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Experts review drone damage . Say Saudis need to do a lot of explaining.

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(edited)

57 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

That is an interesting theory.  I think where it would come apart is then there are too many people "in the know," and at some point the facts would leak out.  Then the Saudi government would look ridiculous.  And MbS would have no credibility on the world stage.  It strikes me as a very high-risk venture for KSA to blow up their own installation. 

Take into consideration the Saudis aren't the smartest people around. They took hostage and cut up Khashoggi in their own consulate in Turkey after Khashoggi told them his fiance` was waiting outside in the car.

You don't understand the enemies al-Saud his within and outside the country. Realize Saudi Arabia will not survive with steady oil 50$ U.S. 

Damage to Spherical tanks

The large spherical tanks that were all damaged in the same location just below the top of the outside service stairway.

1.  These tanks were custom built many years ago. They were used to remove the toxic Hydrogen Sulfide (HS2) gas from the crude. The process takes a lot of time, relatively expensive and you lose crude yield of about 10%.  

2. Aramco figured out they get less loss, save time and save money if they (a)  remove at their refineries, which they increased capacity or (b) just vent or flare at the wellhead. THEY DONT USE THEM ANYMORE.  Why do you think they selectively targeted them dispersed  over the complex geography ? 

The attack supposedly took place in the night pre-dawn.  The night crew had plenty of time to affix the charges.

Trump said Saudis will determine origin . Doesn't make sense. U.S. has technology.

Today Pentagon said not 100% sure attack originated in Iran.  Then came out and said Saudis will determine origin of attack.

NEXT WEEK THE CONTRACT PRICE FOR OCTOBER DELIVER IS SET.  

THE SAUDI ALWAYS MOVE THE STRIKE PRICE UP.  EXPECT MORE REHTORIC AND GRANDSTANDING AND WAR DRUMBEAT UP UNTIL THE OCTOBER CONTRACT PRICE IS SET.  

The Saudi Government can't be trusted. 

Edited by Jabbar
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40 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

But that would likely not be from within.  I would speculate that a rocket or cruise attack from out in the desert would work just fine. Who would be expecting a drone/rocket/cruise attack from the West Desert?  Hey, there is nothing out there..... 

Why not within? MBS probably has three fourths of the House of Saud made, the guests at the Ritz Carlton probably aren't fans, ARAMCO, and the largess of contractors that nurse at its tit don't want an IPO. I don't see it as an inside job, but dam them were accurate.

The Rubah Khali, the Empty Quarter, certainly has lots of almost nothing, but Abqaiq, you'd set up more than 40 miles away and that's not really even on the edge of it. Desert for sure, but not full blown nothingness. And it's darn hard to go hundreds of miles in the Empty Quarter. You have to caravan with extra fuel and water. Plus, while the government might not see you, but some bedouin would. I've been pretty deep into it. But making it from Yemen to near Abqaiq, not feasible without local help. Modern bedouins have tractor trailer rigs so I suppose they could haul some armament around. Had friends who had to abandon tricked out 4x4s six hours deep into the Rhuba Khali. Came back to retrieve their gear the next day and either the entire 4x4 was gone, or in another case, the vehicle stripped cleaned like a vulture picks road kill.

Anyone who finds it in them to visit Saudi for fun, do a few day trip into the Empty Quarter. Amazing, just amazing. The rawness, the stillness, and one a moonless night, the skies are unbelievable. 

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(edited)

Its not hard to believe the Saudis would do this to themselves for economic reasons.  It's also not hard to believe that the Saudis have enemies that would coordinate an attack with Iran or Iran exclusively would execute it.

It is hard when viewing DayTraders meme on the accidental border wall technology discussion.

Edited by Jakridge
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6 hours ago, Jakridge said:

Its not hard to believe the Saudis would do this to themselves for economic reasons.  It's also not hard to believe that the Saudis have enemies that would coordinate an attack with Iran or Iran exclusively would execute it.

It is hard when viewing DayTraders meme on the accidental border wall technology discussion.

