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2019 US Refinery Inputs Continue to Decline in Comparison to 2018 Data

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As US GDP continues to drift lower in the 4th quarter US refinery run rates continue to be depressed. In this discussion I will present data from November 2018 to be compared to November of 2019. Using EIA's refinery inputs starting 11/09/2018 every week in Nov 2019 had a lower total as compared to Nov 2018 totals.

   US GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2018 was 3.1%. US GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2019 is currently being estimated at 2.0%. This slowdown in the economy is even more prevalent in domestic crude demand by US refineries. For the month of Nov 2018 the refinery run rate averaged 17.082 mbd. For Nov 2019 the refinery run rate dropped 711 kbd. This is 4.16% decline for Nov 2019 as compared to Nov 2018. This is almost 5 million less barrels of oil per week. This figure by itself indicates the US is already in a recession, but US crude exports are part of the equation also. 

  US crude exports rose from an average of 2.416 mbd to 3.069 mbd. An increase of 653 kbd. 

  Using 2018 November demand total of 17.082 + 2.416 = 19.498 mbd to compare d to November 2019's total of 16.371 + 3.069 = 19.444 mbd or a decline of 58 kbd. A decline of .3%. 

    On November 30,2018 US crude inventories were 443 million barrels. On November 29,2019 US crude inventories were 447 million barrels.

   Using the price of WTI on each week-ending date by EIA I attained an average monthly price of ( $60.19 + 56.46 + 50.42 + 50.93 )÷4 = $54.50 for Nov 2018. The price for Nov 2019 was calculated as follows:  ( $57.24 + 57.72 + 57.77 + 55.17 ) ÷ 4 = 56.98.  WTI's current price is $59.18. That is 8.56% higher than Nov 2018 average price of $54.50 when supply and demand was almost identical to now.


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