Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
MK

US (provocations and tech containment) and Chinese ( restraint and long game) strategies in hegemony conflict

Recommended Posts

(edited)

Each country plays what it thinks ( my opinion both are right) would be the most effective strategy in achieving hegemony goal.

US provocations counting on Chinese counter reactions - arrest of Meng Wanzhou

US tech containment - trying to prevent Chinese development of high tech companies, technologies, banning access to high tech components.

China - very restrained backlash to US actions

China knows that unrestricted co-operation with all other countries ( other than US) is essential to tech and economic development with long term hegemony goal .

Edited by Marcin2
Typo
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Backlash to US policies is very restrained cause major leverage of China over US ( that puts brakes on US tech sanctions) is through economic interdependencies and thus lobbying power of US corporations that have vital interests in China ( manufacturing base and consumer market)

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Apart from that China tries to recruit global talent in high tech industries. They have practically unlimited funding ( magnitude of 1 trillion US dollars) and only need to take care of its benevolent „face”. Should convince that China is the place to be for global talent with families. Global talent is attracted by: - assuring cosmopolitan world class living conditions together with top British schools, opportunity to be part of global diaspora of privileged upper class, - fat packages of up to 2 milion dollars for 5-10 year assignments together with top class gated housing,

- once in a life time Opportunity to develop themselves professionally due to unlimited R&D funding

Few can resist this lure.

 

Edited by Marcin2
Typo
  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Marcin2 said:

Apart from that China tries to recruit global talent in high tech industries. They have practically unlimited funding ( magnitude of 1 trillion US dollars)

It is true that the levels of R&D are growing enormously year on year, but not quite to the level you suggest. This article below (from a Chinese source) claims it is $278b which is still a large amount but nowhere near the 1 trillion you suggest.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/07/c_138373248.htm

I do agree that the incentives to go to China are very appealing and they are throwing money at the right people.

Having said that if you are patriotic you may choose to ignore this and remain working for a business in your own country to benefit your own country. I believe most US citizens are very patriotic and would certainly think twice before relocating their families to China for 5 years or so. At the end of the day if they are leading their particular field of tech then they will command a very good salary to remain where they are or within their own country where they have freedoms that they wont have in China. The same cannot be said for most of Europe however who are either more mercenary or simply don't care who they work for if the salary is right.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I believe most US citizens are very patriotic and would certainly think twice before relocating their families to China for 5 years or so. At the end of the day if they are leading their particular field of tech then they will command a very good salary to remain where they are or within their own country where they have freedoms that they wont have in China. The same cannot be said for most of Europe however who are either more mercenary or simply don't care who they work for if the salary is right.

I actually think more Americans are willing to sell out than Europeans. Reason being that in my experience Americans value money more than Europeans... Just my experience. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I expect the published numbers are low balled.

The 2020 budget for Huawei is expected to be $20 billion, and the company will employ well over 100k engineers. That's just one company. China has many thousands more. Then add China's own MIC.

On top of this, consider the % of population considered to be super intelligent, at say 1%. That's 14 million for China, and 4 million for USA. On top, consider the Chinese value education far far greater than 'murcans.  By any standard, brains + money = success. 

Trump is doing all he can to stem the tide, even to the point of arresting key executives on bogus charges. The trade war will not bring jobs home. But 'murcans are too blind: your systemic cancers and debts are too great. 

 

 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

It is true that the levels of R&D are growing enormously year on year, but not quite to the level you suggest. This article below (from a Chinese source) claims it is $278b which is still a large amount but nowhere near the 1 trillion you suggest.

You are totally right. I was talking about the pool of funds available annual spending is much smaller.

You have 1 party state, meritocracy, hell bent about achieving self sufficiency which is  a stated goal ( China 2025) of the country, recently strengthened by outside factors ( US tech war).

For scientist, R&D guy the funding is assured in 10-15 years perspective , not dependent on changing political climate priorities and governmental haggling by lobbyist groups.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

For scientist, R&D guy the funding is assured in 10-15 years perspective , not dependent on changing political climate priorities and governmental haggling by lobbyist groups.

Yeah that must be a big attraction to work in China to be fair.

In the West no quick results can mean and end of funding and all the research done largely wasted, purely for short term political thinking.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I actually think more Americans are willing to sell out than Europeans. Reason being that in my experience Americans value money more than Europeans... Just my experience. 

