Don't sneeze. Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets and global economies

[0R0 + 6,251]

The numbers are substantially under reporting since the Wuhan area hospitals are out of testing kits. They were delaying testing also because despite government assurances of free treatment for those confirmed, no official payment arrangements have been made for the hospitals and quarantine costs far more. 

Quarantine procedures were not followed till AFTER confirmation.Suspected cases were not quarantined and not labeled so that staff visitors and other patients would not be exposed. The routine hygiene procedures are apparently substandard in the Wuhan region's hospitals.  

The positive part is that the number of dead are increasing more slowly than confirmed cases. The number of cures is rising faster. So perhaps mortality is not going to be as high as feared.

The hospital staff decisions and public official reactions smack of the deepest kind of oblivious incompetence. .

The squashing of critical content is preventing rational responses from officials, who are not being informed efficiently through the hierarchy, which is in the habit of gussying up and slapping lipstick on the pig (bad news). .  

As the SARS expert from HK said in one of the SCMP articles, this is looking more and more like a pandemic that has already broken through. Containment efforts started far too late after clinical identification of the outbreak over a month ago, and the sequencing of the virus and test kit production. 

This is deeply saddening.

This display of uncaring oblivious slow and cruel respoinse will cost the CCP what little trust it has left among the people. The officialdom of China as a whole are looking thoroughly incompetent. 

 

[0R0 + 6,251]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEkIdGht-S8

Guy says the leadership has isolated itself on some island inland called Qin Hai??? Real place? So they are quarantining themselves from the country?

https://www.ft.com/content/7bb597c8-3ff7-11ea-a047-eae9bd51ceba

Incubation is up to 14 days but can be as short as 1 day. the patient is contagious during incubation long before they feel ill or are showing symptoms. Official position is that the spread will accelerate.  

Edited January 26, 2020 by 0R0

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Not to be a fear-monger, but I did post-graduate viral research many years ago; a lot of it was on Influenza A, which was scary enough. With an incubation period of up to two weeks, there are X number of people already infected with this new virus, totally asymptomatic and unknowing.

This is a senseless pandemic. By that, I mean this is a "zoonotic" disease--a virus that, in this case, lived without causing problems in a certain snake population, and then, because of weird behavior of having these snakes in close contact with people, and, I suppose, even eating them, jumped genus lines to humans. Unless I've slipped a cog, the SARS and MERS infections were also zoonotic. If China contained the result of their own perversions, that would be one thing, but they're endangering the population of the world. More sanctions, Mr. Trump? 

I actually am fearful that this one may be different, and once this gets into the worldwide population--which seems to have occurred about two weeks ago--it may well run rampant, again primarily due to this long incubation period. The Chinese government has once again failed its population: by allowing these snakes in their marketplaces. 

In contradistinction to posts above, written by people I respect, I have to say that I think this new virus is going to cause widespread financial repercussions. Oil is going to get more severely hit than it has already been, and I fear that we're going down to previous lows--which could wipe out the rest of the small and intermediate-sized shale operators--which really, really pisses me off. This is an irresponsible act on the part of the Chinese. Sanction the hell out of them! 

If I were on an LNG ship taking product into China, I'd be wearing a ventilator, not just a mask, and I hope our companies protect Americans from this thing. We should not be cavalier about this. Nor should we just shrug this one off. The Chinese government has to be slapped around--a lot--for this careless social practice to which they've turned a blind eye. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

9 hours ago, 0R0 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEkIdGht-S8

Guy says the leadership has isolated itself on some island inland called Qin Hai??? Real place? So they are quarantining themselves from the country?

https://www.ft.com/content/7bb597c8-3ff7-11ea-a047-eae9bd51ceba

Incubation is up to 14 days but can be as short as 1 day. the patient is contagious during incubation long before they feel ill or are showing symptoms. Official position is that the spread will accelerate.  

Laowhy86 is fluent in mandarin and lives in China although I suspect he currently YouTube's from Taiwan. He has a very good take on this and for those who can't understand mandarin, it's in English. 

Qin Hai is near Mongolia in the desert, not an island. I didn't follow clearly because of the mask so not sure who went there. 

