Papillon

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On 12/6/2019 at 3:52 AM, Papillon said:

To clarify, I obviously am not expecting an answer to the title of the piece, that is intended as pure sarcasm, and I obviously appreciate that with some regard the future of the planet may be affected by some of these matters, but I do wish simply to gather all opinion here. 

For your consideration:

The Moral Case for Decoupling from China

 

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9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Jan, I love the creativity of your thinking process. I am assuming that you think that rapeseed (canola) has more potential for biofuel than soybeans. I have no idea. Can you tell me why it would be preferable? The same question applies to ethanol from corn. The part left after producing ethanol is used as a protein supplement and whole corn can be used for fattening cattle. 

I love your idea of adding glycerine to fuel pellets, but they would have to be handled with care and might be too dangerous to use in pellet stoves. I don't know what the flash point is however. Glycerine might be a great fuel to just add to fireplaces as a starting block however.

Ron, as to your questions regarding soybean as a biofuel:  I did not examine this issue as there is no collapsed market (yet) for soybeans.  The problem facing US and Canadian Midwest farmers is that they planted a lot of acreage into canola specifically to meet demand from China for the seed, which the Chinese buyers then process into the oil  (for cooking oil) and the "meal," which they apparently use directly for pig feed.  Now when the Chinese proceed to effectively ban US and Canadian canola seed from import, as part of their trade-war ideas, and go buy the stuff from Australia and apparently Eastern Europe, then the US/Canada farmers are left in the lurch. 

Can the land be re-planted with "something else"?  Presumably, yes, and I anticipate the soybeans, wheat and corn are candidates.  Soybeans are likely at this point an over-supplied commodity and pricing will be under pressure, so that is not a great alternative.  Can soy be converted readily into motor fuels?  I don't know the technical details on this, not having examined the structure, so someone else should chime in on that. What we do know is that (1) there are mountains of unsold canola out there, and (2) canola can be easily pressed into the oil and the meal residue, and markets can be found for both.

If you flood the markets with the refined canola oil, the cooking grade, then the farmers make no money, so that is not a great idea.  That leaves finding yet another market for the oil, and its use as a bio-fuel comes to mind.  And fortunately there is quite a lot of technical information out there, all done on used cooking oils, and corn oils ["Mazola"] and canola oils are source materials for used oils for conversion.  The canola oils are attractive in that they have a high heat flash-point, so that makes them interesting for engine use. 

As to alcohol from corn, that seems to be unrealistic as the energy inputs to make the alcohol are greater than the energy contained in the alcohol available upon burning.  It seems to be more a farmer subsidy than anything else; i.e. a political boondoggle.   Cheers.

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9 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I love your idea of adding glycerine to fuel pellets, but they would have to be handled with care and might be too dangerous to use in pellet stoves. I don't know what the flash point is however. Glycerine might be a great fuel to just add to fireplaces as a starting block however.

The auto-ignition temp of glycerine is 370 degrees C.  This is plenty high and you can handle it safely in stoves or furnaces.  Cheers. 

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3 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

For your consideration:

The Moral Case for Decoupling from China

 

Thank you for providing that cogent analysis of the realities of Communist China. 

The Communists execute some 6,000 of their citizens yearly, and yes, many are shot while on a gurney, ready for immediate organ carving-out.  You have to wonder if the organs are occasionally carved out of the prisoner first, then he is shot, or bled out.   Ugh. 

Communists are inherently evil.  It is the nature of the Communist mind; anyone who professes otherwise is living in a land of delusions. 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

The problem facing US and Canadian Midwest farmers is that they planted a lot of acreage into canola specifically to meet demand from China for the seed, which the Chinese buyers then process into the oil  (for cooking oil) and the "meal," which they apparently use directly for pig feed.

He's still going??  This is your fault Ron.

58 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Communists are inherently evil.  It is the nature of the Communist mind; anyone who professes otherwise is living in a land of delusions. 

Jan I'm getting a little tired of you beating round the bush.

@Papillon , I believe Jan will be 'voting' for USA ... just a weird feeling in my bones.

