Which type of Hegemony will China follow

[fozzir + 68]

On 1/27/2020 at 8:07 AM, Rob Plant said:

This ones especially for @Marcin2 

With China closing the gap on the US as the world hegemony, which type of hegemony model will it choose?

Benevolent

Coercive

or Dutch style

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/app5.273

My own view is Dutch style and I'm praying its not coercive!

 

China and hegemony does not go together.  Their model is to simply copy everyone else and their technology, how is that hedgemony?

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 hours ago, Marcin2 said:

Most of people are not aware, how lucky we actually are, that it is China that was affected by this tragedy, and not any other of the densely populated Asian countries. (What if it happened in India, Indonesia or Bangladesh)

I have not written at oilprice.com yet about this event but I think I should.

- Gene sequenced the genome and made it public on 10 Jan 2020, about 10 days after outbreak was identified as epidemy on 30-31 December 2019,

- Quarantined 50 million people on 23 Jan 2020,

- Mobilized vast medical, material and economic resources to fight the disease.

- Closed schools, factories, public transportation etc.

Per WHO assessment it was the best and most aggressive counter-reaction to the virus outbreak EVER. It probably saved millions of lives.

The virus outbreak happened at the worst place and the worst time (at top global transportation hub at a time of largest global seasonal holiday travel). The worst scenario possible.

The coincidence of these "worsts" have even caused the rise of many conspiracy theories: United States spread the virus in Wuhan as a bioweapon against Chinese rise (Russian's favourite), Rouge virus escaped from Wuhan lab that worked on bioweapons (all others favourite).

The data we have at present show that virus is very difficult to fight for some human organisms, and at the moment isolation is unfortunately  the only viable solution. The very low numbers of people that recovered (they get all these antiviral medicines, yet they are not helping much) show that individual fight wih the virus is relatively long as for virus infection. It is worse than most flu types.

We are lucky that the virus is not as contagious as typical flu.

Recent data show that we are reaching peak of epidemy intensity. Fortunately everything stayed in a relatively low numbers.

Epidemy of this type is the most dangerous for densely populated, large urban centers, with high people mobility.

That is why Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan (apart from China) are taking so aggressive measures.

 

 

The problem isn't in the ability to respond, but in the central party hierarchy where conscious decisions were made to prevent dissemination of warnings for the public and hold back the provincial and municipal level responses. It is clear evidence that the central hierarchy has ossified. The obsession of the PR and censorship with hiding what is going on and who and what institutions may be involved in failures and identifying the problems is the core of incompetence. It is the deranged paranoia of the current politburo and their obsession with control. 

I hope you are right and the tilt down in expansion is real rather than a PR contrivance. 

[0R0 + 6,251]

SCMP count

14k confirmed cases

304 deaths. <300 recovered.

Rate of confirmations may still be substantially lower than infections due to limited test kit supplies and patients not coming in to hospitals.

That still leaves an infection rate of now 5k per day by confirmations. Still sheds little light on the rate of spread.The linear looking chart looks like it is limited by something on a fixed production rate. That is not what infection curves look like. It is likely the result of a limit to the test kits. 

Suspected cases are still not reported reliably. 

 

[Marcin2 + 724]

3 hours ago, 0R0 said:

The problem isn't in the ability to respond, but in the central party hierarchy where conscious decisions were made to prevent dissemination of warnings for the public and hold back the provincial and municipal level responses. It is clear evidence that the central hierarchy has ossified. The obsession of the PR and censorship with hiding what is going on and who and what institutions may be involved in failures and identifying the problems is the core of incompetence. It is the deranged paranoia of the current politburo and their obsession with control. 

I hope you are right and the tilt down in expansion is real rather than a PR contrivance. 

When these malpractises have taken place ?

Please give any links.

On 22 January there were 600 cases and 17 deaths, yet they put 20 million people on lockdown the following morning and 30 million more next morning.

So these malpractises must have been earlier.

On 15 January 2020 virus identifying protocol was developed by Germany. and published by WHO.

On 10 January 2020 China finished gene sequencing (fastest one in the world in any outbreak) of virus genome (actually 4 of different genomes) and made it public. It shows sth opposite of hiding information. There were 41 cases at that moment.

In a major city of 10 million like New York or Wuhan in a flu or pneumonia epidemic period you can have 10,000 patients on 1 day, yet already about 1-5 of January 2020 they were able to take decisions and start decisive actions that later saved millions of lives - like this genome sequencing and later development of identifying protocols.

