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James Regan

Brasil to join OPEC, bad move?

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(edited)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Brazil-Joining-OPEC-Would-Be-A-Massive-Mistake.html

Umm not a good time to blurt this out.

Repsol are not bidding next round due to the high royalty prices, but the royalties are based on the appraisals done by Petrobras, there is no deal surer at the moment than the Brasilian Pre-Salt play.

There is no doubt that the attention will be on Brasil for the next few years.

The industry needs a deepwater player, and Brasil is that player, watch this space....

Edited by James Regan

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Don’t forget the Guyana/Suriname play!

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21 minutes ago, James Regan said:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Brazil-Joining-OPEC-Would-Be-A-Massive-Mistake.html

Umm not a good time to blurt this out.

Repsol are not bidding next round due to the high royalty prices, but the royalties are based on the appraisals done by Petrobras, there is no deal surer at the moment than the Brasilian Pre-Salt play.

There is no doubt that the attention will be on Brasil for the next few years.

The industry needs a deepwater player, and Brasil is that player, watch this space....

Think of all those trips to the OPEC meetings, 1st class flights, 5 star hotels, top notch hookers......

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On 10/31/2019 at 9:16 AM, NickW said:

top notch hookers......

You can actually use this as a good guide on how the industry is doing in most parts of the world, Volume and Quality of the product is a good KPI, however forget this KPI if referring to LTO, the volume is there but the quality is awful, very low grade. 😉

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Apparently, Repsol, BP, Total and Exxon have all expressed a "pass" on the transfer of rights for the Buzios pre-salt. It's 50 billion, after all, which is pricey in today's world--even for what seems like a sure thing. 

I suspect this points to just how goosey oil companies have become over the green energy movement: they'd rather stick to short-term projects, even if they're not nearly as profitable in the long run (supposing, of course, that there is a long run).

I'm sure Russia is looking. Brazil isn't Venezuela, but currently all of Venezuela's oil income goes to pay the debt load to Rosneft. The US is somewhat hobbled because if Venezuela becomes unable to pay it, then Rosneft could potentially lay claim to the Citgo refineries (in the US), of which Venezuela owns 49.9%. That would be blocked by the CFIUS. bit still, what a mess: a country that possesses the world's largest oil reserves and yet is importing petroleum products. 

China is exceptionally worried about its oil supply. Russia and China have been teaming up lately (like the LNG pipeline down Pakistan in exchange for sharing the port at the tip of Pakistan, a gateway to the Arabian Sea), and like the One Belt/One Road Initiative. Might they team up in a bid for the Buzios? I don't know the details like you gentlemen probably do, but it's my impression that the four plats that make up the Buzios offshore are to be sold together. No?

 

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(edited)

17 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I'm sure Russia is looking. Brazil isn't Venezuela, but currently all of Venezuela's oil income goes to pay the debt load to Rosneft. The US is somewhat hobbled because if Venezuela becomes unable to pay it, then Rosneft could potentially lay claim to the Citgo refineries (in the US), of which Venezuela owns 49.9%. That would be blocked by the CFIUS. bit still, what a mess: a country that possesses the world's largest oil reserves and yet is importing petroleum products. 

China is exceptionally worried about its oil supply. Russia and China have been teaming up lately (like the LNG pipeline down Pakistan in exchange for sharing the port at the tip of Pakistan, a gateway to the Arabian Sea), and like the One Belt/One Road Initiative. Might they team up in a bid for the Buzios? I don't know the details like you gentlemen probably do, but it's my impression that the four plats that make up the Buzios offshore are to be sold together. No?

If we were still governed by the PT (workers Party) of Lula (in Jail) and Dilma (mentally unstable) and Michel Temer (next one to go to Jail) we would definitely be dealing heavily with any communist country and in Particular China. Hence the recent selling off of Petrobras assets and in particular BR the refining side of Petrobras, BR is now held by a private partners. Bolsanaro will not allow China to take over Brasil, The next round of auctions IMO will go ahead and break the previous records, just the politics will not allow these blocks to go to the communist countries, the Exxons of this world are not stupid, the political value for the USA to hold these reserves in South America is as strong as any campaign in the ME. This next round will cement Bolsnaros position to put the pension funds in order and start concentrating on infrastructure and the current debt owed to the IMF etc.

These blocks are as valuable to the IOCs and their governments, we will see this when the blocks are auctioned by how many US or Euro IOCs are involved and not left wing countries IOCs.

Edited by James Regan
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