Douglas Buckland

The Belt & Road Initiative: A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing?

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(edited)

5 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

"Hillary Clinton is a representation of those elites" (from video).

Fair enough.  But so is Donald Trump.  And the people Bannon are talking to are all dressed in suits, too.  So this elite bashing is a little bit odd.  

Im not really interested in who was present, the message was meant for publishing online, and laid out a perfectly reasonable argument to provoke a debate, a meaningful debate.

You dont know who was in a suit maybe it was a builder, dress code, you categorising people on their looks or what they are wearing, you can do better that that.

Edited by James Regan
big fingers

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(edited)

Actually, we should categorize people based on how they look.  That's what everyone does, despite what they may say otherwise.  I've read enough neuroscience to know this and I've seen enough behavior to confirm it.  

What we should recognize is that these categorizations may be wrong, and that we shouldn't act on these categorizations, because it may trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes these categorizations to become true.  I've thought a bit about stereotyping before. 

Here is what I don't understand: most elite bashing is done by the elites.  And yet for whatever reason (cognitive dissonance perhaps) most of these people don't recognize that when they bash elites, they're bashing themselves.  Bannon may or may not be right in his speech, but it's this willful self-blindness that I don't like.  

Edited by Zhong Lu
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So you say we should do it, but admit you shouldn't act on it as you may be wrong, so doing it by definition is a bit pointless... ?

And this is about judging the audience anyway? 

Not about speaker or topic?

I'm lost    ;) 

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(edited)

If a police officer pulls over a black man and treats that man as a criminal because he is black, he is more likely to lash out at the police officer (and get arrested as a criminal).  If, however, the police officer acts with courtesy, and treats the black man as if he was a white or Asian man, then nothing bad happens.  I.e. self-fulfilling prophecy.

Similarly: talk about how China is a big threat can trigger the US to take action that China sees as a threat, which can trigger Chinese behavior that makes them even more of a threat.  For example, the trade war might encourage China to build even more islands in SE Asia and expand further into Africa and Central Asia.  And so again you have a self-fulfilling prophecy.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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Mate I know what a self fulfilling prophecy is  :) 

Just little confused about this comment, when YOU are the one judging people because they are in a suit... 

15 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

these categorizations may be wrong, and that we shouldn't act on these categorizations,

All good buddy. (Or do you want to be pissed off so you trade better  ;) ). 

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(edited)

If you're listening to Steve Bannon in a fancy hotel room in Japan, or if you're posting on this forum, you're an elite.  Poor people don't post on oilprice.  Nor do poor people have the money or the time to listen to Bannon.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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16 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Actually, we should categorize people based on how they look.  That's what everyone does, despite what they may say otherwise.  I've read enough neuroscience to know this and I've seen enough behavior to confirm it.  

What we should recognize is that these categorizations may be wrong, and that we shouldn't act on these categorizations, because it may trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy that causes these categorizations to become true.  I've thought a bit about stereotyping before. 

Here is what I don't understand: most elite bashing is done by the elites.  And yet for whatever reason (cognitive dissonance perhaps) most of these people don't recognize that when they bash elites, they're bashing themselves.  Bannon may or may not be right in his speech, but it's this self-blindness that I don't like.  

We use a system called colours in the drilling Industry, which is is then placed on your hardhat or office desk, this system lets others know how to interact with you, we are all different and cannot be judged on our appearance especially as we are all wearing the same clothes, ie orange coveralls.

This link is something similar as the color system used offshore is proprietary info, this test if answered correctly may let you know something about yourself.

https://my-personality-test.com/results/4997284856237679901/true-colours

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Ok, I disagree with all 3 of those sentences. We agree to disagree. Happy trading.

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You too.  

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1 minute ago, James Regan said:

We use a system called colours in the drilling Industry, which is is then placed on your hardhat or office desk, this system lets others know how to interact with you, we are all different and cannot be judged on our appearance especially as we are all wearing the same clothes, ie orange coveralls.

This link is something similar as the color system used offshore is proprietary info, this test if answered correctly may let you know something about yourself.

https://my-personality-test.com/results/4997284856237679901/true-colours

I clicked the link but it's trying to get me to install something, which is why I refused.  

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3 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

If you're listening to Steve Bannon in a fancy hotel room in Japan, or if you're posting on this forum, you're an elite.  Poor people don't post on oilprice.  Nor do poor people have the money or the time to listen to Bannon.  

You Quoted - 

Actually, we should categorize people based on how they look.  That's what everyone does, despite what they may say otherwise.  I've read enough neuroscience to know this and I've seen enough behavior to confirm it.

So you just put people in boxes and move on, have you published your observations?

Give me some examples to support your argument please, as to come to this conclusion you must have experienced both sides of the coin and have solid data to make this statement.

