Guest October 8, 2019 There have been signs of change coming since Trump rightly refused to go to war with Iran over their shooting down an unmanned U.S. drone. Starting with a major shake up of his cabinet by firing National Security Director John Bolton to his tepid response to the Houthi attack on the Saudi Aramco Abqaiq facility, Trump has sought to defuse a situation that had flown way to close to the sun and threatened to burn millions. These five tweets taken in context of the past few days, however, blow the lid off a number of narratives as well as ongoing operations. Donald J. Trump The United States was supposed to be in Syria for 30 days, that was many years ago. We stayed and got deeper and deeper into battle with no aim in sight. When I arrived in Washington, ISIS was running rampant in the area. We quickly defeated 100% of the ISIS Caliphate,..... Donald J. Trump ....including capturing thousands of ISIS fighters, mostly from Europe. But Europe did not want them back, they said you keep them USA! I said “NO, we did you a great favor and now you want us to hold them in U.S. prisons at tremendous cost. They are yours for trials.” They..... Donald J. Trump .....again said “NO,” thinking, as usual, that the U.S. is always the “sucker,” on NATO, on Trade, on everything. The Kurds fought with us, but were paid massive amounts of money and equipment to do so. They have been fighting Turkey for decades. I held off this fight for.... Donald J. Trump ....almost 3 years, but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to..... Donald J. Trump ...figure the situation out, and what they want to do with the captured ISIS fighters in their “neighborhood.” They all hate ISIS, have been enemies for years. We are 7000 miles away and will crush ISIS again if they come anywhere near us! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I posted his thread in its entirety because it’s that important. By focusing on the ISIS angle of what’s wrong with our Syria policy, Trump is keeping things simple, telling Americans what they need to know about why some of the troops in Syria are coming home.He may be playing fast and loose with the nuance here but Twitter isn’t the platform for nuance. Why do these tweets change everything? Because it signals that Trump is... Ascendant in his own White House. Realizing nothing good comes from further escalation Not getting re-elected if he’s in quagmires around the world Washing his hands of the Arab infighting Responding to the realpolitik of a vulnerable Saudi Arabia Understanding that Syria is an Obama-era mess which is now unwinnable. Telling Israel what the limits of his support is. Informing our allies the U.S. is not subsidizing their adventures anymore. Notifying the Neocons that he’s done making deals they won’t keep. Resetting the conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan as unwinnable by neocon/Israeli standards. I could add a lot more to that list. A. Lot. More. Because in context of the last few days these five tweets are a bombshell which blows open the possibilities of a much different future foreign policy from the U.S. if Trump survives this ridiculous push to impeach him. Trump didn’t do this as a response to impeachment proceedings in the House. If anything he’s daring them to impeach him before he tears down their plans. These tweets could be seen coming for weeks. The collapse of Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel undermines most of the reasons for the U.S. staying in Syria in the first place. With Netanyahu fighting for his political and social life, Trump had to see it was time to cut bait, because he’d already over fished that river. Israeli politics could be frozen for a lot longer than the next couple of weeks. In fact, no less than two articles in Haaretz this weekend confirm that Israel knows that 1) Saudi Arabia has to sue for peace with Iran and the Houthis and 2) that Trump will not come to their rescue. Netanyahu made the mistake of thinking that Trump’s love of Israel outweighed that of the U.S. That was a bad bet. Whatever Trump’s faults are, he’s a patriot. Trump was more than willing to go along with Israel’s wants if it meant the benefits to the U.S. were worth it. Trump wanted the world safe from ISIS and Iran. The former was easy, stay out of Russia’s and Iraq’s way, let them clean things up. The latter was never achievable. Because it was always going to come down to war or no war. Netanyahu et.al. always thought they could manipulate Trump the Rube into a war on their behalf when the time came. They didn’t. They’re pissed. They are coming after him. And he’s bailing on them for the good of the U.S. and, frankly, the world. Iran/Russia/China always knew where the bluff would be called. They played the game out to the bitter end. And Trump walked away from the Abyss, smartly. There is no other policy at this point than reversing course and letting the instigators, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Europe and former U.S. administrations figure it out for themselves. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Trump is not neutered by this impeachment, if anything it is emboldening him. Why? Because he has nothing to lose and everything to gain here. Playing the impeachment card was the wrong move. It removed all of Trump’s shackles. It said there was no more room for deals. Now, it’s war. And that makes things a lot simpler. The truth is the attacks in Saudi Arabia by the Houthis now have people overtly wondering if the House of Saud will last another year. It’s not likely. And Trump realizes, as proven by these five tweets, that U.S. presence there precludes solving the region’s problems. We are the reason these people who hate each other don’t work out their differences. Iran and the Houthis will step up their game against the Saudis unless they back down. Trump pulling out of Syria makes it clear he doesn’t have their backs anymore. The message is clear, “Get started folks.” The U.S./Saudi/Israeli alliance looks pretty pitiful from a realpolitik perspective right now. I’ve been consistent in my criticism of Trump’s foreign policy because this was always going to be the outcome. The U.S. was always going to be forced to retreat and leave our ‘allies’ in the lurch. Maintaining an untenable presence in Syria, pushing Iran, Iraq and Lebanon financially to their breaking point, and doubling down on support of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after l’affair Kashoggi and the War in Yemen while upping sanctions on Russia and starting a trade war with China were all mistakes. They would do nothing but unite the U.S.’s opposition in defiance to fight an asymmetric, hybrid war of attrition. They would have no other choice. Trump named the names of those that need to sort the Middle East out, they are all there, except Israel. But this is all about Israel. And their apologists wasted zero time taking to the airwaves and the Twitterverse to howl at the unfairness of it all. Ye gods even Nikki Haley came out from behind the counter at Waffle House to complain about it. They know that if Trump survives the next few weeks Israel will be the policy-takers here not the policy-makers. