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USA Wants Iran War -- Shooty Shooty More

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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

WE INTERRUPT THIS THREAD FOR AN IMPORTANT TRUTHBOMB

 

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They don’t call us the Great Satan for nothing! We earned the title dammit’😈

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(edited)

Screen Shot 2019-09-17 at 08.49.57.png

Bummer for Obama..... Lifes a bitch

Edited by James Regan
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Its surprising for me that despite of all the great US intellingence available in space and on the ground in Middle East (see below) President Trump has not yet told the public who is in charge of the attack.

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Maybe there are good reasons for it. In situations like this it is very difficult to find out the truth. However it is interesting to analyze who benefits and who suffers from this attack:

Winners:

  • All oil producing and exporting countries / companies in the world due to higher oil price and reduction of oil glut.
  • Numerous companies of the US fracking industry to be safed through higher prices at the brink of bankruptcy. For many US shale companies 55 USD/barrel WTI not suffiecient for beak even. Many of them did not have positive cash flows even when oil prices were high in Q2/Q3 2018.
  • Numerous Wall street investors (Private equity, hedge funds, etc.) who invested in US shale oil bonds can hope to safe their high yield bonds and stocks.
  • US will be safed from a decline of its unconventional oil production and will be able to maintain its leading position as global oil producer.
  • President Trump to be safed from a deterioration US shale industry while getting closer to the election in Nov. 2020. Due to its fracking industry US trade balance has improved by ca. 350 billion USD/a since 2005. (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2019/0820).
  • Saudi Arabia gets better conditions for the Aramco IPO. Prices are up, Oil is supplied from storage, Storages will be refilled later. Global market is sensitized with regard to supply risk - oil price is lifted up. No loss of market share. Total balance on annual basis for SA could be very positive.
  • Hawks in US, Israel, SA and middle east, focussed on reducing regional influence and aggression of Iran and maximizing pressure on it, get support.
  • Iran appears is safed from military attacks on its oil industry since any destruction would reduce the already restrained (Venezuela, Iran, SA) global production of sour crude oil further.
  • Houthi in rebels in Yemen put more pressure on their enemy SA.

Loosers:

  • All net crude oil importers which have to pay higher oil prices, China, Asia, Europe, etc.

Conclusion:

Looks like a win - win situation for all oil exporting countries including US.

China is hurt most. It stood for 20.2% of the global crude oil imports in 2018, worth US$239.2 billion. Guess this is not against the interests of President Trump and the US.

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2 hours ago, James Regan said:

A good place to start would be by asking the question. Whom do you consider to be the protagonists of the Iran US infighting, and why?

1. US military industrial complex is the main party to gain directly , but would they do it for mere additional 200 billion dollars a year in military spending? I doubt it, they already have 750 billon. Plus of course Saudi Arabia,UAE and other ISIS&9/11 "moderate" wahabi backers. For wahabi 'moderate' means they behead women for adultery with sharp not blunt sword. I still do not believe we are allies with this troglodytes. Iranians are also fanatics but Saudis are league of their own.

US society is to loose badly because even less money in this Spartan country for education&infrastructure

2. China will gain long-term as it will be on the sidelines (Russia will do covert dirty work of helping Iran),

and it will be the 3rd moment of distraction for US instead on concentrating on China containment 

(1st was Middle East wars after 9/11, 2nd was financial crisis since 2008 on top of Middle East wars).

Xi Jinping will thank you US comrades!

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Oil already back down 6%, sorry MBS. No shooty shooty. I doubt trump will risk re election over $63 oil.

Better luck next time. 

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And I am afraid no matter what we do Iran will have nuclear weapons in the future, it is their existential task,

because Israel already has & because US tries to destroy/control the country since 1950's and they are too proud/old civilization.

Trump was 100% right that nuclear deal without restricting Iranian balistic missile program did not have sense,

staying in it means supporting  Iranian nuclear program. I am sorry to say that but Obama, very charming, intelligent guy,

was totally unqualified to be US President.

In nuclear weapons there are 2 parts:

1. an easy part to build plutonium/uranium bomb (over 20 countries in the world could do it in 1 year),

2. the difficult part. To transport the bomb to enemy territory&detonate

Ballistic missiles are obvious choice (submarines and strategic bombers being the other 2).

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And the same rockets that carry nuclear bombs could be also used to launch satellites.

That is why US watches its vassal countries like South Korea and Japan to not develop launch technology too much,

I mean to cross Pacific.

Cause if you can launch only the easy part is left to do.

Please find below countries that have ballistic missile technology, some of them do not (?) have nuclear weapons yet.

