Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Maniac depressiveness is evidence of childhood genius.  It's probably a good idea on her parents' part to let her do what she wants. You don't learn much in school anyways.  Just look back at your school years.  She's visiting the UN and traveling around the world and meeting prime ministers, so she's not missing out on much.  

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

7 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

She's visiting the UN and traveling around the world and meeting prime ministers, so she's not missing out on much.  

Seriously?

What about her childhood?

I would also argue that learning is done in schools/universities not meeting prime ministers or politicians, unless of course you are learning how to be deceitful.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Mmmm. The real point of going to a good college is to make good social connections.  Unless you're picking up a technical degree like engineering or medicine, there's little point.  Consider all the business and literature majors: do they really learn anything in school? Or is the entire point just to get a degree and make the right connections?   She's making connections right now. I'm surprised a conservative is arguing that "learning is done in universities." I thought conservatives hated them.  

How much "learning" is done in a liberal school, anyways? 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

Just now, Zhong Lu said:

Mmmm. The real point of going to a good college is to make good social connections.  She's doing that right now. I'm surprised a conservative  is arguing that "learning is done in universities." I thought conservatives hated them.  

You honestly think that? yeah have fun but get a degree also.

Do you honestly think the prime ministers/presidents she has met give a damn about her and will stay in touch? wow!

Who said I was a conservative?

[Zhong Lu + 845]

School is an utter and total waste of time for some people.  The connections she makes now will help her in the future. It's not just the prime ministers, but all the other people around them, too.  Success is determined more by connections then merit.  Frankly, unless you're in a technical field, I don't even bother distinguishing between the two.  

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Papillon + 485]

With respect sir I would agree with the sentiment of 'what about her childhood?' And she is barely old enough even now to talk of college, we are talking literally 'school'. Should we therefore let all manic depressives just do as they wish incase of some inherent hidden genius? I wonder how that would turn out sir? 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

She's not a kid. Legally she is, but psychologically she's not.  Probably stopped being a "kid" at age 7.  Not all maniac depressives are geniuses.  But many geniuses are maniac depressives.  And the evidence suggests she's obviously a genius- for good or ill I'm neutral on.  

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

2 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

School is an utter and total waste of time for some people.  The connections she makes now will help her in the future. It's not just the prime ministers, but all the other people around them, too.  Success is determined more by connections then merit.  Frankly, unless you're in a technical field, I don't even bother distinguishing between the two.  

In my opinion school is exactly the right environment for a 15 year old girl with Asperger's. I don't know where you get Manic depressive from??

If you think a 15 year old girl with Asperger's is in the right environment doing what she is currently doing then I'm lost for words. Her parents should be charged with child abuse IMO.

You are entitled to your view of course and clearly your school life couldn't have been personally beneficial to you, that doesn't mean it wasn't for others.

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

FYI

Asperger syndrome (AS), also known as Asperger's, is a developmental disorder characterised by significant difficulties in social interaction and nonverbal communication, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

This is not a manic depressive (now known as Bi-polar) where huge mood swings occur.

Asperger's is a form of autism

[Zhong Lu + 845]

People don't like her views so they attack the person.  You're making broad sweeping generalizations about the parenting situation of a person you've never met, and heard of only in the news.  Do you trust the media? 

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

1 minute ago, Zhong Lu said:

People don't like her views so they attack the person.  You're making broad sweeping generalizations about the parenting situation of a person you've never met, and heard of only in the news.  Do you trust the media? 

Zhong I do have eyes!

[Zhong Lu + 845]

I'm surprised people complain about how the media is unreliable and untrustworthy, and then immediately make broad sweeping generalizations based on media accounts the moment something appears in the media that seems to supports their world view.  

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

6 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

  1 minute ago, Zhong Lu said:

People don't like her views so they attack the person.  You're making broad sweeping generalizations about the parenting situation of a person you've never met, and heard of only in the news.  Do you trust the media? 

I have not attacked her in any way, I feel sorry that her parents choose to put a child on the world stage for all to poke fun at, and that's a child with Asperger's where she finds it difficult to interact socially (by definition of the syndrome) . If that's a sweeping generalisation on her parents "skills" or decision making then so be it, but I think its patently clear that is what has happened, I don't see how you bring in that its down to the media???

Do I trust the media? Of course not but that isn't the point to this discussion.

