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January Brexit Extension Increases Chance Of No Deal

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Donald Tusk and the Remainers seek a Jan 31 extension. France wants a shorter extension. Jan 31 is counterproductive. In the misguided belief that extension after extension increases the chance of remaining, the alleged "Stop No Deal" crowd actually increase the odds of No Deal.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk

2019-10-24_5-22-10.jpg

I have made that case before, and Eurintelligence (a Remain supporter), laid out a point-by-point scenario this morning. 

Long Delay Scenario

  • European Council extends for three months;
  • UK holds elections;
  • Tories win with a small majority;
  • Johnson brings back the bill but falls short of a majority after a rebellion among hard-line eurosceptics;
  • the House of Commons has no majority this time for Letwin/Benn style wrecking tactics.
  • UK crashes out without a deal on January 31.

Eurointeligence Comments 

This is not a prediction, only one of many scenarios. But, from today’s perspective, it is more plausible than a second referendum or a customs union. We don’t think the opposition would help Johnson. After the next election, both Labour and the LibDems will compete for the pro-EU votes. The die-hard eurosceptics in the Tory party may feel less of a need to compromise if they believe their no-deal nirvana is possibleWe don’t think that Brussels has really thought this through. If the goal is to avoid a no-deal Brexit, Macron’s strategy is a more promising route: put pressure on UK MPs to pass the bill by keeping the extension short. A three-month extension would bring back the uncertainty

Understanding the Setup

I agree on all but bullet point 3: "Tories win with a small majority."

A "small" majority most likely but not necessarily results in Johnson's deal.

It's the large and especially moderate-sized wins that are the problems. 

My Scenario

  1. Assume having won the election Johnson is at least somewhat ambivalent between No Deal and his deal.

  2. Assume a Tory majority of 20 or so, not counting DUP.

  3. Assume 15 of the Tories are still closet remainers, customs union backers, or No Deal advocates.

  4. Assume 30 ERG and Hard Brexit lovers still prefer No Deal.

If the Hard Brexit supporters hold support and DUP holds support, there is no majority for anything but No Deal. This is not at all far-fetched. Moreover, if Johnson was just faking wanting a deal to get re-elected, then even a small majority might suffice if the closet Remainers, customs union backers, and No Deal advocates are mostly outed from the Tory Party. Thus, any Tory win is more likely than now to result in No Deal. The hard-core No Deal advocates only went along with Johnson to ensure a "reasonable deal" they could live with. If they get a chance, and any Tory win with the right conditions (and there are numerous right conditions) may result in No Deal. 

Heads Johnson Wins, Tails Johnson Wins

Two days ago, I commented Brexit Coin Toss: Heads Johnson Wins, Tails Johnson Wins . Flip a Coin. Remainers have a choice. They can force elections and lose or they can pass the Johnson's deal and lose. There is no majority for another referendum. 

No Deal Liars Exposed  

Labour MPs secretly think that all Leavers are numbskulls. They believed that if they could force a delay in Brexit, the working-class Eurosceptic thickoes would blame Boris. Now, that strategy lies in tatters — Daniel Hannan (@DanielJHannan) October 23, 2019  

Johnson's Offer

Expect Johnson To Withdraw Offer

Johnson offered an amendment that would have guaranteed not "crashing out" with a WTO agreement a year from now. That still was not enough for the "Stop No Deal" liars. In the event of election or even a short extension request, Johnson can safely withdraw that offer because the clock has nearly run out. 

Likely Outcome

Eurointelligence commented "The two most likely scenarios are that Johnson pulls the bill and goes for early elections, or a short extension to allow passage of the bill under a more relaxed timetable". I agree, while pointing out this Eurointelligence view, also the same as mine, and as described above: "We argue that the risk of a no-deal Brexit would increase with a three-month extension". In regards to that position, it's not just a small Tory victory that increases the chances of No Deal, but rather any Tory victory. 

Playing With Fire

If needed to win, Johnson can easily change his mind and court the Brexit Party while the Liberal Democrats and Labour remain seriously split. The polls indicate a victory outright, without such a deal. 

