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Experts review drone damage . Say Saudis need to do a lot of explaining.

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7 hours ago, John Foote said:

Saudi could unload 10 million people and do their own work in theory, but it's not so simple. 

Oil could go to $125 and the fundamental patronage, government system still is in trouble, you just change the date. 

There is no denying KSA have serious potential for social unrest and economy is skewed towards oil. I’m not buying megacities largess or silly solar projects (need lots of 3rd countries workers to dust it off after sand storms). Just never heard of unemployment number that high. Terminology, perhaps? Unemployment is only calculated for those who actively seeking jobs; work force participation rate is for general population. 

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1 hour ago, PINGFan said:

Full disclosure, I bought around $45,000 worth of CND mid cap oil stock last Wed. and Thursday. Today I purchased another $25,000 in CND mid cad oil stocks

I’ve heard Canadian refiners are struggling without ME imports. Ironic, isn’t it? Courtesy your government and foreign-funded eco-worriers (as per Vivian Krause). Hope you’ll be alright on your trade. 

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Still burning this morning.  If these are emergency flares then Abquiq it would seem, is still shut down.  

stillflaring918.jpg

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9 minutes ago, DanilKa said:

I’ve heard Canadian refiners are struggling without ME imports. Ironic, isn’t it? Courtesy your government and foreign-funded eco-worriers (as per Vivian Krause). Hope you’ll be alright on your trade. 

Thanks:). I am looking at it as more of a long term buy (1-2 years hopefully).  I mostly either index with a U.S. index fund and buy dividend paying stock like the Canadian banks and utilities, I try and stay well diversified.

Yes, it is ironic and frustrating.  We could have had a lot more work in Alberta with a pipeline or two.  I haven't worked as an electrician in over 2 years now. Almost every electrician I know isn't working. I heard there were over 10,000 out of work in Alberta.  At least I have a job in a warehouse now, but I am making around 5 times less annually.  

That would be the Irving refinery in Eastern Canada.  We have a problem with lack of pipelines in this country, Energy East was stopped mostly due to Quebec not wanting a pipeline through their province (although they received around 12 billion in equalization payments last year mostly at the expense of Alberta).  If you have read Vivian Krause you already know what I am talking about...We do have our own refineries in Alberta though.  It is pretty sad when pipelines in Canada are being blocked both east and west (British Columbia) by other provinces even thought the federal government could build them out of national interest.  The Canadian government even spent over 4.5 billion of taxpayers dollars to buy the Trans mountain pipeline from Kinder Morgan but there are always road blocks through the courts.

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(edited)

5 hours ago, wrs said:

 

spheriodupclose.jpg

The hole in the spherical tank is LOCATED RIGHT BELOW THE TOP OF THE SERVICE STAIRWAY ON ALL 10 TANKS   !  !  !

The hole in all 10 tanks are located in the exact same spot ? Right below top of access stairway.

IT HAS THE APPEARANCE AS IF SOMEONE WALKED TO THE TOP OF THE TANK AND TOOK LIMPET MINES  AND ATTACHED THEM IN EXACTLY THE SAME PLACE ON ALL TEN TANKS.

NOT EVEN A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS ?

Quote from Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih in August:  "We will do whatever necessary "

Do you not think SA would have loved to get oil back to 80 dollar ? 

THEY GOT CAUGHT.  

Edited by Jabbar
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1 hour ago, Jabbar said:

The hole in the spherical tank is LOCATED RIGHT BELOW THE TOP OF THE SERVICE STAIRWAY ON ALL 10 TANKS   !  !  !

The hole in all 10 tanks are located in the exact same spot ? Right below top of access stairway.

IT HAS THE APPEARANCE AS IF SOMEONE WALKED TO THE TOP OF THE TANK AND TOOK LIMPET MINES  AND ATTACHED THEM IN EXACTLY THE SAME PLACE ON ALL TEN TANKS.

NOT EVEN A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS ?

Quote from Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih in August:  "We will do whatever necessary "

Do you not think SA would have loved to get oil back to 80 dollar ? 

THEY GOT CAUGHT.  

If it's a false flag, they'd want to demonstrate how they can get back in business quickly. The holes would be easy to access by welders and other repairmen. Also the tanks would have been emptied or filled with water. The spy novel fan in me loves this line of thought. Real? Who knows? 

Good pictures here

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(edited)

5 hours ago, PINGFan said:

Thanks:). I am looking at it as more of a long term buy (1-2 years hopefully).  I mostly either index with a U.S. index fund and buy dividend paying stock like the Canadian banks and utilities, I try and stay well diversified.