I agree that you make excellent points.  It is a murky part of the world.  Everybody is obsequious before you while plotting mayhem and murder behind you.  Jabbar's points (above) that set forth that    "Take into consideration the Saudis aren't the smartest people around. They took hostage and cut up Khashoggi in their own consulate in Turkey after Khashoggi told them his fiance` was waiting outside in the car.

You don't understand the enemies al-Saud his within and outside the country. Realize Saudi Arabia will not survive with steady oil 50$ U.S. "  are an insightful descriptive. I think you two fellows have a good handle on the mentality of that part of the Middle East.  

If those reaction-tanks are not even being used and are physically disconnected from the production system then that is a fascinating aspect that bears exploring.  That implies that the flaring of gas going on off the lines to the South are just for show, and the entire exercise is one of a charade.  From that, the idea that it was done to get the price of crude in the spot market up becomes a logical inference.  The whole thing becomes irrational when the Saudis proceed to crow about how fast it will be repaired.  That would just push the price of crude back down. 

So:  who knows?  At this point, only the people responsible.  The above theories of "limpet mines," or explosive devices placed by hand on the tanks, stands contrary to the claim of finding an Iranian-designed  (and Houthi cloned) cruise-type missile that apparently ran out of fuel and fell in the desert.  How that unexploded piece of ordnance was discovered is yet another murky mystery - finding an object fifteen feet long in a gigantic empty desert within a day or so is a remarkable coincidence.  

Lots of problems here.  As one general once said:   "We don't even know what we don't know."

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7 hours ago, John Foote said:

the guests at the Ritz Carlton probably aren't fans

I presume that is your very polite way of referencing MbS' imprisonment of various royal enemies of his, the ones that did not actually engage is shoot-outs with MbS' guards inside the palace, who got themselves killed and hastily buried.  Yes, those guys are definitely not "fans."  And my guess is that those guys will carry a very long and ill-tempered grudge.  

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 The whole thing becomes irrational when the Saudis proceed to crow about how fast it will be repaired.  That would just push the price of crude back down. 

So:  who knows?  At this point, only the people responsible.  The above theories of "limpet mines," or explosive devices placed by hand on the tanks, stands contrary to the claim of finding an Iranian-designed  (and Houthi cloned) cruise-type missile that apparently ran out of fuel and fell in the desert.  How that unexploded piece of ordnance was discovered is yet another murky mystery - finding an object fifteen feet long in a gigantic empty desert within a day or so is a remarkable coincidence.  

Lots of problems here.  As one general once said:   "We don't even know what we don't know."

Jan

Two possible explanations to your excellent questions.

First, why Saudi crow about quick recovery. My theory is that they were forced into this action simply because they were caught. U.S. Pompeo almost immediately reacted and blamed Iran. Not because he was complicit but because he believed it to be true. He didn't wait for intelligence.  Trump added his "locked and losded" faux pas.  When details started to come in I believe the U.S. may have realized they were taken in by a con. U.S. can't out MBS. Trump and Pompeo can't admit their impulsive premature reaction were wrong.  If they did Iran would receive much sympathy and support from around the world. Notice yesterday the Pentagon said two things.  That they aren't 100% sure the attack originated in Iran and that it's up to Saudi Arabia to determine that and decide on appropriate response.  Did the u.S. come down hard on MBS to cut the bull and get the oil flowing again.  Monday and Tuesday said months to repair. Wednesday it all changed. 

As for the missiles and drones found in the desert.  While the Houthis did not send these missiles they have launched missels into Saudi Arabia for many months with little accuracy.  I believe only one casualty at airport. It is well documented that Iran has smuggled rockets and drone parts into Yemen and the Houthis have made use of them.  The remnants displayed by Saudis could easily been fired by Houthis at populated southern Saudi targets over last two years.  I agree unlikely to find those parts in desert. 

 

  

Edited by Jabbar
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(edited)

The ever changing Saudi story.

The press is in SA for a horse and pony show.