Edited January 26, 2020 by Ward Smith
Added geography

[0R0 + 6,251]

Thailand reported 19 strains of the W-CoV virus in its 7 tested patients. Did I get that right? @Gerry Maddouxdoes that indicate an unusually rapid mutation rate?

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

Probably would indicate a very rapid mutation rate. Everyone used to fear these zoonotic viruses because once they jump genus lines and insert themselves in human DNA, they seem to adapt to their new host very quickly. 

I saw where Tony Fauci (Head of CDC) said today that Americans are at low risk. I hope that's right, but it seems a bit premature to be saying that. In fact, I hope very few Chinese succumb to this, but I read where one Chinese health authority said that "it seems to be increasing in virulence," which would go along with selective mutation. 

There's something weird about raising exotic animals and reptiles in close proximity. And then eating them. No telling how many viruses have failed to make the jump to humans, and then here comes one. That creates a new "zoonosis." Since we humans have never experienced it before, and have no antibodies against it, the thing can usually spread fast. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

All I know for sure was my daughter's intra-flights in China were cancelled, and they gave her a refund, and just last night she's managed to book a flight out of the country a week early, dashing off to USA, via Taipei. And that makes me happy. 

It's a bit like flying, yes statistically it's very safe, but those odds are meaningless when you are in the plane going down.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

13 minutes ago, John Foote said:

It's a bit like flying, yes statistically it's very safe, but those odds are meaningless when you are in the plane going down.

Just ask Kobe

[George8944 + 128]

I couldn't find the article I read this morning that quoted a CDC guy as saying that based on actual growth data, their initial boundary condition forecasting expansion is too low.   I can't wait to see how the stock market opens Monday.   Prior to this I was thinking of going to cash, that idea is sounding better and better.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

24 minutes ago, George8944 said:

I couldn't find the article I read this morning that quoted a CDC guy as saying that based on actual growth data, their initial boundary condition forecasting expansion is too low.   I can't wait to see how the stock market opens Monday.   Prior to this I was thinking of going to cash, that idea is sounding better and better.

I saw your picture. You're a very smart young man. 

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 1/24/2020 at 7:38 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Just before Chinese New Year on the 25th, it looks like the Coronavirus emanating from China is going to cause multi-form, intertwined havoc, globally. 

Health, markets, energy demand, travel plans, economy, all going to get whacked.  Starting in China already.  How hard the whacks will be remain to be seen, but whacks are already being dished out.

Lets see how far the health problems spread globally by next week, along with a resultant knockdown on all sorts of other economic and energy factors.

Coronavirus is a threat to oil markets

Oil demand causes market moves and China's oil demand tops that of the U.S.

Oil prices are set to fall for the week mainly due to concerns over the coronavirus.

The deadly virus is keeping oil prices low on concerns demand will fall, with a big impact on travel as people stay put.  ...

... The oil markets are obsessed with China -specifically China’s demand for oil, according to Oilprice.com.  ...

 

Yes, I cannot imagine that the Chinese will be out at the showrooms buying cars either. Their car sales already down 10% over last 12 months so I expect Tesla, BMW, Mercedes etc to get whacked soon.

[George8944 + 128]

12 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

I saw your picture. You're a very smart young man. 

Thanks.  Laughing is good for the soul. I hope the picture brought you a chuckle.   People have been laughing at me for a long time!

[Wombat + 1,028]

A quick factoid: The West Australian crayfish (lobster) industry is largest exporter of them on planet. 97% of catch goes to China, until today. Price just crashed from $105/kg to ZERO $/kg so industry has decided to halt all fishing! Excuse the pun, but it used to be that "When America sneezes, the whole world catches a cold..."   now it seems "When China sneezes, the whole world catches deadly snake flu"?

[Wombat + 1,028]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Not to be a fear-monger, but I did post-graduate viral research many years ago; a lot of it was on Influenza A, which was scary enough. With an incubation period of up to two weeks, there are X number of people already infected with this new virus, totally asymptomatic and unknowing.

This is a senseless pandemic. By that, I mean this is a "zoonotic" disease--a virus that, in this case, lived without causing problems in a certain snake population, and then, because of weird behavior of having these snakes in close contact with people, and, I suppose, even eating them, jumped genus lines to humans. Unless I've slipped a cog, the SARS and MERS infections were also zoonotic. If China contained the result of their own perversions, that would be one thing, but they're endangering the population of the world. More sanctions, Mr. Trump? 