Yes, it is ironic and frustrating.  We could have had a lot more work in Alberta with a pipeline or two.  I haven't worked as an electrician in over 2 years now. Almost every electrician I know isn't working. I heard there were over 10,000 out of work in Alberta.  At least I have a job in a warehouse now, but I am making around 5 times less annually.  

That would be the Irving refinery in Eastern Canada.  We have a problem with lack of pipelines in this country, Energy East was stopped mostly due to Quebec not wanting a pipeline through their province (although they received around 12 billion in equalization payments last year mostly at the expense of Alberta).  If you have read Vivian Krause you already know what I am talking about...We do have our own refineries in Alberta though.  It is pretty sad when pipelines in Canada are being blocked both east and west (British Columbia) by other provinces even thought the federal government could build them out of national interest.  The Canadian government even spent over 4.5 billion of taxpayers dollars to buy the Trans mountain pipeline from Kinder Morgan but there are always road blocks through the courts.

Canada is toast. To paraphrase, you get what you vote for.  Trudope may be gone soon, so maybe the new PM will bring some positive changes. One can only hope. 

5 hours ago, Jabbar said:

The hole in the spherical tank is LOCATED RIGHT BELOW THE TOP OF THE SERVICE STAIRWAY ON ALL 10 TANKS   !  !  !

The hole in all 10 tanks are located in the exact same spot ? Right below top of access stairway.

IT HAS THE APPEARANCE AS IF SOMEONE WALKED TO THE TOP OF THE TANK AND TOOK LIMPET MINES  AND ATTACHED THEM IN EXACTLY THE SAME PLACE ON ALL TEN TANKS.

NOT EVEN A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS ?

Quote from Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih in August:  "We will do whatever necessary "

Do you not think SA would have loved to get oil back to 80 dollar ? 

THEY GOT CAUGHT.  

Right on!  The whole story is a fabrication.  Like the WMD in Iraq.  

Edited by 4cryingoutloud
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10 hours ago, wrs said:

There are four we can see that have big holes like this. 

Could you see time stamp on this photo? Wanted to verify side of the hole (from shadow). From aerial foto with North pointer it appear to be WWS; US and Saudi claim attack came from North. If West confirmed and there was no 90deg trajectory change - launch pad was inside the Kingdom

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10 hours ago, Jabbar said:

The hole in the spherical tank is LOCATED RIGHT BELOW THE TOP OF THE SERVICE STAIRWAY ON ALL 10 TANKS   !  !  !

The hole in all 10 tanks are located in the exact same spot ? Right below top of access stairway.

IT HAS THE APPEARANCE AS IF SOMEONE WALKED TO THE TOP OF THE TANK AND TOOK LIMPET MINES  AND ATTACHED THEM IN EXACTLY THE SAME PLACE ON ALL TEN TANKS.

NOT EVEN A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS ?

Quote from Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih in August:  "We will do whatever necessary "

Do you not think SA would have loved to get oil back to 80 dollar ? 

THEY GOT CAUGHT.  

The hole in that one is close to the service stair but not on all the others.  That's a coincidence.  The top one in this picture appears to have two holes in it and it's different than the other three.  You are grasping at straws.

 

Still flaring today.

 

SPHereoids7WsAEW9uJ.jpg

zoomearth919.png

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4 hours ago, DanilKa said:

Could you see time stamp on this photo? Wanted to verify side of the hole (from shadow). From aerial foto with North pointer it appear to be WWS; US and Saudi claim attack came from North. If West confirmed and there was no 90deg trajectory change - launch pad was inside the Kingdom

It's stripped.  Most pictures on the internet have been stripped.

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I would consider it unlikely that someone would have brought a truckload of mines into the complex and had a platoon of men simultaneously climb up onto those tanks, set timers, and then skedaddle out of there.  There are too many employees walking around for that to go un-noticed.  Let's not let conspiracy theories run rampant. 

The more logical explanation lies in the idea that these were fired off with shorter range from some point inside SA.  The discussion of the shadows would suggest a west-southwest launch point.  Note that the impact points seem to be at the crown of the globe when facing from the west.  OK, so if the rocket has some sort of camera fitted, and it is guided into the target, all from the same launch area, then it is logical that the rocket will strike at the mid-point of the presented face, which would be the bulge of the tank facing WSW.  And that would explain the similarity of impact points on the tanks. 

As to the lack of tank fires: remember that a pressure wave is developed on a blast.  That wave would compress inward, and blow out any flame possibility.  Also the inside of the tank, where the oil sits, is without oxygen, so there is nothing to burn with.  It is logical that the impact would not self-ignite.  I suspect there would not be a lot of residual heat to ignite vapors after the event; it is a blast, pressure wave, and extinguishment.  All over. 