NOW Saudis say anti-missile system didn't pick up missiles because too low, too close to ground. Their original excuse defense systems pointed in the wrong direction is well documented. 

NOW when Saudis asked why the one end stabilization tower that was hit all the other connected stabilization towers did not catch fire and burn up, Saudi responded saying we reacted within 20 minutes to the fire.  They previously said it took 7 hours to put the fires out.

All very selective limited hit . Pentagon is leaving up to Saudis to determine origin of attack.  Because the Pentagon is not going to lie.  You have to ask why the U.S. military defers to Saudis.  Giving them an out ?

Not likely determination until after October contract delivery price set next week.

Iran may have done this .

Saudis may have done this.

Both are liars. Can't trust either.

You have to ask the obvious questions. 

 

Edited by Jabbar
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2 hours ago, Jabbar said:

Jan

Two possible explanations to your excellent questions.

First, why Saudi crow about quick recovery. My theory is that they were forced into this action simply because they were caught. U.S. Pompeo almost immediately reacted and blamed Iran. Not because he was complicit but because he believed it to be true. He didn't wait for intelligence.  Trump added his "locked and losded" faux pas.  When details started to come in I believe the U.S. may have realized they were taken in by a con. U.S. can't out MBS. Trump and Pompeo can't admit their impulsive premature reaction were wrong.  If they did Iran would receive much sympathy and support from around the world. Notice yesterday the Pentagon said two things.  That they aren't 100% sure the attack originated in Iran and that it's up to Saudi Arabia to determine that and decide on appropriate response.  Did the u.S. come down hard on MBS to cut the bull and get the oil flowing again.  Monday and Tuesday said months to repair. Wednesday it all changed. 

As for the missiles and drones found in the desert.  While the Houthis did not send these missiles they have launched missels into Saudi Arabia for many months with little accuracy.  I believe only one casualty at airport. It is well documented that Iran has smuggled rockets and drone parts into Yemen and the Houthis have made use of them.  The remnants displayed by Saudis could easily been fired by Houthis at populated southern Saudi targets over last two years.  I agree unlikely to find those parts in desert. 

Jabbar, you continue to bring up interesting points. Also your English is improving all of a sudden? But I digress. 

To the point of quick recovery, there's still the Aramco IPO to consider. Assuming they intend for that to happen, and I believe they do, the company can't appear to be "damaged" while at the same time benefiting from the increase in oil prices the "attack" caused. So they are navigating a narrow passage with nasty rocks on either side but a huge payday if they pull it off. 

I don't think Trump did them any favors. The "locked and loaded" was a sop to the neocons in govt and some of his supporters. It meant nothing otherwise, our military is ALWAYS locked and loaded. The Saudis might love for us to get in a shooting war with Iran, but Trump isn't into Shooty, Shooty with anyone. He manages messaging to get his way, while he does what he wants behind the scenes. Stating that he was going to "release" the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, when it is ALREADY being emptied in response to a prior congressional act was pure brilliance. The MARKET reacted, to the messaging not to the facts on the ground. Trump plays 3d chess also. Saudis got /some/ price run-up but not all they wanted. I'm sure Pompeo showed them videos on a thumb drive that impressed them, while making misdirection public statements like a good spook should. 

Again, as spy novels go, this has all the elements.  

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Jabbar, you continue to bring up interesting points. Also your English is improving all of a sudden? But I digress. 

To the point of quick recovery, there's still the Aramco IPO to consider. Assuming they intend for that to happen, and I believe they do, the company can't appear to be "damaged" while at the same time benefiting from the increase in oil prices the "attack" caused. So they are navigating a narrow passage with nasty rocks on either side but a huge payday if they pull it off. 

