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Experts review drone damage . Say Saudis need to do a lot of explaining.

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I suggest they learn the 'defence' part. Then we would have all saved ourselves about 18 threads on here. 

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24 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Hey, if it is so easy to build drones or missiles capable of carrying a significant payload and being guided with pinpoint accuracy.... Why have the Palestinians been using unguided Qassam rockets for decades?

Because they are dirt ass poor who can't even pay for water and have to have it gifted to them by the Israelis. 

And thankfully most people are lazy which makes them dumb. 

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6 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

image.png.c97bba532c7242136edb1a307db4a88b.png

70% of Saudi Arabians aged 18-60 do not work, vast majority of others work in government jobs or are force employed by foreign companies (you want to run business in Saudi Arabia you have to employ certain number of Saudis, they do not have to appear at workplace, but need to be formally employed, it is a sort of tax)

Saudi Arabia is truly medieval country, that was very, very lucky they sit on vast, easy to extract crude oil deposits.

They are totally reliant on foreign contractors in nearly every area because they lack educated people, because they have no decent schools.

MbS is doing a lot of good things for the country, true leader, but he cannot improve education system overnight.

 

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(edited)

18 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

It’s one thing to have the hardware, it’s another to have the ability and will to use it

Kind of like most people on sportbikes.

(Wait for smart assed comment by James...😂).

@Douglas Buckland You are 100% correct, most dont use 60% of the bike, some of us have been radicalised and strive for precision. I could ride by bike across the sand, and place limit mines on the tanks or down hole CST charges and make those holes.

Equipment Required:

  • 4 stroke dirt bike- 2 stroke too loud
  • Ladder
  • Said ordinance
  • Whereabout of MBS to receive my payment, or one of his dudes, who preferably rode bikes as well, no dish dash, doesn't look cool.

Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 04.34.51.png

Edited by James Regan
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(edited)

Ok  @Marcin    . Does that have any significance to the meme?

Or just history lesson?  ;) 

Or are you suggesting they are not educated so they should buy this defence and then USA fights their battles anyway?

Edited by DayTrader

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6 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Or are you suggesting they are not educated so they should buy this defence and then USA fights their battles anyway?

That is what I wanted to say, they cannot operate majority of this sophisticated stuff,

are totally reliant on US to take any actions, and I actually admire Trump Administration that they play current situation

in such an impeccable way, so that there is an illusion that Saudi Arabia is a partner, makes decitions etc.

Marvellous

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3 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Marvellous

Gotcha. Cheers for clarifying.

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(edited)

20 hours ago, wrs said:

So why are the other fires still burning?

stillflaring917e17W.png

Satellite view. Those are big fires ! 

Even if a missile came in short does sand in the middle of the desert burn like that ? 

Or were fires set ?

DID YOU SEE THEY SAID ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEMS WERE FACING SOUTH TOWARD YEMEN.  So didn't pick up missiles coming from the north. 

Too Funny.

THEY REALLY SAID THIS. The U.S. military intelligence published that the first drone strike on the Saudi pipeline pump stations came from the Northeast , not south. Saudis are incredibly stupid or liars. 

Remember this is a group that killed jpurnalist Khashoggi in their own consulate after Khashoggi told them his fiance` was waiting outside in the car.

U.S. Secretary Pompeo named Iran from the very beginning. To admit to that would make him look very irresponsible and impulsive.  Not a good look for U.S. Secretary of State.

To out Saudi fraud would have major diplomatic and security implications. 

Trump still has hope that MBS will help deliver a peace deal for Israel. Trump would consider that his major accomplishment. He did what all other Presidents back to Carter tried and failed.

Why did Saudi Arabia suddenly change from months to repair, delay loadings to China, will have to buy more heavy oil, etc to No Problem.  Oil was heading to 70 or more.  

They were caught in a big lie.

Look back to my prediction. I said probably will find some missile parts. (they never found Khashoggi parts)

Edited by Jabbar
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8 hours ago, Marcin said:

70% of Saudi Arabians aged 18-60 do not work,

Really? When I worked there (6 years ago) unemployment among young Saudies was an issue but it wasn’t anywhere close to 70%

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4 hours ago, Jabbar said:

Satellite view. Those are big fires ! 

