USA Wants Iran War -- Shooty Shooty More

[Guest]

Dang Marcin, I'm more than happy with $80 - 85       (but I'll take it - who am I kidding).

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 minutes ago, Marcin said:

There would never be 'Boots on the ground' or even aerial bombardments sort of war, any war with Iran is out of the question,

because Iran is a mountainous country, not flat as a table Iraq lowlands,

and because Iran has its indigenous, sophisticated military technology including missile technology

And last but not least in case of war you would see covert Russian help.

So very, very improbable scenario would look like this:

Day 1 US aerial bombardment

Day 2 You see part of UAE & of Saudi Arabian oil export facilities damaged (as a warning only sth like 20%)

Day 3 End of the war

Right, there has never been a ‘boots on the ground’ war or aerial bombardment in any mountainous country in modern history! 

Your second paragraph is so ludicrous that it condemns the rest of your post to comic relief!

[Marcin + 519]

And yes Pentagon made analysis about Iran invasion, sth like 400 000+ ground army, 10000+ American casualties,

to have some distant probability of success.

And that is why Trump is against it, once you start war with Iran it would escalate to ground war quickly,

becuase Iranians have not much to loose, remember burden of US sanctions.

And Iwo Jima type event is not best publicity for 2020 election.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Day 2 would not be possible after Day 1. Your logic is flawed.

[Guest]

Haha didn't even read half of this.

I saw ''Oil $100 - 150'' and was distracted 

[Marcin + 519]

5 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Right, there has never been a ‘boots on the ground’ war or aerial bombardment in any mountainous country in modern history! 

Your second paragraph is so ludicrous that it condemns the rest of your post to comic relief!

Of course US will eventually win ground war in Iran,Go To Topic Listing

please only find half million Americans willing to die on some distant desert,

if you would volunteer we need only 499 999 more!

Iranian military is much more sophisticated than Iraqi in 2003 was, add terrain adavantage,

add Russian advantage and it becomes real, bloody war not Iraqi adventure.

[Guest]

Do you honestly, in your wildest dreams, think the USA would have a ''distant probability of success'' against IRAN?

 

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

7 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Of course US will eventually win ground war in Iran,Go To Topic Listing

please only find half million Americans willing to die on some distant desert,

if you would volunteer we need only 499 999 more!

Iranian military is much more sophisticated than Iraqi in 2003 was, add terrain adavantage,

add Russian advantage and it becomes real, bloody war not Iraqi adventure.

Then why did the Iran-Iraq war drag out for 8 years and end in a stalemate?

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

18 minutes ago, Marcin said:

And yes Pentagon made analysis about Iran invasion, sth like 400 000+ ground army, 10000+ American casualties,

to have some distant probability of success.

And that is why Trump is against it, once you start war with Iran it would escalate to ground war quickly,

becuase Iranians have not much to loose, remember burden of US sanctions.

And Iwo Jima type event is not best publicity for 2020 election.

Don’t need boots on the ground to destroy Iranian infrastructure and command & control centers.

You seem to miss this point.

[James Regan + 1,776]

Will Iran release the Stena Tanker at this stage, may be a  good indicator?

[James Regan + 1,776]

27 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Don’t need boots on the ground to destroy Iranian infrastructure and command & control centers.

You seem to miss this point.

"Boots on the ground" - No need at all that was so last decade. Why would they need to put boots on the ground, only at then the end to put the Mullah's heads on poles, but the population would probably do that themselves, and a good flip-flopping in the face. If anyone starts launching missiles this is going to be a bad situation for all in the region.

Israel will cease to exist...Any high end armoury is heading their way if it goes all out.

Too much as stake here, I dont believe it will escalate to military action, far too many variables.

Desert Storm would be considered childs play, if this situation goes military.

Edited September 17, 2019 by James Regan

[Marcin + 519]

21 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Then why did the Iran-Iraq war drag out for 8 years and end in a stalemate?

Douglas, It is fantastic that you mentioned Iran-Iraq war.

Iraq attacked Iran in 1980, there was a lot of chaos in Iran after revolution and Iraq had some early successes.

But later Iran have retaken all the territory initially  lost nad was on offensive, but was too weakened by prolonged war

so it ended in stalemate and peace treaty in 1988.

The most important fact is that Iraq during the whole war had logistic and political support of all major powers:

United States, Soviet Union, France, United Kingdom.

Both United States & Soviet Union wanted Iraq to win and Iran to loose.

Even under these circumstances Iran was not defeated.

I do not know any other post-1945 war where 1 country would be so isolated and prevail.

 

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

3 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I do not know any other post-1945 war where 1 country would be so isolated and prevail.

Germany didn't do so bad, and they got wiped out, now an economic power house.

Friends with everyone. (almost forget the UK and BREXIT)

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Friends with everyone. (almost forget the UK and BREXIT)

Haha. Yeah baby. Oh he stipulated post 1945. Convenient.

Er, The Falklands..?!     We are an island so isolated by definition. 

 

Oh, and it was still a stalemate. Thinking the USA would struggle v Iran is crazy talk. 

Edited September 17, 2019 by Guest

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Haha. Yeah baby. Oh he stipulated post 1945. Convenient.

Er, The Falklands..?!     We are an island so isolated by definition. 