I actually am fearful that this one may be different, and once this gets into the worldwide population--which seems to have occurred about two weeks ago--it may well run rampant, again primarily due to this long incubation period. The Chinese government has once again failed its population: by allowing these snakes in their marketplaces. 

In contradistinction to posts above, written by people I respect, I have to say that I think this new virus is going to cause widespread financial repercussions. Oil is going to get more severely hit than it has already been, and I fear that we're going down to previous lows--which could wipe out the rest of the small and intermediate-sized shale operators--which really, really pisses me off. This is an irresponsible act on the part of the Chinese. Sanction the hell out of them! 

If I were on an LNG ship taking product into China, I'd be wearing a ventilator, not just a mask, and I hope our companies protect Americans from this thing. We should not be cavalier about this. Nor should we just shrug this one off. The Chinese government has to be slapped around--a lot--for this careless social practice to which they've turned a blind eye. 

I agree Gerry, oil going to hit $30/bbl and really hurt US Shale. Spare a thought for us Aussies, China is our biggest export destination by far and ALL exports getting hammered, iron ore, coal, LNG and even lobsters! Thankyou for the little lesson in "zoonotic" disease, I will never forget that term again

[Wombat + 1,028]

4 hours ago, John Foote said:

All I know for sure was my daughter's intra-flights in China were cancelled, and they gave her a refund, and just last night she's managed to book a flight out of the country a week early, dashing off to USA, via Taipei. And that makes me happy. 

It's a bit like flying, yes statistically it's very safe, but those odds are meaningless when you are in the plane going down.

Mmmmm, my eldest daughter set to do her second school excursion to China in Sept (she speaks fluent Mandarin), but I guess that depends on finding a vaccine real fast.

[Wombat + 1,028]

10 hours ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

Not to be a fear-monger, but I did post-graduate viral research many years ago; a lot of it was on Influenza A, which was scary enough. With an incubation period of up to two weeks, there are X number of people already infected with this new virus, totally asymptomatic and unknowing.

This is a senseless pandemic. By that, I mean this is a "zoonotic" disease--a virus that, in this case, lived without causing problems in a certain snake population, and then, because of weird behavior of having these snakes in close contact with people, and, I suppose, even eating them, jumped genus lines to humans. Unless I've slipped a cog, the SARS and MERS infections were also zoonotic. If China contained the result of their own perversions, that would be one thing, but they're endangering the population of the world. More sanctions, Mr. Trump? 

I actually am fearful that this one may be different, and once this gets into the worldwide population--which seems to have occurred about two weeks ago--it may well run rampant, again primarily due to this long incubation period. The Chinese government has once again failed its population: by allowing these snakes in their marketplaces. 

In contradistinction to posts above, written by people I respect, I have to say that I think this new virus is going to cause widespread financial repercussions. Oil is going to get more severely hit than it has already been, and I fear that we're going down to previous lows--which could wipe out the rest of the small and intermediate-sized shale operators--which really, really pisses me off. This is an irresponsible act on the part of the Chinese. Sanction the hell out of them! 

If I were on an LNG ship taking product into China, I'd be wearing a ventilator, not just a mask, and I hope our companies protect Americans from this thing. We should not be cavalier about this. Nor should we just shrug this one off. The Chinese government has to be slapped around--a lot--for this careless social practice to which they've turned a blind eye. 

I am not usually into conspiracies, but I don't understand why all flights to and from China and all other countries have not been banned yet? Makes me wonder if the WHO is being deliberately tardy for "environmental" reasons. Then again, I hear that Japan is expecting 100m (mainly Chinese) visitors for the Olympics soon, so maybe motives are just economic as usual and global govt just in "denial" stage of grief? They have only themselves to blame for the up-coming chaos. Who would have thought that global supply chains were so vulnerable to a virus? Talk about a "Black Swan" event?

[0R0 + 6,251]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak

About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown [many others left after it was announced Wed.]

The Chinese State Council has extended the Lunar New Year holiday to February 2 to curb the spread of the virus,

The State Council also said that kindergartens, primary and secondary schools, and colleges will be suspended until further notice

So it looks like the economy is going to be shot for the near future. 

