Tom Kirkman

Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Firstly I do not know how anybody including the IMF (which apparently is the source for this prediction) can forecast 10 years into the future!

It is hard enough to forecast with any great accuracy where we will be in 1-3 years let alone 10.

That said, I do tend to agree that India, which nobody ever mentions, will be a major superpower in the very near future. It may well be correct that India and not the US will be the major threat to China's plan for hegemony in the next 2 decades. I wonder when hostilities and trade wars break out between these 2 countries?

i think China's biggest challenge will not be to become the hegemony but to remain as one.

@Rob Plant You are right these predictions are wrong (and you are right twice because it is difficult to predict 13 years into the future), I will prove it in next 3 sentences.

@remake itVisual Capitalist is a nice page, for education purposes but not for serious analysis. Back to predictions: Authors of these graph assume average growth of Chinese economy 8.1% and India's economy 13.0%  (simple math) in the 2017-2030 period. This is technically not possible:

a) China is approaching level of development (they have 16,000 USD GDP per capita, this point is near at the 25,000-30,000 USD per capita) where simple upper-middle income levers of growth become exausted. Increasing labour efficiency in services is harder and slower than in goods or deriving from positive externalities of first class infrstructure. So China will grow by maximum 6%-7% in the next 10 years, later they will be like Japan/Soth Korea still astonishing 4%-5% till reaching 70% of US GDP / per capita.

b) India is avery ill patient. I think that because Modi second term ends in 2024 (2014-2024 lost decade in India's economy) and could even win in 2024 (disaster for India, I hope not) and because of very bad policies and laws (I could elaborate about them in separate post) maximum that India can really get (after correction of fraudulent government statistics, that it is fradulent is official, Chief of Statistical Office that dared to oppose this practise was quickly dissmissed) is about 6.0%-7.5% in 2017-2030 period.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Back to predictions: Authors of these graph assume average growth of Chinese economy 8.1% and India's economy 13.0%  (simple math) in the 2017-2030 period. This is technically not possible:

Please read what the graph says it represents.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, remake it said:

Using you logic China would also align with the US, but clearly does not, and in any case most nations expanding at annual GDP growth rates of >7% are in Asia so as time marches on their US trading base will continue to diminish in very much the same way it has wrt to China.

China clearly will never "team up" with the US as they are trying to de-throne them as the hegemony, obviously.

The point I made was not about the US but about India potentially being the main threat long term, therefore your point regarding GDP growth seems rather irrelevant.

  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

That said, I do tend to agree that India, which nobody ever mentions, will be a major superpower in the very near future. It may well be correct that India and not the US will be the major threat to China's plan for hegemony in the next 2 decades. I wonder when hostilities and trade wars break out between these 2 countries?

i think China's biggest challenge will not be to become the hegemony but to remain as one.

On India. You do not need to follow India as it has low chances of becoming superpower of any kind. Many hurdles on this way I will just mention 3 examples that are good at giving impression what are prospects of India, and what type of country it is:

- labour law, it is very difficult to conduct manufacturing/factory in India, as you cannot lay off employees without consent from local authorities (consent nearly impossible because authorities will loose next election etc.),

- land law, it is very difficult to evict people to build physical infrastructure of any kind/manufacturing facility. Judicial proceedings can literally take decades,

- retail or hunger problem. India has inadequate cold supply chain for retail market. This is because there is no competition and domestic retail chains are barely developed. Foreign retail chains like Carrefour or Tesco are banned in India, to protect domest inefficient bussinesses. Remember that India is a hot tropical climate country so waste of food is enormous, prices in retail shops are high, hunger is common.

Every Indian government for 30 years tries to solve above hurdles, without any success.

When these problems and thousand others will be solved, I will start the clock. When the clock shows 20 years India will become superpower. I am already 43 so I doubt I will live long enough to start the clock.