Edited by Guest

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17 hours ago, Papillon said:

I could not agree more sir. The title of the piece was somewhat sarcastic and, as you hint at, there are so many categories we could name that we would be here for years. My intention in all honesty was for the conversation to maybe become more factual in the historic sense, as there are many knowledgeable people here it seems.What I mean is economically, militarily, governmentally, architecturally ... take your pick really sir. I would like to know many of these facts and views from both sides of the argument, and therefore the 'current' news such as trade disputes can by definition be added to newer threads as news arises, whereas this thread is maybe more the 'historical and factual' one. Maybe it is easier to word it in that way sir. 

I am obviously not expecting some rather grand answer of who won at the finale. As I say the intention was rather more the historical comparisons of these two great nations, for example upto the year 2000 at most, whereas this point in time upto the present day can be maybe confined to the other current day threads as it were. I trust this clarifies sir. 

I am very interested in China but am really not very knowledgeable about it. I do know that it is an ancient culture of great magnitude and incorporates several subcultures, religions, and languages or dialects. The Han Chinese are the dominant culture.

What you propose is very interesting, and it will be interesting to see how it works out on this site. 

 

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(edited)

On 12/7/2019 at 2:59 AM, Ward Smith said:

 

Yes now is the time for comparison with China:

In 2012 China had 441 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

In 2018 China had 1,058 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

On average they add 103 longer tunnels a year.

China will have best physical infrastructure of all countries in less than 10 years (at present Japan is still better).

But Japan will remain best in developed countries category, since China is still a developing country.

 

When an earthquake hits, which tunnel would you rather be in? One in Seattle or one in China? Ask the (dead) schoolchildren in Schezuan province, whose government bureaucrats were bribed to look the other way while totally substandard building materials and methods were used building their schools. The plutocrats have never returned, their "constituents" will kill them on sight. You think you know China, and corruption? You know nothing.  "

 

The topic that really interests me is hegemony conflict China vs US with the following aspects:

- Generally the issue of current hegemony conflict between US and China.

- How changing hegemony impacts opinions of citizens from : country loosing hegemon status, country gaining hegemon status, third countries ? How opinions of citizens impact terminal stage of intensity of hegemony conflict ?

- How current high pace of hegemony change in comparison to latest change impacts opinions of citizens and possible terminal intensity of conflict ?

- Understanding pecularities of Chinese economy: size, speed of change, meritocracy vs dictatorship, diversity of provinces.

 

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

- When China somehow has 1,058 road tunnels longer than Seattle tunnel, @Ward Smith you refer to really tragic but I think mostly unrelated events. At present China has 5,500 road tunnels longer than 1,000 meters (or 1,100 yards as I am aware that some tribes, mainly in Amazon, still do not use metric system), but in the last 20 years none of them colapsed. It would be the news of the year.

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

- US certainly won trade war, when its effects still could not be seen in major US or Chinese data prints, and has only minuscule effect on both countries foreign trade numbers (effects of tariffs on overall Chinese or United States exports or imports is less than 1.5% for each of the 4 numbers).

Edited by Marcin
typo
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2 hours ago, Marcin said:

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

Marcin, I'll wait to see what happens in the U.S. 2020 elections.  With the U.S. economy booming, and U.S. trade deals international trade agreements being restructured to a more level playing field, I believe Trump will get re-elected in a landslide.

Meanwhile, I'll wait to see what happens in China's next elections.  Oh wait...

Meanwhile,

20191208_070952.thumb.jpg.5e369e333758e00cd6ccb91e563af72a.jpg

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(edited)

On 12/8/2019 at 9:38 AM, Marcin said:

rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.

Very well put sir, and the lack of responses is rather notable with respect. Indeed the only response is an immediate 'whataboutism' in comparing US elections to China's lack of elections, and nothing in particular to do with what you were addressing at all. This appears to then be followed with references to French and Canadian issues and so rather strengthens my point does it not? Nothing at all to do with America or China, just instant 'what about these countries though'? I will presume Mr Smith will be accusing of whataboutism here, however if Mr Kirkman is American then I'm sure it will not be mentioned at all?

This seems a common theme here and the sarcastic reason I even began this thread. Any criticism of the US seems to be attacked as though they live in a wonderland but it is perfectly fine to attack or compare with other nations. It is notable also that the user @Jabbar has referenced on several occasions that the American justice system is dead. Oddly this has not been addressed whatsoever sir, presumably as it distracts from the 'criticise China' narrative, the seemingly inherent whataboutism and the inability for America to consider their own domestic problems.