Ma Xiaowei, the minister in charge of China’s National Health Commission:

-the new virus could be transmitted even during incubation period

,-“Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.

-“There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

-most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, 

-the epidemic was accelerating and “may last for some time”.

-he said there had yet to be any signs of the virus mutating.[we know that is not true, as Thai patients show 19 strains in 7 cases.]

-Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

-Ma said that 2,360 military and civilian doctors and nurses had been sent to Wuhan

- Minister of industry and technology said that the entire production of protective suits for China about 30k and the export production too will be sent to Hubei. [I guess a shortage of infection protection gear is going to spread worldwide, and there goes that export market

-More quarantine plans: In the case of a neighbourhood community or village having two confirmed cases, it could be declared an epidemic zone and sealed off,

The government issued a warning to NGOs and charities to stay away.How friendly is that?

Foreign countries are planning evacuations of their citizens (US Aussies Japan France and Russia) 

2800 confirmed, 80 dead, 51? cured. ~2700 cases suspected. Certainly understates the numbers.

]

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 1/25/2020 at 3:20 AM, Zhong Lu said:

Potentially great for pharmaceutical companies.  The right ones. Such as INO (disclaimer: I currently have a position in INO).  

 

On 1/25/2020 at 3:20 AM, Zhong Lu said:

Potentially great for pharmaceutical companies.  The right ones. Such as INO (disclaimer: I currently have a position in INO).  

Try CSL of Australia. Probably will be first to create vaccine.

[Gerry Maddoux + 3,627]

6 hours ago, Wombat said:

Try CSL of Australia. Probably will be first to create vaccine.

There will be a vaccine, but it's not an easy fix. To use an illustration, the reason people aren't 100% protected by the Influenza A vaccine is because the virus possesses stubby knobs all over its surface--and those serve as the greatest antigens (to stimulate production of antibodies). So, each year a vaccine is developed against the prevalent antigens, only the virus quickly mutates, changing the composition of those little spikes. The vaccine works great some years, when there's not so much mutation, but allows epidemics other years, when the virus mutates rapidly and profoundly. Still, even in a "bad year," the vaccine can turn what would have been a fatal illness into an attenuated one with a little fever, sniffles and a cough.

Since this current virus is one that apparently jumped genus lines--from snake to human--it likely is mutating to "fit" its new host. That means that the antigens on its surface are changing, and therefore any antibody formed against a certain vaccine antigen may only be partially effective. Like with influenza, the vaccine might well confer enough immunity (antibodies) that the individual only has a mild case of what is rapidly becoming known as the "snake flu." Developing a decent vaccine is, however, like hitting a moving target. 

Still, someone will develop a vaccine. It may be some obscure researcher in a tiny outfit, or it may be someone already famous, working for a giant. The race is on.

Parenthetically, pressure needs to mount toward getting China to crack down on these silly cults that eat anything in the world (remember, this is how SARS began). Sanctions against them for pilfering intellectual data from some company like Apple (which used youth labor at Foxconn, under conditions so poor that they had to install suicide-proof dormitory windows) is a bit arcane when put up against something like this: a pandemic that threatens the health and welfare, not to mention finances, of the global community. Enough is enough!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

21 minutes ago, Gerry Maddoux said:

the individual only has a mild case of what is rapidly becoming known as the "snake flu."

AKA  Kung Flu

[luca mattei + 15]

China testing HIV drug (Aluvia) as treatment for new coronavirus, AbbVie says

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-abbvie-hiv-idUKKBN1ZP0Q8

 

Don't seem good news.
Like they're looking around to find something to solve the problem, but without concrete scientific basis.
Maybe for the hurry to do something...

[notsonice + 1,062]

With at least 82 dead so far, Beijing has broadened the extraordinary quarantine to more than 50 million people, but the mayor of Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicenter, said 5 million people have already left his city. Good luck to everyone

[Wombat + 1,028]

On 1/25/2020 at 10:02 PM, James Regan said:

Interesting piece on history of influenza and how they are named ie H1N2 etc

Hs and Ns

Influenza A and B viruses have two types of spikes that cover their surface – the haemagglutinin (H) and the neuraminidase (N). 