Important side note: PPP vs Nominal for India is really exagerrated. They are substituting Western goods and services for substandard goods and services of Indian origin. Housing in India is a hat made of mud or slums made of wood and paper with 2 sqm per person. Do you really believe in 7,000 USD PPP GDP per capita. 70% of India is rural, 30% in urban ( 70% of urban is slums). India is 2.8 trillion dollar GDP economy (nominal). With current real growth of about 5% (watch electricity, steel, hydrocarbons consumption, retail sales not government fraudulent data, they understate inflation and correct previous years data back to PM Singh times to exagerrate growth) it will take India 30 years to become upper-middle income country. Modi's Hindutva is a good diversion for hungry poor but will not develop India.

Edited by Marcin
typo
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Marcin said:

On India. You do not need to follow India as it has low chances of becoming superpower of any kind. Many hurdles on this way I will just mention 3 examples that are good at giving impression what are prospects of India, and what type of country it is:

- labour law, it is very difficult to conduct manufacturing/factory in India, as you cannot lay off employees without consent from local authorities (consent nearly impossible because authorities will loose next election etc.),

- land law, it is very difficult to evict people to build physical infrastructure of any kind/manufacturing facility. Judicial proceedings can literally take decades,

- retail or hunger problem. India has inadequate cold supply chain for retail market. This is because there is no competition and domestic retail chains are barely developed. Foreign retail chains like Carrefour or Tesco are banned in India, to protect domest inefficient bussinesses. Remember that India is a hot tropical climate country so waste of food is enormous, prices in retail shops are high, hunger is common.

Every Indian government for 30 years tries to solve above hurdles, without any success.

When these problems and thousand others will be solved, I will start the clock. When the clock shows 40 years India will become superpower. I am already 43 so I doubt I will live long enough to start the clock.

I don't necessarily disagree and they do have many hurdles yo get over, However those current laws are very easy to change, they aren't set in stone ad infinitum.

if you read the original thread I did say it would be decades before this was possible, you must have missed that.

Might or might not be relevant to you or I but it certainly will be to the next generation.

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, remake it said:

Please read what the graph says it represents.

You mean it is nominal USD, and I assumed constant 2017 dollars ?. It does not have impact on relative size of economies as predicted in 2030 but I admit changes overall picture. In nominal dollars in my opinion US GDP is understated and Chinese is still exagerrated but by much lower margin, India's economy is still exagerrated by high margin. In my previous analysis I assumed future GDP in PPP dollars ceteris paribus, so have not taken under consideration pressure on both Chinese and Indian currency. Chinese currency: since 2020 current account deficit (Chinese get richer plus they travel a lot) plus pressure of currency war with US and de-dollarization. India: pressure of significant current account deficit. So both currencies could sginificantly weaken in the future.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Marcin said:

You mean it is nominal USD, and I assumed constant 2017 dollars ?. 

No, it was not "economic growth" per se but instead GDP PPP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

if you read the original thread I did say it would be decades before this was possible, you must have missed that.

Might or might not be relevant to you or I but it certainly will be to the next generation.

On growth trajectories it is wholly improbable for no less than 40 years (there are forecasts which propose this), and these may have underestimated the impact of China's Belt & Road strategy which has long term goals to tie other nations to their offerings while India has no such plan.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Seems you will never understand my views

I actually think that I have an idea. 

Re Trump - it is clear to most here that I am no fan. At the same time I think he deserves credit for some things. The questions I am asking YOU are:

1) why blindly cheer Trump? 

2) Why not be smarter about china - build a coalition if you will?

I have stated repeatedly that Trump deserves credit for changing the narrative around China. 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I actually think that I have an idea. 

Re Trump - it is clear to most here that I am no fan. At the same time I think he deserves credit for some things. The questions I am asking YOU are:

1) why blindly cheer Trump? 

I don't blindly cheet Trump, believe it or not.  But I generally think Trump is doing a bangup job in rescuing the U.S. from the incalculable damage wrought by Obama, Clinton, Bush Sr. W. Bush, and ilk.