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(edited)

Online, I judge people based on their grammar [I mean, how else are you going to do it?].  If they write with capital letters in the correct locations, use commas and periods appropriately, and have a large vocabulary pool, then that means they went to a good public school and had parents or teachers that read books to them.  

I've worked with poor people before, and I can guarantee that very few of the comments in the youtube comments section under Bannon's speech could have been written by a person born into a poor community or family in the US.  They simply wouldn't have the education to write like that.

EDIT: 

https://www.cengage.com/bcomm/guffey/newsletter/archives/2009-11/9113.html

American businesses need skilled workers. But results of a report by the Conference Board, Corporate Voices for Working Families, the Partnership for 21st Century Skills, and the Society for Human Resource Management found that when it comes to skills business leaders consider important—especially written and oral communication—our students are not making the grade.

Are They Really Ready for Work? surveyed more than 400 employers and concluded that U.S. students are too often deficient upon entering the workforce. For example, business leaders consider written communication "very important," but over one-fourth of four-year college graduates and nearly half of two-year college students were found to have deficient writing skills.

The report cited specific writing problems employers complain about: incorrect word usage, poor grammar, and spelling errors that occur throughout reports, presentations, and e-mails. The survey's authors hypothesize that graduates' poor preparedness may be a result of two factors—the low priority of writing instruction in schools and students' use of casual writing that carries over to the workplace. The lack of skills in both basic writing and effective business communication is a "major stumbling block" to college graduate job seekers, the report said.

Edited by Zhong Lu

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3 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Online, I judge people based on their grammar.  If they write with capital letters in the correct locations, use commas and periods appropriately, and have a large vocabulary pool, then that means they went to a good public school and had parents or teachers that read books to them.  

I've worked with poor people before, and I can guarantee that very few of the comments in the youtube comments section under Bannon's speech could have been written by a person born into a poor community or family in the US.  They simply wouldn't have the education to write like that.

So now you have narrowed it down to online, very convenient.

In reality we are incapable of stereotyping as our version is tainted by our upbringing and social conditioning and/or our mood at the time of deciding to categorise someone.

Ive been surprised many times both good and bad, so I tend not to prejudge anymore.

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(edited)

With regards to Bannon's speech, he himself has no moral authority to judge others.  On a strategic level (China is a threat) his analysis may have merit, but on a moral level it's little more than empty posturing.  The people he's making the speech to in that Japanese hotel room wouldn't behave any better if they had power.   

Edited by Zhong Lu

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8 hours ago, James Regan said:

@Douglas Buckland asked - My question to you, the reader, is, 'How to you percieve the Belt & Road Initiative?' Is it a serious effort by the Chinese to open the world to globalization or is it simply an effort to enhance the Chinese economy and global position at the expense of other, less affluent, countries?

Time to bring out the weapon again. if you haven't watched this watch it, skip the first 12.3 Mins unless your Japanese or speak it.

Mr Bannon lays it out for you....

https://youtu.be/P2wdwZxk17o

Most of you won't watch it those that do will be impressed, even if you don't agree with him.

To me personally this answers Dougs question...

I watched Mr Bannon and he is right,

in 15-20 years we will all be the tributary states of China:

United States, Japan, South Korea etc. and also my country Poland.

(I would not mention all the simplifications/wrongs of Bannon's speech, cause he got right the main idea)

This was diagnosis but where is the cure ? I ask pragmatic question:

How you can slow/stop Belt and Road when US has no tangible answer ?

Most of the developing countries and many industrialized countries already joined

because they think about infrastructure they really need &/or money and not the big idea of world hegemony.

@Douglas Buckland I think it is on topic to ask the question about solution. Is it ?

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(edited)

Trump wants to pull the US back into a shell, while talking shi- to America's allies.  In the meantime the current Chinese government is growing their coalition through economic inducements and diplomacy (a skill that Trump lacks).  Is this to enhance their global position or to help others? Both.  From the perspective of the countries getting this offer, it's not as if the US is offering anything.  And I doubt the West or Japan has any moral authority to complain about China's so-called "exploitation" of Africa, SE Asia, or South America.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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Okay, I retract my original post as it has simply turned into a US bashing exercise with no real insight to be gained, much to my chagrin.

It is bullshit such as this that puts people off from posting a new thread about any issue whatsoever.

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(edited)

19 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Trump wants to pull the US back into a shell, while talking shi- to America's allies.  In the meantime the current Chinese government is growing their coalition through economic inducements and diplomacy (a skill that Trump lacks).  Is this to enhance their global position or to help others? Both.  From the perspective of the countries getting this offer, it's not as if the US is offering anything.  And it's not as if the West or Japan has any moral authority to complain about China's so-called "exploitation" of Africa, SE Asia, or South America.  