 

Oh, and it was still a stalemate. Thinking the USA would struggle v Iran is crazy talk. 

We're talking about killing people and destroying countries, let's not get into symantics Post/Pre its a BS statement to force the debate.

Ah Yes the Falklands- Was an honour to be British, keep your hands off our sheep and phone box, it will only end in tears.

[Guest]

WE INTERRUPT THIS THREAD FOR AN IMPORTANT TRUTHBOMB

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 minute ago, DayTrader said:

WE INTERRUPT THIS THREAD FOR AN IMPORTANT TRUTHBOMB

 

LOL you looking to rile up the Oil Price staff?

(I'm a volunteer moderator, and am not Oil Price staff)

The seemingly endless U.S. vs China squabble has weirdly morphed into a U.S. vs Iran squabble.

Brexit remains unresolved though, so there is that for some endless continuity.  

[Guest]

Haha no nothing about the staff, they're great   , just the hilarious anti US brigade

Yes, next we will do why the UK is so bad.

It's morphed from Trade War to Real War.

The only reason we have even discussed oil is because of huge attacks in Saudi Arabia and the biggest price jumps in history. Think about that. That's what it took. 

 

To clarify to any new members or people visiting the forum, this ''anti USA'' stuff has nothing to do with the staff here

It's a bit of an inside joke!      

Edited September 17, 2019 by Guest

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Putin is amused. 

Putin Trolls Saudis, Offers To Sell Them Same Missiles He Already Sold To Iran

[James Regan + 1,776]

5 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Putin is amused. 

Putin Trolls Saudis, Offers To Sell Them Same Missiles He Already Sold To Iran

He's definitely taking the piss with that one....

[Marcin + 519]

I find peculiar things happening here at oilprice forum. I joined just 2 weeks ago.

When I write something that is (accidentally) in line with what I could call

(very) simplified world view of average American/British citizen

everything is ok.

But when I become nuanced, because the world is not a simple

we vs them, black vs white, Batman vs Robin or Avengers vs I do not know whom

The discussion becomes increasingly frustrating for me,

I see it a repeating pattern: my arguments vs you are American hater or Chinese/Iranian/Russian supporter (pseudo) contra arguments.

For example:

I would really enjoy fruitful conversation where somebody could show,

contrary to what many historians, analysts, military strategists has written on the subject,

that Iran is an easy target for war & invasion.

Writing here that Iranian mountains are impenetrable to any army without

heavy losses does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American

And you simply cannot destroy mountain hidings for ballistic missiles through conventional bombardments,

and writing about it again does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American.

 

[James Regan + 1,776]

43 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Haha no nothing about the staff, they're great   , just the hilarious anti US brigade

Yes, next we will do why the UK is so bad.

It's morphed from Trade War to Real War.

The only reason we have even discussed oil is because of huge attacks in Saudi Arabia and the biggest price jumps in history. Think about that. That's what it took. 

 

To clarify to any new members or people visiting the forum, this ''anti USA'' stuff has nothing to do with the staff here

It's a bit of an inside joke!      

I disagree - "'All is fair in love and war'

[James Regan + 1,776]

6 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I find peculiar things happening here at oilprice forum. I joined just 2 weeks ago.

When I write something that is (accidentally) in line with what I could call

(very) simplified world view of average American/British citizen

everything is ok.

But when I become nuanced, because the world is not a simple

we vs them, black vs white, Batman vs Robin or Avengers vs I do not know whom

The discussion becomes increasingly frustrating for me,

I see it a repeating pattern: my arguments vs you are American hater or Chinese/Iranian/Russian supporter (pseudo) contra arguments.

For example:

I would really enjoy fruitful conversation where somebody could show,

contrary to what many historians, analysts, military strategists has written on the subject,

that Iran is an easy target for war & invasion.

Writing here that Iranian mountains are impenetrable to any army without

heavy losses does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American

And you simply cannot destroy mountain hidings for ballistic missiles through conventional bombardments,

and writing about it again does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American.

 

A good place to start would be by asking the question. Whom do you consider to be the protagonists of the Iran US infighting, and why?

Edited September 17, 2019 by James Regan

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

4 minutes ago, Marcin said:

(very) simplified world view of average American/British citizen

Bear in mind, a lot of people in the oil & gas industry have travelled extensively around the world.  

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

9 minutes ago, Marcin said:

I find peculiar things happening here at oilprice forum. I joined just 2 weeks ago.

When I write something that is (accidentally) in line with what I could call

(very) simplified world view of average American/British citizen

everything is ok.

But when I become nuanced, because the world is not a simple

we vs them, black vs white, Batman vs Robin or Avengers vs I do not know whom

The discussion becomes increasingly frustrating for me,

I see it a repeating pattern: my arguments vs you are American hater or Chinese/Iranian/Russian supporter (pseudo) contra arguments.

For example:

I would really enjoy fruitful conversation where somebody could show,

contrary to what many historians, analysts, military strategists has written on the subject,

that Iran is an easy target for war & invasion.

Writing here that Iranian mountains are impenetrable to any army without

heavy losses does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American

And you simply cannot destroy mountain hidings for ballistic missiles through conventional bombardments,

and writing about it again does not make one pro-Iranian or anti-American.

 

Then I suggest that you clearly state what you are trying to say. The ones reading your comments cannot read your mind.