Marcin, I very much appreciate your detail here and asked for the thread to become more of a historical one, but it seems it will always make its way somehow to the trade war or future elections so I'm not sure I wil bother any longer. Apparently the majority of threads being about American insecurities with regard to China is not enough and we need one more. Indeed the entire forum seems to be some form of whataboutism I'm afraid to say. 

Finally you will also note that even the apparent bot is labelled as Chinese instantly, confirming the 'us and them' mentality of some users here. It seems if someone disagrees then they must instantly be Chinese, as who could possibly question the mighty America apart from a Chinese citizen?! The arrogance is rather evident and quite laughable. Respectfully Marcin, and thankyou again for your valued input, Papillon. 

Edited by Papillon
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4 hours ago, Papillon said:

Very well put sir, and the lack of responses is rather notable with respect. Indeed the only response is an immediate 'whataboutism' in comparing US elections to China's lack of elections, and nothing in particular to do with what you were addressing at all. This appears to then be followed with references to French and Canadian issues and so rather strengthens my point does it not? Nothing at all to do with America or China, just instant 'what about these countries though'? I will presume Mr Smith will be accusing of whataboutism here, however if Mr Kirkman is American then I'm sure it will not be mentioned at all?

Yep, I'm American.  As opposed to "British" or "English" (although British English is basically redundant).

 

Quote

This seems a common theme here and the sarcastic reason I even began this thread. Any criticism of the US seems to be attacked as though they live in a wonderland but it is perfectly fine to attack or compare with other nations. It is notable also that the user @Jabbar has referenced on several occasions that the American justice system is dead. Oddly this has not been addressed whatsoever sir, presumably as it distracts from the 'criticise China' narrative, the seemingly inherent whataboutism and the inability for America to consider their own domestic problems.

Please do feel free to criticise the U.S.

 

Quote

Marcin, I very much appreciate your detail here and asked for the thread to become more of a historical one, but it seems it will always make its way somehow to the trade war or future elections so I'm not sure I wil bother any longer. Apparently the majority of threads being about American insecurities with regard to China is not enough and we need one more. Indeed the entire forum seems to be some form of whataboutism I'm afraid to say. 

The "entire forum" is a glorious mish mash of oil & gas and geopolitics and humor by some people who are in the energy industy.   I happen to start a lot of theads.  Anyone else is free to do so as well, and I heartily encourage it.

 

Quote

Finally you will also note that even the apparent bot is labelled as Chinese instantly, confirming the 'us and them' mentality of some users here. It seems if someone disagrees then they must instantly be Chinese, as who could possibly question the mighty America apart from a Chinese citizen?! The arrogance is rather evident and quite laughable. Respectfully Marcin, and thankyou again for your valued input, Papillon. 

Our pet AI bot here, along with its human handler, is an acquired taste of non sequitors, arguing with a brick wall, and general amusement.  Lately I happen to pay attention with when the human handler feels compelled to respond or interject in place of the AI bot.  The bot's non sequitors are a waste of time, but its human handler is much more intriguing.  If you feel the human handler of the bot is *not* Chinese, I would welcome your theories on where he  / she / it is from.

 

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2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Please do feel free to criticise the U.S.

How long do you have sir? 

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

If you feel the human handler of the bot is *not* Chinese, I would welcome your theories on where he  / she / it is from.

He could literally be from any nation on the planet sir and quite possibly just within the USA but he has differing views. The fact that it is instantly assumed he is Chinese, purely because he does not agree with the pro US / pro Republican views of others, speaks volumes of the bias of users here. His differing views are a trivial detail in comparison in all honesty. With respect, Papillon. 

Edited by Papillon
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11 minutes ago, Papillon said:

How long do you have sir? 

Haha gold!

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37 minutes ago, Papillon said:

How long do you have sir? 

He could literally be from any nation on the planet sir and quite possibly just within the USA but he has differing views. The fact that it is instantly assumed he is Chinese, purely because he does not agree with the pro US / pro Republican views of others, speaks volumes of the racial bias of users here. His differing views are a trivial detail in comparison in all honesty. With respect, Papillon. 

Since you are new to this forum, are you aware that I have been married to a Chinese Malaysian for over 20 years?

 

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26 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Are you aware that I have been married to a Chinese Malaysian for over 20 years?