(for Japan & South Korea it is a few months if they really needed A bomb)

image.png.724cf6627e62bf94f3a9cf9749fed898.png

 

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New Zealand does not matter as launched using US technology

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image.png.274bb09fdaf861e44096127f1f8d13b5.png

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(edited)

Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Energy Secretary Rick Perry all blamed Iran for the attack despite a statement from the Iran-affiliated Houthi rebels in Yemen who took responsibility for the attacks that cut an estimated 5.7 million bpd in production capacity from global supply.

The investigation into who launched the attacks is still in progress but, according to Trump, it looks like Iran was behind it, Reuters reports.

“We have a lot of options but I’m not looking at options right now. We want to find definitively who did this,” the U.S. president said.

The attacks hit a Saudi oil field and a processing facility in Saturday. A day later, Trump tweeted: “Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!”

 

So Saudi Arabia now dictates US Military policy does it? And who Saudi says did it will be a nice unbiased answer. I'm sure of it.

 

 

Edited by DayTrader
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I'm sure President Trump knows who did this, he's just not telling us. I think we'll all find out by what happens next. 

If these drones came from Iran, they're done: The Iranians surely realize that further action on their part will bring crippling reprisals from the KSA, not to mention the possibility that the United States might well join in. 

If on the other hand the drones were launched by Houthis, presumably aided and abetted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards--an elite advisory team to Hezbollah--then they'll likely try it again, aiming at some other vulnerable site. Why? Well, why not, they have nothing to lose.

Occam's Razor? Iran didn't do this, or retaliatory action would already have been taken. The Houthis did it. And they'll do it again . . . or something similar. If so, there will be an anamnestic reaction by global oil markets that will verge on panic--lots of shorts went on today, so covering those shorts will shoot Brent through the roof. There's far too much coy behavior; words are being parsed carefully--which doesn't jive with the fact that an unrated team just slipped into the House of Saud and scored big. Watch and wait. Time will tell us the truth.

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https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-usa/irans-rouhani-says-wider-talks-with-u-s-possible-if-2015-deal-implemented-idUKKBN1WB2JF

Iran can discuss other issues with the United States providing its 2015 nuclear deal with six powers is fully implemented, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday, adding that Tehran’s missile capabilities were not negotiable.

“First, the deal should be fully implemented ... meaning that sanctions should be lifted and America should return to the nuclear deal ... and then other issues can be discussed as well,” Rouhani said.

“We want America to remove its preconditions for talking to Iran, including its ‘maximum pressure’ policy against the Iranian nation” before any talks can be possible, he said at a news conference in New York during the United Nations’ annual gathering of world leaders.

The U.S.-Iranian confrontation has ratcheted up since last year, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with major powers and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy to force Tehran to renegotiate the pact. Iran refuses to hold any talks with the United States unless Washington lifts sanctions on Tehran.

 
 

 

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(edited)

If those missiles and drones were launched from Iran then I'm an Aunties unkle, there is no reason for the Iranians to launch an attack from their territory, they have a form of plausable deniability by the Houthis doing it even though it's quite clear the weaponry they have been using to humiliate the Saudis in Yemen originate from Iran and possibly other allies.

More importantly we need to step back from this geopolitical painting to full appreciate what is happening, this isn't isolated it been going on for years and involves the Syrian war which is obviously a proxy war that invovled just about every man and his dog. Once the Syrian/Russian/Iranians got the upper hand the Iranians started pouring weapons into Yemen as payback and leverage. The loosely defined coalitions on both sides all have very different end games which  is why neither conflict will come to an end soon...there are too many players involved, Israel is not going to be happy with Iranian malitias strolling around in Syria so they will continue to fund Sunni groups even if the Saudis have had enough, the Turks have their own interests also as do everyone else.

In many ways I see this as a redrawing of the borders of the Middle East which were casually drawn up decades ago, I very much doubt Trump will wage war against Iran especially not before his election next year or he could end up a one term president.

We in the West actually stand to make a lot out of these conflicts (rightly or wrongly) we will send more weapons and the Chinese and Russians will do the same, countries could fragment or borders become redefined along religious/ethnic lines which may make more sense (Iraq for example).

I've been studying the conflicts in the ME, North Africa and even Ukraine for years especially as in 2014 I felt that the war in Syria and war in Ukraine appeared to coincide with the massive drop in oil prices and the Saudis hurting their US allies by cracking up production....I agree in part it was to curb the shale drillers but oil is a strategic resource and it can and has been used in the passed to pressure customer countries to do things.

Fact is the Saudis made a huge mistake in being drawn in to Yemen, they have lost a huge amount of materials although much of their dead are mercinaries hired from outside the country...places like Pakistan and Sudan.