I am left with the idea that a "rat patrol" type of incursion made it across the desert to a launch point, perhaps 20 or 40 miles away.  That desert is empty enough, not as if there are a hundred thousand soldiers stationed out there with binoculars, now are there? 

And, if WSW was the trajectory, then that excuses the Iran IRGC, as they would be on the other side of those tanks.  That leaves the Houthis, and also disgruntled Saudis seeking to topple MBS.   Middle East politics is murky enough. 

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11 hours ago, PINGFan said:

.We do have our own refineries in Alberta though.

Yet, those smallish refineries produce product for the local area.  That output does not seem to get exported to Ontario, for example. Ontario buys its finished product from refineries located in Sarnia and across the Detroit River in Michigan. 

6 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

even thought the federal government could build them out of national interest

The roadblock there is the peculiar design of Federal relations with the native First Canadian tribes.  The natives are granted sovereignty over their reservation lands, and thus have the ability to go to court to stop any incursions, which includes pipelines, it would seem.  Thus to build a new line into Prince Rupert apparently requires the unanimous consent of some 65 native tribes.  Hard to do. 

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If those impacts penetrated the steel on the tanks I am wondering if they will open the tanks up to remove shrapnel.  I'm not a pipe fitter, but I know that fitters do steam blows for weeks before startup and I think that is partly to remove any debris in their pipes as debris can damage pumps. 

They might not have even thought of this though, especially when you are in a panic situation trying to get your plant back online in 2 weeks.

 

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6 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

due to Quebec not wanting a pipeline through their province

Quebec picks up its crude oil through an existing pipeline from Portland, Maine to Montreal.  Thus crude can be sourced from either the ME or from Louisiana-Texas, or even the vendors in the Caribbean.  It is a small pipeline but enough to handle the big Montreal refinery. 

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6 hours ago, 4cryingoutloud said:

Canada is toast. To paraphrase, you get what you vote for.  Trudope may be gone soon, so maybe the new PM will bring some positive changes. One can only hope. 

Right on!  The whole story is a fabrication.  Like the WMD in Iraq.  

I agree, you get what you vote for.  In Canada the east mostly votes Liberal as they know they will get more handouts.  The ironic part is Alberta pays billions more than it receives every year in transfer payments, and the receivers block the pipeline.  This country is shooting itself in the foot financially.  

I pray that he is gone, but a coalition minority Liberal government propped up by the greens or NDP could be even worse.  I am hoping for either Scheer or Max Bernier to win.  I will most likely vote for Scheer as he has a far better chance of winning and I don't want to split the vote.  We really need a conservative majority government or them propped up by the PPC for energy to move forward.

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20 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Yet, those smallish refineries produce product for the local area.  That output does not seem to get exported to Ontario, for example. Ontario buys its finished product from refineries located in Sarnia and across the Detroit River in Michigan. 

The roadblock there is the peculiar design of Federal relations with the native First Canadian tribes.  The natives are granted sovereignty over their reservation lands, and thus have the ability to go to court to stop any incursions, which includes pipelines, it would seem.  Thus to build a new line into Prince Rupert apparently requires the unanimous consent of some 65 native tribes.  Hard to do. 

Yes, the refineries are mostly for Alberta, but I think most provinces have their own refineries.

https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/projects/canadian-refineries

But I also keep hearing they don't want to build more refineries because the cost of building a new refinery takes close to 25 years to pay off, especially when companies already have refineries in the U.S. capable meeting Canada's needs.

It is a peculiar situation, that is for sure.  The funny thing is many of natives actually want the pipeline as it will be a source of income for them.  Some even wanted to purchase it.

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21 hours ago, DanilKa said:

There is no denying KSA have serious potential for social unrest and economy is skewed towards oil. I’m not buying megacities largess or silly solar projects (need lots of 3rd countries workers to dust it off after sand storms). Just never heard of unemployment number that high. Terminology, perhaps? Unemployment is only calculated for those who actively seeking jobs; work force participation rate is for general population. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/812955/youth-unemployment-rate-in-saudi-arabia/

And those are numbers they will fess up too. A lot of the young employed are really in paid-to-attend training programs, not what most of us would call jobs. 

Solar has real potential there, partly because of much of the country has diesel electric and off-grid electric.

But for solar to compete, you can't subsidize the oil and diesel. In an engineered economy things by definition are out of whack, and that is why they are engineered because it doesn't make sense otherwise. There is fish farm growing caviar in a country that doesn't have a single natural fresh water river, wtf? The area in the north west part of the country is fab to visit, and it would do well for the niche' eco/adventure tourist, but I can't imagine KSA being a tourist hub knocking off Dubai or Oman. 

