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"Impeachment Without Conviction" - 5 Scenarios For Trump

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People often talk about impeachment as if it were identical to removing the President from office. However, this is not the case. In order to remove a President from office, the House of Representatives first has to impeach him, and then the Senate has to convict him. Note that President Clinton was impeached by the House in 1998, but he was subsequently acquitted by the Senate, so he was not removed from office. The only other President who was impeached by the House was Andrew Johnson in 1868, but he was also acquitted by the Senate. Formally, no US President has ever been removed by impeachment and conviction. When the Republican leadership informed Richard Nixon that impeachment and conviction were inevitable he resigned prematurely and it never came to a vote.

FULL ARTICLE ( Contains 1. Impeachment and Conviction, 2. Resignation, 3. The 25th Amendment (2 scenarios), 4. Republican Defence or Deflection ).

 https://www.zerohedge.com/political/impeachment-without-conviction-here-are-5-scenarios-trumps-presidency

The Democrats in the House of Representatives have decided to start impeachment proceedings against President Trump. While impeachment is possible as the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives, conviction is unlikely as long as the Republicans in the Senate continue to support their President. In this case the removal of President Trump from office is unlikely, neither by conviction nor by the 25th Amendment.

What’s more, history suggests that it will be a challenge for the Democrats to complete the process of impeachment & conviction before Election Day 2020. And then there is – at least as things stand now – virtually no chance of conviction. Consequently, it is unlikely to affect who is on the Republican ticket for the presidential elections in 2020.

However, it will set the tone for the election campaign. In fact, it could even backfire on the Democrats as it may energize Trump voters to go to the polls. Meanwhile, the impeachment theme may overshadow any political message that the Democrats might want to sell to the electorate. What’s more, Democratic candidate Joe Biden may not come out of this process unscathed. This would strengthen the position of the remaining leading candidates in the Democratic primaries, which are far more left-wing than Biden. While this strengthens the position of the left wing in the Democratic Party, it may scare away centrist voters on Election Day. Since impeachability is a political decision rather than a legal matter, history will tell whether starting an impeachment inquiry was the right decision for the Democrats.

Impeachment proceedings and the related further deterioration of the US domestic political climate add to the range of factors that are creating the uncertainty for the economic outlook that the Fed is monitoring closely. What’s more, they reduce the chance of meaningful fiscal policy legislation. Therefore, a third insurance cut before the end of the year – which is already in our baseline forecast – has become more likely. It also makes our forecast of a recession in 2020 and the Fed cutting all the way back to zero before the end of next year more likely.

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To summarize, we have identified 5 possible scenarios for Trump’s presidency. In the two most likely scenarios President Trump remains in office, at least until Election Day 2020. 

In the first scenario, the Democrats fail to impeach the President, despite their majority. This could occur if the Democratic leadership fails to persuade enough Democratic Congressmen that impeachment is either justified or smart politics. 

In the second scenario, the Democrats are successful in impeaching the President, but the Republicans prevent a conviction in the Senate. 

A less likely scenario is that the Republicans abandon their President and contribute to a 2/3 majority in the Senate to convict Trump. This would lead to his removal from office. It would take an alarming decline in voter support for Republicans to take this approach. 

Two other unlikely scenarios involve the invocation of the 25th Amendment. In this case Trump’s own Vice President and Cabinet, with the approval of Congress, decide that his removal from office is warranted, either because of irresponsible behavior or because he is hurting the reelection chances of the Republicans in Congress. So the initiative would come from President Trump’s own Republican Party, not the Democratic opposition. The ‘25th Amendment’ route offers 2 scenariosresumption of office or removal from office. The latter would require the largest decline in voter support for Trump.

Edited by DayTrader
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Trump has a base that doesn’t care if laws or the spirit of the constitution is violated. It’s just how the man has operated his entire life. He uses the carrot and the stick approach not only at home but in international affairs. In the end it will be the success and failure of his policies on a number large issues like trade wars, the economy and what happens in Iran and N Korea. The jury is still out on these issues he chose to Perdue.

Most of the noise around Trump is just politics that would happen no matter which party or person is in the White House. Just the way it is.

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Another scenario, which is sure to trigger a few people:

9e37b6febc452d5d.png.93ba0e69807658875628d9f877dfcb1a.png

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57 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Another scenario, which is sure to trigger a few people:

9e37b6febc452d5d.png.93ba0e69807658875628d9f877dfcb1a.png

When I was a small boy practicing the piano, I stopped playing but let the metronome keep swinging. Somehow I got into a discussion with my father about politics. He pointed to the metronome and said, "When that hand swings to the right, it has to swing to the left by the same degree. That's politics for you." If Mr. Trump is removed, America will elect an inept Lefty, much like Jimmy Carter following Richard Nixon. Today, that Lefty would be . . . Elizabeth Warren. That scares me to death. All Mr. Trump has to do is act presidential, work toward solving the trade war, get Rudy Guilliani back inside his room, and, most importantly, negotiate a deal with Xi that the Chinese buy our LNG, crude, soybeans and pigs. This is not rocket science. Let Ms. Warren self-destruct, fall on her own hairpin. Mr. Biden is toast. I'm worried that his son might harm himself; I would if I mortally wounded my own father. Mr. Sanders is just another old socialist who got rich. I can begin to hear that damn metronome in my head.  

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