Tom Kirkman

Drone attacks cause fire at two Saudi Aramco facilities, blaze now under control

Recommended Posts

41 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

In the second photo, I find it interesting that the impacts on all four tanks seem to be on an identical azimuth and height on the tanks.

I am no drone expert, but this seems to be exceptional accuracy/targetting if you are assuming a pre-programmed flight path based on GPS. If it was remotely piloted, perhaps.

I am having a hard time accepting the ‘programmed drone’ theory.

Not difficult to envision at all.  Your drone flies at a specified height on a specified velocity/bearing.  Testing shows exactly the angle of descent/timing to achieve a zero, zero intercept and then you simply program the required GPS coordinates at which to turn over and descend.  Bloody simple programming any C++ student could do it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Feel free to introduce me!

Jan, there is a protocol for meeting 2 kilos of a butt load, you must be strategicaly positioned... 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, canadas canadas said:

In other words, 126 gallons is 3 barrels.

She would need to be very drunk to date anyone on this forum Jan and CEO included, so it would actually be 4.06 barrels of the amber nectar...

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Not difficult to envision at all.  Your drone flies at a specified height on a specified velocity/bearing.  Testing shows exactly the angle of descent/timing to achieve a zero, zero intercept and then you simply program the required GPS coordinates at which to turn over and descend.  Bloody simple programming any C++ student could do it.

Okay, in a perfect world you may be correct. Flying over hundreds of kilometers of undulating desert at low altitude, headwinds/tailwinds, perfectly uniform operation of control surfaces in each drone, etc... I would not expect uniform impacts. Furthermore, what is the accuracy of GPS? It is +/- a certain measure of length.

No doubt you could program it, the engineering and the real world is something else entirely.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, in a perfect world you may be correct. Flying over hundreds of kilometers of undulating desert at low altitude, headwinds/tailwinds, perfectly uniform operation of control surfaces in each drone, etc... I would not expect uniform impacts. Furthermore, what is the accuracy of GPS? It is +/- a certain measure of length.

No doubt you could program it, the engineering and the real world is something else entirely.

Uh, you can buy the guidance systems and modify them off any drone with a GPS fix of less than a meter.  If that is too complex for you, you can buy off the shelf programmable RC airplane guidance with TV video as well! Why I stated testing to get the timing turn over fixed angle of descent.  Only requires a single test to get the distance on bearing at which to turn over for a zero zero. 

This is not 1990 anymore........ 

PS: You do realize that for over a decade we have had automated RC drone racing through a closed course inside buildings......  The automated racing got boring so they had to modify the rules massively reintroducing the human pilot.

Edited by footeab@yahoo.com
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones from its territory in the attack on a key Saudi oil facility Saturday, a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-fired-cruise-missiles-attack-saudi-oil-facility/story?id=65632653

Who knows, looks that it may be a mixture of both swarmed by drones and potential cruise missiles...

I don't believe $15K drones could hit with that kind of precision, but you would expect more damage from a cruise missile (depending on what an Iranian cruise missile is), remembering when SH was firing adapted SKUDS to Israel they had to remove the effectiveness of the war head to add fuel, in fact they were launching VW Beetles into Israel by the time they got there...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

As if that is going to work.  Even in WWII V1's went to their position, and dove straight down.  Walls are useless against drones.  The ceiling son, the ceiling....

No....V1’s were launched on an azimuth and their odometer determined where they went down. They were not guided, they were aimed by means of a guro controlled autopilot.

They did not perform a cotrolled dive, they simply crashed.

A little homework on your part would go a long way.

  • Rolling Eye 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Uh, you can buy the guidance systems and modify them off any drone with a GPS fix of less than a meter.  If that is too complex for you, you can buy off the shelf programmable RC airplane guidance with TV video as well! Why I stated testing to get the timing turn over fixed angle of descent.  Only requires a single test to get the distance on bearing at which to turn over for a zero zero. 

This is not 1990 anymore........ 

PS: You do realize that for over a decade we have had automated RC drone racing through a closed course inside buildings......  The automated racing got boring so they had to modify the rules massively reintroducing the human pilot.

for us dinosaurs,

https://bestdroneforthejob.com/drones-for-fun/racing-drone-buyers-guide-2/

  • Great Response! 1
  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones from its territory in the attack on a key Saudi oil facility Saturday, a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/iran-fired-cruise-missiles-attack-saudi-oil-facility/story?id=65632653

Who knows, looks that it may be a mixture of both swarmed by drones and potential cruise missiles...

I don't believe $15K drones could hit with that kind of precision, but you would expect more damage from a cruise missile (depending on what an Iranian cruise missile is), remembering when SH was firing adapted SKUDS to Israel they had to remove the effectiveness of the war head to add fuel, in fact they were launching VW Beetles into Israel by the time they got there...

