Papillon

americavchina.com

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On 12/8/2019 at 7:10 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Marcin, I'll wait to see what happens in the U.S. 2020 elections.  With the U.S. economy booming, and U.S. trade deals international trade agreements being restructured to a more level playing field, I believe Trump will get re-elected in a landslide.

I suspect that Trump will decide not to run for re-election. 

If Pence runs  (and wins), then the US is in for a period of very regressive politics and policies.  Those will then dominate for at least three decades. 

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

Yup, we have both kinds, especially in California and other liberal leaning states. China doesn't. As for those tunnels not collapsing for twenty years, did that include the conditional in my question? Were they ever in an earthquake in those 20 years?

 

California needs earthquake proof tunnels, much of the world doesn't and it would just be over engineering /  needlessly more expensive.

Edited by Enthalpic

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11 hours ago, remake it said:

americavchina.com (otherwise known as OilPrice).

(Clearly a non sequitur.)

That actually made me chuckle 

Must be the handler stepping in, nice one!

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On 12/8/2019 at 9:38 AM, Marcin said:
Yes now is the time for comparison with China:

In 2012 China had 441 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

In 2018 China had 1,058 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

On average they add 103 longer tunnels a year.

China will have best physical infrastructure of all countries in less than 10 years (at present Japan is still better).

But Japan will remain best in developed countries category, since China is still a developing country.

 

 

 

When an earthquake hits, which tunnel would you rather be in? One in Seattle or one in China? Ask the (dead) schoolchildren in Schezuan province, whose government bureaucrats were bribed to look the other way while totally substandard building materials and methods were used building their schools. The plutocrats have never returned, their "constituents" will kill them on sight. You think you know China, and corruption? You know nothing.  "

 

 

 

The topic that really interests me is hegemony conflict China vs US with the following aspects:

 

- Generally the issue of current hegemony conflict between US and China.

 

- How changing hegemony impacts opinions of citizens from : country loosing hegemon status, country gaining hegemon status, third countries ? How opinions of citizens impact terminal stage of intensity of hegemony conflict ?

 

- How current high pace of hegemony change in comparison to latest change impacts opinions of citizens and possible terminal intensity of conflict ?

 

- Understanding pecularities of Chinese economy: size, speed of change, meritocracy vs dictatorship, diversity of provinces.

 

 

 

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

 

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

 

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

 

- When China somehow has 1,058 road tunnels longer than Seattle tunnel, @Ward Smith you refer to really tragic but I think mostly unrelated events. At present China has 5,500 road tunnels longer than 1,000 meters (or 1,100 yards as I am aware that some tribes, mainly in Amazon, still do not use metric system), but in the last 20 years none of them colapsed. It would be the news of the year.

 

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

 

- US certainly won trade war, when its effects still could not be seen in major US or Chinese data prints, and has only minuscule effect on both countries foreign trade numbers (effects of tariffs on overall Chinese or United States exports or imports is less than 1.5% for each of the 4 numbers).

 

Yes now is the time for comparison with China:

In 2012 China had 441 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

In 2018 China had 1,058 tunnels longer than Seattle Tunnel.

On average they add 103 longer tunnels a year.

China will have best physical infrastructure of all countries in less than 10 years (at present Japan is still better).

But Japan will remain best in developed countries category, since China is still a developing country.

 

 

 

When an earthquake hits, which tunnel would you rather be in? One in Seattle or one in China? Ask the (dead) schoolchildren in Schezuan province, whose government bureaucrats were bribed to look the other way while totally substandard building materials and methods were used building their schools. The plutocrats have never returned, their "constituents" will kill them on sight. You think you know China, and corruption? You know nothing.  "

 

 

 

The topic that really interests me is hegemony conflict China vs US with the following aspects:

 

- Generally the issue of current hegemony conflict between US and China.

 

- How changing hegemony impacts opinions of citizens from : country loosing hegemon status, country gaining hegemon status, third countries ? How opinions of citizens impact terminal stage of intensity of hegemony conflict ?

 

- How current high pace of hegemony change in comparison to latest change impacts opinions of citizens and possible terminal intensity of conflict ?

 

- Understanding pecularities of Chinese economy: size, speed of change, meritocracy vs dictatorship, diversity of provinces.

 

 

 

My opinion is: Rise of China is too fast and has too much sudden impact on the world (but especially on major developed countries) for their citizens to adapt to this explosive type of change.

 

I also feel threatened in some way by this change.