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Given these five tweets and the implications for them among the people most exposed to what comes next, what I said recently about the coup against him being real is looking prophetic now. The question is still whether there are around fifteen people in the Senate that can be convinced to get rid of him. The first five are already signed up – Graham, Rubio, Romney, Collins, Murkowski. If Trump is expecting to be impeached and convicted he certainly isn’t acting like it. As I said over the weekend, he’s too much of a street-fighter and troll to go quietly. Moreover, he wouldn’t have Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Greece setting up alternate supply lines to the Balkans preparing for a post-Turkey NATO if he wasn’t in charge. Regardless of whether he survives this or not Donald Trump just threw down a gauntlet that finally blows open the hypocrisy of U.S. Middle East policy. And I don’t think the genie goes back in this bottle ... (Edited) FULL ARTICLE - https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-are-these-five-tweets-change-world Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Marcin + 519 MS October 8, 2019 @DayTrader These tweets are just campaign tweets before 2020 election. Please guys you are too intelligent to not understand this and peddle this nonsense 1. No exit from Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia. I believe in "exit" that means having not for example: 7000 soldiers but instead 2000 "military advisors" and 5000 "military contractors". US will never leave these countries. These are strategic positions around hydrocarbons rich countries taken for the next 50 years. And Trump knows this, the same as governments of other countries especially occupied countries, I mean "guest countries". But he has electorate to appease, you know 2020 election. 2. No war before 2020 election, because caskets are not good for winning. That is all you need to memorize and remember. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 October 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, Marcin said: That is all you need to memorize and remember. Nope. https://community.oilprice.com/topic/7977-enough-of-endless-war/#comment-70373 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Douglas Buckland + 6,308 October 8, 2019 Alot of this ‘bailing out of Syria’ stuff seems to be blown out of proportion if the information in a Malaysian newspaper today was accurate. The paper said the only 50 special forces personnel were in Syria and were being withdrawn prior to the Turkish offensive. Nothing has ever been said about throwing the autonomous Kurdish region, capitol in Erbil, to the wolves. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Douglas Buckland + 6,308 October 8, 2019 The rest of the article posted by DT makes perfect sense! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 8, 2019 (edited) On 10/8/2019 at 2:06 PM, Douglas Buckland said: The rest of the article posted by DT makes perfect sense! I just post stuff I think may be of interest. I love that people have opinions on article text as if I wrote it. Maybe I need to put disclaimers on everything that 'these words do not necessarily reflect DT's views 100%' Or maybe if people could just realise I'm not the journalist, that would be good too. Surely my username is a giveaway but guess not. Edited October 13, 2019 by Guest Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 8, 2019 https://www.zerohedge.com/political/buchanan-trump-last-ending-our-endless-wars Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 9, 2019 If he actually cuts back on at least some war it will make it on the very short list of things trump has done that I like. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 9, 2019 (edited) On 10/9/2019 at 2:41 AM, Enthalpic said: trump has done that I like. I thought that would be it completely. You have a LIST ??! Edited October 11, 2019 by Guest Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakridge + 122 JA October 10, 2019 Yeah man, I'd love to hear the list! As an American I love the tax cuts, the low unemployment, the regulation cutting that freed up business to boost the economy and a few other things. www.magapill.com 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 10, 2019 (edited) On 10/11/2019 at 12:10 AM, Jakridge said: I'd love to hear the list! I loved the list of 300 things I found in seconds when a guy said he couldn't name 1 thing. Then when I showed him the 300 he said ''ah yeah, I saw that article''. This is the level we are dealing with here. The TDS at worrying levels. This place is hilarious. Edited October 14, 2019 by Guest Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 Suffice it to say, like it or not, in a couple of years Trump has done more for our country than the last POTUS did in all wasted eight years combined. The Demo's just drove us into the ground for almost a decade!! Especially those of us in the manufacturing sector.....Now we need to get rid of the ACA so we can get our insurance(hopefully) to go back down to reasonable levels.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zhong Lu + 845 October 14, 2019 Almost everything he's done are executive actions, which means the next president can cancel it all with a wave of his or her pen. