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Tom Kirkman

In Saudi Shocker, Al-Falih Ousted As Energy Minister, Replaced By MbS' Half-Brother

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The Tylers at ZeroHedge weigh in with their analysis of the Saudi Oil Soap Opera.  It ain't pretty.

In Saudi Shocker, Al-Falih Ousted As Energy Minister, Replaced By MbS' Half-Brother

... And so AbS now has the unenviable task of sending oil price spiking, something which will be put to the test as soon as next week, when OPEC and OPEC+ are scheduled to meet on Sept. 12 in Abu Dhabi to review their strategy to shore up global oil markets. Oil traders will be waiting to see whether the change of ministers will mean a change in Saudi policy.

Alas, since the ongoing oil price weakness has little to do with supply and everything to do with declining global demand for oil, especially by China, not to mention an energy independent America, Abdulaziz bin Salman's reign as Saudi energy minister may be the shortest yet as the prospect for sharply higher oil prices - absent a war in the Middle East of course - is virtually nil.

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Important post.  Thanks Tom.

 

Here are a few previous related articles.

September 1, 2019 – Reuters
New Saudi anti-corruption chief to target public servants
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-corruption/new-saudi-anti-corruption-chief-to-target-public-servants-idUSKCN1VM10X

The Corbett Report has covered the Saudi Arabia purge in-depth circa November 2017.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkXyWPVkqcg&feature=youtu.be&t=10m6s

 

On August 12, 2019, Andrew Hecht had this story entitled:
What’s the status of the Saudi Aramco IPO?
https://beforeitsnews.com/financial-markets/2019/08/whats-the-status-of-the-saudi-aramco-ipo-3316250.html

 

By Cyril Widdershoven – Sep 02, 2019 at OilPrice.com
The Silent Power Struggle Within Saudi Arabia
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Silent-Power-Struggle-Within-Saudi-Arabia.html

 

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15 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Alas, since the ongoing oil price weakness has little to do with supply and everything to do with declining global demand for oil, especially by China, not to mention an energy independent America, Abdulaziz bin Salman's reign as Saudi energy minister may be the shortest yet as the prospect for sharply higher oil prices - absent a war in the Middle East of course - is virtually nil.

HE Khalid Al Falih has a long track record of promising reform and delivering little, what we'd call in the west lipstick on a pig, maybe even going backwards, on the corruption front and the family wealth has expanded quite a bit, more than his public service can justify. Promising everything in a land that embraces a lack of accountability requires someone to shift the blame too. Al Falih pulled an Ickaris, flying too close to the sun, for that game. His is a very smart man, don't write him off.

The fundamentals at play haven't changed. Oil prices aren't high enough, the IPO is beyond flawed, and much of that is independent of oil prices, it's the structure and culture of Aramco. And even if oil prices were high, the math going forward works against KSA without fundamental reform with the exploding youth population. Going to a movie theater and women driving is not fundamental economic reform. Where does a fundamentally uneducated young man (MBS only is educated IK where honest critiques for learning would be impossible), yet exceptionally skillful at internal palace intrigue, and quite of sorts with most of the world, get advice. Is MBS capable of hearing advice? Probably not. But MBS can be sold a line of flattering crappola although even he knew McKinsey's notion of more hadjs per year was undoable.

The writer Lawrence Wright calls Saudi Arabia "the paralyzed chicken." By historical and societal standards the country is so, so, so, set up for revolution. But the Saudi people look around them. The countries that tried the Arab Spring, all got worse, and partly because Saudi themselves funded repression, or in the case of Bahrain, essentially invaded to protect the system (US was obscenely quite there, Obama lacking the courage of his weak convictions). KSA is trapped in their own system. If South Africa could emerge from apartheid and not immediately descend into civil war, surely KSA can transition too. Where there is life, there is always hope. But if you are a actuarial, you bet against them.

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19 minutes ago, John Foote said:

The fundamentals at play haven't changed. Oil prices aren't high enough, the IPO is beyond flawed, and much of that is independent of oil prices, it's the structure and culture of Aramco. And even if oil prices were high, the math going forward works against KSA without fundamental reform with the exploding youth population. Going to a movie theater and women driving is not fundamental economic reform.

^ Nailed it.

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anyone see ABS doing anything better? Larger cuts in Opec production?  Oil prices to 75-80 by year end?

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