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Why Saudi is lying on their current production levels after the attacks

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The attack would have been a great way for the Saudis to singlehandedly "rebalance" the global supply and price of crude oil. They were too nervous about their IPO and perceptions of vulnerability to take advantage of it. Now, with IMO 2020 low-sulfur caps coming in two months, combined with Saudi reliance on sour oil, they're in a pickle. In my opinion, traders have largely yawned at what would have been, in earlier times, a dispositive moment in oil history: Holy Smokes, someone with some cheap drones put long-distance missiles through a bunch of hydrogen sulfide separators in the world's largest sour oil separation plant! But no, we had a one-day rally and shrugged it off. Say what you will about the superb qualities of light, sweet crude coming from the shale fields but all of the old refineries (and they're nearly all old) in the US and other countries were long-ago outfitted to manage a "Goldilocks" feedstock--Saudi or Canadian sour plus domestic sweet to make it just right for the refinery to handle the blended through-feed. That separator facility in Abqaiq took very sour oil (it's probably getting sourer as the wells decline) and made it "just right" for the refiners to use--the same way they've been doing it for decades. As other posts have established, all those separators were built on site, also decades ago, and they're not so easily repaired. I have a strong suspicion that many refineries scattered around the world--those not strong enough to protest--are receiving sour feedstock from the Saudis, bypassing the separation facility as much as possible. There are a few US military personnel that know the truth, and they're not telling for national security reasons. Now that the Aramco IPO has largely been rejected by Wall Street bankers unable to meet the same target dollar value as the Saudis, along with the demand that the whole oil world rethink blending for the massive maritime shipping industry, this is an ideal time for the long-awaited "rebalance" that only the Saudis can bring about. It needs to be so aggressive that it takes the world's breath away, but then again, that's probably why the US put a handful of troops over there--to make sure they're not rigging the system. Imagine that! 

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6 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

In my opinion, traders have largely yawned at what would have been, in earlier times, a dispositive moment in oil history: Holy Smokes, someone with some cheap drones put long-distance missiles through a bunch of hydrogen sulfide separators in the world's largest sour oil separation plant! But no, we had a one-day rally and shrugged it off.

Perfect

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