For example, compare San Francisco now with San Francisco 30 years ago.  The current San Francisco is a sh*thole.  California policies in general seems to be the overall gameplan to turn the entire U.S. into a Venezuela via enforced Socialism, starting from the major cities and inflicting Socislism onto the flyover states.

s21rmc7cfgz31.jpg.82b6422afad09cc68ae9b5a1a8efbcdd.jpg

 

CSN9LnL.png.5811b1ec9ee82c3ec5f4072a0f17d5f3.png

 

uKrypYu.png.84442cc236fcd9ab3e80dea179890831.png

 

Quote

2) Why not be smarter about china - build a coalition if you will?

I have stated repeatedly that Trump deserves credit for changing the narrative around China. 

China isn't intetested in building a "coalition" with the U.S.

Apparently China is primarily interested in reverting to its unrestrained Intellectual Property theft from Western companies, ignoring its promises to the U.N. and continuing to renege ad infinitum on its trade deals.  Trump is actively standing in the way of China steamrolling its lopsided theft from the U.S.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

China isn't intetested in building a "coalition" with the U.S.

I meant build a coalition against China as per @Marcins suggestion. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

9 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Apparently China is primarily interested in reverting to its unrestrained Intellectual Property theft from Western companies, ignoring its promises to the U.N. and continuing to renege ad infinitum on its trade deals.  Trump is actively standing in the way of China steamrolling its lopsided theft from the U.S.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/huawei-research-centre-1.5382725

Thanks trump for all those very high-paying tech sector jobs you drove our way.

"The founder of Huawei says the Chinese tech giant is moving its U.S. research centre to Canada due to American sanctions on the company.

In an interview with the Globe and Mail, Ren Zhengfei said the move was necessary because Huawei would be blocked from interacting with U.S. employees."

Edited by Enthalpic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/huawei-research-centre-1.5382725

Thanks trump for all those high paying tech sector jobs you drove our way.

I agree with Trump booting Huawai out of the U.S.  Huawei is a huge security risk to Western infrastructure and Intellectual Property theft.  Unsurprisingly, Trudeau supports Huawei in Canada.

 

As for CBC News Canada (where the article you linked is from) ...

Proof that Canada’s news media is far-left

"... As I was reading the Globe & Mail’s utterly uncritical story, which might well have been published in Soviet-era Pravda, I was listening to liberalvision CTV “News” Channel and the state-owned CBC News fiasco network in the background. Between them they presented me with at least 6 vehemently anti-Trump “news” stories — in a row.  Seriously. It went on for nearly an hour. Perhaps a “think” tank should have studied that phenomenon and its effect on the market, and profitability.

Maybe (and I know I’ve said this at least once before), the liberal-left Canadian media could switch it up a bit, and try a new thing — start an experiment where they try to tolerate conservatives and conservative thoughts and ideas, and don’t just mock conservatives and Republicans all day long, every day. Their taxpayer-funded 100-page “major” “report” doesn’t even suggest trying anything like that, notwithstanding the immense success Fox News Channel found in the U.S. in market share (they are number one by far), and their profits, and thus their sustainability.

Page one of my (free) report is this headline: Sell and Stop Funding the CBC. Enough said right there. So actually it would end at that headline on page one. Nobody would fall asleep, lose any more tax dollars, and Canadians would actually save huge amounts of tax dollars and get better media too."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

5 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I agree with Trump booting Huawai out of the U.S.  Huawei is a huge security risk to Western infrastructure and Intellectual Property theft.  Unsurprisingly, Trudeau supports Huawei in Canada.

 

As for CBC News Canada (where the article you linked is from) ...

Proof that Canada’s news media is far-left

"... As I was reading the Globe & Mail’s utterly uncritical story, which might well have been published in Soviet-era Pravda, I was listening to liberalvision CTV “News” Channel and the state-owned CBC News fiasco network in the background. Between them they presented me with at least 6 vehemently anti-Trump “news” stories — in a row.  Seriously. It went on for nearly an hour. Perhaps a “think” tank should have studied that phenomenon and its effect on the market, and profitability.