I'm also not taking sides and try to be pragmatic but I don't really understand the hysteria about Iran, the idea they are the main state sponsor of terrorism is rediculous as most terror attacks are commited by sunnis, they aren't really a threat to the West as we could flatten them in a few weeks. They are a funder of Hezbollah which causes Israel a lot of headaches granted but I'm not Israeli and don't care....indeed the Israelis have 150 nuclear weapons and could turn Iran into glass if they so chose to.

Tensions will continue for the forseable future but I expect they'll be low level and proxy war rather than full blow wars and the US won't, nor anyone else, shed their soldiers blood for the Kingdom in my opinion...i think we're all spent and broke from the last 2-3 decades in the ME.

Anyway...that's my rambling and barely coherrent thought for today.

Off shift in 40 minutes lol

P.s excuse the typos or lack of sources, I can dig out a load of old stuff in anyone is interested but I wish I'd been documenting it properly

Edited by El Nikko
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Ability to use surface to air missiles beneficial but not mandatory 😆

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10 days later, still no US shooty shooty? 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤔 or any for that matter...

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1 hour ago, DayTrader said:

Let’s see....

Trump did not relieve sanctions on North Korea to facilitate further useless dialogue.

Trump did not remove tariffs on Chinese goods to get them back to the table.

But suddenly he offers to remove sanctions on Tehran to discuss terms with Iran which nobody believes they would honor in any case.

Does anyone else think this is BS?

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(edited)

15 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Does anyone else think this is BS?

Don't shooty shooty the messenger, that won't help with your oil price.

56.4 now

Edited by DayTrader

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14 hours ago, El Nikko said:

Fact is the Saudis made a huge mistake in being drawn in to Yemen, they have lost a huge amount of materials although much of their dead are mercinaries hired from outside the country...places like Pakistan and Sudan.

The Saudis weren't drawn into Yemen, MBS sought it out aggressively, even did a coup of sorts to implement. MBS has an amazing poor grasp of power external to palace intrigue. His Qatar adventures didn't go so well either.

Overall think you are dead on.

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23 minutes ago, John Foote said:

The Saudis weren't drawn into Yemen, MBS sought it out aggressively, even did a coup of sorts to implement. MBS has an amazing poor grasp of power external to palace intrigue. His Qatar adventures didn't go so well either.

Overall think you are dead on.

Yes it was unbelievable hubris on his part. There was one video of a huge convoy of low-loaders coming back across the border with many (as in tens and tens) blown up tanks and APCs etc on the back of them. I guess he should remember to never underestimate fighters that wear sandles.

Apparently they've agreed to another cease fire which is slightly annoying, as much as I am against war it's not helpful for the oil prices, we need more droney action and soon :)

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Reports of a huge Houthi ambush on the Saudi military, waiting for more footage to be able to see if this is definitely true. They claim to have captured or killed higher ranking officers

From pro Houthi/Iran/Syria news (obviously take with a pinch of salt)

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/houthi-forces-capture-saudi-army-officers-in-big-attack-along-yemeni-border/

One poor quality video but appears to show a large number of military vehicles

https://twitter.com/thoulfikar3ali/status/1177954371461681152
 

Southfront is pro-Russia and in turn will make supportive articles towards Iran, Syria and Houthis but I will say more often than not their claims can be verified via other sources.

https://southfront.org/operation-victory-from-god-houthis-neutralize-thousands-of-saudi-led-coalition-personnel-in-large-scale-ambush/

All of these news sources have to be treated with caution but I do find video footage is the most accurate way we have of determining what is happening in these conflicts.

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1) A US-Iran War would be over in about 30 minutes. We have lots of assets in Kuwait. 2) Iran is socioeconomically isolated. They have no one to turn to. 3) Any reasonable country would suck it up and rejoin the world economy—not Iran. 4) Rather than starve down to a third world country they will do something stupid. 5) What is the most stupid thing they can do? Interrupt the Persian Gulf shipping lanes. 6) That will get them hit by US forces. 7) Like I said, we’re looking at about 30 minutes. 8) Price of oil? $70 max, for a week, then persistent decline to 40s. 9) Why? That’s where the super majors want it: so they can pick off the other shale oil companies. 10) Reasoning? It costs EOG $32 to lift a barrel of oil in Lea County New Mexico, but because of scale Oxy can do it for $12. 11) I may have to jump out a window somewhere. Maybe I can find a first floor window. 😂

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So the Houthis just reported that they destroyed a Saudi Brigade and offered a lot of proof.  Looks like the USA puppet, KSA is getting it's ass kicked and there is more.  The Crown Prince's bodyguard was shot dead and a high speed rail station in Jedda is on fire billowing black smoke.  Looks bad for KSA this weekend, MBS better be hiding in his bunker.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-saudi/yemens-houthis-say-footage-shows-attack-on-saudi-border-frontline-idUSKBN1WE0E9

 

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1178294977895522304

 

https://youtu.be/KEWtwMx38yc

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