Zhong it is you that stated she is a manic depressive and somehow concluded that she must therefore be a "genius" when she is neither!

[Zhong Lu + 845]

A person who meets heads of state at age 15 is a genius.  Also, you are attacking her in a passive aggressive way.  "I am sorry she's like that," or "I'm sorry she's in that situation,"  etc. etc. I'm culturally half-Asian, you know.  

My point is this: neither of us know much about her.  So I wouldn't make any generalizations at all, except that:

1.  Apparently she's met heads of state and got invited to make a speech at the UN at age 15.

2.  Most kids at age 15 don't have that on their resume.  

For anyone reading this who has kids: what were they doing at age 15? 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Zhong Lu

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

3 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Also, you are attacking her in a passive aggressive way.  "I am sorry she's like that," or "I'm sorry she's in that situation,"  etc. etc

No you are putting words in my mouth!

I have said neither comment

I have said" I feel sorry her parents chose to put her on the worlds stage" please read my post!!!

I get that you think she has achieved more at 15 than most other kids by meeting influential people, and I'm sure in some ways it is a great thing but that doesn't make her a genius.

the fact she has been taken out of school for a long time to do so IMO is not correct. 

10 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

I'm culturally half-Asian, you know.  

I have no idea what relevance this has????

 

I guess we will agree to disagree on this topic and see no benefit in continuing the discussion

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

53 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

She's not a kid. Legally she is, but psychologically she's not.  Probably stopped being a "kid" at age 7.  Not all maniac depressives are geniuses.  But many geniuses are maniac depressives.  And the evidence suggests she's obviously a genius- for good or ill I'm neutral on.  

For the record, sir, the term is "manic depression" not maniac. I had a good friend growing up who was manic depressive. He was far from a genius and died one week ago quite destitute. That outcome is far from uncommon for bipolar personalities. I wouldn't wish it upon anyone sir. 

This whole aside is totally off topic. I recommend if you wish to discuss a child being manipulated by others for political and social gain that you create your own topic where it can be discussed at length. There's a menu right at the top of this page that lets you do just that. Choose "Start a Discussion".

[Marcin + 519]

When you have a friend doing stupid things, shooting himself in the foot, you say: Dude get your act together.

The same is with current trajectory of the United States, constantly shooting itself in the foot. The thing is this developments, weakenining of the country, present no direct danger to United States and its people. Current path per my assessment could lead to US being more isolationist, but US still will be well-off, safe and secure at its own continent of North America. But this could not be said about smaller countries currently living under the umbrella of US military and economy. Smaller countries would be vulnerable as exposed to vast power of authoritarian country (dictatorship) - China. In the long term, say after 25 or more years this isolationism will come back to United States as appetite and power of China will increase (imagine developed economy of 50 trillion dollars GDP, behemoth like Roman Empire in ancient Mediterranean region), it will be seeking resources and markets in US backyard: Latin America. At future 30 million bbl/d consumption, insatiable Chinese demand for oil could only be fulfilled by usage of Orinoco heavy oil from Venezuela.

With this premise in mind I would enumerate major weak points of US:

1. Lost independence and degradation of Federal Reserve. It started long ago but it came back hunting US since Great Depression. It starts with organization of staffing of the FED Board. Members are resigning en masse after serving a few years. Membership is just a good point in CV that is later discounted in better jobs. The weakest members of the Board stay to become Chairs. The fact that US President can fire FED Chair is a bad option. Solution is simple: in case the Member resigns before 14 years term, all his earnings till the end of the term plus 5 years are forfeited by the state. He is by law not elligible for any job in any company in the United States and it is felony. Till the end of 14 years term.

The results of bad staffing and revolving doors practise are irresponsible decisions. ZIRP policy was good for a short time after Great Depression, but it became a rule (Zero Interest Rates Policy), I mean real rates after CPI deduction. During most of last decade these were actually NIRPs in real terms (Negative Interest Rates Policy).

In US society without safety net of other developed states (and related redistribution of majority of the income), ZIRP or NIRP policies are increasing inequalities in US society. US is currently more like South Africa than Germany. It is simpy destroying middle class. Slowly but inevitably turning US into oligarchy. There are many other negative effects: no savings, distortion of economic policies of corporations, keeping zombie companies from bankruptsy, too much leverage, unproductive leverage in all parts of economy and society.