Stop No Deal Makeup

  1. Most of the "Stop No Deal" crowd are nothing but liars who want to outright remain.

  2. The rest are simply fools.

Johnson offered a guaranteed way to prevent No Deal! The alleged "Stop No Deal" crowd refused the offer, even with an amendment that would prevent a WTO settlement. Both groups are seriously playing with fire. Their antics dramatically increase the odds of No Deal.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/january-brexit-extension-increases-chance-no-deal

Note - DT is not a journalist. The username is the clue.

If you don't like my threads then it is rather easy to use the 'ignore user' feature, rather than follow me round like a dog, state that it's bad journalism, then move on to more of my threads, read them in their entirety too, and do it again and again. I find this behaviour rather odd, dare I say bordering on moronic. Just sayin'

Cheers, DT. 

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(edited)

The real risk for England is that a no-deal crashout is already more likely than not.  The reason is that the bureaucrats and politicians inside the Deep State of the EU cannot risk having England depart without taking a hit.  Otherwise, other countries that are hurt by both EU command-style political architecture and the Euro dominated by Germany will be tempted to leave and will cause disintegration  of the entire EU structure.  So expect a hard line from the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. 

The big problem for the UK (other than the issue of the Irish Internal Border) is that the EU has all these special standards for goods traded inside the EU, to which imports must conform.  That means there will be two standards: one for goods going to the EU, and one for everything else. Every  exported good will need special certification that it meets a myriad of EU standards.  And those goods will inevitably end up inspected by EU customs inspectors at ports of entry.  That will massively hinder UK exports to the EU. 

Meanwhile, back on the magnificent island, there are these guys that live in the glories of Empire past  (including our dear correspondent Day Trader).  The idea that the Empire now consists of Gibraltar and the Falkland Islands and Diego Garcia and not much else, does not dissuade them.  If you say, "Screw the Europeans and their French wines," then that's fine, but remember that the days of exporting to India and Rhodesia simply because there are British troops garrisoned there who control the place at gunpoint, hey those days are over, so the guaranteed market for British goods is just not there; the UK has to compete, and that is the way it is.  

A customs union is just not as simple as it sounds.  I see lots of problems ahead.  And the idea that all is saved by a special arrangement with the US, well, that is not so certain either, as the Russians and the Canadians have found out to their chagrin. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
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Or the UK can remain as a fiefdom of the EU, subject to the whims of Brussels.

Why is it China can apparently create new ‘trade routes’ via mechanisms such as the BRI, but the UK, for some reason, is incapable of creating trade with any entity except the EU?

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

but the UK, for some reason, is incapable of creating trade with any entity except the EU?

I agree, it's a big old world out there. I get so bored of the implication that the EU is the be all and end all. You guys think this, and know this, but imagine hearing this shite for 3 years. 

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

And the idea that all is saved by a special arrangement with the US, well, that is not so certain either

Agreed, I don't think anyone here thinks that will save the day in any sense, but Trump's support of us leaving is a nice bonus certainly. 

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Meanwhile, back on the magnificent island, there are these guys that live in the glories of Empire past  (including our dear correspondent Day Trader)

See trolls, Jan knows the score... however ...

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

the days of exporting to India and Rhodesia

I don't live in the glories of the past so much that I still call it Rhodesia. Showing your age Jan haha  ;) 

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I see lots of problems ahead

Agreed. I also see them in staying. 

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The real risk for England

Bonus point Jan for this being the opener. We are pretty damn amazing let's face it.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I think unless you're in the UK you can't come close to knowing how we have heard nothing but negatives and fearmongering shite now for 3 years. 3 years of it. Think about that. Politicians and press doing all they can to delay it, to worry the people, to outright lie, or to stop it altogether. Just the terms 'hard brexit' and 'crashout Brexit', which even Jan 'the legend' said, came out of nowhere in our press. Since day 1 just the word Brexit has had a negative connetation. I'm so bored of it and prefer Farage's 'clean break Brexit'. We even now have a party whose main policy is to cancel Brexit altogether. They are called Liberal Democrats. Think about that a sec. Liberal. Democrats. Just ignore 17M people. Democrats. You couldn't write this stuff.