Funnily enough sir I was not aware of this. My psychic powers appear a little off today. With respect sir, I am not suggesting you are racist, far from it, I apologise wholeheartedly if it came across in that manner. You are taking the words 'racial bias' the wrong way though if I may say so. It was a reference to the instant references to China at all to be honest and not solely addressed at yourself by any means, or indeed a suggestion you took issue with the Chinese people. I hope that is clear sir, genuinely.

Would you atleast accept my point that this person does not necessarily reside in China though? That was literally all I meant by the bias sir, it instantly goes to he must be in China, and as they are a different race, I used the term 'racial bias'. I trust this clarifies, again my apologies if you read it how I did not intend. Respectfully, Papillon. 

*I have removed the word 'racial' sir from the initial posting. Maybe I could change it to 'political' or 'national' - would that be more accurate and acceptable?

Edited by Papillon

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17 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Funnily enough sir I was not aware of this. My psychic powers appear a little off today. With respect sir, I am not suggesting you are racist, far from it, I apologise wholeheartedly if it came across in that manner. You are taking the words 'racial bias' the wrong way though if I may say so. It was a reference to the instant references to China at all to be honest and not solely addressed at yourself by any means, or indeed a suggestion you took issue with the Chinese people. I hope that is clear sir, genuinely.

Would you atleast accept my point that this person does not necessarily reside in China though? That was literally all I meant by the bias sir, it instantly goes to he must be in China, and as they are a different race, I used the term 'racial bias'. I trust this clarifies, again my apologies if you read it how I did not intend. Respectfully, Papillon. 

*I have removed the word 'racial' sir from the initial posting. Maybe I could change it to 'political' or 'national' - would that be more accurate and acceptable?

No worries.  Please stop apologizing, and puleeeze stop calling me 'sir'.

You make some good points, and are learning the ins and outs of the quirks of this particular forum.  For example, Nick's wife is Iranian, so when he comments about things his wife sees when visiting Iran, I tend to take note because first hand accounts tend to be vastly different than media spin.

Yes, the AI bot's human handler may indeed be from a different country than China.  I noticed early on that it was a bot (there are lots of bots on chan forums, it can be easy to spot their non sequitur ramblings) but I think it was Jan who first deduced the pro-China bias inherent in the bot's postings. 

Also, it remains amusing to me that the bot has so far not denied that it is a bot, despite it being called out repeatedly by numerous people here. 

Also, dissent is not the same as spin.  The bot spins.

Back over to you.

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9 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I noticed early on that it was a bot (there are lots of bots on chan forums, it can be easy to spot their non sequitur ramblings) but I think it was Jan who first deduced the pro-China bias inherent in the bot's postings. 

Okay fair enough, although I am rather curious sir how you tell these bots from somebody who is merely argumentative as it were? If it revolves around maybe odd nonsensical language used or their biases, then I can maybe understand a little easier, but for example what would be the difference if I read Mr Plant's posts, or DayTrader's posts, and said ''oh this is clearly a pro UK bot'' ? Do you see what I mean sir? I guess what I'm asking is what are the tell tale signs? 

14 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nick's wife is Iranian

Would this be 'NickW' sir?

15 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Also, it remains amusing to me that the bot has so far not denied that it is a bot, despite it being called out repeatedly by numerous people here. 

True, I have also noticed this, although in fairness sir if he did deny it you would not believe him anyway, so why would he bother?

17 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

puleeeze stop calling me 'sir'.

Fair enough s.... Tom.

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9 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Okay fair enough, although I am rather curious sir how you tell these bots from somebody who is merely argumentative as it were? If it revolves around maybe odd nonsensical language used or their biases, then I can maybe understand a little easier, but for example what would be the difference if I read Mr Plant's posts, or DayTrader's posts, and said ''oh this is clearly a pro UK bot'' ? Do you see what I mean sir? I guess what I'm asking is what are the tell tale signs? 

A bit hard for me to explain, since I doubt that you frequent Chan forums where bots can outnumber the humans.  I'm not going to link any of the 4chan or 8chan (8kun) URLs here as they are severely NSFW. but if you want to get your feet wet, try Googling 4chans /pol/ (politically incorrect).  Be warned, chan forums are highly offensive, but can also be very funny.

9 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Would this be 'NickW' sir?

True, I have also noticed this, although in fairness sir if he did deny it you would not believe him anyway, so why would he bother?

Fair enough s.... Tom.

Yes, NickW

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27 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

if I read Mr Plant's posts, or DayTrader's posts, and said ''oh this is clearly a pro UK bot'' ? Do you see what I mean sir? I guess what I'm asking is what are the tell tale signs? 