On 31 December 2019 China reported to WHO the 27 cases of unknown pneumonia. Not hiding per my understanding of "reported to WHO".

So it must have been earlier...

Please give any links, to any rumours you have heard about malpractices.

I do not want to defend dictatorship here, even if in this particular case they did a really good job.

But I also do not like losers (not you, just real life example), that do not help when car accident happens, but later have so many opinions how they would make it better than paramedics or dare to criticize people that actually had balls to help.

You are maybe not aware of the fact, but health authorities in many countries already conduct studies, and ask themselves questions: could we do this or that like Chinese did ? How much later ? or What could be done better ? It is the case of national security. I am sure many scientific papers and journalistic reports will be published on the subject, so we would definitely know the answer.

Of course hour by hour analysis, post factum analysis is always easier than real time decision making that affects billion people.

Edited February 1, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 minute ago, Marcin2 said:

When these malpractises have taken place ?

Please give any links.

On 22 January there were 600 cases and 17 deaths, yet they put 20 million people on lockdown the following morning and 30 million more next morning.

So these malpractises must have been earlier.

On 15 January 2020 virus identifying protocol was developed by Germany. and published by WHO.

On 10 January 2020 China finished gene sequencing (fastest one in the world in any outbreak) of virus genome (actually 4 of different genomes) and made it public. It shows sth opposite of hiding information. There were 41 cases at that moment.

In a major city of 10 million like New York or Wuhan in a flu or pneumonia epidemic period you can have 10,000 patients on 1 day, yet already about 1-5 of January 2020 they were able to take decisions and start decisive actions that later saved millions of lives - like this genome sequencing and later development of identifying protocols.

On 31 December 2019 China reported to WHO the 27 cases of unknown pneumonia. Not hiding per my understanding of "reported to WHO".

So it must have been earlier...

Please give any links, to any rumours you have heard about malpractices.

I do not want to defend dictatorship here, even if in this particular case they did a really good job.

But I also do not like losers, that do not help when car accident happens, but later have so many opinions how they would make it better than paramedics or dare to criticize people that actually had balls to help.

I suggest you go to the coronavirus discussion. Plenty of links there. The epidemic was identified as such in late December. Confirmed cases only started showing up when test kits made it to Wuhan in Jan 14. By then, suspected cases had reached 20k and a couple of days later there were 60k people under observation. It is up to you to be a CCP mouthpiece, or go check the facts. You can find twitter links where videos from Wuhan hospitals start long before the first "confirmed case" where ill people fill every space and dead bodies are in the corridors. Then you can go look at videos of dead bodies on the street. 

Your timeline ignores the fact that it is a clinically diagnosed disease even without the test kits. But in the interest of CCP PR they only released confirmed cases numbers (only possible with test kits) and still fight people over administering the tests for non-symptomatics that have been exposed.

Take into consideration that a high profile virology institute in Wuhan had every chance to come up with the sequence and test protocol. I am pretty sure that the German protocol wan't used to produce the test kits that arrived at Wuhan a day before it was published. 

The sequencing could have been made public earlier. It was not because of the information still being suppressed by the central government. 

I have no doubt that they were capable  of a quick response at the professional level. At the practitioner level the response was chaotic and counterproductive and promoted infection rather than curtailed it.  I am also certain that it was delayed and information suppressed because of CCP face saving considerations. 

Your demand for proof is clear evidence of your disbelief in the proof amply provided in the coronavirus thread. It throws doubt on the thought process behind your analysis in this thread. You can't seem to process the possibility that China's grandiose pronouncements and demonstrations are a Potemkin village just as much as a real program they are attempting to exercise, with varying lowish levels of success.

 

[Marcin2 + 724]

1 hour ago, 0R0 said:

I suggest you go to the coronavirus discussion. Plenty of links there. The epidemic was identified as such in late December. Confirmed cases only started showing up when test kits made it to Wuhan in Jan 14. By then, suspected cases had reached 20k and a couple of days later there were 60k people under observation. It is up to you to be a CCP mouthpiece, or go check the facts. You can find twitter links where videos from Wuhan hospitals start long before the first "confirmed case" where ill people fill every space and dead bodies are in the corridors. Then you can go look at videos of dead bodies on the street. 

Your timeline ignores the fact that it is a clinically diagnosed disease even without the test kits. But in the interest of CCP PR they only released confirmed cases numbers (only possible with test kits) and still fight people over administering the tests for non-symptomatics that have been exposed.