 

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

 

- When China somehow has 1,058 road tunnels longer than Seattle tunnel, @Ward Smith you refer to really tragic but I think mostly unrelated events. At present China has 5,500 road tunnels longer than 1,000 meters (or 1,100 yards as I am aware that some tribes, mainly in Amazon, still do not use metric system), but in the last 20 years none of them colapsed. It would be the news of the year.

 

- When China produces 53% of global steel, it surely is inferior steel made in ancient steel mills.

 

- US certainly won trade war, when its effects still could not be seen in major US or Chinese data prints, and has only minuscule effect on both countries foreign trade numbers (effects of tariffs on overall Chinese or United States exports or imports is less than 1.5% for each of the 4 numbers).

 

Marcin very well put

I have stated that I have no problem with Chinese people who are always welcoming and I have no "axe to grind" either way on who will be the next hegemony. One thing is for sure it isn't going to be the UK🤣

I agree that there are a lot of reports about substandard construction in China as the below link shows

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/eight-people-dead-two-injured-in-bridge-collapse-in-china

However if you have travelled extensively through China the amount of construction work is simply mind blowing and therefore it is not really surprising some construction standards are compromised from time to time. It happens in Western countries as well, recently we had the Grenfell tower disaster in London for example, and tower blocks exactly like that still have substandard cladding and no sprinkler systems in place. Why there has been no retro fitting is beyond me, as usual the UK doesn't learn from past mistakes.

My issue has and always will be the regime that controls the people. Chinese people are no different to anybody else they just want a better life for themselves and are willing to work very hard to achieve it. I applaud that attitude but please let them be more aware of the world around them.

I am not picking on China but the thread is about USA v China so I'm trying for once to stay on topic. There are many regimes I do not agree with Iran, Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Myanmar to name a few.

Ward does make valid points regarding land ownership in the West compared to China and about health and safety which is almost non-existent in China at present. Again China are far from alone here , see Qatar world cup link below

https://observatoryihr.org/news_item/labour-conditions-in-qatar-could-result-in-as-many-as-4000-deaths-before-the-start-of-the-2022-world-cup/

 

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13 hours ago, Papillon said:

Okay fair enough, although I am rather curious sir how you tell these bots from somebody who is merely argumentative as it were? If it revolves around maybe odd nonsensical language used or their biases, then I can maybe understand a little easier, but for example what would be the difference if I read Mr Plant's posts, or DayTrader's posts, and said ''oh this is clearly a pro UK bot'' ? Do you see what I mean sir? I guess what I'm asking is what are the tell tale signs? 

See this thread

As a moderator I "unhid" the bot's responses, for others to learn from.  Although I seem unable to make my own update "unhidden".

20191210_052740.thumb.jpg.f8ab24782a7537400659eebf8e5ae258.jpg

 

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56 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

That actually made me chuckle 

Must be the handler stepping in, nice one!

I agree sir, on occasion I find him most amusing and although I have had run ins with this person his opinions are actually very valid some of the time. Did you perchance notice his comment about Wikipedia and 'well this must be true'? This is still what confuses me a little about this bot issue, the fact the 'handler' as you say clearly has a sense of humour.

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

she treated herself to this neat Tupperware plastic rolling pin, the kind where you can unscrew one end and fill it up with water

As I am new to this forum sir, were you aware that my wife also owns said rolling pin?

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20 minutes ago, Papillon said:

As I am new to this forum sir, were you aware that my wife also owns said rolling pin?

Haha does she use it on you like Tom's wife?

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

No hard feelings, but I think that for you @Ward Smith @Jan van Eck@Tom Kirkman@ronwagn@Rob Plant rise of China also causes a lot of different reactions, one of prime of them is outright denial of some hard facts, underestimation of Chinese capabilities, some blind faith in the constant global importance of United States.  It is understandable and human.

Readers:  this paragraph was originally said by @Marcin,  then copied (above) by @Rob Plant.   It contains an interesting thread line, and I would comment further.

The Chinese have this characteristic of being fabulous copiers. Back in the 1930's, the United States shipped some steam locomotives to China to help in their fight against the Japanese invaders.  I believe these were Type 2-8-2 Heavy Mikados, a freight locomotive developed back around 1918 when the USA had nationalized all the railroads for the WWI war effort, and developed the "Heavy Mic" as their standard machine  (the Heavy Mic having larger boilers and more steam output, thus with larger steam cylinders could develop more tractive effort for heavier trains, good for mountain pulling the West, and thus well suited to Chinese efforts in their mountain terrain).  [It was an evolution of the "Light Mic," naturally.]

