Tom Kirkman

WTO is effectively neutered. Trump *already* won the trade war against China and WTO is helpless to intervene

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27 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

As I read the other day, there's only one judge left at the WTO.  Is that correct?  If so, it is finished.  Ball taken home.

Dan, filibustering, causing procedural gridlock, is the way big countries sometimes pressure global community but it rarely works like you commented above.

If US one day will come to similarly bright idea and close New York UN headquarters, UN will not be finished, it will just move to Geneva or Beijing.

The same is with recent US action to paralyze WTO dispute mechanism. What are the scenarios possible ?

- WTO dispute mechanism paralyzed, so we dissolve WTO, 40 years of multilateral co-operation. We all go home and start 20,000+ bilateral discussions (number of bilateral relations between 200 countries), what a fun. No go.

- US is fed up with WTO and unilaterally leaves WTO. This is not Trump administration goal because otherwise it will not obstruct WTO. This move is pure isolationism and giving hegemony on plate to China. This is also against interests of other countries as WTO status will decrease. No go.

- Under US pressure US is excluded from dispute mechanism, exception for the bully. It is more important to have US in WTO totally pro forma, than outside of WTO. Most probable and beneficial for US.

(It is the same situation as with China and Paris Accord. Accord without China: 28% of global CO2 emissions looses its status).

- US just wants to obstruct and destroy WTO as the primary goal. WTO reforms, with US substantially sidelined by its new global role of choice: master of disaster. Less probable but who knows.

 

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6 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

In fairness to trump he isn't a hypocrite on that front - he openly hates the environment.

President Trump Has frequently stated his support for clean air and water etc. He is missing the issue of flaring apparently. I am sure that Rick Perry didn't serve him well on the flaring issue. He needs some pressure on that issue for sure. Saying he hates the environment comes from differences you have with him on whether the environment should be used properly or all saved in its "natural" state. I put nature in quotes because nature has always changed but many think nature has always been static and should remain so. A good example is our forestry service killing thousands of one type of owl to prevent another type of owl from taking over its territory. That issue encapsulates the insanity of some environmentalists.

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6 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Trump also says "beautiful clean coal."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmvW25iKd9M

Have you ever seen coal? #trumpLogic

 

You are right. I have to just chalk it up to politics. I hate to see coal used any more than it has to be and advocate natural gas including coal seam gas and other processes that use the methane associated with coal mining. Getting elected is the primary goal in politics and it is less than ideal. IMHO much better than having Hillary and statism however . 

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3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

As I read the other day, there's only one judge left at the WTO.  Is that correct?  If so, it is finished.  Ball taken home.

 

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6 hours ago, Marcin said:

The same is with recent US action to paralyze WTO dispute mechanism. What are the scenarios possible ?

Rather let's focus on the implications which include a wariness of less-developed nations to deal with the USA because of it's unwillingness to use the WTO as a dispute settling mechanism and a preference to prop up China through its Belt & Road initiatives which never seek a quid pro quo.

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