Viruses attach by their haemagglutinin onto receptors on the surface of cells in order to infect them, like a grappling hook. And the neuraminidase removes these receptors from infected cells at the right time to allow newly synthesised viruses to escape and spread.

Among influenza A viruses there are 17 different types of haemagglutinin, from H1 to H17 and nine different types of neuraminidase, from N1 to N9. Each virus has one type of H (such as H1) and one type of N (such as N1).

While most strains of influenza A viruses infect multiple types of birds, including poultry, ducks and geese, some strains also infect pigs. Indeed, avian influenza strains are endemic in wild birds, especially in Asia. But, interestingly, most birds don’t get ill from the flu.

The new H7N9 strain emerging in China does not make birds ill, for instance, but has been killing about a third of infected humans. The H5N1 strain, on the other, has evolved to kill birds and some humans who are infected from these birds. 

So, while there are many combinations of H and N seen in birds, widespread human infection has only been caused by a few. H1N1, which was responsible for the 1918 pandemic virus and the recent swine flu pandemic, H2N2, the 1957 Asian flu pandemic strain, and the H3N2 Hong Kong pandemic strain in 1968, which displaced the Asian flu.

The seasonal influenza A strains currently circulating in humans are H1N1 and H3N2, but they have changed a lot since their first introduction into humans. 

Influenza B strains do not circulate in animals, so they cannot cause a pandemic. But, like influenza A viruses, they continually change, so we will never become immune to every strain. 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/molecules-to-medicine/h1n-what-wading-through-the-alphabet-soup-of-flu-names/

James, can you tell me if Relenza or Tamiflu any use in fighting zoonotic viruses?

[luca mattei + 15]

First coronavirus case confirmed in Germany (southern Bavaria region): Bavarian health ministry

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/first-coronavirus-case-confirmed-in-germany-bavarian-health-ministry/articleshow/73685706.cms

[Rob Kramer + 696]

Bible verse of the day. Leviticus 11.

²⁹ “‘Of the animals that move along the ground, these are unclean for you: the weasel, the rat, any kind of great lizard, ³⁰ the gecko, the monitor lizard, the wall lizard, the skink and the chameleon. ³¹ Of all those that move along the ground, these are unclean for you. Whoever touches them when they are dead will be unclean till evening. ³² When one of them dies and falls on something, that article, whatever its use, will be unclean, whether it is made of wood, cloth, hide or sackcloth. Put it in water; it will be unclean till evening, and then it will be clean. ³³ If one of them falls into a clay pot, everything in it will be unclean, and you must break the pot. ³⁴ Any food you are allowed to eat that has come into contact with water from any such pot is unclean, and any liquid that is drunk from such a pot is unclean. ³⁵ Anything that one of their carcasses falls on becomes unclean; an oven or cooking pot must be broken up. They are unclean, and you are to regard them as unclean. ³⁶ A spring, however, or a cistern for collecting water remains clean, but anyone who touches one of these carcasses is unclean. ³⁷ If a carcass falls on any seeds that are to be planted, they remain clean.³⁸ But if water has been put on the seed and a carcass falls on it, it is unclean for you.

³⁹ “‘If an animal that you are allowed to eat dies, anyone who touches its carcass will be unclean till evening. ⁴⁰ Anyone who eats some of its carcass must wash their clothes, and they will be unclean till evening. Anyone who picks up the carcass must wash their clothes, and they will be unclean till evening.

⁴¹ “‘Every creature that moves along the ground is to be regarded as unclean; it is not to be eaten. ⁴² You are not to eat any creature that moves along the ground, whether it moves on its belly or walks on all fours or on many feet; it is unclean. ⁴³ Do not defile yourselves by any of these creatures. Do not make yourselves unclean by means of them or be made unclean by them. ⁴⁴ I am the Lordyour God; consecrate yourselves and be holy,because I am holy. Do not make yourselves unclean by any creature that moves along the ground. ⁴⁵ I am the Lord, who brought you up out of Egypt to be your God; therefore be holy, because I am holy.

⁴⁶ “‘These are the regulations concerning animals, birds, every living thing that moves about in the water and every creature that moves along the ground. ⁴⁷ You must distinguish between the unclean and the clean, between living creatures that may be eaten and those that may not be eaten.’”