„American” scientists in stem subjects are 80%+ foreign born and these in their 30s, most prospective ones, at the Phd or post doc phase of their career are very easy to travel and change country of residence. You just need to provide them with „cool” living environment and assure that their offspring would get world class education if they already have families.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Yeah that must be a big attraction to work in China to be fair.

In the West no quick results can mean and end of funding and all the research done largely wasted, purely for short term political thinking.

What also cannot be overlooked is inherent value of R&D development from Chinese perspective. For example know how in integrated circuits is valued many times its fair, market value. I mean that if ASML or Intel would be for sale China would gladly pay 3 times market value. The same with Boeing. Just for know how.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Apart from that China tries to recruit global talent in high tech industries. They have practically unlimited funding ( magnitude of 1 trillion US dollars) and only need to take care of its benevolent „face”. Should convince that China is the place to be for global talent with families. Global talent is attracted by: - assuring cosmopolitan world class living conditions together with top British schools, opportunity to be part of global diaspora of privileged upper class, - fat packages of up to 2 milion dollars for 5-10 year assignments together with top class gated housing,

- once in a life time Opportunity to develop themselves professionally due to unlimited R&D funding

Few can resist this lure.

Especially if they Don't care about their health

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Especially if they Don't care about their health

Ward but not in Chinese Silicon Valley around Shenzen.

The air quality there is good due to location at sea coast and thus constant breeze.

Actually the air quality in Shenzen is the same as air quality in US SIlicon Valley (the original one) around San Jose.

You do not have to believe me, just check both links below:

http://aqicn.org/city/shenzhen/

http://aqicn.org/city/california/santa-clara/san-jose-jackson-st/

Apart from that Shenzen invest a lot in air quality:

- It is the first city in the world with electric buses only, 16,000 such electric buses to be precise,

- Shenzen metro has 303.40 km at the moment, more under construction: 108 km will be opened in 2020, additional 120 km in 2022, and 40 km later. Long term plan is to have 1,142 km of metro till 2030 (New York has 400 km ).

Edited by Marcin2
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

8 hours ago, frankfurter said:

I expect the published numbers are low balled. my comments in bold.

I believe numbers by Rob Plant are right. (2017 UNESCO estimation in PPP is 450 billion, so 278 billion 2018 nominal is OK)

The 2020 budget for Huawei is expected to be $20 billion, and the company will employ well over 100k engineers. That's just one company. China has many thousands more. Then add China's own MIC.

2019 Huawei data will be only in 2 months, in 2018 report R&D 14.5 billion USD and 80+ thousand R&D staff. Per expected constant R&D ratio at expected 2020 sales level you are right it would be 20 billion USD. Please give link to newer data or rumours if you have them.

On top of this, consider the % of population considered to be super intelligent, at say 1%. That's 14 million for China, and 4 million for USA. On top, consider the Chinese value education far far greater than 'murcans.  By any standard, brains + money = success. 

Being only intelligent can get you only as far as to MENSA (top 2% of population, need IQ over 146).

In order for your children to become high achievers their minds have to be stimulated by a good education system.

PISA testing (OECD plus China, India etc.) measures % of 15 year old kids that are top performers (level 5 or 6) in at least 1 area. 

13.3% of US kids in 2015 test were top performers,

25.6% of South Korean

27.7% of Chinese

0.6% of Mexican

kids in 2015 test were top performers.

So every year you get :

0.532 million US (0.133*4 million), 4.432 million Chinese (0.277*16) and 0.018 million Mexican (0.006*3) 15-year-olds that could be perceived as a base for future achievements (also in R&D).

But of course kids in US still have a little higher chances of development, currently only 40% of kids graduate with some kind of tertiary education in China, over 50% in US. But in China system is more rigorous and just, your future depends more on your quality than how much money you parents have.

Trump is doing all he can to stem the tide, even to the point of arresting key executives on bogus charges. The trade war will not bring jobs home. But 'murcans are too blind: your systemic cancers and debts are too great. 

I do not agree. Chaotic and inconsequential implementation of anti-Chinese measures and lack of engagement of allies actually only strengthens China (not visible in short-term).

 

 

Edited by Marcin2
typo
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0