Maybe (and I know I’ve said this at least once before), the liberal-left Canadian media could switch it up a bit, and try a new thing — start an experiment where they try to tolerate conservatives and conservative thoughts and ideas, and don’t just mock conservatives and Republicans all day long, every day. Their taxpayer-funded 100-page “major” “report” doesn’t even suggest trying anything like that, notwithstanding the immense success Fox News Channel found in the U.S. in market share (they are number one by far), and their profits, and thus their sustainability.

Page one of my (free) report is this headline: Sell and Stop Funding the CBC. Enough said right there. So actually it would end at that headline on page one. Nobody would fall asleep, lose any more tax dollars, and Canadians would actually save huge amounts of tax dollars and get better media too."

CBC is slightly left but not as bad as the cons make it out.  Just watch this hour has 22 minutes they make fun of the liberals PLENTY.

I feel we need some Canadian content and without the CBC most of that would go away.

Edited by Enthalpic
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

9 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I agree with Trump

You never have to say that as we already know regardless of topic or action. :)

Also, because those people who lost their jobs in silicon valley were almost certainly Dems.  However, what happens if silicon valley starts going broke?  Who will pay for those vote-buying transfer payments to the flyover farmers?

Edited by Enthalpic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9wjt.thumb.jpg.5a7eba1b5d932527d31799b153c9ae4c.jpg

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 11/28/2019 at 2:43 PM, Rob Plant said:

This is probably true currently, not sure the figures you state are accurate but I get your point.

However in the long term this is going to be a serious problem for China as other S.E Asian countries are already picking up this business and will become major competition for Chinese businesses on market share. It will give not only the US another possibly better option to purchase but also all other countries as these countries will become more efficient and invest in their manufacturing capabilities, up-skill their workforce etc. It also makes the GDP of these countries stronger and they then become less beholden to the will of China politically. It is natural that "fair trading" with these countries will lead to stronger ties to the US and the West. Countries such as Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Korea, Taiwan, and the Indian subcontinent will all benefit.

There is also the ongoing subsidies that the Chinese state will need to be offering many manufacturing plants in order to keep them afloat.

All of this to the detriment of China.

I am by no means saying China will collapse or anything like that but it will be a serious set back for their grand plan for hegemony.

I think Trump has played this out very well (not his biggest fan on many things, but he is a good businessman). There are many upsides for the US at present and I see none for China.

I think your average blue collar John Doe living in the US should be shaking Trump's hand right now.

Just my opinion, feel free to disagree.

 

On 11/28/2019 at 9:05 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Mixed bag of responses in SE Asia.  China and Hong Kong are economic engines.  The internal dispute is a major headache for Beijing.

I think many ordinary people in SE Asia just want the HK / Beijing dispute to die down and go away.

And my strong opinion that China has already lost the trade war with the U.S. seems to genuinely perplex some people in SE Asia.  Because my views on the trade war are nowhere near anything that Asian media reports. 

Also, China tends to be the largest trading partner with most countries in SE Asia region, and many people seem to be reluctant to rock the boat, for fear of affecting their own rice bowl.

USA can win over China only if USA can have an effective manufacturing base that can beat China. But that also needs natural resources, mainly petroleum supply. USA can only supply petroleum for itself and not to other allies like Korea, Japan etc. So, it will all depend on whom the Arabs end up favouring - USA or China. If Arabs side with China, then it will be game over for USA. If Arabs side with USA, it will be curtains for China. It will depend on petroleum supply rather than Trump's or Chinese strategy.

As of now, it looks like Arabs will favour China as they don't want USA to have any more control in military terms over key assets and global sea routes. So, as of now, China has upper hand over USA. It will be very difficult for USA to regain upper hand

On 11/28/2019 at 10:09 PM, Rob Plant said:

OK thanks Tom 

Seems logical thinking I guess

I presume media bias is pro China in general in most S.E Asia countries for purely economic + political reasons then.