We’re both pro UK bots first invented by Winston Churchill and then put to work under Maggie Thatcher

one day we’ll rule the world!

oh wait we’ve done that already😂

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Sorry that was a quote from Papillon not Tom 

sorry Tom on my phone and it’s crap!

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Papillon I guess the difference is personality and especially a sense of humour tells real people apart from bots

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8 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Papillon I guess the difference is personality and especially a sense of humour tells real people apart from bots

americavchina.com (otherwise known as OilPrice).

(Clearly a non sequitur.)

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On 12/6/2019 at 10:22 AM, Jan van Eck said:

Within the nexus of this "national competition" one casualty has been the US (and Canada) production of canola, which the Chinese now refuse to buy in an effort to place hurt on the US agriculture sector and achieve, by inflicting trade pain, what they cannot achieve at the bargaining table.  The boycott and import-refusal of China as relates to US canola has left vast swathes of canola plant in the field with no market, and with those farmers facing financial ruin.  One response has been for Trump to declare financial aid, presumably in the form of price-support or production payments.  Yet, canola is an interesting plant, and the question arises, are there other uses for it?  Let's take a look.

Canola is known in the rest of the world as "rapeseed."  The plant grows readily, has a stalk by-product, and the pod end contains the canola seed, which is the part that is trans-shipped by bulk freighter to the customer, who then presses the seed to extract the oil.  Canola oil is superb for use as a cooking oil and basically all of the output is used for that purpose.  The left-over seed material is known in that industry as "meal" and is rich in protein, and typically used for direct feed to livestock.  It is a premium feed for that purpose, so the by-product has quite a bit of added value. 

Keep in mind that some 20 years ago there was no organized market in the USA for canola, and the product was not grown, at least not in anny quantity.  The entire market, and its production in the US, is responsive to Chinese demand. Canola is thus a classic "substitute good" for US Midwest farmers, where land typically used for corn or wheat is re-planted with canola, more profitable for the sale to the Chinese. In a sense, the entire market is an artificial one, as there were no natural customers for US canola.  World supply came typically from Australia and parts of Europe, especially Eastern Europe, I think Ukraine.  But, Chinese demand for better diets and thus more cooking oils exploded the demand for canola, and the US growers eagerly responded. 

Faced with mountains of unsold, and unsalable, canola seed in the US, the question arises:  what can we do with the stuff?  And a tantalizing prospect arises.  I assume that the pressing operation to manufacture the canola oil is a mundane industrial process and can be readily duplicated.  I would doubt that seed-pressing is an occult art, it is likely quite mature technology at this point world-wide.  OK, so now we set up seed-pressing inside the USA and we develop this vast lake of canola oil  (the meal part being sold to livestock ranches and pig farms, for a nice profit of course).  

It turns out that canola oil is a great feedstock for the production of diesel fuel, or "bio-diesel."  Already there are these installations that take used cooking oil and refine the stuff to create diesel, then used to run local buses.Well, if used oil works, why not fresh oil?  The stumbling block to using bio-diesel is that the manufacture of the diesel results in the production of glycerin, a thick fat material that will clog up fuel lines, especially if the temperature drops and the glycerin congeals. So, efforts are directed towards the removal of the glycerin, and to no surprise as some 10% to 20% by weight of the canola oil will result in glycerin in conventional extraction methods, the resale price of glycerin has collapsed, and the material is today treated as a waste product. 

Can glycerin have a useful "home," become a product with its own value?  That is an interesting question:  I suspect it can, possibly as a fuel enhancer for stationary power plants or home-heating fireplaces.  I postulate that wood log splits can be soaked in the stuff, and it would burn nicely.  Possibly wood pellets can be soaked in liquid glycerin and again this would boost the btu output of pellets in direct burning.  The glycerin results from converting that canola oil with methyl alcohol, or "methanol," of which there is lots and lots in America available on the cheap, itself manufactured in special methanol plants from corn.  The methanol reactions result in the formation of glycerin, and there is currently no industrial pathway for canola conversion without methanol.