Even if a missile came in short does sand in the middle of the desert burn like that ? 

Or were fires set ?

Have you heard of emergency flare stacks? That’s what annotation on image actually says.  They trace length of Ghawar, largest oilfield in the world. 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, DanilKa said:

Have you heard of emergency flare stacks?  They trace length of Ghawar, largest oilfield in the world. 

I was responding to poster wrs .  He posted the picture and stated they were fires started by drone attack.

Talk to him, wrs.

Edited by Jabbar
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1 hour ago, DanilKa said:

Really? When I worked there (6 years ago) unemployment among young Saudies was an issue but it wasn’t anywhere close to 70%

Remember roughly 50% of them are women, most who don't work. The time bomb is the 25-40% unemployed 25 and under men. The over 40 group. Many were born in a mud hut, so life is much better than they knew growing up. Those born later, in the age of satellite TV and government largess, they see things getting worse. Though for now they are happy to have movie theaters and women that drive. Saudi could unload 10 million people and do their own work in theory, but it's not so simple. 

Oil could go to $125 and the fundamental patronage, government system still is in trouble, you just change the date. 

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16 minutes ago, John Foote said:

 

Oil could go to $125 and the fundamental patronage, government system still is in trouble, you just change the date. 

What do u think Saudi Arabia will look like in 5 years ? 10 years ?

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10 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

What do u think Saudi Arabia will look like in 5 years ? 10 years ?

5 years? Kind of like it does now. 

When it goes catastrophic, no idea, and I hope it doesn't. But continuing down this path, it's ugly before 10 years hits.

Much of what MBS wants to do is right. The how he is trying, nope, just increases the bleed rate of cash. Movie theaters and women driving, a mild normalization of life, that has bought him a lot of good will. If leadership doesn't change I expect we'll eventually see draconian policing, kind of like Egypt. MBS has to give up idea of running the Middle East to his will, his adventurism into Yemen and Qatar are unmitigated, expensive failures. Worry less about Iran, and more about the lives on the people in Saudi Arabia. 

Oddly enough, my great hope is the women. I met more than a few professional women, worked for one, and they were typically over-achievers. I know some wonderful men too, but there are a lot who are in the government patronage system, and don't see it for what it is. It is the only life they know, so it's hard to change. 

Oman, going back to 1970, is proof the right leadership can turn things for the better quickly in an Arab society. Arabs are fine people in many ways, and typically more family oriented than westerners. 

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6 hours ago, Jabbar said:

Satellite view. Those are big fires ! 

Even if a missile came in short does sand in the middle of the desert burn like that ? 

Or were fires set ?

Those are flares from GOSPs along the pipeline from the Ghawar field.  The pipeline had to be shut off because Abquiq cannot take either any inputs at all or not as much.  So in order to relieve pressure on the lines without shutting the fields in, they are flaring.  Imagine what it takes to keep the water flood going in those fields and how long it would take to restart it if they stopped.  

I think as long as we continue to see satellite images of those flares, Abquiq isn't doing shit.  Besides that, the spheroids that have big holes poked in them were pressurized vessels that depressure the water oil mixture before it goes to the stabilizer columns.

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1 hour ago, Jabbar said:

I was responding to poster wrs .  He posted the picture and stated they were fires started by drone attack.

Talk to him, wrs.

Nonsense, I never said that.  Read the post again and read the caption on the picture I posted.

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(edited)

On 9/17/2019 at 7:32 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

So what are you suggesting? Are you saying that the Saudis blew up their own facility in sone ‘false flag’ conspiracy?

Yes.

Didn't blow up own facility. Just made it look like that.  About 70% back yesterday,  100% by end of month. 

A couple of million dollar damage would get them 75$ to 80$ oil an increase of between 50 to100 million  revenue day. Good return investment.

But they were caught.  Your U.S. inspectors ruined everything. 

Saudis going to take their complaint to U.N.  Most think Russia and China will veto any vote in the Security Council.

Not sure.  China has large number of projects in Iran but 75$ oil scares them. 

Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

On 9/17/2019 at 7:32 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

So what are you suggesting? Are you saying that the Saudis blew up their own facility in sone ‘false flag’ conspiracy?

Douglas

Do you believe Saudi Arabia when they say they missed 20 missiles and drones flying toward their oil facilities because the anti-missile detection and destruction systems were pointed in the wrong direction ?

They were told the first drone attack a couple of months ago came from the Northeast , not the south.

They actually used this as an excuse. Really.

SA should buy a Russian AS-400 system for protection like Turkey did.

I don't know who really did it but SA is either very inept or stupid or a liar.

 

Edited by Jabbar

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On 9/17/2019 at 10:30 AM, Jabbar said:

  .  .  .  .  .  .

I predict you will hear latter today something like. 

" The origin of the missiles/drones are somewhere near the Iraq and Iran border.  We don't know if it was sanctioned by Iran leaders, rouge Iranian Republican Guard or sympathetic militia in Iraq. Without definitive origin or specific culprit we can not retaliate at this time". 

Come back . .  .  .  .  

They might produce some drone or missile fragments to give credence to their story.

Saudis save face, Trump saves face and nobody gets bombed.

 

 

 

I posted above yesterday morning. I might be more right than wrong

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23 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

I don't know who really did it but SA is either very inept or stupid or a liar.

May I suggest all 3

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Jabbar said:

Yes.

Didn't blow up own facility. Just made it look like that.  About 70% back yesterday,  100% by end of month. 

A couple of million dollar damage would get them 75$ to 80$ oil an increase of between 50 to100 million  revenue day. Good return investment.

But they were caught.  Your U.S. inspectors ruined everything. 

Saudis going to take their complaint to U.N.  Most think Russia and China will veto any vote in the Security Council.

Not sure.  China has large number of projects in Iran but 75$ oil scares them. 

70% was not back yesterday, 100% will not be back by the end of the month.  You aren't even following the discussions about this if you are making such silly statements.  Each spheroid represents a bottleneck in the oil processing.  There are 11 of them and I think they said 8 are damaged.  There are four we can see that have big holes like this.  That's not a fake attack.  There were five facilities hit.

Read this to get a good description of the other facilities they are not talking about.  This article says the other fires are processing plants.  It identifies them and assumes they were hit.  They appear to be gas processing plants so not sure if they are GOSPs flaring or if they were attacked.  

 

spheriodupclose.jpg

Edited by wrs
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On 9/17/2019 at 7:28 AM, Jabbar said:

Experts question how attacks were so precise.  They knew exactly what to hit. 

Saudis need to explain 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-arabia-has-to-explain-how-its-oil-assets-in-abqaiq-were-attacked-says-ex-us-diplomat.html

Also, If you overlay GoogleMap on dramatic photo of billowing smoke you will see fire is not in oil processing plant or near complex but in the desert with a few roads and maybe some pipelines.  It is to southeast of the complex. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/drone-attack-on-saudi-oil-field-seen-as-pearl-harbor-moment

NEW: The Saudi government now say Anti-Missile Defense Systems were pointed to the South toward Yemen so did not detect incoming over 20 missiles and drones from the north..

U.S. military intelligence  determined first attack a couple of months ago on Saudi pipeline came from the Northeast not from Yemen Houthis in south.

The Saudi government didn't get the memo ? 

You can't make this up. 

 

Caught in a lie

 

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(edited)

On 9/17/2019 at 7:28 AM, Jabbar said:

Experts question how attacks were so precise.  They knew exactly what to hit. 

Saudis need to explain 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-arabia-has-to-explain-how-its-oil-assets-in-abqaiq-were-attacked-says-ex-us-diplomat.html

Also, If you overlay GoogleMap on dramatic photo of billowing smoke you will see fire is not in oil processing plant or near complex but in the desert with a few roads and maybe some pipelines.  It is to southeast of the complex. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-15/drone-attack-on-saudi-oil-field-seen-as-pearl-harbor-moment

NEW: The Saudi government now say Anti-Missile Defense Systems were pointed to the South toward Yemen so did not detect incoming over 20 missiles and drones from the north..