Media is controlled by the major source of power which is petroleum. They are biased towards China because China has the support fo all major petroleum exporters - Arabs, Russia and Africans. This is just a reflection of ground reality, not exactly a bias. But it is not correct that Trump is being incompetent or foolish as the power equation does not rely on how a single person acts. Trump has limited powers and there is little he can actually do.

On 12/2/2019 at 5:22 AM, Ward Smith said:

Super long post, much to unpack. 

I'll start with this. My wife of almost 40 years is Chinese. I used to be fairly fluent in Mandarin, out of practice now but still understand much more than I can speak. Unfortunately I learned phonetic style not Pinyin so can't type it properly in English. I have been friends with several hundred Chinese over the decades. I can only name two who moved back (while they could have stayed), and they went to Hong Kong. Others couldn't get green cards etc. We even had 3 Chinese over for Thanksgiving dinner. I love Chinese people, not so much the 0.1% who rule the country as if it is their personal fiefdom. You've heard of "Princelings" I'm sure. Children of senior party members, who when they show up in the news are usually dead from crashing a Lamborghini. Half million dollar car for a kid with no job whose parents "earn" $40,000 a year? 

Xi can "pretend" he's rooting out corruption, but it's baked into the system. All he accomplished was a change of the guard of who gets to collect the red envelopes. 

And there's the rub. For all our warts in the West, since we've allowed for a free press, it (used to) do a great of catching and publicizing the corrupt politicians. Not always and not everywhere, but often enough. Now we have Joe Biden, who figured out a way around the emoluments clause by using his neer do well son to collect the bribes, but because over the past 50 years the press has been taken over by DNC agents, no one was any the wiser. Until Trump made a call. Now everyone gets to act Shocked, Shocked about Trump asking for an investigation while "pretending" that there was NOTHING to investigate! Luckily there's this little thing called the Internet (invented here BTW) and everyone who wants to get informed, can. 

Last, and not because I don't have more to say, but because my post is getting too long, I want to clarify the difference between America being a military superpower and being an economic superpower. We happen to be both, and there are those who will say the one causes the other. The question is, which one? I for one believe the economy supports the military, not the other way around. Unfortunately there are countless fools in and around government who believe it's the other way around. Given that "it's the economy, stupid", Trump is correct that losing millions of manufacturing jobs and industries to China was going to destroy us in the long run. Hence the "trade war", which Tom is correct quoting an author who says we already won, which was never about winning "the trade war", but about reshuffling a crooked deck. China bribed Clinton and got most favored nation status, then leveraged that into building their manufacturing at the Direct expense of ours. Damage done, Trump is doing what he can to fix it. Obama said, "What are you going to do, wave a magic wand? Those jobs are never coming back". Whoops they Are coming back, which is why China is trying to interfere in This election to get Trump out of office, to be replaced by someone easier to manipulate. 

 

Economic might is a result of controlling natural resources via military. Just imagine a situation where you are a rich man with lots of money while another man is a gangster with a gang and people who are willing to kill and get killed under his orders. Who do you think will have the real control over affairs? You or the gangster? In real world, you can equate the gang with military and wealth with economy. Military power trumps economy simply because the military power can kill the rich ones and forcibly take their wealth whereas the rich ones can't forcibly take the might from the military powers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Economic might is a result of controlling natural resources via military. Just imagine a situation where you are a rich man with lots of money while another man is a gangster with a gang and people who are willing to kill and get killed under his orders. Who do you think will have the real control over affairs? You or the gangster? In real world, you can equate the gang with military and wealth with economy. Military power trumps economy simply because the military power can kill the rich ones and forcibly take their wealth whereas the rich ones can't forcibly take the might from the military powers