We had a vote and Leave won. I do not understand the mentality of people who involved themselves in a vote and then bitch about the result for 3 years when it is not the one they wished. Does this not make the vote and the process itself rather pointless to these idiots? 

I agree there will be issues ahead and we will have to compete. I don't think anyone has a problem with this, seeing as we are an amazing, literally warrior race. Well, we used to be. This is one of the most annoying factors to me. The idea of 'oh how can you possibly survive without us after 40 years?', when considering our history. Because there will be challenges is no reason to just give up, generally in life.

This mentality seems to be rampant, considering Brexit and the US with China. We are both striving for something and thinking of the future but seem to get nothing but abuse for it. All anyone mentions is 'well what about this?', 'ooh Trump still hasn't done this', 'well UK will suffer because of this'. Honestly it's so dull. Do people here understand the idea of the bigger picture? Or is it preferable to let China and Brussels just do what they like for a few more decades? Let's see how that works out.

Maybe it's that 'never give up' attitude that, ya know, defeated certain people 100 and 75 years ago? I just wish people had a little more faith in their own country and grew a pair. We are amazing, let's get on with it.

Ponder this by the way. Why is immigration seemingly nowadays tied to racism? Since when was it a bad thing to love your country? Why does no one in Europe seem happy we chose to leave? Why is every single thing you see about Brexit negative? Why does no one see the possibilities or look forward to the future? Why do Europeans only ever suggest 'you will regret it' and just mention possible negatives of it? Why does no one in Europe even remotely suggest 'good luck'? Think about these questions, seriously.

I'm guessing it's not out of concern for our future.

Edited by DayTrader
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19 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Maybe it's that 'never give up' attitude that, ya know, defeated certain people 100 and 70 years ago? I just wish people had a little more faith in their own country and grew a pair. We are amazing, let's get on with it.

Ponder this by the way. Why is immigration seemingly nowadays tied to racism? Since when was it a bad thing to love your country? Why does no one in Europe seem happy we chose to leave? Why is every single thing you see about Brexit negative? Why does no one see the possibilities or look forward to the future? Why do Europeans only ever suggest 'you will regret it' and just mention possible negatives of it? Think about these questions, seriously.

Perfectly put DT!

As you know I am a "remoaner" but 3 years of uncertainty due to political games is hurting the country far more than maybe 2-3 years of financial pain when we leave.

I believe in democracy, so I lost, I'm over it! Lets stop messing around and LEAVE!

And yes we are an amazingly resourceful + innovative nation and will continue to be long after Brexit is finally done.

Jo Swinson and her cronies in the Lib Dems should be locked up by the way, disgraceful!

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(edited)

Thanks.

And yep. Paddy Ashdown still turning in his grave.

Edited by DayTrader

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Yep!

Good old Paddy Pantsdown

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8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

but remember that the days of exporting to India and Rhodesia simply because there are British troops garrisoned there who control the place at gunpoint, hey those days are over, so the guaranteed market for British goods is just not there; the UK has to compete, and that is the way it is.  

^Bingo. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, DayTrader said:

Why does no one in Europe even remotely suggest 'good luck'? Think about these questions, seriously.

Easy. Because so many lies are espoused about the EU. EU gets blamed for all sorts of things that the EU does not deserve the blame for. Chicken and egg maybe. I don't know. 

You want to stand up to China? Imagine if you could the EU to stand up to China. 

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen

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(edited)

Bingo? Yeah I'm heartbroken we aren't still in 'Rhodesia' lol.

''Easy ... I don't know''.  You answered one question and it was that one, and said the answer is 'easy', then ended it with 'I don't know'. Just proving my whole last paragraph correct. The negativity that we voted Leave. Jeez. I don't get it. If you love the EU so much, crack on. What's the problem?