U.S. military intelligence  determined first attack a couple of months ago on Saudi pipeline came from the Northeast not from Yemen Houthis in south.

The Saudi government didn't get the memo ? 

You can't make this up. 

 

In the end nothing good will come out of this. Life goes on.

Just another, Crisis of the Day.

Something new tomorrow.

Edited by Jabbar

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I originally posted this on Redflagdeals and copy pasted it to here.  I worked as a Journeyman Electrician in the Canadian oilsands since 2005 with some live plant and construction experience (got my ticket in 2004 working commercial work). This is an interesting conversation as I immediately said to my dad that there is now way they could re-build in just 2 weeks, unless damage was VERY minimal (HIGHLY UNLIKELY judging by the video).  But to inspect everything after a fire like and know what needs to be replaced in 2 days would be impossible.  

My original post start here:

Most people that comment on these situations have never worked in an oil/gas plant, so they do not realize how much WORK actually goes into a fire rebuild or the initial construction of one. 

Just from an electricians perspective, you have to install cable tray, then pull power cables, instrument cables, control cables, fire alarm cables, all which may have melted insulation from the fire. Most of the time you will also need a boom truck to carry the cable reels to the location prior to pulling. Some cable reels I have moved have been around 15,000 pounds. Some pulls will also require a tugger for the bigger cable which involves setting up sheaves and rollers (approximately every 5 feet), think about cable that is around 10-15 pounds per foot. Before replacing anything though they will first they have to figure out what needs replacing, then they will have to order the material. Some of it may even need to be manufactured. Once a cable is pulled into place you should point to point the cable, and megger it if it is a power cable to check for insulation integrity. Then once that is done you have to strip the outer jacket, install a Teck connector, gland the cable, strip the inner jacket, then finally terminate it. You will also have garbage to clean up from the left over cable and jackets. If they do have lots of cable to replace you also have to consider if the existing cable trays are completely full, so you may have to strip out the damaged cable before even starting to pull new (should be done anyways but they are in a rush). Everything takes time. Instruments could have been damaged and need replacing as well. If something like an I/O building or E-house (electrical) was damaged it could even be worse as this is where many cable originate from, panels might need replacing. Guaranteed they don't have all of this material sitting around as backup just in case of an attack.

This is just from my perspective as an electrician who has work 15+ years (got ticked in 2004 from commercial work and started in oil plants in 2005), from construction to live plants. Who knows what the extent of the damage was though, but I feel they are trying to make it sound not as bad as it is judging by how big the fire was. They don't want a spike in oil prices from panic leading to a major recession. Also, I don't think Saudi wants to show vulnerability. In this case it was not only the fire they have to contend with, but also the explosions from the drone strike which could have caused additional damage. Could pipelines and flow valves have been damaged? Oil plants look crude, but they are actually very complex. I have always been told start up and re-starting a plant is always the most dangerous time to be in a plant as well....They better make sure they did the work right, especially if they are in a rush. There is a LOT of testing/pre commissioning work before restarting a plant. You don't just go and turn it back on.

I am pretty sure after the 2005 fire at Suncor it took around 8 months for the rebuild, and that was in a relatively small part of the plant compared to multiple drone strikes throughout the Saudis plant. 

You can put as much manpower on a job as you want, but when there are too many people in one area, just like rush hour traffic, it just takes longer because people are in each others way.

Full disclosure, I bought around $45,000 worth of CND mid cap oil stock last Wed. and Thursday. Today I purchased another $25,000 in CND mid cad oil stocks. 

If Saudi is back to full production in 2-3 weeks it won't be from their 2 plants that were damaged from these attacks. They might try and fudge the numbers from their stockpiles though, which is what I think they are going to do.

Another thing I will add to this that I didn't think of in my original post was that even before rebuilding it would most likely take weeks to install scaffolding to work off of....Plus they would most likely have to bring scaffolders to site as well as the scaffolding.  Just to inspect what is wrong them would most likely need scaffolding to access some areas, as EWP's (elevated work platforms) can't access everything and are a pain to work off for some situations.

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