Yet, interesting research is being don on distilling bio-diesel from canola without the production of glycerin.  One approach is the use of dimethyl carbonate as a catalyst, and that protocol apparently dramatically reduces the amount of glycerin as a by-product.  Another takes it a step further and adds a preparation consisting of active sodium methoxide catalyst prepared by crystallization, in the form of a finely-ground powder, which has the tantalizing result of producing virtually no glycerin at all.  Can either of these reaction pathways be developed into robust industrial processes to fully convert canola oil directly into diesel  (or jetfuel)?  

I bet they can.  I bet they will.  And once that happens, whoever is in there "first" with gobs of capital to set it up on a seriously large scale will clean up.  Why?  Because a pure, clean bio-diesel is unbeatable as an engine fuel, and as a heating fuel. There are technical reasons for this which I shall avoid discussing for brevity, but I see this as a real winner.  And best of all, it gets the US farmer out from underneath in a great big hurry, and provides far more income than selling the seeds in bulk to the Chinese.  

Does the USA need China as a customer - for anything?  And the answer is No.  The USA is quite capable of finding other markets, or planting other crops, or creating new markets and products from its existing stable, and totally excluding the Chinese. What it will impact is the US oil markets, in that it will provide a farm product as direct substitution for a middle distillate.  Yet, and again speculating, if the product substitution is directly against imported oil, it does not whack the US shale producers so much as depress US imports of ME or African oils.  Either way, I predict that a successful development of the redeployment of canola oil into biodiesel is going to make some entrepreneurs vastly rich, and take market share away from producers  and distillers in the US Midwest and Gulf Coast. And that would be an interesting re-alignment. 

 

The oil can be burned in a diesel engine without much modification at all.  You can even run used deep fryer grease with limited cleanup  - so might as well make some freedom fries before burning that canola oil in your big truck.  :)

Glycerin has numerous applications.  The most entertaining is nitration with HNO3 and catalytic H2SO4  BOOM!

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On 12/8/2019 at 1:38 AM, Marcin said:
Yes now is the time for comparison with China:

In 2012 China had 441 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

In 2018 China had 1,058 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

On average they add 103 longer tunnels a year.

China will have best physical infrastructure of all countries in less than 10 years (at present Japan is still better).

But Japan will remain best in developed countries category, since China is still a developing country.

 

 

 

When an earthquake hits, which tunnel would you rather be in? One in Seattle or one in China? Ask the (dead) schoolchildren in Schezuan province, whose government bureaucrats were bribed to look the other way while totally substandard building materials and methods were used building their schools. The plutocrats have never returned, their "constituents" will kill them on sight. You think you know China, and corruption? You know nothing.  "

 

 

 

The topic that really interests me is hegemony conflict China vs US with the following aspects:

 

- Generally the issue of current hegemony conflict between US and China.

 

- How changing hegemony impacts opinions of citizens from : country loosing hegemon status, country gaining hegemon status, third countries ? How opinions of citizens impact terminal stage of intensity of hegemony conflict ?

 

- How current high pace of hegemony change in comparison to latest change impacts opinions of citizens and possible terminal intensity of conflict ?

 

- Understanding pecularities of Chinese economy: size, speed of change, meritocracy vs dictatorship, diversity of provinces.

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

 

- When China somehow has 1,058 road tunnels longer than Seattle tunnel, @Ward Smith you refer to really tragic but I think mostly unrelated events. At present China has 5,500 road tunnels longer than 1,000 meters (or 1,100 yards as I am aware that some tribes, mainly in Amazon, still do not use metric system), but in the last 20 years none of them colapsed. It would be the news of the year.

 

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

 

- US certainly won trade war, when its effects still could not be seen in major US or Chinese data prints, and has only minuscule effect on both countries foreign trade numbers (effects of tariffs on overall Chinese or United States exports or imports is less than 1.5% for each of the 4 numbers).

 

Yes now is the time for comparison with China:

In 2012 China had 441 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

In 2018 China had 1,058 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

On average they add 103 longer tunnels a year.

China will have best physical infrastructure of all countries in less than 10 years (at present Japan is still better).

But Japan will remain best in developed countries category, since China is still a developing country.

 

 

 

When an earthquake hits, which tunnel would you rather be in? One in Seattle or one in China? Ask the (dead) schoolchildren in Schezuan province, whose government bureaucrats were bribed to look the other way while totally substandard building materials and methods were used building their schools. The plutocrats have never returned, their "constituents" will kill them on sight. You think you know China, and corruption? You know nothing.  "

 

 

 

The topic that really interests me is hegemony conflict China vs US with the following aspects:

 

- Generally the issue of current hegemony conflict between US and China.

