Tom Kirkman

Shocked that U.S. did not unilaterally bomb Iran, MBS says Saudi will not Shooty Shooty Iran by themselves.

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This entire narrative stinks.  Seems to me that Trump's continued refusal to start a unilateral military attack against Iran (despite implied Saudi urging) has stumped MBS (Saudi Defense Minister), and the whole war scenario now seems to be de-escalating.

The U.S. should call back most of its troops out of the Middle East, and let the Middle East fight amongst themselves like they have for countless centuries.

Saudi crown prince warns of escalation with Iran, says he prefers political solution

(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia's crown prince warned in an interview broadcast on Sunday that oil prices could spike to "unimaginably high numbers" if the world does not come together to deter Iran, but said he would prefer a political solution to a military one.  ...

 

...  "If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests," the crown prince said. "Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes."

The crown prince, in an interview conducted on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, said he agreed with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that the Sept. 14 attacks, which damaged the world's biggest petroleum-processing facility and knocked out more than 5% of global oil supply, were an act of war by Iran.

But he said he preferred a peaceful resolution because a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would collapse the global economy.  ...

 

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The Pulitzer Prize winner Lawrence Wright has a term the KSA, "the paralyzed chicken." So many of them know better, but they see the fallout of attempted changes in the region that turned out worse. 

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I am not surprised at all. Think about it. Although KSA may have an impressive military machine on paper, with all the latest gadgets, they are not well trained and have never been tested.

To go up against the Iranian military, which has been tested in the Iran-Iraq war and many proxy wars in the area, alone, with no outside support would be a bloodbath for KSA and would lead to the fall of the house of Saud.

This being the case, a cease fire in Yemen and a call to bring Iran to heel by the international community is the only card left to play.

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50 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This being the case, a cease fire in Yemen and a call to bring Iran to heel by the international community is the only card left to play.

The Houthie actions are not Iran sponsored, and the KSA led adventures into Yemen are a stupid vanity project of MBS’s that the previous crown prince was against and the war has not gone to the 30 day plan envisioned. Now Iran has happily taken advantage of the situation, Houthies accept the help and get played a bit too, but Houthie Shiites don’t answer to Iranian religious leaders. 

We need to get Iran to play straight, and to have a firm principled foundation to stand on, we can’t be on Saudi footing and hold any moral high ground.

USA actually stopped prosecuting bombs against Al Qaeda in Yemen when KSA launched their attack, Al Qaeda controlled much of East Yemen. This stupid war has strengthened Al Qaeda. UAE has funded Al Qaeda to help fight the Houthies. 

This enemy of my enemy is my friend stuff isn’t working for us. 

Personally, I can think of no greater threat to the Iranian nut jobs in power than prosperity and interaction with the outside world. When the money to be made is through trade, you find ways not to fight. And yes, the “trust but verify“ must be in effect.

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(edited)

Well if MBS said it then we all better listen.

He's a real fountain of knowledge. 

''MBS says Saudi will not Shooty Shooty Iran by themselves''

Of course they won't, and this is assuming they know how to work anything.

Edited by DayTrader
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(edited)

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

The U.S. should call back most of its troops out of the Middle East, and let the Middle East fight amongst themselves like they have for countless centuries.

DING

This whole area of the planet has been toxic for centuries. You all have the weaponry, so crack on. Maybe learn how to use all this stuff you bought rather than drag the USA into your shit? 

Oh he agreed with Pompeo? Well hold the front page. He doesn't even have this 'bite', the threat of the USA is the bite.

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

But he said he preferred a peaceful resolution

Yeah, because they can't work any of this stuff.

But if USA gets involved, and it's the complete opposite of a peaceful resolution, he's fine with that too.

 

Edited by DayTrader
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4 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Yeah, because they can't work any of this stuff.

But their hiking club is great, here we see the boys going out for some mountain air.

 

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That's MBS's army training. Go for a stomp.

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The Saudis won’t fight; they’re too soft. 

Iran is boxed in by sanctions. 

Iran smells fear, has already telegraphed that if they can’t sell oil, then nobody gets to sell oil. 

Sooooooo, Iran is planning something big. What I do not know, but oil is their only fungible commodity and since everybody’s gotta eat, they have no option but to do something before they starve. My bet is a missile attack on the royal family, probably MbS himself. Somewhere away from the Patriot missile defense. I’d worry about polonium, what with Iran sending its partially refined yellowcake to Russia. Too many scenarios to speculate on but we’ve all seen cornered men, desperate and unafraid. Their primordial centers kick in, they lash out, dangerously and savagely. 

That’s where we are in the periscope of history: looking at a cornered schoolyard bully ready to slash his switchblade at all the soft boys with their cute hair and Maserati’s. 

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It amazes me that oil prices are still subdued, on Friday the story was oil prices dropping on easing ME tensions and reports of a possible ceasefire, a day later we find out a large force of Saudi military gets completely decimated. There is conflict (open or brewing) everywhere you look in the ME not to mention problems elsewhere in other oil producing countries. At this point we don't even know if Saudi exports will be affected by the damage caused at their plants.

I'm really wondering if oil is seriously undervalued.

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Saudi Arabia has absolutely no decision making freedom in important areas, military and economic especially.

MbS can choose what to wear and whom to jail from his extended Saudi crown family, nothing more.

Proof: They issue a lot of 3% 5 year USD bonds and 5% 20 year USD bonds,

while could issue 0.5% 5 year EUR and 2% 20 year EUR bonds.

But are only allowed USD bonds not EUR bonds

(as a gesture of goodwill US allowed them to issue 3 billion EUR bonds, on top of 60 billion USD).

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Exactly!! I found the title amusing. He dictates part of your military it seems. 

Initial Pompeo quote after shooty was ''waiting for MBS to tell us the truth on what happened'' (paraphrasing)

Brilliant. Please enlighten me Mr Factual 

 

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<facepalm>

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