What's the Endgame Here?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Generally you go to war for a reason. So what's the reason? What is the US hoping to accomplish with further expenditures in the Middle East? 

Allowing Khameni to control the Middle East is not a good idea for Western interests. Russia, China, Syris, North Korea, etc. would love to take over. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Again: what's the endgame? Bush invaded Iraq because "allowing Hussein to continue existing" is not a good idea for Western interests.  Etc. etc. We all saw how that turned out.  

Edited January 6, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[PE Scott + 563]

I won't lie, as someone who generally supports President Trump, I wasn't a fan of this move. I don't see much winning here and its unclear to me how this would be a more effective way of protecting U.S. interest than simply removing personnel from the region and letting Iraq secure it themselves with U.S. financial and logistical assistance. Now, we've burnt that bridge too. 

We'll just have to wait it out and see how things unfold.

[remake it + 288]

7 minutes ago, PE Scott said:

We'll just have to wait it out and see how things unfold.

Don't leave the country unless you can get away with being Canadian as the guns are out!

[PE Scott + 563]

6 minutes ago, remake it said:

Don't leave the country unless you can get away with being Canadian as the guns are out!

That's one of the great securities of this amazing country. I can never leave and be happy. As much as I enjoy other countries and cultures, I've got everything I could ever want within the sprawling borders of the U.S. Its part of the problem, really. We're all spoiled in that way. So all though I don't agree with recent U.S. actions, I'm not at all concerned for my security or freedom either. 

It's part of the reason POTUS will get away with this, I think. It doesn't really effect that many Americans directly.

Edited January 6, 2020 by PE Scott

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

3 hours ago, PE Scott said:

It doesn't really effect that many Americans directly.

Apart from the likely terrorist attacks that will kill Americans, or even worse a full blown war (which Iran has declared) which will kill a hell of a lot more than a few terrorist attacks. A rough estimate since 2003 in Iraq is 4500 US soldiers killed.

I bet the US military is currently having to spend a hell of a lot of money on a recruitment drive!

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

4 hours ago, PE Scott said:

It's part of the reason POTUS will get away with this, I think. It doesn't really effect that many Americans directly.

Get away with it in what sense though? 

It seems to me that the most important thing for America at this point in time should be address China in a meaningfull way. Any American on this forum that takes the future of their country seriously should be horrified.. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[PE Scott + 563]

3 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Get away with it in what sense though? 

It seems to me that the most important thing for America at this point in time should be address China in a meaningfull way. Any American on this forum that takes the future of their country seriously should be horrified.. 

This doesn't have a whole lot to do with China nor will it change much in that arena....provided we stay out of a war. 

I don't think this will amount to much; a flash in the pan somewhere a fire has been raging for decades. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 minute ago, PE Scott said:

This doesn't have a whole lot to do with China nor will it change much in that arena....provided we stay out of a war. 

It is a major distraction whichever way you look at it. 

In my view Trump should be building an alliance across that West to address China in a meaningfull way. 

I am not horrified but the act itself more how it was done and then bragged about. 

[PE Scott + 563]

19 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

It is a major distraction whichever way you look at it. 

In my view Trump should be building an alliance across that West to address China in a meaningfull way. 

I am not horrified but the act itself more how it was done and then bragged about. 

How it was done was maybe kind of stupid: it's hard to pass judgment with such a small piece of the picture though. I don't know what kind of intelligence they were looking at to inform the decision to strike. 

The bragging is par for course when you've done something controversial as President. Trump, admittedly, brags on an entirely different level than most. As you said though, I think it's more of a distraction and a method of trying to steer the narrative into a positive light. Even if it was a mistake, I think it would be far worse if he came out and said "sorry guys, woke up on the wrong side of the bed, I probably went a little overboard. My bad." Better to double down and stand behind the decision now that's its done.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

32 minutes ago, PE Scott said:

As you said though, I think it's more of a distraction and a method of trying to steer the narrative into a positive light.

My point is that it is a major disctraction. Europe and US should find some common ground and address China in a meaningfull way instead of this. My guess is that incident will dominate foreign policy in Europe and US atleast untill November. 

[Marcin + 519]

10 hours ago, Hotone said:

It's not just oil, you forgot about Israel.  Currently, the only 'frontline' state left standing that threatens Israel is Iran...

China & US will sort all problems of Israel after hegemony conflict will end its worst phase that is in about10 years (when China will close most gaps in technology & economic parity).

Israel vs Muslims in Middle East conflict is allowed to be continued because at the moment it suits some interests of US, Israel, Arabs, Turkey and Russia.

It is a conflict about nothing, 10,000 square miles of mostly arid land.

Totally artificial conflict.