I agree with you one hundred percent, Trump is the first one to act on the threat that China is planning world wide economic domination. IMO it will be very hard to stop, the horse has bolted. I don't think Trump is worried at all about how he is perceived politically speaking (ego for sure he has a big ego). Lets not be so naive that China and the BRI is for charity or good will, taking into consideration their abuses of human rights in their own country.

Trump believes the USA has done enough policing and is always the biggest/first donor in providing human aid. As far as previous conflicts go, the idea is that we learn from them, unfortunately we dont. Its in our DNAs to control, its not a new concept.

Just on the 5G why would the USA want its technology controlled by China- 5G rollout will be scary and will change the world IMO.

Edited by James Regan
just woke up

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(edited)

Belt and Road smells like something far more simple - it may be a Chinese scheme, carried out on an astonishing global scale, to launder Chinese state money overseas. It may be indicative of the possibility that the Chinese market is flooded with construction projects, and to keep the ball rolling, they have decided to make a China out of the whole world. Chinese projects funded by Chinese banks giving Chinese loans at Chinese interest rates using Chinese companies and Chinese labour in foreign markets - means no need to report to anyone. How to profit? Invest in things the Chinese like to buy overseas which they will actually pay for. What the Belt and Road is not, is an imperialist scheme. The Chinese are the last people on earth to be bothered with global domination - it is too much work. They see foreign markets for what they are - more ground to put concrete on. The only difference between the Chinese economy and the mortgage bubble that led to the crash in 2008 is that the former is state-owned. Just look at the BRI projects. Where do the roads actually go? What new sea route is being treaded by the Belt? Are the train lines actually profitable? If these projects were mortgage owners, their FICO scores would be in 200s. 

The cries in most foreign press about Chinese imperialism and all that is perfect cover for what the Chinese state actually wants to do - which is get money out of China before it's too late. What do the Chinese want when overseas? Western education, condos, fashion, cosmetic surgery, handbags, art, pleasure etc.

Edited by Krishnan Unni Madathil
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3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, I retract my original post as it has simply turned into a US bashing exercise with no real insight to be gained, much to my chagrin.

It is bullshit such as this that puts people off from posting a new thread about any issue whatsoever.

Here, have an apple Douglas.  Everyone seems to be dancing right around the apple.

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(edited)

On 9/14/2019 at 5:05 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is roughly defined (per Wikipedia) as "... a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government involving infrastructure development and investments in 152 countries and international organizations in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas". 

Some feel that it is nothing more than a method for the Chinese government to enslave other nations through the strategy of economic imperialism. In a nutshell, Chinese companies, backed by the Chinese government, agree to undertake infrastructure projects in foreign countries, who happen to have something that China desires. These countries have no realistic way to pay for these projects and China then 'colonizes' that country to supposedly service the debt to them.

Years ago, the Chinese offered to 'invest' in Angola, but would take payment in the form of oil. The interesting thing is that the hotels, bridges, roads and railways were built with Chinese imported labor. Obviously this did not do much for the local economy and did not endear the Chinese to the common Angolan. Furthermore, a third party inspection revealed that the quality of these construction projects, carried out by Chinese firms and Chinese workers, was of such inferior quality that the 'life expectancy' of these projects was put at 5 years.

A similar situation arose in the Sudan when Western oil companies left Sudan due to human rights issues and the Chinese oil companies moved in. More recently, after recent elections in Malaysia, the new government cancelled several BRI projects, but later reneged once the cost of the projects was reduced.

There is also the issue of outright bribery. See the links below.

My question to you, the reader, is, 'How to you percieve the Belt & Road Initiative?' Is it a serious effort by the Chinese to open the world to globalization or is it simply an effort to enhance the Chinese economy and global position at the expense of other, less affluent, countries?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lwF5YL22m4

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/05/business/cefc-china-patrick-ho.html

You should listen to the African perspective from someone with real and extensive experience.  Paulsen Institute, Chicago:

https://youtu.be/P5uzxV8ub9k

Edited by Hotone
Omission

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23 minutes ago, Hotone said:

You should listen to the African perspective from someone with real and extensive experience.  Paulsen Institute, Chicago:

https://youtu.be/P5uzxV8ub9k

I was there...

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2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I was there...

Where were you?

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7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, I retract my original post as it has simply turned into a US bashing exercise with no real insight to be gained, much to my chagrin.

It is bullshit such as this that puts people off from posting a new thread about any issue whatsoever.

Congratulations!   You have developed a deep insight into how an interesting thread gets totally run off the rails  (by people with an agenda). 

And yes, you are quite right, most of what has been posted here is pure bullshit.  Oh, well. 

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20 minutes ago, Hotone said:

Where were you?

...there.

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