I don't think Trump did them any favors. The "locked and loaded" was a sop to the neocons in govt and some of his supporters. It meant nothing otherwise, our military is ALWAYS locked and loaded. The Saudis might love for us to get in a shooting war with Iran, but Trump isn't into Shooty, Shooty with anyone. He manages messaging to get his way, while he does what he wants behind the scenes. Stating that he was going to "release" the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, when it is ALREADY being emptied in response to a prior congressional act was pure brilliance. The MARKET reacted, to the messaging not to the facts on the ground. Trump plays 3d chess also. Saudis got /some/ price run-up but not all they wanted. I'm sure Pompeo showed them videos on a thumb drive that impressed them, while making misdirection public statements like a good spook should. 

Again, as spy novels go, this has all the elements.  

First, I think my English has always been good considering. 

As for IPO .  Understand Saudis are very desperate. This is a backward country socially and governance wise.  They do and say stupid things all the time.  They just happen to be sitting on the largest conventional oil reserves of all time.

They wanted to force an IPO out internal to Saudi Arabia in November.  Last week their oil price heading into low 50s.  Imagine the IPO valuation if all the reserves priced based on oil in 50s. They are like Trump, they act before thinking.  

Desperation moves are often full of mistakes.  

I don't know who organized the attacks.

Could be Iran

Could be Shia` Iraq militia

Could be Houthis

Could be Saudi Arabia 

You know where my bet would be placed.

OTHER TOPIC Do you think Saudis could be 100% back online if the spherical separation tanks were needed.  No. 

Edited by Jabbar

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(edited)

39 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

First, I think my English has always been good considering. 

As for IPO .  Understand Saudis are very desperate. This is a backward country socially and governance wise.  They do and say stupid things all the time.  They just happen to be sitting on the largest conventional oil reserves of all time.

They wanted to force an IPO out internal to Saudi Arabia in November.  Last week their oil price heading into low 50s.  Imagine the IPO valuation if all the reserves priced based on oil in 50s. They are like Trump, they act before thinking.  

Desperation moves are often full of mistakes.  

I don't know who organized the attacks.

Could be Iran

Could be Shia` Iraq militia

Could be Houthis

Could be Saudi Arabia 

You know where my bet would be placed.

OTHER TOPIC Do you think Saudis could be 100% back online if the spherical separation tanks were needed.  No. 

I agree with your bet, at least for the purposes of discussion. I disagree that Trump "acts" without thinking. What Trump "seems" to do is "speak" (twitter) without thinking. I'm pretty sure it's all part of his messaging. 

Lots of people are erroneously calling this facility a "refinery". It isn't, it's just a pre processing and blending plant, albeit for extremely large volumes. There are many good methods to remove sulfur from oil in a refinery, and fun fact, All the world's supply of sulfur comes from refineries today, sulfur mining is dead and buried. The oil price takes a hit based on sulfur percentages, but there's a cost to removing it too. Will the Saudis just start selling more sour crude? Or have they installed the latest Chevron tech to remove sulfur? The problem with creating mountains of sulfur at that location is you now need to Move mountains of sulfur From that facility. Much cheaper to deal with at seaborne locations where most refiners are.  I'm unsure what those ovoid tanks were for, you seem to believe they are for H2S but I'd still like a link or other source about that. 

Meanwhile we seem to know who the anchor tenants for the IPO are

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wealthy-Saudis-Are-Being-Bullied-Into-Buying-Aramco.html

Edited by Ward Smith
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(edited)

The more pictures that come out, the more support there is for lingering drones with small warheads that spread shrapnel.  Look at this picture of one of the spherical separator damage.  This is obviously not a limpet mine.  It's clear to me though that there was inside help on the attacks.  I don't think that someone outside the facility could have gotten the precision of the strikes without some inside help.  I think that MBS is hated and there are factions that want to see him fall more than they care about the Aramco IPO and in fact may wish to see it fail.  That to me is the Occam's razor answer here.  

 

 

spheroidshrapnel1.jpg

Edited by wrs

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32 minutes ago, wrs said:

The more pictures that come out, the more support there is for lingering drones with small warheads that spread shrapnel.  Look at this picture of one of the spherical separator damage.  This is obviously not a limpet mine.  It's clear to me though that there was inside help on the attacks.  I don't think that someone outside the facility could have gotten the precision of the strikes without some inside help.  I think that MBS is hated and there are factions that want to see him fall more than they care about the Aramco IPO and in fact may wish to see it fail.  That to me is the Occam's razor answer here.  