By the way, who was it that said ''there is a special place reserved in hell for people that voted to leave'' ?? Does that sound to you like certain people in the EU are happy about it?

How dare we have an opinion of the EU in return though. I didn't realise it was the new China.

 

Edited by DayTrader
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9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

The real risk for England is that a no-deal crashout is already more likely than not.  The reason is that the bureaucrats and politicians inside the Deep State of the EU cannot risk having England depart without taking a hit.  Otherwise, other countries that are hurt by both EU command-style political architecture and the Euro dominated by Germany will be tempted to leave and will cause disintegration  of the entire EU structure.  So expect a hard line from the EU bureaucracy in Brussels. 

The big problem for the UK (other than the issue of the Irish Internal Border) is that the EU has all these special standards for goods traded inside the EU, to which imports must conform.  That means there will be two standards: one for goods going to the EU, and one for everything else. Every  exported good will need special certification that it meets a myriad of EU standards.  And those goods will inevitably end up inspected by EU customs inspectors at ports of entry.  That will massively hinder UK exports to the EU. 

 

I agre with your first paragraph but not sure about the secon it will be self destructive for all to impose all of that, Canada has a free trade deal with the EU and as far as I know they are not forced to do all of that.

It is important to remember that Germany relies on exports for 50% of it's GDP. It's a very vulnerable country and is already slipping into recession.

The UK is a big importer of German goods especially cars, if we were forced into playing tarrif games we'd wreck their economy over night.

I think the hard line from Brussels is just going to expose them as weak bullies in the long run and yes I do think it will eventually break up as individual countries start to put their own interests first.

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Just now, El Nikko said:

yes I do think it will eventually break up as individual countries start to put their own interests first.

Yes but that's Jan's point I think, they have now seen the shitstorm that Brexit has become and it would delay anyone even putting a vote to their people, let alone acting on it 

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Can you imagine the shitstorm if the UK actually split, if we gave NI to the Irish or let them go alone like the IOM, and how long would Scotland survive? The UK has lost a lot of morale fibre since we joined the EU, we became diluted, we bridged the moat with the Chunnel. Has anyone been to Luton and had a good look around. If we don't do something quickly we will lose a part of history, I'm right wing but not a faschist (great statement), but i am fully behind protecting all heritages, we get up in arms when the aboriginals from Oz and red Indians are threatened well an Englishman is in the same boat im afraid.

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48 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Bingo?

When the UK goes out on the world market to compete they need to compete - i.e. be cheaper. Plus, they are going up against established supply chains. 

50 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

''Easy ... I don't know''.  You answered one question and it was that one, and said the answer is 'easy', then ended it with 'I don't know'

What I meant was. Maybe the EU is negative because politicians give the EU the blame for things the EU have nothing to with. I would get pissed too... 

51 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

If you love the EU so much, crack on. 

I am. 

52 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

What's the problem?

I don't talk shit about the UK. I try to stay factual. 

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(edited)

14 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

Yes but that's Jan's point I think, they have now seen the shitstorm that Brexit has become and it would delay anyone even putting a vote to their people, let alone acting on it 

Yes I do agree with Jan on that and have been saying it for years, I just don't think the EU will survive without serious reform.

From a geopolitical standpoint the EU doesn't really work, why would Poland for example care about what happens in Greece or Italy, they are different countries with different geopolitical issues.

The EU (and countries which allowed it to happen) made a huge mistake by turning into a huge beurocratic beast. The Euro has been a complete disaster for many countries, especially countries like Greece which could not devalue it's currency to become competative after the Euro crisis (are we even sure that is over?).  Germany has however benefited from the Euro, much of it's exports were being sold to other Euro countries, German goods are artificially cheap.

It's a mess alright but we warned about forming a single currency and they didn't listen.

Edited by El Nikko
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DING

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55 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

By the way, who was it that said ''there is a special place reserved in hell for people that voted to leave'' ?? Does that sound to you like certain people in the EU are happy about it?

the real qoute was special place in hell for brexiteers without a plan https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47143135

I don't want or have the time for it but I am sure I can find some worse statements from the likes of Farage that pre date that one. 