At some level the strong one has to worry about the stronger one. In Mexico right now cartels control the wealth and they don't worry about the govt but they Do worry about each other. The gang's power comes from wealth, those willing to kill and be killed aren't doing it for love, they're doing it out of greed and fear. Ruthless people have a temporary advantage, but they hire other ruthless people like them, any one of which could seek to supplant them. The metaphor starts to fall apart, you end up with pariah states like North Korea. They are ruthless but they can only exercise so much dominion. Kim spends more time worrying about those around him than what Trump is doing. He has the tiger by the tail end he knows he can never let up his grip or the tiger gets him. Trump thought he could negotiate with him, invite him into the family of nations. He didn't understand Kim needs to project strength constantly, or else…

Wealth wins, at least for now. To defeat America China needs to defeat our economy. They might have manufacturing prowess and using Japanese pick and place robots in factories owned by Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) they manufacture phones for Apple (an American company which pretends to be Irish to pay less taxes). What can the US manufacture, except a missile that can be fired from over a thousand miles away and precisely fly through Xi's window? That missile probably "costs" $30 million, but so what, it's just funny money. The US dollar is the world reserve currency mainly thanks to the Petrodollar. Multiple actors are seeking to upset that apple cart, especially China. But would you trust a dollar, backed by the Power and Majesty of the US or the renimbi backed by a secretive cabal of 0.01% of China's population who hold onto power by a thread and are known to be corrupt? 

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

At some level the strong one has to worry about the stronger one. In Mexico right now cartels control the wealth and they don't worry about the govt but they Do worry about each other. The gang's power comes from wealth, those willing to kill and be killed aren't doing it for love, they're doing it out of greed and fear. Ruthless people have a temporary advantage, but they hire other ruthless people like them, any one of which could seek to supplant them. The metaphor starts to fall apart, you end up with pariah states like North Korea. They are ruthless but they can only exercise so much dominion. Kim spends more time worrying about those around him than what Trump is doing. He has the tiger by the tail end he knows he can never let up his grip or the tiger gets him. Trump thought he could negotiate with him, invite him into the family of nations. He didn't understand Kim needs to project strength constantly, or else…

Wealth wins, at least for now. To defeat America China needs to defeat our economy. They might have manufacturing prowess and using Japanese pick and place robots in factories owned by Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) they manufacture phones for Apple (an American company which pretends to be Irish to pay less taxes). What can the US manufacture, except a missile that can be fired from over a thousand miles away and precisely fly through Xi's window? That missile probably "costs" $30 million, but so what, it's just funny money. The US dollar is the world reserve currency mainly thanks to the Petrodollar. Multiple actors are seeking to upset that apple cart, especially China. But would you trust a dollar, backed by the Power and Majesty of the US or the renimbi backed by a secretive cabal of 0.01% of China's population who hold onto power by a thread and are known to be corrupt? 

Read my above comment about how Arabs are supporting China over USA. This means that Petrodollar is falling apart and is in place only as a stop gap measure. Once that is completely down, then by what means can USA have any major influence?

Equating North Korea to a gang is a bit biased. All governments are gangs, including USA. Why do you think there is a feud between Trump and DNC? Do you think it is any different from Kim worrying over his internal rivals?

China is governed by a meritocratic system whereby the most intelligent people are selected into CPC using a very meritocratic and tough examination. The reason for Chinese success is that their establishment is filled with intelligent people who have no insecurities. In places where people are elected for being a loudmouth going around promising stuffs, low IQ & low EQ people tend to get high posts who then always act in insecurity as they know that they got something they did not deserve and now want to protect their position from someone who is more deserving. This situation is much worse than in China where natural law governs rather than whims of people. Meritocracy is based on natural law and is always supreme to democracy which is based on whims of people. For example, Coppernicus was beaten up by people and put in jail by the church because he opposed the view that earth is centre of solar system. The punishment meted was popular and democratic as it had support of the masses. But Coppernicus was still correct as his words were based on meritocratic means. Just because every man says that earth is flat does not mean earth will become flat. Similarly, in governance too, democracy is inferior to meritocracy. So, by all means China trumps USA in governance system.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

