Aramco IPO over subscribed. . BUT . . 100% Retail are Saudis and . . 94% of Institutional Investors are based in Saudi Arabia. Not worth losing your head over a little IPO.

[Jabbar + 465]

Today Dec 4th Saudi Arabia threatened it's OPEC partners it will flood market with oil if they do not go for increasing cuts at meeting. (1) Didn't Saudis learn from 2014 fiasco that this strategy doesn't work anymore. (2)   Saudi threat is one more major reason not to buy IPO. Jeopardize your shareholders (3) Does Saudi Arabia understand OPEC members don't comply now and won't in the fiture. They question why Saudi Arabia can produce 10.3 million/day and they only a fraction of that. (4) Does this threat add to belief OPEC is no longer viable and lost its control.

Did Saudi Arabia ALSO threaten the Saudi Billionaires with another stay at the Riyadh Ritz Carlton if they did not buy IPO ?

Finally, the shale industry consolidation is about to commence in earnest. Also the oil industry as a whole is focusing on fewer oil producing regions thus increasing sales/purchases of oil properties and increasing efficiencies, (and Banking Fees)

The next year looks to be a banner year investment banks in the Oil and Gas Industry.

The Investment Bank Oil, Gas, and Commodity analyst from the best MBA schools in the country have a problem projecting oil prices out ONE Month, much less TWO YEARS. 

I remember when oil first spiked and traded above $100 a barrel an oil analyst from Investment Bank Goldman Sachs said oil would go to $400 (FOUR HUNDRED DOLLARS) barrel.  He was very wrong. Oil is closer to $40 than $400. 

Now Goldman is projecting out two years.  Really ? Goldman the "White Shoe" Investment Bankers with "Brown Noses".  Gotta get them Banking Fees.

Goldman projection based is on less oil.  IEA, EIA and OPEC disagree. Just read a great OIL PRICE article about NEW EXPLORATION in Africa.  South America is becoming oil super power. TOO MUCH OIL .  How about two years out . . . . projections two years out are foolish.

How about the great job 22 of the leading worldwide Investment Banks did on the Aramco IPO.  With $450 MILLION in fees available for the taking they could not muster any meaningful interest from the wests investment funds.  I imagine that $450 MILLION will cut a haircut.  With a majority of the IPO funds coming from internal Saudi Arabia investors this defeats the whole purpose of the IPO.  The purpose was to acquire foreign investment for VISION 2030.  So where does this leave us.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Jabbar

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

The only way this prediction is plausible is if Goldman has information the rest of us aren't privy to.  E.g. if the leaders at Goldman were connected to US government leaders who happened to be planning some catastrophe in the Middle East.  It doesn't have to be that, exactly, but it would have to be some sort of collusion. 

Does such collusion exist?

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,177]

31 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Does such collusion exist?

Anything is possible, but I tend to lean KSA won't let out "true" numbers of cash on hand, holdings, and what their actual amount in the ground is. I personally wouldn't buy their IPO. Way too many unknowns.