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Who Benefits From The "Iran Attacked Saudi Arabia" Narrative?

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I am not an oil trader per se but do watch the oil market for tips on trading options on oil companies...With the global ability to trade in option futures does it not make sense to buy and sell high volatility calls and puts on a scale that could move many millions of $$$ and then create a catalyst  for that movement such as last Thursdays China "Visit" cancellation, a market mentioned Chinese "overture" for trade agreements or the Saudi drone attack using the volatile dynamics of the present market...?   IS the tail wagging the dog...so to speak..?

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1 minute ago, oilslick said:

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I JUST DON'T CARE ANYMORE...

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(edited)

Join the club.

And yes, manipulation is certainly possible if you have the right friends 'in the know'.

Edited by DayTrader

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AND A LOT OF THEM... SPREAD AROUND THE GLOBE WITH A LOT OF MONEY TO USE...

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9/11 OR 9/13 ..FORGOT WHICH...BUT 4 MILLION CALLS 3 LEVELS ITM AND 3 LEVELS OTM VS 200,000 PUTS ON SAME LEVELS ITM AND OTM ON  SPY...TRUMP TWEET MADE MILLIONS PERHAPS BILLIONS FOR ???

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NOW THAT'S MANIPULATION ON A LARGE SCALE...!

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SURE WASN'T ME..I HAD PUTS...

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On 9/20/2019 at 3:18 PM, Otis11 said:

I'm not trying to blame the US - I'd actually agree with you that, overall, the US is an overwhelming source of good. That said, we do - from time to time - do some stupid things (often because people have special agenda's, other times because there are a few 'rouge' elements within the government, and yet other times simply because some leaders make bad decisions). I think this particular situation is being handled well - wait and get more information, speak carefully (though some are butchering that one), and act once we have a fully knowledge of the situation, plan to implement, and have played out some of the consequence scenarios.

With all that, I don't think this was the US (small chance it was a rouge element trying to force Trump into a war, but not terribly likely in my opinion). The reason I think it stinks isn't because of the changing story line - while that doesn't give me the warm fuzzies either, I understand chaotic situations are chaotic. The thing that gets me is that Iran doesn't seem to benefit from this. The only reason I can see them doing it is 1)They thought it would never be traced back to them (very bad assumption - they're smarter than that) or 2) They are completely desperate and trying to lash out in an attempt that something works (I honestly don't think the US Tariffs are THAT effective right now. Causing pain, yes, but the EU has been trying to work with them, as have China and Russia - this would undercut that.)

The leaders of Iran might be crazy - you could argue evil even - but they're not stupid. And if you assume they are, the Iranian people aren't, surely they can consult someone who can see more than 3 feet in front of their nose. It just doesn't make sense.

And I'm not trying to feed conspiracy theories - just trying to analyse the situation independently. The 'facts' to add up yet - but we've not been given many facts.

This, in my mind anyway, is also supported by the carefully chosen wording Trump has used in his statements on the issue. If it were cut and dry, the US would know. We have more radars, satellites, and drones focused on the middle east than anyone else has anywhere in the world - combined.

Just my 2 cents.

So, I'm no expert on explosives - 100 Kg of high explosives might leave a crater, just a dent, or exactly what we see for all I know. The point I was making was that it very well might not detonate the fuels inside. I've actually watch fires be extinguished by adding fuel. It's mind boggling, but it works.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flammability_limit#Upper_flammability_limit

How that plays into the rest of this, I'll defer 

50-100kg of PBX or Tritonal exploding inside that structure will blow it to pieces whether it was filled with water or gasoline. 

Here is an example of what 87 kg of explosive inside a Mk 82 bomb does. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3Qu7L0I10c

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On 9/21/2019 at 7:57 PM, oilslick said:

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Nice dogs....

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(edited)

23 hours ago, NickW said:

I'm not trying to blame the US - I'd actually agree with you that, overall, the US is an overwhelming source of good. That said, we do - from time to time - do some stupid things (often because people have special agenda's, other times because there are a few 'rouge' elements within the government, and yet other times simply because some leaders make bad decisions)

Special Agendas are the key words here, we can only comment on what we are allowed to hear, the rest if we try to think the scenario through is quickly filed in the conspiracy cabinet and you/we are nuts. These moves are not random domino effects and are well planned out like any risk assessment or orgasmagram. There are people who are paid to think these scenarios out and act accordingly, this is fact, a random event as we see it has already been assessed previously we would be naive to think any different.

But when Iran finally do attack the Saudis we all act surprised and then the machine takes over. No bad decisions are made by HOS they are calculated based on probabilities and assessments already undertaken and the reaction will merit the impact in the geopolitical arena based on economics.

We need to remember there are people paid well to look into "crystal balls".

Edited by James Regan

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Fact #1: The US, more than anyone, has the capability to do this sort of attack.  Fact #2: The US would have a motive; to increase the price of oil, its latest export product.  Fact #3:The "neighborhood" of the Straight of Hormuz is now a safe theater of war for the US.  Back in the 1970s, the Straights were important to the US because up to 70% of oil for US consumption passed through Hormuz.  Then, we had a very strong motive to maintain peace in the region.  Not today, very little or no oil at all passing through Hormuz comes to the US.  Fact #4: Trump is a liar of Biblical proportions; he did say something about making the US "Energy dominant."  Most of today's oil passing through the Straights is bound for Asian countries.  US oil pirates, under Captain Trumpster, would have a lot to gain by knocking out major oil producing areas of the world.

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Just an ordinary guy.  Formerly I worked for an oil-field services company in a pretty low-level position, that of assembling guns for fracking, but, nevertheless, I know things.  I write a column in the Casper Star-Tribune.  I've also published editorials, many on energy subjects, in other papers, online and in print.  A lot of these can be found by googling my name -note, the magic books are by a different Tom Gagnon; there are several of us on Google.

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1 hour ago, Tom Gagnon said:

A lot of these can be found by googling my name -note, the magic books are by a different Tom Gagnon; there are several of us on Google.

And just a reminder, I'm not a fictional character played by Kiefer Sutherland.  Or at least I hope I'm not.

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