First of Six 2020 predictions: Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido` will not be reelected National Assembly leader, Maduro solidifies power, Russia moves in takes over Oil Industry operations , full production 12 to 18 months.

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(edited)

Chinese and Russia are emboldened in 2020 as the Democrats and DeepState try to defeat Trump instead of putting U.S. first.

Trump will be preoccupied  while China and Russia will attempt to advance their influence in theatres worldwide.

Russia is poised and ready to invest heavily in Venezuela.  They will control the production and output.  New production records within 18 months.  Not good for oil price.  

Not sure how Chevron's operations there will fare.

The rest of my six projections when I'm back on Jan. 11

Edited by Jabbar

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☺️

53 minutes ago, Jabbar said:

Chinese and Russia are emboldened in 2020 as the Democrats and DeepState try to defeat Trump instead of putting U.S. first.

Trump will be preoccupied  while China and Russia will attempt to advance their influence in theatres worldwide.

Russia is poised and ready to invest heavily in Venezuela.  They will control the production and output.  New production records within 18 months.  Not good for oil price.  

Not sure how Chevron's operations there will fare.

The rest of my six projections when I'm back on Jan. 11

I agree, with 1 explanations. There are often Chinese interests&money behind Russian facade. Russia is bad cop and China good cop in this duo. China adds 1 Russia in economic output every 2 years, they need peace&time to gain enough power.

Chinese task is to compete economically with Trump, to get his attention, and Russia to bite US here and there.

Russia is caporegime/enforcer, China is boss.

Putin has one additional task, when he wants to attack Trump, he just thanks him, just before 2020 November election he will call Trump dear friend and wish him to win. Biden would love this.

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On 12/31/2019 at 2:10 PM, Jabbar said:

Chinese and Russia are emboldened in 2020 as the Democrats and DeepState try to defeat Trump instead of putting U.S. first.

Trump will be preoccupied  while China and Russia will attempt to advance their influence in theatres worldwide.

Russia is poised and ready to invest heavily in Venezuela.  They will control the production and output.  New production records within 18 months.  Not good for oil price.  

Not sure how Chevron's operations there will fare.

The rest of my six projections when I'm back on Jan. 11

Russia has cut oil production and gave up market share to bolster oil prices. Why would Putin want Venezuelan oil on the market. This makes no sense.

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On 12/31/2019 at 3:09 PM, Marcin said:

☺️

I agree, with 1 explanations. There are often Chinese interests&money behind Russian facade. Russia is bad cop and China good cop in this duo. China adds 1 Russia in economic output every 2 years, they need peace&time to gain enough power.

Chinese task is to compete economically with Trump, to get his attention, and Russia to bite US here and there.

Russia is caporegime/enforcer, China is boss.

Putin has one additional task, when he wants to attack Trump, he just thanks him, just before 2020 November election he will call Trump dear friend and wish him to win. Biden would love this.

I would think Putin would prefer Trump over a Dem so why call Trump dear friend. So far Putin has been very quiet in his approach to Trump. I say he treats Trump with kid gloves and wants him re-elected.

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China is the country that imports the oil so is a natural ally to Iran, Venezuela and their oil. Russia is the opposite, they may sympathize with US enemies but to the point of driving oil prices down? I don’t see it.

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(edited)

6 hours ago, Boat said:

Russia has cut oil production and gave up market share to bolster oil prices. Why would Putin want Venezuelan oil on the market. This makes no sense.

Russia needs China for survival

China needs Russia for survival

China needs a lot of imported oil     for survival.

Global demand rises 1 m bbl/d a year. Even with Venezuela oil is scarse.

Control over Venezuelan Oil is very, very important for both US a d China/Russia.

You do not believe it is coincidence that US cares about democracy and human rights only in countries US wants to control, do you ?

Edited by Marcin
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(edited)

6 hours ago, Boat said:

I would think Putin would prefer Trump over a Dem so why call Trump dear friend. So far Putin has been very quiet in his approach to Trump. I say he treats Trump with kid gloves and wants him re-elected.

I do not know. On one hand Trump is obnoxious to anybody with his manners, but on the other he is dangerous as very weak and puppet of Military Industrial Complex. Look for facts, US education, infrastructure is in dire straits yet Pentagon gets higher budget every year. US has No money for such war effort.

Edited by Marcin
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6 hours ago, Boat said:

China is the country that imports the oil so is a natural ally to Iran, Venezuela and their oil. Russia is the opposite, they may sympathize with US enemies but to the point of driving oil prices down? I don’t see it.

Hegemony war is mother of all wars, hydrocarbons are most important of all resources.

US wants to prevent China access to oil when war gets bitter.

Remember how WW2 with Japan started, oil embargo.

This time it is more complicated all 3 countries nuclear but US thinks it can outsmart 2 nuclear powers in combat.

Russia just follows the money.

 

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19 minutes ago, Marcin said:

Russia needs China for survival

China needs Russia for survival

China needs a lot of imported oil     for survival.

Global demand rises 1 m bbl/d a year. Even with Venezuela oil is scarse.

Control over Venezuelan Oil is very, very important for both US a d China/Russia.

You do not believe it is coincidence that US cares about democracy and human rights only in countries US wants to control, do you ?

First of all oil is not scarce and never has been. There have been disruptions that have driven prices but as always supply fills the gap and prices drop.

The US can’t afford to control a Stone Age country like Afghanistan so Russia or China being afraid of the US is silly.

Needed for survival sounds like a Putin speech saying there are more important things going on than being in poverty.

Of course China wants cheap oil where ever it can get it including Venezuela. They import the most by a large margin. Russia loses with every drop they produce.

If you attack the US like 911 the president will get a 90% approval rating if you promise to bomb the hell out of the offenders. Human rights be dammed. You read to much silly news.

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6 hours ago, Boat said:

First of all oil is not scarce and never has been. There have been disruptions that have driven prices but as always supply fills the gap and prices drop.

The US can’t afford to control a Stone Age country like Afghanistan so Russia or China being afraid of the US is silly.

Needed for survival sounds like a Putin speech saying there are more important things going on than being in poverty.

Of course China wants cheap oil where ever it can get it including Venezuela. They import the most by a large margin. Russia loses with every drop they produce.

If you attack the US like 911 the president will get a 90% approval rating if you promise to bomb the hell out of the offenders. Human rights be dammed. You read to much silly news.

We consume hydrocarbons with the speed million times higher than it was created.

For 135 years humans has not discovered feasible alternative to hydrocarbons in transport application.

There rest of your comment I do not understand.

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Until China or Russia prove that they can sail a navy to Venezuela, no return on investment.  Better chance of this year being the year the strait of Hormuz closes.  

Venezuela opportunity cost exceeds that of Syria.  I hope American adversaries invest heavily in Venezuela.  

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