Yeah, I saw this earlier too.  So far, it is still speculation, no proof.

6e9af1eb8c61bba0.png.8fb9216a084df923b00a87f65e6e22be.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Uh, you can buy the guidance systems and modify them off any drone with a GPS fix of less than a meter.  If that is too complex for you, you can buy off the shelf programmable RC airplane guidance with TV video as well! Why I stated testing to get the timing turn over fixed angle of descent.  Only requires a single test to get the distance on bearing at which to turn over for a zero zero. 

This is not 1990 anymore........ 

PS: You do realize that for over a decade we have had automated RC drone racing through a closed course inside buildings......  The automated racing got boring so they had to modify the rules massively reintroducing the human pilot.

Racing a small drone around the inside of a building (which would have no environmental concerns) is nowhere near as complicated launching a large drone, with a reasonable payload, hundreds of miles constantly adjusting to environmental conditions, and hitting a pinpoint target....and doing the exact same thing with multiple drones!

You may be a hell of a programmer and sport drone racer, but the complexities of engineering seem to escape you.

  • Upvote 3
  • Rolling Eye 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Jan,

How high of a wall are you talking about?

Well, this is a problem.  You would have to build quite sturdy posts,  and in sandy terrain that is already going to be a challenge.  The wind loads would be the determining factor if it even was feasible to build such a wall. The plates themselves would likely need holes cut in them, both to lighten the static load and to allow the wind to pass through.   A "cargo netting" type of installation would be much more logical, both to lighten the structure and to avoid problems with wind loading. 

Either way, remember that these drones are not set up to come in high and dive down onto the target.  They are essentially flat-flying missiles.  You would forget about the first 50 feet off the surface, then have to go up to flight height of 150 feet,thus  probably 250 feet.  So you have 200 feet of steel netting, probably spaced on three-foot centers, to go fabricate.  You don't need to have a close spacing because the wings of any missile even a small one with high wing-loading characteristics fired from close range will have to be more than three feet. You might be able to go to ten-foot cable spacing.  The idea is to snag the wings (or shear the wings off) and thus ground the drone or missile.  That does mean it has to be set up a bit away from the installation so that the missile will hit ground of its own accord. 

It would not have to be continuous;  you could build such nets in sections of steel rope.  The immediate supplier is whoever is building anti-shark nettings for the beaches of Australia.  That supplier already has the technology and fabrication processes all figured out, he would be able to move fast to get identical netting built and shipped.  Would not take long if the Saudis got their act together. 

While the netting supplier built the nets, the Saudis would be putting the towers up.  On a crash basis you could do it in 60 days, I should think.  Note that it is not necessary to built the netting in a continuous length.  The shark beach nets are not built that way, they are a series of discontinuous  net with open ocean around them, yet nonetheless keep the sharks off the beaches.  You would think the sharks would simply swim around the nets and go in the open passages between them, but they don't.  The Aussies have that one all figured out. 

A drawback to the solid plate wall is that it is conceivable that some sort of terrain-avoidance system could be built into the guidance system of the drone, and it would hop up and fly over.  I would doubt that a net of widely-spaced wire rope would be able to be picked up by such radar.  Either way, KAS is now on the forefront of the receipt of asymmetrical warfare.  Ouch. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
  • Rolling Eye 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps something suspended by tethered balloons...🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, James Regan said:

She would need to be very drunk to date anyone on this forum Jan and CEO included, so it would actually be 4.06 barrels of the amber nectar...

James, she is a married woman (with child) with a totally handsome husband, and is age 32!  Old fossils can forget about it.......

Besides, I have done my reproduction demands and am now utterly biologically expendable.  Kinda like those salmon that swim upstream, and then.......   Oh, well. Nice while it lasted. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Perhaps something suspended by tethered balloons...🤔

Douglas, that is a very interesting possibility.  An old WWII technique to keep strafing aircraft off landing ships....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

The Houthis have in their possession a range of drones. Here is an example :

Houthi drone.PNG

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The question is, who supplied/serviced/operated them?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

32 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The question is, who supplied/serviced/operated them?

The logical ultimate builder sources are Pakistan and North Korea.  Personally, I would put my chips on North Korea.

Whether they are direct sales or through some arms broker is yet another factor.  There are arms dealers with dubious reputations all over that part of the world. 

