Banks Start Diverging on Oil Prices

Just a couple weeks ago they were all bullish and now Goldman is warning that investors are worried about US production growth. That didn't take long. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has reiterated its optimistic stance on oil. What happened to well thought-out projections and opinions you can trust?

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But they should have been worried about US production from the start. Even with OPEC saying US shale won't derail the cuts deal, the reality is pretty clear. 

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Didn't we learned that forecasting oil prices is just a guess game  and that volatility is the name of the game beacuase of the unpredictability of so many factors from geo-strategy, economy & finance, climate, politics (who has ever predicted this encounter between Russia and Saudi Arabia two years ago that led to OPEC-Non OPEC countries agreements ?  I remember well Goldman Sachs' boss claiming oil was going down to US$ 30 a barrel when it was in the middle 40s and then that agreement changed everything and oil kept going up reaching 69  few weeks ago ? shall we continue to believe these financiers and other predictions or just waiting to every days' trade and watch closely events surrounding oil market ?

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pretty much the same as betting on horses at this point

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