A few more years of kicking the can down the road left, before de-dollarization will really kick in.

Edited December 3, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Papillon + 485]

25 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Most kids at age 15 don't have that on their resume.  

Because they are too busy being educated by law sir.

26 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

For anyone reading this who has kids: what were they doing at age 15? 

Enjoying their innocence and childhood, as I was at that age.

With respect sir, I would have to agree on the whole with Mr Plant and in all honesty if you believe as the user Remake It seems to that all she has done is 'independent' then I simply disagree. May I add for your peace of mind however that I have not attacked this girl as you suggest we are. If you peruse the whole conversation here and indeed others this will be very clear to you. I have actually criticised the attackers.

I would also add that I think it is a shame that you felt your personal education, up to a certain age potentially, was a waste of time but with all due respect sir it is you who is making the broad sweeping statements, in this case concerning the European education system. 

[Papillon + 485]

23 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

This whole aside is totally off topic.

I agree gentlemen, we seem to have gone so far off the rails that we are not even in the train anymore. And yes, it is called 'manic depression' and not 'maniac depressiveness'.

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

Maniac depressiveness is evidence of childhood genius

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

You don't learn much in school anyways.

This is why we get an education sir, and to hopefully learn that 'anyways' is not a word. I jest Zhong, forgive my cheek sir, just a little banter. Respectfully, Papillon.

Edited December 3, 2019 by Papillon

[Marcin + 519]

For your consideration, list of all FED Governors appointed during the latest 22 years will the length of their stay at FED.

Nobody stayed full term of 14 years.

Name / Bank / Start of the term / Date of resignation / Actual duration at FED in years

Roger W. Ferguson Jr.	Boston	November 5, 1997	April 28, 2006	8
Mark W. Olson	Minneapolis	December 7, 2001	June 30, 2006	5
Susan S. Bies	Chicago	December 7, 2001	March 30, 2007	5
Ben S. Bernanke	Atlanta	August 5, 2002	June 21, 2005	3
Donald L. Kohn	Kansas City	August 5, 2002	September 1, 2010	8
Ben S. Bernanke	Atlanta	February 1, 2006	January 31, 2014	8	Chairman (2006–2014)
Kevin M. Warsh	New York	February 24, 2006	April 2, 2011	5
Randall S. Kroszner	Richmond	March 1, 2006	January 21, 2009	3
Frederic S. Mishkin	Boston	September 5, 2006	August 31, 2008	2
Elizabeth A. Duke	Philadelphia	August 5, 2008	August 31, 2013	5
Daniel Tarullo	Boston	January 28, 2009	April 5, 2017	8
Janet Yellen	San Francisco	October 4, 2010	February 3, 2018	7	Chair (2014–2018)
Sarah Bloom Raskin	Richmond	October 4, 2010	March 13, 2014	3
Jerome Powell	New York	May 25, 2012	January 31, 2028 (Incumbent)		Chairman (2018–present)
Jeremy C. Stein	Chicago	May 30, 2012	May 28, 2014	2
Stanley Fischer	New York	May 28, 2014	October 13, 2017	3
Lael Brainard	Richmond	June 16, 2014	January 31, 2026 (Incumbent)
Randal Quarles	Kansas City	October 13, 2017	January 31, 2032 (Incumbent)		Vice Chairman for

Edited December 3, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

20 minutes ago, Marcin said:

When you have a friend doing stupid things, shooting himself in the foot, you say: Dude get your act together.

The same is with current trajectory of the United States, constantly shooting itself in the foot. The thing is this developments, weakenining of the country, present no direct danger to United States and its people. Current path per my assessment could lead to US being more isolationist, but US still will be well-off, safe and secure at its own continent of North America. But this could not be said about smaller countries currently living under the umbrella of US military and economy. Smaller countries would be vulnerable as exposed to vast power of authoritarian country (dictatorship) - China. In the long term, say after 25 or more years this isolationism will come back to United States as appetite and power of China will increase (imagine developed economy of 50 trillion dollars GDP, behemoth like Roman Empire in ancient Mediterranean region), it will be seeking resources and markets in US backyard: Latin America. At future 30 million bbl/d consumption, insatiable Chinese demand for oil could only be fulfilled by usage of Orinoco heavy oil from Venezuela.