Take into consideration that a high profile virology institute in Wuhan had every chance to come up with the sequence and test protocol. I am pretty sure that the German protocol wan't used to produce the test kits that arrived at Wuhan a day before it was published. 

The sequencing could have been made public earlier. It was not because of the information still being suppressed by the central government. 

I have no doubt that they were capable  of a quick response at the professional level. At the practitioner level the response was chaotic and counterproductive and promoted infection rather than curtailed it.  I am also certain that it was delayed and information suppressed because of CCP face saving considerations. 

Your demand for proof is clear evidence of your disbelief in the proof amply provided in the coronavirus thread. It throws doubt on the thought process behind your analysis in this thread. You can't seem to process the possibility that China's grandiose pronouncements and demonstrations are a Potemkin village just as much as a real program they are attempting to exercise, with varying lowish levels of success.

 

Thanks, I watched some of the links in that thread and it seems, that Chinese authorities are just crazy about facade, to the point to let thousands of people die, truly insane.

In normal country you would have city wide or country wide information what to do: wear mask, do not travel etc.

There was information in 1 link that on 20 January 2020 in Wuhan they organized big eating and drinking event for 100,000 people, paradise for any virus,

Yes, these links prove that Chinese dictatorship  is a bunch of really crazy people, with 2 opposite faces:

a) they are good at big planning and execution, like infrastructure or quarantine

b) they actually do not care or are very ineffcient about fate of individual people, only keeping "harmony of the masses" is important, one thousand more or one thousand less will die, just a number.

What is really interesting for me: Do Chinese authorities believe that people are so stupid that they would not know about the reality: like this inadeqaute testing, severity of the disease, or lying about the number of cases. At the end of the day people would know the truth. I mean telling the truth costs nothing here.

What is the gain for them ? Are they so obsesive about loosing power ?

I think that CCP has some surveys/research that show that people just accept reality. Most would not turn on VPN connection to check the real world outside the wall. And the minority that cares could be afraid to turn on VPN for the probability of punishment.

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Marcin2
typo

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Marcin2 said:

Thanks, I watched some of the links in that thread and it seems, that Chinese authorities are just crazy about facade, to the point to let thousands of people die, truly insane.

In normal country you would have city wide or country wide information what to do: wear mask, do not travel etc.

There was information in 1 link that on 20 January 2020 in Wuhan they organized big eating and drinking event for 100,000 people, paradise for any virus,

Yes, these links prove that Chinese dictatorship  is a bunch of really crazy people, with 2 opposite faces:

a) they are good at big planning and execution, like infrastructure or quarantine

b) they actually do not care or are very ineffcient about fate of individual people, only keeping "harmony of the masses" is important, one thousand more or one thousand less will die, just a number.

What is really interesting for me: Do Chinese authorities believe that people are so stupid that they would not know about the reality: like this inadeqaute testing, severity of the disease, or lying about the number of cases. At the end of the day people would know the truth. I mean telling the truth costs nothing here.

What is the gain for them ? Are they so obsesive about loosing power ?

I think that CCP has some surveys/research that show that people just accept reality. Most would not turn on VPN connection to check the real world outside the wall. And the minority that cares could be afraid to turn on VPN for the probability of punishment.

 

Yes they are very afraid of losing power. In this case it was Golda Meir syndrome, where the party was paralyzed by fear of egg on their face if they pulled the trigger on raising the alarm just before the lunar new year's travel and shopping were to begin. At this point it isn't anything as nice as eggs on their faces. 

The big thing they rely on is precisely what you said about their research. You can see in some of the videos how older people just took the word of the early official statements that it is only flu and remained at home till a spouse or next door neighbor died and then they went to the hospital or died on the street on the way there. The younger generation is much more tech savvy and better educated and know how to evade detection online. But they are a much smaller population in China. The boomers are still ascribing the success they brought to China on their own, to the CCP - which simply stepped out of the way, so are true believers. Their grandkids are nothing like that. But as the 1 child policy had to, it caused that generation to be half the size of the boomers. They think their parents are stupid and the party incompetent.  They want to have Western freedoms and a real justice system. 

I have no clue what the young are going to do, but there is a rage going on after this that I never saw before among plain Chinese. Something else for the various religious minorities and ethnicities. Unlike their parents, they do not feel disposable for the CCP's interests.