Old-style 2013 NK drone on parade:

image.png.7b621b9b06dee6e17f1a74267f07c00e.png

Edited by Jan van Eck
added picture

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay, makes sense, but the Houthis can’t afford this hardware or operated it likely. The question now becomes who paid for the hardware and who operated it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 9/14/2019 at 9:10 PM, John Foote said:

They probably shot their load and need time to lay low and regroup and plan. The over-investment in technology and people to prevent the next attack alone will drag the Saudis down a bit. This was probably beyond MbS's conception of feasible. When the Americans laid out Aramco it was for efficiency, things putting so much risk into key choke points were not a factor. Abqaiq is the mother of all GOSPs. Impressive to see, and I doubt there will ever be something done on it's scale again. There is probably enough redundancy to take out a quarter of it and still produce normally. If I was planning the next attack I'd pick a different choke point, there are no shortage of targets. A simple pumping station or two would more than likely be poorly defended and easier to hit. Abqaiq had the advantage of a large town next to it for insurgents to work out of. In the Al Queda attack of 2006 the Saudi guard force ran away, the odd Phillapino being heroic in fighting. Had that Al Qeada group been better trained and knew what to take out it would have been a disaster.

FYI, owning a drone is illegal there. I saw them, knew folks that owned them, but for obvious reasons were illegal. The attempt on MBS a year or so ago being an example as to why they are not allowed. He must sleep about as well as Stalin did. And if he treats his officer core half as badly, he's going to have a hell of a time building up a capable counter-resistance force. I bet heads roll over this. Literally, and figuratively.

I can't imagine the suspended state of belief in the Aramco command center as this was happening. Sometimes Inshall'ah is a bitch.

And Trump basically says -how dare they shoot back.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Racing a small drone around the inside of a building (which would have no environmental concerns) is nowhere near as complicated launching a large drone, with a reasonable payload, hundreds of miles constantly adjusting to environmental conditions, and hitting a pinpoint target....and doing the exact same thing with multiple drones!

You may be a hell of a programmer and sport drone racer, but the complexities of engineering seem to escape you.

Looking again at those photos, I'm not convinced that's where they all hit, just where the geek drew boxes. We've had precision munitions since the early 90's that could fly through windows hundreds of miles away, not sure Iran could develop those, but they could certainly steal the designs easily enough. 

If those drones were human assisted, I'd suspect collaborators nearby who "short stopped" the drones to guide them into home plate. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Hotone said:

 

The Houthis have in their possession a range of drones. Here is an example :

Houthi drone.PNG

Wait, aren't the Houthis fighting Against the Yemini army? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The logical ultimate builder sources are Pakistan and North Korea.  Personally, I would put my chips on North Korea.

Whether they are direct sales or through some arms broker is yet another factor.  There are arms dealers with dubious reputations all over that part of the world. 

Old-style 2013 NK drone on parade:

image.png.7b621b9b06dee6e17f1a74267f07c00e.png

It appears the US is one of them. If they did not have a supplier it would not be very reasonable to be arming Saudi up to the hilt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Wait, aren't the Houthis fighting Against the Yemini army? 

There are now at least three different factions fighting each other, the Yemeni government, and the Saudis.  It gets hard to tell them apart.  Indeed, the internal loyalties are a bit like the shifting sands of the Sahara. 

At this point the conclusion of the Saudis, and apparently of the US, is that the drones came from Iran, and flew in via Iraq and Kuwait.  That is a bit bizarre.  In any event, looking at the puncture holes in those LNG tanks, they would appear to be made by small contact missiles, not drones, although the missiles could have been launched from drones.  The holes in the tanks are too small in diameter to be from drone strikes.  A missile would make a nice neat hole as these in the photos. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

I am of the belief that I believe nothing at this point. The Saudis are desperate for a rise in prices, and the US is itching for a war with Iran. The Saudis will take whatever steps required to support a price increase and the US will point the finger at Iran regardless. I also believe harold hamm is a happy camper as well. I myself, am serevely tiring on the middle east topic. My entire life has been about war and oil with these haji bastards. To the dismay of Hamm, I say we shut in exports and let these  [ insult deleted by moderator ]  fight,  let the rest of the world deal with securing their oil shipments. 

Edited by Tom Kirkman
Moderator edit, insults not allowed
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 9/17/2019 at 2:31 AM, J.mo said:

I am of the belief that I believe nothing at this point. The Saudis are desperate for a rise in prices, and the US is itching for a war with Iran. The Saudis will take whatever steps required to support a price increase and the US will point the finger at Iran regardless. I also believe harold hamm is a happy camper as well. I myself, am serevely tiring on the middle east topic. My entire life has been about war and oil with these haji bastards. To the dismay of Hamm, I say we shut in exports and let these   [ insult deleted by moderator  fight,  let the rest of the world deal with securing their oil shipments. 

Conspiracy theory at its worst!

Should Oil Price oil such derogatory and pathetic comments?

Edited by Tom Kirkman
Moderator edit, insults not allowed, insult removed from original comment
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.