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 14, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, SERWIN said: Suffice it to say, like it or not, in a couple of years trump has done more for our country than the last POTUS did in all wasted eight years combined. The Demo's just drove us into the ground for almost a decade!! Especially those of us in the manufacturing sector.....Now we need to get rid of the ACA so we can get our insurance(hopefully) to go back down to reasonable levels.... What exactly has directly improved in your life since trump? Got a raise, better job? Probably nothing. At least some people got healthcare under the Dems Edited October 14, 2019 by Enthalpic Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 I work in Manufacturing, did you read the part about "Especially those of us in the manufacturing sector" I was driving truck to make ends meet, and if you want to talk about a sometimes miserable existence, try being away from home for 17 weeks straight, living and sleeping in a sleeper that is literally smaller than my bedroom closet, and showering in public showers that you have to PAY for, and some of them are disgusting....So yeah, I got to go back to work in the oilfield, sorta()remember all the restrictions on the oilfield in the Odumba era). I get to stay home at night in my own bed. I get to eat real food, not the crap at the truck stops. I get to see my doctor when I need, not some moron in a truck stop parking lot that doesn't know medicine from a hole in the wall. So yeah, I can say it's been a LOT better than the last moron that was POTUS. Don't you live in GB? Or somewhere not America? What the hell do YOU know about what is happening over here? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 14, 2019 (edited) 23 minutes ago, SERWIN said: I work in Manufacturing, did you read the part about "Especially those of us in the manufacturing sector" I was driving truck to make ends meet, and if you want to talk about a sometimes miserable existence, try being away from home for 17 weeks straight, living and sleeping in a sleeper that is literally smaller than my bedroom closet, and showering in public showers that you have to PAY for, and some of them are disgusting....So yeah, I got to go back to work in the oilfield, sorta()remember all the restrictions on the oilfield in the Obama era). I get to stay home at night in my own bed. I get to eat real food, not the crap at the truck stops. I get to see my doctor when I need, not some moron in a truck stop parking lot that doesn't know medicine from a hole in the wall. So yeah, I can say it's been a LOT better than the last moron that was POTUS. Don't you live in GB? Or somewhere not America? What the hell do YOU know about what is happening over here? It was a question, not a statement. Pro tip: look for a question mark at the end of sentences before you get snappy. What exactly did trump do to get you that job, a policy change or something, or was it just coincidence? What date did you start that job? How many years did you have an oilfield job under the Dems? Most of them? Edited October 14, 2019 by Enthalpic Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 14, 2019 (edited) lol always the small t , but Dems gets a capital Edited October 14, 2019 by Guest Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Enthalpic said: It was a question, not a statement. Pro tip: look for a question mark at the end of sentences before you get snappy. What exactly did trump do to get you that job, a policy change or something, or was it just coincidence? What date did you start that job? How many years did you have an oilfield job under the Dems? Most of them? opening up restrictions on oil did do something for me, directly. And yes, under the Dems and the Reps I worked in the oilfield sector, making instruments for the downhole strings. But under the Dems, I got laid off for the first time in 25 years, ever, and twice in the same year... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, DayTrader said: lol always the small t , but Dems gets a capital Foreigners.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest October 14, 2019 Haha no he makes a point of it, I find it amusing. He hates Trump so much he doesn't even get a capital T Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, SERWIN said: Foreigners.... I'm glad you will refrain form commenting on China or the middle east from now on... What could you possibly know about them! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enthalpic + 1,496 October 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, DayTrader said: Haha no he makes a point of it, I find it amusing. He hates Trump so much he doesn't even get a capital T It's not hate, it's lack of respect. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 1 hour ago, Enthalpic said: I'm glad you will refrain form commenting on China or the middle east from now on... What could you possibly know about them! The only thing I know about China is that it is a hugely UNFAIR deal that has been screwing us for DECADES. And a lot of the crap that comes over here is just that....CRAP. Just ends up in a landfill sooner than later. I just want us to quit dealing with them, we can make a lot of that junk from over there here and hopefully do a better job at it, and employ Americans at the same time. That kind of stuff was where someone started working in manufacturing and then after learning something worthwhile, then they moved up to a better paying job that required a better skill than just off the street. And the M.E., just a constant backstabbing bunch of crap. When we are shelling out the money they love us, and behind our backs sticking that knife in deep. And by the way, I happen to LIKE Trump, he is probably the BEST POLITICIAN EVER TO GRACE THE WHITE HOUSE for at last 40 years!!!! For once we got a POTUS that is going to do what is right for US, not be worried what the Brits think, or what the Chinese think, or what the M.E. thinks, or even what the ILLEGALS think. Its nice to have a POTUS stand up for us instead of THEM. And as far as commenting on other countries, the only thing I usually have anything to say is how we have been at a disadvantage through the CRAPPY trade deals that have been slapping us in the face for so many years now. It's time we got on the good end of a deal for once, and Trump is trying to do that. And you don't live here so it doesn't matter what you think about him. He is also talking about making the countries that we provide protection for with military bases and such PAY for the value of what they are getting. Personally I would just close up shop and vacate. Leave Germany sitting alone and leave the M.E. to their own devices. Let them figure out what it takes to stand alone and defend themselves. It would save us a lot money. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SERWIN + 749 SE October 14, 2019 GLORY BE TO THE MAN WITH THE TWEETS!!!! BEST POLITICIAN ON THE FACE OF THE PLANET RIGHT NOW!!!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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