At some level the strong one has to worry about the stronger one. In Mexico right now cartels control the wealth and they don't worry about the govt but they Do worry about each other. The gang's power comes from wealth, those willing to kill and be killed aren't doing it for love, they're doing it out of greed and fear. Ruthless people have a temporary advantage, but they hire other ruthless people like them, any one of which could seek to supplant them. The metaphor starts to fall apart, you end up with pariah states like North Korea. They are ruthless but they can only exercise so much dominion. Kim spends more time worrying about those around him than what Trump is doing. He has the tiger by the tail end he knows he can never let up his grip or the tiger gets him. Trump thought he could negotiate with him, invite him into the family of nations. He didn't understand Kim needs to project strength constantly, or else…

Wealth wins, at least for now. To defeat America China needs to defeat our economy. They might have manufacturing prowess and using Japanese pick and place robots in factories owned by Foxconn (a Taiwanese company) they manufacture phones for Apple (an American company which pretends to be Irish to pay less taxes). What can the US manufacture, except a missile that can be fired from over a thousand miles away and precisely fly through Xi's window? That missile probably "costs" $30 million, but so what, it's just funny money. The US dollar is the world reserve currency mainly thanks to the Petrodollar. Multiple actors are seeking to upset that apple cart, especially China. But would you trust a dollar, backed by the Power and Majesty of the US or the renimbi backed by a secretive cabal of 0.01% of China's population who hold onto power by a thread and are known to be corrupt? 

Mexico gangs - US can and should solve this problem, through literal control of Mexican state by US military or economic sanctions against Mexico, which became narco state like Escobar's Columbia in the past. Mexico would cripple in 6 months without US money. Why it is not done ? This is a real problem of drug abuse affecting millions of Americans. Because tackling this problem is not popular & good for winning next election, according to campaign strategists, so kicking the can down the road again.

De-dollarization already started - Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela are major proponents. US control over status of reserve currency is diminishing because of Chinese trading in own currency (only 15% now), building of alternative global institutions (SCO, BRI, AIIB).

Corruption of Chinese authorities - @Ward Smith This is really pot calling the kettle black ! United States is the most corrupt country in Top 10 largest economies, definitely most corrupt developed country (I am not sure about India, so here is caveat). Here comes proof: US corruption is directly related to making of law. Largest US corporations CAN and DO BUY ACTS OF CONGRESS, like good old Don Corleone in Godfather. Only here it is not Mario Puzo imagination but reality. Remember Citibank Act ? One of prime reasons of Recent Financial Crisis in US. It repealed Glass-Steagal Act. And you know what: Citibank Act is still the law because ALL US POLITICIANS ARE THIEVES & TRAITORS by most standards of developed world. I know what I am saying, I am also Certified Internal Auditor among other things. On the other hand Chinese and all other politicians are just stealing money from government contracts etc (golden rule of 10%).

 

 

  • Haha 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I generally think Trump is doing a bangup job in rescuing the U.S. from the incalculable damage wrought by Obama, Clinton, Bush Sr. W. Bush, and ilk.

fair enough. I accept the Trump might be the best choice of a shitty bunch. 

The point I am trying to get across is that there is a fundamental conflict between the West and China (and India potentially in the longterm @Rob Plant). And trump seems focused on short term victories not the longterm conflict.... Simply blindly saying cheering him and declaring takes focus away from the longterm... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lobbying deserves anecdote. I do not know how much is true and made up. In mid 90s young Polish democracy copied everything American. So also initiative appeared relating to enacting professional Lobbying Act. But when lawyers received project for review they answered that this clauses are already adressed by Polish regulations. Where it is ?How it comes ? Astonished proponents exclaimed. It is in Penal Code: 5 years for this, 2 years for this and finaly 10 years for this clause.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

The reason for Chinese success is that their establishment is filled with intelligent people who have no insecurities. In places where people are elected for being a loudmouth going around promising stuffs, low IQ & low EQ people tend to get high posts who then always act in insecurity as they know that they got something they did not deserve and now want to protect their position from someone who is more deserving. This situation is much worse than in China where natural law governs rather than whims of people.