 

- How changing hegemony impacts opinions of citizens from : country loosing hegemon status, country gaining hegemon status, third countries ? How opinions of citizens impact terminal stage of intensity of hegemony conflict ?

 

- How current high pace of hegemony change in comparison to latest change impacts opinions of citizens and possible terminal intensity of conflict ?

 

- Understanding pecularities of Chinese economy: size, speed of change, meritocracy vs dictatorship, diversity of provinces.

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

 

- When China somehow has 1,058 road tunnels longer than Seattle tunnel, @Ward Smith you refer to really tragic but I think mostly unrelated events. At present China has 5,500 road tunnels longer than 1,000 meters (or 1,100 yards as I am aware that some tribes, mainly in Amazon, still do not use metric system), but in the last 20 years none of them colapsed. It would be the news of the year.

 

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

 

- US certainly won trade war, when its effects still could not be seen in major US or Chinese data prints, and has only minuscule effect on both countries foreign trade numbers (effects of tariffs on overall Chinese or United States exports or imports is less than 1.5% for each of the 4 numbers).

 

Sorry Marcin but for some reason the site didn't notify me you'd "pinged".

Tunnels are interesting things. The way they're constructed in the US involves highly expensive mining equipment. Seattle's was "drilled" is the best term by a machine lovingly called Big Bertha. I was involved tangentially via another website based in Seattle where we were discussing the delays, cost overruns and general bungleocracy which is Seattle. Interestingly, a "new" participant came into our discussion who I quickly ascertained was directly working for the project, which he gave away by various clues. 

One issue with the Big Bertha was that they needed to disassemble it's cutters every month because they had ground down to nothing. Since I knew the person actually worked for the project, I said, "Of course you're hardbanding the cutters, right"? The dead giveaway this person really worked there (he'd been denying it) was when he argued that the steel on the cutters was the best and no improvement could be had. Lol

Every person here who is involved with drilling understands the value of hardbanding. If you don't know what it is, look it up. After some argument and after others, including Boeing engineers jumped in agreeing with me, this newcomer disappeared. But amazingly Big Bertha never stopped again for a cutter change!  They'd figured it out! What was originally going to be another two years delay almost finished on time. Upon completion, this multi hundred million dollar technical marvel was cut up into scrap and discarded! 

Why go into so this? Because due to land ownership issues, roads and tunnels in the US must be constructed totally differently than in China. ALL land in China belongs to the state! You've got a problem with a road coming through your living room? They're not going to claim eminent domain and pay you fair market value for your house. They'll do whatever they like. Whatever you like is irrelevant. 

With the cheap labor available China mines tunnels. Makes a much bigger mess and likely kills quite a few miners but you'll never know about that. It does go much faster and it's ultimately cheaper. Try to mine a tunnel anywhere in the US and you'll be opposed by every NIMBY and BANANA around. New acronyms for you? 

NIMBY: Not. In. My. Backyard. 

BANANA: Build. Absolutely. Nothing. Anywhere. Near. Anything. 

Yup, we have both kinds, especially in California and other liberal leaning states. China doesn't. As for those tunnels not collapsing for twenty years, did that include the conditional in my question? Were they ever in an earthquake in those 20 years? 

 

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4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Since you are new to this forum, are you aware that I have been married to a Chinese Malaysian for over 20 years?

The thing about Tom's wife you new guys don't fully appreciate is that she was once invited to this US expat wives' Tupperware Party, and she treated herself to this neat Tupperware plastic rolling pin, the kind where you can unscrew one end and fill it up with water to make it nice and heavy.  Now when there is some argument in that kitchen she pulls out the rolling pin and whacks him on the head with it.  And that is how Chinese Malaysian women maintain the domestic tranquility.   To compensate, Tom shows up on Oilprice.   Cheers.  

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(edited)

10 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

 

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

Actually, it is  (inferior steel). 

China's big dominance is in the manufacture of rebar, the cheap stuff made from contaminated mixed scrap and used in construction to reinforce concrete.  China owns that market.   And quite a bit is also consumed inside China, in their mad push for construction of everything from apartment buildings to train viaducts.  But yes, it really is "inferior steel."

High quality tool steel is made in the USA, Germany, and England.  High quality rolled sheet is made in Ontario, Canada. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
typing error
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