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7 minutes ago, John Foote said:

But for solar to compete, you can't subsidize the oil and diesel. In an engineered economy things by definition are out of whack, and that is why they are engineered because it doesn't make sense otherwise.

Use of Photovoltaics is quite suitable for ME energy consumption profile during summer (AC). For Solar to work, it needs to be demonstrated how the panels could be effectively cleaned from ever present dust, especially after sandstorms. 

saudiarabia_amo_2005157_lrg.jpg

Friends who worked in manufacturing complained about locals work attitude - spoiled by “Saudization” push. Some of my Saudi friends are pretty hardworking dudes. 

Agree that structural reforms are needed to make it a market economy and it has to start with energy (power, fuel, water) market liberalisation. Only way it can be sold to the public is via generous subsidies but there is knock-on effect on inflation and energy-intensive businesses you’ve mention will go bust. I guess this can of worms won’t be touched. 

Making solar use for desalination makes perfect sense but why bother if Aramco is obligated to supply local consumers? 

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11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I would consider it unlikely that someone would have brought a truckload of mines into the complex and had a platoon of men simultaneously climb up onto those tanks, set timers, and then skedaddle out of there.  There are too many employees walking around for that to go un-noticed.  Let's not let conspiracy theories run rampant. 

The more logical explanation lies in the idea that these were fired off with shorter range from some point inside SA.  The discussion of the shadows would suggest a west-southwest launch point.  Note that the impact points seem to be at the crown of the globe when facing from the west.  OK, so if the rocket has some sort of camera fitted, and it is guided into the target, all from the same launch area, then it is logical that the rocket will strike at the mid-point of the presented face, which would be the bulge of the tank facing WSW.  And that would explain the similarity of impact points on the tanks. 

As to the lack of tank fires: remember that a pressure wave is developed on a blast.  That wave would compress inward, and blow out any flame possibility.  Also the inside of the tank, where the oil sits, is without oxygen, so there is nothing to burn with.  It is logical that the impact would not self-ignite.  I suspect there would not be a lot of residual heat to ignite vapors after the event; it is a blast, pressure wave, and extinguishment.  All over. 

I am left with the idea that a "rat patrol" type of incursion made it across the desert to a launch point, perhaps 20 or 40 miles away.  That desert is empty enough, not as if there are a hundred thousand soldiers stationed out there with binoculars, now are there? 

And, if WSW was the trajectory, then that excuses the Iran IRGC, as they would be on the other side of those tanks.  That leaves the Houthis, and also disgruntled Saudis seeking to topple MBS.   Middle East politics is murky enough. 

No "rat patrol", but paid Aramco employees. Seems counter-intuitive I agree. On the other hand, there's two ways to win here. One, the price of oil goes up immediately, two, because of pre planning, they can indeed rapidly come back online, all while benefiting from the "new" high prices. Third I guess would be the prestige gain from such quick recovery. Occam's razor says no, but 3d chess says maybe…

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1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

No "rat patrol", but paid Aramco employees

That is an interesting theory.  I think where it would come apart is then there are too many people "in the know," and at some point the facts would leak out.  Then the Saudi government would look ridiculous.  And MbS would have no credibility on the world stage.  It strikes me as a very high-risk venture for KSA to blow up their own installation. 

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Just now, Jan van Eck said:

That is an interesting theory.  I think where it would come apart is then there are too many people "in the know," and at some point the facts would leak out.  Then the Saudi government would look ridiculous.  And MbS would have no credibility on the world stage.  It strikes me as a very high-risk venture for KSA to blow up their own installation. 

The US has its "Dark State", who says the kingdom doesn't have their own? I'm not saying they used oil people, saying they had normal looking security folks who just happened to be carrying large "lunch buckets". Whether MBS orchestrated it, or whether some "relatives" with their own agendas did it… Your call

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5 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

That is an interesting theory.

LOL Jan a few hours ago you were saying about not resorting to theories and conspiracies etc?

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1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

Whether MBS orchestrated it, or whether some "relatives" with their own agendas did it… Your call

I agree it is entirely plausible that the enemies of MbS did this, in order to give him a black eye and make him look incompetent.  But that would likely not be from within.  I would speculate that a rocket or cruise attack from out in the desert would work just fine. Who would be expecting a drone/rocket/cruise attack from the West Desert?  Hey, there is nothing out there..... 

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1 minute ago, DayTrader said:

LOL Jan a few hours ago you were saying about not resorting to theories and conspiracies etc?

Shhhush!   The walls have ears.......

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