I think you have a very Utopian view of the Chinese political system.

If you have travelled to China and spoken to dozens of Chinese people,not just read books ie speak to factory owners, businessmen etc who you would expect to have a reasonable IQ they are almost all totally disillusioned regarding their local governance and everyone I have ever met has said it is a totally corrupt system where these tests are bought and paid for to achieve political advancement within the system. The same can be said with international accreditations such as ISO 9001 where these are bought within 1 day of someone asking for them with no actual audit ever being carried out. Lloyds register dont even recognise their own Chinese branch as being reputable!! The corruption within China is the same as in Russia both politically and economically. If you want to do business in Russia then you are expected to offer bribes as a matter of course, same in Brazil and many areas of S.E Asia and MENA. The same cannot be said of USA or Western countries in general as there are strict laws in place and prison sentences as punishment. Yes there is corruption on a political level, that is obvious, look no further than Mr. Biden!

Regarding where oil and the ME are concerned I cannot see a time where Saudi will side with China especially as China is aligning more and more with Iran.

Meritocracies are great when they aren't being abused by corruption, however show me a meritocracy anywhere in the world that isn't.

Respectfully

  • Like 1
  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

I think you have a very Utopian view of the Chinese political system.

If you have travelled to China and spoken to dozens of Chinese people,not just read books ie speak to factory owners, businessmen etc who you would expect to have a reasonable IQ they are almost all totally disillusioned regarding their local governance and everyone I have ever met has said it is a totally corrupt system where these tests are bought and paid for to achieve political advancement within the system. The same can be said with international accreditations such as ISO 9001 where these are bought within 1 day of someone asking for them with no actual audit ever being carried out. Lloyds register dont even recognise their own Chinese branch as being reputable!! The corruption within China is the same as in Russia both politically and economically. If you want to do business in Russia then you are expected to offer bribes as a matter of course, same in Brazil and many areas of S.E Asia and MENA. The same cannot be said of USA or Western countries in general as there are strict laws in place and prison sentences as punishment. Yes there is corruption on a political level, that is obvious, look no further than Mr. Biden!

Regarding where oil and the ME are concerned I cannot see a time where Saudi will side with China especially as China is aligning more and more with Iran.

Meritocracies are great when they aren't being abused by corruption, however show me a meritocracy anywhere in the world that isn't.

Respectfully

China considers industries as part of politics. But there is no corruption when it comes to selecting intelligent people into CPC or other examinations. Chinese industry is fully managed by CPC and even the housing is provided by CPC. This means that when China decides that some coal mines is to be shut, they can immediately arrange the coal mine workers alternate employment in some nearby toy factory or construction site. Since all industries are part of government, there is no hassle of losing jobs or getting homeless. Chinese government provides jobs to all those willing to work and due to complete centralisation, there is no hassle of job interviews or applications etc. This centralisation can't be called corruption. It is simply their system. In China, Economy = Politics.

I am speaking of meritocracy in politics and that is definitely maintained. There is significant secrecy so as to ensure that foreigners are not able to gain information, but the charges of corruption is incorrect. There is less corruption in China than in USA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

This means that when China decides that some coal mines is to be shut, they can immediately arrange the coal mine workers alternate employment in some nearby toy factory or construction site.

So these workers have all the required skill sets and training to just swap and change roles at the drop of a hat? Sounds like a recipe for disaster or at best inefficiency to me. Health and safety issues must surely come into play, although having visited hundreds of different factories this doesn't seem an important issue in China. Somewhat ironic when the state is supposed to look after the workers.

If you honestly believe there is no corruption in China and local government politics then frankly we are never going to agree as you must be myopic.

Have you ever been there?

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.