Winter Storms Hitting Continental US

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I don't believe in the "no loss till u exit thing."  EDIT: If you lose money, you lose money regardless of whether you continue to hold or exit.  Period.  But prices really feel like they're consolidating. Note the rally intraday.  Still, neutral this weekend.  

By the way, not a good idea to use fund manager strats with a 3x etf that decays.  Those strats are designed more for traditional equities where buy and hold won't kill you.  And few of them work in a bear market.

Edited December 13, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Bob D + 562]

 

Zhong Lu thanks for the trading updates.  You are a brave man. 

I fear any rally in NG prices will be contained to the intra-month cash market and not be reflected in the futures market.  We've seen that the last few years.  Basis markets absorb the rally; Henry Hub moves little but locational gas prices can explode.  

Cold weather is a week or two phenomenon.  Unless the cold weather occurs at the end of a month demand will not be reflected into the future month.  Why?  Production is 93Bcf/d? and storage is still very high.  We'll likely end winter at 1.7-1.8Tcf.  That's the kiss of death for 2020 and curve reflects that.  Yes, spec short open interest is high but they need a reason to exit and I just don't see it.

I too will try to bottom pick with short term horizon exits. 

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Bob D

[Zhong Lu + 845]

3 hours ago, Bob D said:

 

Zhong Lu thanks for the trading updates.  You are a brave man. 

I fear any rally in NG prices will be contained to the intra-month cash market and not be reflected in the futures market.  We've seen that the last few years.  Basis markets absorb the rally; Henry Hub moves little but locational gas prices can explode.  

Cold weather is a week or two phenomenon.  Unless the cold weather occurs at the end of a month demand will not be reflected into the future month.  Why?  Production is 93Bcf/d? and storage is still very high.  We'll likely end winter at 1.7-1.8Tcf.  That's the kiss of death for 2020 and curve reflects that.  Yes, spec short open interest is high but they need a reason to exit and I just don't see it.

I too will try to bottom pick with short term horizon exits. 

 

Waiting for conclusive break over 9-day SMA before committing any large amounts.  Scalping with small positions just to pass time.  Not holding shorts overnight due to risk of widowmaker event (e.g. Henry Hub or some other nat gas storage site blowing up or getting set on fire).  I know it's unlikely but with the bias this short, I'll only scalp counter-trends.  Experience with penny stocks a must for dealing with shi- like UGAZ.  

EDIT: Small position into the weekend UGAZ.  Small.  

Edited December 13, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Martin + 31]

Waaa-haaaay, some reasonably positive news:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Its-Time-To-Get-Back-Into-Natural-Gas.html

[Zhong Lu + 845]

We're doomed on Monday. Accepting bye bye to scalping profits from last week (small position in U currently).

Reason:

https://www.investing.com/analysis/natural-gas-would-bears-prefer-to-escape-trapping-before-weekly-closing-200492369

This guy is always 100% wrong.  He's one of the most reliable analysts on natty that I've ever seen.

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_d6fc35d4911a5e29e973b0b5d5c80326.png

Oh Lord.  My money.  It's gone. Gone.

Edited December 14, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_d6fc35d4911a5e29e973b0b5d5c80326.png

Oh Lord.  My money.  It's gone. Gone.

Not clear why "your money is all gone," but if I look at that chart and the superimposed titles of posts made by that guy Singh, it looks to me that every single one of  his predictions has gone South.  As you point out, he is 100% wrong.   You have to wonder what outfit has hired him as an "analyst" and issues him a paycheck. 

Sitting outside all this, I look in as a naive observer and it sure looks to me like there is a lot of gas out there trying to chase a home.  And as long as you have this vast flood of new gas entering the market and no place to park it, no buyers to burn it, then the pricing will remain depressed, no matter what.  So, for those of you who have perhaps a spare $150 million to go play with, I suggest buying a "hull," perhaps an older tanker of say 10 years, on the cheap, and sending it to a yard to have converted to a NatGas LNG tanker.  You save the build time for the hull and engine, and get the ship finished a year faster. My guess is that gas will remain valuable in the EU Market, notwithstanding the idea that Russia is going to flood Europe with its gas.  Russia is not there as some nice rich uncle, they are in there to promote their own earnings, and will continue to charge a hefty premium for Russian gas.  Plus, there will be a premium for the transmission costs via Nordstream II, assuming it is put on-stream.  So, LNG can be priced below that, bought cheaply enough in the USA, and earn a nice profit for the shipper on your ship.   Hey, why not?

Edited December 14, 2019 by Jan van Eck
change $15 MM to $150 MM for LNG tanker

[Zhong Lu + 845]

That requires 15 million dollars.  What's the point of doing all that if you're already that rich? 

EDIT: Drama makes for good entertainment.  It's true!

Edited December 14, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

17 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

That requires 15 million dollars.  What's the point of doing all that if you're already that rich? 

Sorry, should have been $150 million.   Hey, rich people do deals like that all day long!

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Yeah but what's the point? 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

UGAZZers are NOT doomed tomorrow.  Wow.  

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

On 12/15/2019 at 4:20 AM, Zhong Lu said:

That requires 15 million dollars.  What's the point of doing all that if you're already that rich? 

EDIT: Drama makes for good entertainment.  It's true!

Because they can!

[Zhong Lu + 845]

LOL. You'd think they'd have better things to do with their money.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Now I wish I had bought more on Friday.  As I said it was a small position.

Holding.  Will add if it breaks out decisively over 9-day SMA.  

EDIT: Or I can sell and rescalp when lower.  Still scalping with small positions. This is not break out. 

Edited December 16, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

20% in for swing. U. 8.8.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Time for some crying.  (After I sold).