In the future all Palestinians&willing Arabs, there are only a few of them in Israel, less than 5 million, would be resettled to a fancy new flats in new Palestinian towns, built together with all these mosques, desalination plants and internal plumbing by Chinese (they will not call this part of BRI to not hurt US ego) somewhere on the Mediterranean coast.

Total cost of such operation is less than 50 billion USD=Chinese current investment in infrastructure every 3 weeks.

China could build this in 4 years.

If China&US gang up together for some common interest on this planet it is done deal.

[Marcin + 519]

14 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

My point is that it is a major disctraction. Europe and US should find some common ground and address China in a meaningfull way instead of this. My guess is that incident will dominate foreign policy in Europe and US atleast untill November. 

There is shortage of Don Perignon in Beijing recently for a reason. It is a blessing for China, if US will be distracted from hegemony conflict with China, even if for a year or two.

In May 2018 Chinese operationalized anti-US and pro-China strategy and started the clock. They need 10 years, 3653 days to win. Already 600 days passed. Distration in Middle East for another 1,000 days is more than welcome (provided that oil will flow) by China.

If things go really bad they have this military arm of themselves that is called Russian Federation. Unlimited funds for Putin are always assured. China will stay in sidelines (you know they still need 2900 days).

US war with Iran ? Fantastic, if Xi Jinping would be religious he would pray for it every day.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Marcin
typo

[Marcin + 519]

15 January 2020 Liu He will sign in White House phase one deal-about-nothing and Trump will trump a big success, MAGA!

I think majority of Americans will believe Trump, that is the only thing that count. You know there are sometimes upsides to US society lemming attitude to mass media.

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

16 minutes ago, Marcin said:

If China&US gang up together for some common interest on this planet it is done deal.

Ahh back to the favourite topic!

I thought this was about US + Iran? 😂

[Marcin + 519]

Just now, Rob Plant said:

Ahh back to the favourite topic!

I thought this was about US + Iran? 😂

Rob, US-China conflict is the most important process on this planet in the near future. Both countries, mobilize all resources in their disposal.

Hegemony is mainly about access to natural reosurces, so anything that happens in relation to hydrocarbons, the most important natural resource on this planet is about US-China.

[BigJets + 87]

China has some to do with it but not all.  Iran represents cheap energy for China and alternative to supporting USA supported energy trade.  Pic related is a glimpse into Chinese demand for Iranian oil.  Still happening on a smaller scale now, much more difficult for China to acquire Iranian oil off the market.  If not from Iran, where else may China procure it’s desperately needed energy.... USA says hello!  

In other words, 2 birds with one stone.  China needs that Iranian oil for their machine.  All we have to do is make it a little more difficult for them to get it.  And the balance goes to USA supported energy trade.  

In other other words, you see Obama administration supported Iranian and Chinese energy trade.  And got nothing for protecting such trade!  Enter Trump, America first!  Get your own oil China or pay big daddy Trump for your protection.  

But the main reason why we hit this guy is because he was on the offensive.  Coordinating with Huthies And Hezbollah, out of country (Iran) and terrorizing in Iraq.  *** ring , ring ; ring, ring *** “yes sir, we have him in Iraq airport.  We can hit him with limited collateral damage.”  Out of country  (Iran) and after and embassy hit (USA).  You take that shot every single day of the week.  

 

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by BigJets

[Marcin + 519]

@BigJets You think in term of tactics time frame, next 2-3 years.

Strategically China will buy US oil, Iranian oil, all the oil.

They at the moment in 2019 consume 14 m bbl/d, US consumes 20.5 m bbl/d.

Each and every year this 14 m number rises by about 5%.

Till they reach about 30 m bbl/d.

It is still very low usage per capita, similar to EU.

If China would consume like US, which will never happen, it will go up to 85 m bbl/d.

US can offer how much ? 1 m bbl/d maximum 2 m bbl/d, maybe in 5 years 3m bbl/d ?

(China will not be US only client ?)

[BigJets + 87]

13 minutes ago, Marcin said:

@BigJets You think in term of tactics time frame, next 2-3 years.

Strategically China will buy US oil, Iranian oil, all the oil.

They at the moment in 2019 consume 14 m bbl/d, US consumes 20.5 m bbl/d.

Each and every year this 14 m number rises by about 5%.

Till they reach about 30 m bbl/d.

It is still very low usage per capita, similar to EU.

If China would consume like US, which will never happen, it will go up to 85 m bbl/d.

US can offer how much ? 1 m bbl/d maximum 2 m bbl/d, maybe in 5 years 3m bbl/d ?

(China will not be US only client ?)

China is only 1 country in that pie (although the largest consumer of the bunch).  Ask the same question to any of those other customers.  Now it’s more difficult to acquire Iranian oil... how do you fill that void?  Tell America you must allow the Iranian oil, sternly.  ??? Hahahaha

All of our “allies” are on notice.  No more free rides, not under this administration.  