 

 

spheroidshrapnel1.jpg

Where did your picture come from? I'm curious why the writing isn't Arabic? 

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1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Where did your picture come from? I'm curious why the writing isn't Arabic? 

The writing might not be in Arabic because I heard a lot of the people working there are nor Arab, it may or not be true but that is what I heard.  I know some people that I worked with in Alberta were talking about going to work in Saudi years ago.

 A guy I talked to at work last night said don't go there because you might not come back, they lure you there by promising you big money. He said they won't pay you and will make you stay.  That is something I don't know if it is true or not, but my response was  I would even think of going there,  all it takes is one more attack and you are could be dead.  

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52 minutes ago, PINGFan said:

The writing might not be in Arabic because I heard a lot of the people working there are nor Arab, it may or not be true but that is what I heard.  I know some people that I worked with in Alberta were talking about going to work in Saudi years ago.

 A guy I talked to at work last night said don't go there because you might not come back, they lure you there by promising you big money. He said they won't pay you and will make you stay.  That is something I don't know if it is true or not, but my response was  I would even think of going there,  all it takes is one more attack and you are could be dead.  

If you are a Canadian or US citizen no problem. If you're from Taiwan or Philippines they might indeed mess with you. They're more notorious for doing this to domestic servants, who they treat as slaves. I'd make sure if I went there to have my visa stamped and be registered with my consulate, just to be safe. The poor fools in Bombay who sign up with sketchy "work coordinators" end up stuck in the country with no passport and no rights. 

As for the workers the story goes like this: A German, an American and a Saudi were having an argument. The German claimed sex was work, the American claimed sex was fun, so they asked the Saudi for the tie breaker. The Saudi said, "It must be fun, if it was work we'd hire a Filipino to do it for us". ;)

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2 hours ago, PINGFan said:

The writing might not be in Arabic because I heard a lot of the people working there are nor Arab, it may or not be true but that is what I heard.  I know some people that I worked with in Alberta were talking about going to work in Saudi years ago.

 A guy I talked to at work last night said don't go there because you might not come back, they lure you there by promising you big money. He said they won't pay you and will make you stay.  That is something I don't know if it is true or not, but my response was  I would even think of going there,  all it takes is one more attack and you are could be dead.  

Not entirely sure about this but heard through a fairly reliable source that Saudi Arabia pays all of its citizens a portion of its oil Revenue while requiring most citizens to work in the oil industry in some capacity. Some of the less wealthy work in the oil industry but many of the more well-off average citizens choose not to work but have to have someone work in their stead. Thus they hire outside people as was suggested above.

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On 9/19/2019 at 1:15 AM, DanilKa said:

Could you see time stamp on this photo? Wanted to verify side of the hole (from shadow). From aerial foto with North pointer it appear to be WWS; US and Saudi claim attack came from North. If West confirmed and there was no 90deg trajectory change - launch pad was inside the Kingdom

Off the shelf RC GPS guided auto pilots lets you input any number of GPS coordinates to fly to.  Vector means nothing. 

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26 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Off the shelf RC GPS guided auto pilots lets you input any number of GPS coordinates to fly to.  Vector means nothing. 

I believe you're talking about waypoints. You can have a lot of them, but they'd require more fuel and increase the odds of something going wrong. In this case, if you're firing from the empty quarter, sneaking the craft around to come from the Northeast would be a bad idea, IF you were allies with Iran. On the other hand, if you were looking to implicate Iran…

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1 minute ago, Ward Smith said:

I believe you're talking about waypoints. You can have a lot of them, but they'd require more fuel and increase the odds of something going wrong. In this case, if you're firing from the empty quarter, sneaking the craft around to come from the Northeast would be a bad idea, IF you were allies with Iran. On the other hand, if you were looking to implicate Iran…

A lot of waypoints?  2 extra is a lot?   An extra hour of fuel is nothing on small drones bumbling along at 100km/h-->150km/h  Talking  probably 10Liters of fuel at most. 

