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

ensure that your are consistently

Well I believe the doppelganger has been caught out immediately.

@Jan van Eck would not make these schoolboy errors. 

Edited by DayTrader
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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

I assure you that I am not "back."  What you apparently are reading is some insolent imitation done by an anonymous doppelganger.  Hey "you can't trust anything on the internet these days."   Some Bush Supporter wrote that one. 

P.S.  I conclude that you are Polish.  You keep writing "your" instead of "you are" or the abbreviation "you're."  Common Polish error in writing English.   See?  You leave those tell-tale crumbs lying around, and the pseudonym name is beaten.  We will find you.  Cheers.

The software auto correct does. A pain in the but.

You elitist nitpick such silly little things.  

People like you are scarey.  Thank God, if not for the Allies the world would be run by collaborators like you.

Funny how you consider yourself an entrepreneur while your you're yours D.J Engineering leeches off of government contracts to survive.

You promised you were leaving because this blog was beneath you.  Please honor your commitment .  

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(edited)

@SKEP   chill out jeez.

Edited by DayTrader

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On 9/5/2019 at 8:05 PM, wrs said:

According to the EIA production growth has gone and production has fallen the last three months in a row.

 

https://www.ino.com/blog/2019/09/u-s-crude-production-growth-paused-in-1h19/

The EIA-914 Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) figure was 125,000 b/d lower than the weekly data reported by EIA in the Weekly Petroleum Supply Report (WPSR), averaged over the month, of 12.207 mmbd.

In fact since the beginning of the year the weeklies have all overstated the production for the month.

Who is wrong SKEP?

 

 

I hate to have to correct you again. 

I am referencing week ending Aug 23rd of 12.5 mm bbls/day production.

The number you point to is June number that was off 125 k over several proceeding months . . . a rounding error. 

Aug 23rd is hardly "harsh" and hardly "crashing"

Even the report you link makes mention of the fact that Permian had to slow due to lack of pipeline take away capacity. The same report projected year Ind production of 12.9 mm bbls/day .  That's increase of 1.1 mm bbls/day for the year.  Respectable.

Work on your math and reading comprehension. You must have been out sick the day they taught math in 5th grade.

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OK don't.

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(edited)

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

You elitist

Well, good to see you recognize my inherent superiority in all things intellectual.  At least you are awake!

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

People like you are scarey.

Yup!  Give you full points for that one!  There are even folks out there that have confused me with a Wampa,  Wampa ice creatures were carnivorous predatory reptomammals indigenous to the remote Outer Rim Territories' ice planet Hoth. OK, maybe just Bigfoot, but that is seriously downscale in the scary department!

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

Thank God, if not for the Allies the world would be run by collaborators like you.

My Dad was a senior Officer in the Dutch Army.  He was underground for six years.  His regiment of Partisans held down two whole divisions of the Wehrmacht who were badly needed on the Russian Front, not a bad accomplishment.  How'd you do in your personal fight against the fascists? 

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

Funny how you consider yourself an entrepreneur while your you're yours D.J Engineering leeches off of government contracts to survive.

Sorry, I don't do govt contracts.  Never have, never will.  I remain external to US citizenship and by definition am excluded from either a security clearance or a military contract.  Indeed, I do not even set foot on any US military base.  Or for that matter, anybody else's military base.  Right now I manufacture machinery to convert cow manure into valuable products.   I also build electric commuter bicycles. Tame enough for you?

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

You promised you were leaving because this blog was beneath you.

It's a Forum, not a blog.  Back by popular demand.  What can I say, I am like a moth drawn to the flame.  Meanwhile, stay off the Google, it gets you into trouble.  You keep looking at some other corporation.  By the way, I find Polish women seriously good-looking. Why not publish a picture of yourself?  Do show us your Slavic handsome good looks!  

Edited by Jan van Eck
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35 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Work on your math and reading comprehension. You must have been out sick the day they taught math in 5th grade.

Watch out there, SKEP, you are criticizing one of the most accomplished men in the oil business.  He outranks you all day long.  I would suggest a genuflection.  A bit of public self-abasement will go a long way. 

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