Iran oil is out.  You want it?? good luck going to get it.  You want USA backed and supported energy trade??? No problem, here’s how to sign up... get in line! 

America first. 

I am of the belief USA can, should, and will single handedly pay off the national debt through shipping and global trade protection, and through energy/oil exports.  No more free rides world.  

Edited January 6, 2020 by BigJets

[Marcin + 519]

@BigJets You suggest US prevent whole world from satisfying their oil demand, like take oil hostage ? It is not possible, US is more oil hungry than rest, so need low prices. Apart from that such move would unite global public opinion against it. Too big success for China.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Forest ...

Trees ...

< * eye roll * >

 

 

 

 

 

 

Carry on ...

 

[Marcin + 519]

2 hours ago, PE Scott said:

How it was done was maybe kind of stupid: it's hard to pass judgment with such a small piece of the picture though. . 

The bragging is par for course when you've done something controversial as President. Trump, admittedly, brags on an entirely different level than most. As you said though, I think it's more of a distraction and a method of trying to steer the narrative into a positive light. Even if it was a mistake, I think it would be far worse if he came out and said "sorry guys, woke up on the wrong side of the bed, I probably went a little overboard. My bad." Better to double down and stand behind the decision now that's its done.

But Trump does things that are more stupid every day.

I would say it is mental illness.

Presidential Darwin Award for 2020 goes to Trump, this is a fact.

But on 3rd January i thought because killing Suleimani in that timing and that way and because of bragging about it. I have not imagined what more stupid Trump could do.

And 3 days passed and he exceeded my expectations, he wants to bomb Iranian cultural sites.

Only ISIS and Talibans and earlier Nazi Germany did THAT and now US with Trump.

[BigJets + 87]

23 minutes ago, Marcin said:

@BigJets You suggest US prevent whole world from satisfying their oil demand, like take oil hostage ? It is not possible, US is more oil hungry than rest, so need low prices. Apart from that such move would unite global public opinion against it. Too big success for China.

USA is self sufficient and supplementing new energy everyday; and more efficient machines.  Perhaps, very likely, have already discovered alternative means.  Where there is energy, we will find it and we will extract it the safest and cleanest way possible.  

we don’t require that you buy oil through our services.  However, if you choose not to you may find it difficult out there on your own. we wish you all the best of luck in that endeavor.  

How many other legitimate, reliable suppliers are there?  Especially when you start taking Iran and Iraq off the market . Venezuela? Libya?  USA is going to be the safest bet in energy for a long long time to go.  Have the navy to back it up.  

 

1.    Saudi Arabia: US$182.5 billion (16.1% of total crude oil exports)

2.    Russia: $129 billion (11.4%)

3.    Iraq: $91.7 billion (8.1%)

4.    Canada: $66.9 billion (5.9%)

5.    United Arab Emirates: $58.4 billion (5.2%)

6.    Kuwait: $51.7 billion (4.6%)

7.    Iran: $50.8 billion (4.5%)

8.    United States: $48.3 billion (4.3%)

9.    Nigeria: $43.6 billion (3.8%)

10. Kazakhstan: $37.8 billion (3.3%)

11. Angola: $36.5 billion (3.2%)

12. Norway: $33.3 billion (2.9%)

13. Libya: $26.7 billion (2.4%)

14. Mexico: $26.5 billion (2.3%)

15. Venezuela: $26.4 billion (2.3%)

Edited January 6, 2020 by BigJets

[D Coyne + 305]

12 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

People have been saying "we're going to run out of oil" for the last 50 years.  Guess what: we currently have an oversupply of oil.

I don't care what numbers you provide.  Given the track record, I'm not going to believe what you write.  

We have more than enough oil.  Even the frackers can tell you that (since they're going bankrupt).  

Zhong Lu,

US tight oil resource is between 60 and 90 Gb.  How much crude oil does the US consume?  About 6.2 Gb per year.  Let's say the peak comes at about the half way point at 45 Gb (assumes 90 Gb of tight oil), the US has already produced about 16 Gb of tight oil, so about 30 Gb until we reach half of URR or about 5 years.

Peak oil is not about "running out of oil" it is about maximum World output, which is likely to occur by 2024 to 2026.

I agree the market is currently oversupplied, but by 2021 we will see oil prices rise and by 2025 Brent will likely be $90/b in 2018 US$, probably we will see Brent prices continue to rise to about $120/bo in 2018 US$ by 2027 and this might be enough to destroy enough demand so that the oil market stays in balance at 110 to 130/bo in 2018$ until demand starts to fall in 2040 or so as the World transitions to electric transport (both battery and possibly fuel cell).

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

The End Game is apparently a game of "Blame Trump no matter what he does".  Full blown Trump Derangement Syndrome.

 

 

See how that game works?  Blame Trump no matter what he does.  TDS.