Now the Chinese proceeded to take apart one of those locomotives, which ran on coal  (of which there was plenty in areas of China) and exactly duplicated them, right down to the US threads on the bolts and nuts.  It was a totally perfect duplicate, just as if it came straight from the Lima, ALCO, or Baldwin Locomotive Works.  You cannot tell them apart.  And the Chinese duplicates ran perfectly, just as the American designers (with lots of accumulated locomotive experience) had figured out. 

Now what this tells you is that the Chinese are great at duplicating.  Send them anything and they will be able to exactly copy it.  That is a peculiarly Chinese capability, I have not seen that anywhere else in the world.  You cannot "underestimate Chinese capabilities" when you see, first-hand and in actual steel, the results of this Chinese duplication.  I have seen (and ridden in) an Exact Chinese copy of the famous US Heavy Mikado, and I can tell you the Chinese did a great job.  And yes, the Chinese after the War have sold the Mikado locomotive copies back to the Americans!

Edited by Jan van Eck
typing error
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6 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

use it on you like Tom's wife?

Yes sometimes, but Tom's wife has never hit me sir, as I've not had the pleasure of meeting her.

If I did there is every chance she would also however.

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Just now, Papillon said:

Yes sometimes, but Tom's wife has never hit me sir, as I've not had the pleasure of meeting her.

If I did there is every chance she would also however.

And well deserved, the whack would be!

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The Chinese have this characteristic of being fabulous copiers

This is very true and has been stated before on other threads.

Their lack of invention and innovation is startling however, especially when you factor in the size of the population. I think this is a trait of the regime they live under as new ideas aren't at the forefront of their thinking. As you say Jan they are the worlds best copiers by a country mile so I guess their logic is why invent when we can just copy it. However surely this holds them back as a nation and to jump on Marcin's favourite topic of hegemony, does this not threaten this long term.

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3 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

And well deserved, the whack would be!

Was the intention here sir to sound like Yoda? For the 'racial bias' comment then it is quite possible she would have bought two rolling pins yes.

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2 minutes ago, Papillon said:

Was the intention here sir to sound like Yoda?

But of course.   Now you know why they call me "The Legend." 

 

3 minutes ago, Papillon said:

For the 'racial bias' comment then it is quite possible she would have bought two rolling pins yes.

Nah.  She'll just roll her eyes and sigh in exasperation.  Wives are like that.  You get whacked if you try to steal some cookies still sitting on the baking sheet, cooling from the oven......

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1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said:

She'll just roll her eyes and sigh in exasperation.  Wives are like that.

You don't know my wife sir. Trust me with the rolling pin.

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5 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

their logic is why invent when we can just copy it. However surely this holds them back as a nation and to jump on Marcin's favourite topic of hegemony, does this not threaten this long term.

Where you are now seeing this is in the Chinese "big push" to develop their own aircraft industry, to build the C-919 as an alternative to both Boeing 737-MAXX and Airbus 320.   Airframe construction technology is getting far advanced, particularly with the use of carbon-fiber textile lay-up.  Chinese construction thus lags behind, as long as these techniques are kept out of their hands.  Meanwhile the C-919 project is far behind schedule, and it seems that nobody outside the Chinese carriers are buying it, so that tells you that even w2ith price concessions it fails the test of the market.  And yes, that inability to forge ahead is what holds back Chinese hegemony.

I also think, just my thoughts, that the Chinese penchant of bullying their small neighbors is going to backfire.  Those countries are all watching the spectacle play out in Hong Kong, and The Donald is not stepping away from the plate with his signing of the Hong Kong Solidarity Bill.  Note, incidentally, how Canada carefully stays away from any support of the democracy movement there; the governing Liberal Party is all in love with the Chinese (and especially their agricultural buying power, even though Canola is currently being barred from import).   Canada, despite its crowing of its commitment to plurality and democracy, is a hollow shill when it comes to taking a principled stand.  They did not even do that in Rwanda, having abandoned their own Colonel and troops there, if memory serves me right.  Basically, a nation of wussies. 

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15 hours ago, Papillon said:

Okay fair enough, although I am rather curious sir how you tell these bots from somebody who is merely argumentative as it were? If it revolves around maybe odd nonsensical language used or their biases, then I can maybe understand a little easier, but for example what would be the difference if I read Mr Plant's posts, or DayTrader's posts, and said ''oh this is clearly a pro UK bot'' ? Do you see what I mean sir? I guess what I'm asking is what are the tell tale signs? 