With this premise in mind I would enumerate major weak points of US:

1. Lost independence and degradation of Federal Reserve. It started long ago but it came back hunting US since Great Depression. It starts with organization of staffing of the FED Board. Members are resigning en masse after serving a few years. Membership is just a good point in CV that is later discounted in better jobs. The weakest members of the Board stay to become Chairs. The fact that US President can fire FED Chair is a bad option. Solution is simple: in case the Member resigns before 14 years term, all his earnings till the end of the term plus 5 years are forfeited by the state. He is by law not elligible for any job in any company in the United States and it is felony. Till the end of 14 years term.

The results of bad staffing and revolving doors practise are irresponsible decisions. ZIRP policy was good for a short time after Great Depression, but it became a rule (Zero Interest Rates Policy), I mean real rates after CPI deduction. During most of last decade these were actually NIRPs in real terms (Negative Interest Rates Policy).

In US society without safety net of other developed states (and related redistribution of majority of the income), ZIRP or NIRP policies are increasing inequalities in US society. US is currently more like South Africa than Germany. It is simpy destroying middle class. Slowly but inevitably turning US into oligarchy. There are many other negative effects: no savings, distortion of economic policies of corporations, keeping zombie companies from bankruptsy, too much leverage, unproductive leverage in all parts of economy and society.

A few more years of kicking the can down the road left, before de-dollarization will really kick in.

top marks for trying to get back on topic!!🤣🤣

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

38 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

top marks for trying to get back on topic!!🤣🤣

Wait, what was the topic again? 

[Marcin + 519]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

top marks for trying to get back on topic!!🤣🤣

FED problems are really important, but I never noticed them surfacing in media. You do not need top minds to conduct responsible & long-term monetary policy. But it requires independent individuals.

The world monetary policies became loose. World is awash with easy money.

But only: UE , US, Japan and South Korea have ZIRPs and NIRPs, because they can.

UE: euro is mainly used within Europe, safety net=redistribution of income from rich to poor, eliminates negative effects of NIRPs on societies (not true for US),

US: dollar is world reserve currency so for the limited period of time US can have ZIRPs and at the same time encourage dependant countries to finance its fiscal and trade deficits by buying treasuries. Or if it is not enough simply printing money (you only need scientific term for it: Quantitative Easing),

Japan: closed economy, Japanese companies are investing in Japan government bonds, 30 years of stagnation.

South Korea: I do not know why.

Base rate for China is still over 4% (for 10+ years), why ? Because they think long-term, want high savings, to have source of safe bank loans to conduct vast investment programs, want to be developed country, their central bank governors are doing what is right for the country, and not politically convenient for the next election.

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Marcin
typo

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

1 hour ago, Marcin said:

FED problems are really important, but I never noticed them surfacing in media. You do not need top minds to conduct responsible & long-term monetary policy. But it requires independent individuals.

The world monetary policies became loose. World is awash with easy money.

But only: UE , US, Japan and South Korea have ZIRPs and NIRPs, because they can.

UE: euro is mainly used within Europe, safety net=redistribution of income from rich to poor, eliminates negative effects of NIRPs on societies (not true for US),

US: dollar is world reserve currency so for the limited period of time US can have ZIRPs and at the same time encourage dependant countries to finance its fiscal and trade deficits by buying treasuries. Or if it is not enough simply printing money (you only need scientific term for it: Quantitative Easing),

Japan: closed economy, Japanese companies are investing in Japan government bonds, 30 years of stagnation.

South Korea: I do not know why.

Base rate for China is still over 4% (for 10+ years), why ? Because they think long-term, want high savings, to have source of safe bank loans to conduct vast investment programs, want to be developed country, their central bank governors are doing what is right for the country, and not politically convenient for the next election.

The Federal Reserve is not part of the US government.

Not.

At.

All. 

It's a fiction foisted on us by shady characters. I recommend you start your own topic on this and I'll back that up with lots of info. This topic has continued off the rails

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

FYI

Asperger syndrome (AS), also known as Asperger's, is a developmental disorder characterised by significant difficulties in social interaction and nonverbal communication, along with restricted and repetitive patterns of behavior and interests.

This is not a manic depressive (now known as Bi-polar) where huge mood swings occur.

Asperger's is a form of autism

Asperger's was removed from the DSM 5

It's all "autism spectrum disorder" now.