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52 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Off the shelf RC GPS guided auto pilots lets you input any number of GPS coordinates to fly to.  Vector means nothing. 

According to wreckage evidence presented by Saudies, number of rockets being used in the attack and those are flying ~straight 

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6 minutes ago, DanilKa said:

According to wreckage evidence presented by Saudies, number of rockets being used in the attack and those are flying ~straight 

Here is a problem.  Rocket generally means oxidizer using diffuser nozzle right?  No wings or very very short AR ~1 wings but high speed.  This means they were fired from short range.  Which means vector means nothing.  All it requires is a bit of smuggling through a vast desert and a pick up truck. 

Drone typically uses ICE engine/turbine + wings with greater range but slower speed.  Of course there are many cross overs between rocket/drone, so where one draws the line...

<<shrugs>> Both S. Yemen/S.Arabia/Iran have reasons to do this. 

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(edited)

Biggest problem for rockets that fly straight gravity. Snipers do very well to hit a target over 2000m.  Gravity causes a wingless projectile to drop at an acceleration. of 10m/sec*2.  If flight time is 2 seconds  the drop is =1/2 gt*2x or 1/2x 10x  (2*2) or 20 meters.  My MOS was 4808 heavy ordinance maintenance high end repair with a secondary MOS that included fire control for  for M107 and M110 and  M15 artillery. (that tells you how long ago I started) A sniper at 200 meters has to aim 20 meters higher than his target to hit it. You have lag time when working with a GPS and satellite that  is enough for the  rocket to plow nose first into the ground.  Gravity alone means when a missile attack flying less than 10 meters above the ground, 50% of your missiles will not hit the target and will fly into the  ground before they hit the target.  In Kosovo it was more nearly 80%.  But they have lots valleys and gorges.  Unless the rocket is flying above 100 meters and the GPS is programed for elevation as well as latitude and longitude you have a 9,999,999/10million chance of finding  a trail of crashed missile bodies along the flight path.  That still leaves the question of the accuracy of the location of the hits on each tower and no casualties .  I was a math science major in college and I cannot calculate the odds of this being true; they are that minuscule.

Edited by nsdp
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6 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Here is a problem.  Rocket generally means oxidizer using diffuser nozzle right?  No wings or very very short AR ~1 wings but high speed.  This means they were fired from short range. 

Not following your logic. What is the problem? Presented wreckage is allegedly from 1200 km range drones and 700 km rockets

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1556271/saudi-arabia

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25 minutes ago, DanilKa said:

Not following your logic. What is the problem? Presented wreckage is allegedly from 1200 km range drones and 700 km rockets

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1556271/saudi-arabia

The story perfectly illustrates why calling a rocket, a drone/missile different definitions. 

From the crashed wreckage shown, none of that was from a rocket.  A tomahawk "missile" is not a rocket it is a drone, erm missiles.  Yes it sends TV back, but is on 1 way trip to Hell.   In this case, wreckage shown shows a turbine engine.  Or more accurately, what we call drones today are indeed actual missiles If they go KABOOM and a drone is truly only a drone if it both takes off/lands, and sends signals back.  So, if we define things this way, everything fired were actually missiles and none of them were drones(UAV) or rockets. 

I would bet VERY large amount of money, NONE of those were true rockets. LACM are missiles.  GMLRS are rockets as the oxidizer is part of the propellant and does not go through a turbine engine but rather a divergent nozzle. Likewise they have short range.  But, they can be fired VERY quickly unlike a jet turbine engine.

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4 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

The story perfectly illustrates why calling a rocket, a drone/missile different definitions. 

From the crashed wreckage shown, none of that was from a rocket. 

I’m fracer, not a rocket scientist:) 

Are you saying presented wreckage doesn’t have range they say it does? 

My guess it was fired from the Empty Quarter to the West while radars were looking east and north. Quite an excursion if they did that

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