 

 

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

See this thread

As a moderator I "unhid" the bot's responses, for others to learn from.  Although I seem unable to make my own update "unhidden".

DOH!  I forgot to unhide the entire thread.  While I could see the thread, non-moderators still could not see it.  (Note to self, please engage brain before hitting the submit reply button.)

Thread unhidden now.  Please feel free to peruse the word salad of the AI bot in the thread, and see if you can notice the difference between a human and an Artificial Intelligence bot (short for robot).

 

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9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I have stated that I have no problem with Chinese people who are always welcoming and I have no "axe to grind" either way on who will be the next hegemony. One thing is for sure it isn't going to be the UK

PFFF typical Remainer attitude.

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8 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

 Canada, despite its crowing of its commitment to plurality and democracy, is a hollow shill when it comes to taking a principled stand. 

The USA is famous for the principled stands it took in WWI & WWII in reaping the economic gains before deciding to to intervene or be drawn in, and have continued this excellent decision making model into lesser wars such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan where their apparent good is so obvious. 

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3 minutes ago, remake it said:

The USA is famous for the principled stands it took in WWI & WWII in reaping the economic gains before deciding to to intervene or be drawn in, and have continued this excellent decision making model into lesser wars such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan where their apparent good is so obvious. 

For those of you who want to know what a Chinese AI Bot looks like, complete with trained propaganda handler, here you go, folks. 

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5 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

For those of you who want to know what a Chinese AI Bot looks like, complete with trained propaganda handler, here you go, folks. 

The many baseless assumptions of posters here seem to be a ploy to avoid addressing the shortcomings of their remarks and instead divert the topic so as to hide the fact it was their bias which was being called out.

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27 minutes ago, remake it said:

The many baseless assumptions of posters here seem to be a ploy to avoid addressing the shortcomings of their remarks and instead divert the topic so as to hide the fact it was their bias which was being called out.

Fine, Mr. Bot Handler, then take your AI algorithm program and go play with it somewhere else.  Solves that problem. 

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5 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Fine, Mr. Bot Handler, then take your AI algorithm program and go play with it somewhere else.  Solves that problem. 

Back to front logic as the issue you refuse to address is your bias and the threads at this site show others have pointed this out to you without success perhaps because you are locked into the Western stereotype that cannot come to grips with a culture many thousands of years old underpinned by a successful integration of Daoism and Confucianism which focus more strongly on a quality of life rather than monetary wealth.

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38 minutes ago, remake it said:

Back to front logic as the issue you refuse to address is your bias and the threads at this site show others have pointed this out to you without success perhaps because you are locked into the Western stereotype that cannot come to grips with a culture many thousands of years old underpinned by a successful integration of Daoism and Confucianism which focus more strongly on a quality of life rather than monetary wealth.

I am just a biased Western stereotypical type person. So please educate me on which part of the thousand years old society runs the reeducation/forced labor camps and force harvests organs from "convicts"? Would that be the Daoism or Confucianism portion of this wonderful society? 

Please keep the response simple... I am a Southern Bubba Western stereotype. ;)

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43 minutes ago, remake it said:

a successful integration of Daoism and Confucianism which focus more strongly on a quality of life rather than monetary wealth.

Ya gotta love the crap this Bot Handler shovels out at you, including this praise of ancient China, to be revered by genuflecting at the feet of Mao himself.  Yup, great quality of life:   ordered out of your house with zero compensation as the political hacks make money selling it for demolition, for some new factory, road or reservoir;  turning the great rivers into dead cesspools just to glory in the Three Gorges Dam;  being "tried" for some crime like tax evasion with a 99.97% conviction rate, no jury, and death by gunshot to the back of the head, then (or before) having your kidneys and liver cut out, for bestowal on some Party bigwig;  being followed around by facial recognition software and given social conformity scores, in order to qualify for a passport,   yup, just lovely country, great historical tradition, you are a landless serf forever, you eat whatever the Party says you can eat, you sleep where and with who the Party says you can, you shit out in the fields because hey no toilet for you, the Party tells you if you can reproduce, and you can go live next to some toxic waste dump as heavy metals are mined for solar panels.  Yup, lovely country.  Something to really look forward to.   What a total crock of shit this Bot Handler fellow is. Unbelievable. 

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