Be fair, pls. That's all I ask. 

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(edited)

6 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

Yes I do agree with Jan on that and have been saying it for years, I just don't think the EU will survive without serious reform.

From a geopolitical standpoint the EU doesn't really work, why would Poland for example care about what happens in Greece or Italy, they are different countries with different geopolitical issues.

The EU (and countries which allowed it to happen) made a huge mistake by turning into a huge beurocratic beast. The Euro has been a complete disaster for many countries, especially countries like Greece which could not devalue it's currency to become competative after the Euro crisis (are we even sure that is over?).  Germany has however benefited from the Euro, much of it's exports were being sold to other Euro countries, German goods are artificially cheap.

It's a mess alright but we warned about forming a single currency and they didn't listen.

There was good reason why the UK never took the Euro, and we stayed with the Pound, did we really ever believe it was going to last, I think the answer is right there, as we would have accepted a Euro, try going anywhere in the UK with a Euro, may as well be a Dirahm, or a Rupee (its probably accepted in some areas.).

Edited by James Regan
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4 minutes ago, El Nikko said:

From a geopolitical standpoint the EU doesn't really work, why would Poland for example care about what happens in Greece or Italy, they are different countries with different geopolitical issues.

The EU (and countries which allowed it to happen) made a huge mistake by turning into a huge beurocratic beast. The Euro has been a complete disaster for many countries, especially countries like Greece which could not devalue it's currency to become competative after the Euro crisis (are we even sure that is over?).  Germany has however benefited from the Euro, much of it's exports were being sold to other Euro countries, German goods are artificially cheap.

It's a mess alright but we warned about forming a single currency and they didn't listen.

I somewhat agree. I just want to move past brexit and fix the mess. Agree that the euro in it's current state does not make much sense. 

We can then compare notes on what was rigth. 

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(edited)

4 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

the real qoute was special place in hell for brexiteers without a plan

Oh that's ok then, as long as he mentioned burning in hell in a nice way LOL

I'll be fair when you don't say stuff like ''the likes of Farage'', how's that?  ;) 

Edited by DayTrader

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1 minute ago, James Regan said:

try going anywhere in the UK with a Euro, may as well be a Dirahm, or a Rupee is probably accepted in some areas.

Gold. Absolute gold. 

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(edited)

5 minutes ago, DayTrader said:

I'll be fair when you don't say stuff like ''the likes of Farage'', how's that?  ;) 

So Farage (and others, not just brits) can talk all sorts of distorted truths about EU, but I can't say "the likes of Farage"... 

I think I need to coin a new phrase : ehh... but EU bad ... errr Juncker bad

Edited by Rasmus Jorgensen
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You're learning. You're not a Power User for nothing.

And yes, EU bad haha  :)  

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I think IMHO that the UK is hiding behind trade deals etc, the vote has become a popular vote based on demographics and race, the Leavers are mostly Baby Boomers and GenX who have seen the UK change drastically, I don't think its wrong to say that Brexit is a vehicle for Nationalism. It may be ignorance but its a fact, many Britains feel so strongly and they would like the country back. This is not a new concept and is happening all around us as we speak. 

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Sure, a ‘hard’ exit would be painful for awhile. I think this is to be expected when you are weaning off the EU teat - so what! At the end of the day Britain would establish other markets, hopefully get back in the manufacturing game, sort out their own immigration and labor issues...and become Great Britain again.

Why do people keep bringing up the ‘pain’? Anything worthwhile is going to involve a certain amount of ‘pain’. Take the US-China ‘trade war’ for example. Everyone said the Yanks couldn’t possibly survive without all the cheap Chinese goods that were flooding the country. I have not seen any real weeping & gnashing of teeth recently. Yes, it costs some cash to wean the American public off of the Chinese teat, but at the end of the day it will be worth it.

I suppose, in my mind, the question is, “How much is having your own country and identity back worth?”

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