Can You Corner a Market by Shorting it?

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Just wondering.  Managed money is approaching -400k short on natural gas according to Commitment of Traders.  Price is now unsustainable (under break even for most producers) and yet it continues to go down, and short interest is still going up.  

Obvious manipulation. Why and who? And don't give me "oversupply" bullshit because inventory levels are at 5 year average and production is collapsing or about to collapse.

[notsonice + 1,068]

17 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Just wondering.  Managed money is approaching -400k short on natural gas according to Commitment of Traders.  Price is now unsustainable (under break even for most producers) and yet it continues to go down, and short interest is still going up.  

Obvious manipulation. Why and who? And don't give me "oversupply" bullshit because inventory levels are at 5 year average and production is collapsing or about to collapse.

and production is collapsing or about to collapse ???? which one is it??? reality is neither US is flaring 2 percent of its production due to lack of pipeline capacity. Once pipeline capacity is upped in the Permian flaring will stop in Texas and more Gas fired power plants will come online and you might see a bump up in prices (and the disappearance of the producers having to give away gas to avoid flaring)  When KM's last pipeline came online (Gulf Coast Express) you saw a increase in supply and price (which was short lived) . Good luck waiting  for production to collapse to come out ahead on your long positions in gas. And deal with the oversupply, as it is apparent that you are not dealing with it all to well

[Zhong Lu + 845]

No position long or short currently.  I don't get in the way of a moving train.  I've posted my positions clearly on this forum (currently NOK).   Personally I'm just pissed at the stupidity of the "too much supply" people like you and wondering when it's time to go long and eat your lunch.

Prices aren't going down because of "too much supply." That argument is shit.  Prices are going down because there are more people shorting it.  It's currently a speculative bubble but in the other direction.

Edited February 10, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[notsonice + 1,068]

10 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

No position long or short currently.  I don't get in the way of a moving train.  I've posted my positions clearly on this forum (currently NOK).   Personally I'm just pissed at the stupidity of the "too much supply" people like you and wondering when it's time to go long and eat your lunch.

Prices aren't going down because of "too much supply." That argument is shit.  Prices are going down because there are more people shorting it.  It's currently a speculative bubble but in the other direction.

You sound like an ignorant fool for your own inability to understand what is going on in the gas market. You are complaining about prices going down and the short contracts and you cannot figure it out yourself? All you have is blaming others.... at the stupidity of the "too much supply" people like you?????? Dude you need professional help, go get yourself a mental health check.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

Blaming others for what? I'm making good money right now.  I only get angry over illogical situations for ETFs and stuff that I DON'T have money in currently.  If things don't go right for a position I'm in, I just sell. No point in getting angry about it.  I'm not dumb like you.

Piece of advice: if you see me get angry about something, it's because I DON'T have a position in it currently.  So keep on punching your imaginary straw man.  What a f-ing moron.  

Edited February 10, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[notsonice + 1,068]

[Zhong Lu + 845]

[notsonice + 1,068]

13 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Blaming others for what? I'm making good money right now.  I only get angry over illogical situations for ETFs and stuff that I DON'T have money in currently.  If things don't go right for a position I'm in, I just sell. No point in getting angry about it.  I'm not dumb like you.

Piece of advice: if you see me get angry about something, it's because I DON'T have a position in it currently.  So keep on punching your imaginary straw man.  What a f-ing moron.  

See the chart above, only a f-ing moron like yourself will not understand it. So I will point out the obvious, every time Oil takes a dive Gas does to. The reasons behind it have been published to death. Please keep posting your name calling insults. You make yourself look like an idiot every time you do.

[Zhong Lu + 845]

A common trade right now is to long oil and short gas, because fracking -> gas.  The reasons behind it have been published to death.  So keep on posting your name calling insults.  The facts speak otherwise.  Inventory are at 5 year average, and prices are at 5 year lows, so we have a disconnect, and yet we still have morons repeating the same shit over and over again "there's too much supply."  

EDIT: I.e. if there's too much supply, then why are inventory levels not going up? Appears to me demand is meeting supply right now.  And yet prices are still dropping. Why? 

Edited February 10, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[0R0 + 6,251]

1 hour ago, Zhong Lu said:

A common trade right now is to long oil and short gas, because fracking -> gas.  The reasons behind it have been published to death.  So keep on posting your name calling insults.  The facts speak otherwise.  Inventory are at 5 year average, and prices are at 5 year lows, so we have a disconnect, and yet we still have morons repeating the same shit over and over again "there's too much supply."  

EDIT: I.e. if there's too much supply, then why are inventory levels not going up? Appears to me demand is meeting supply right now.  And yet prices are still dropping. Why? 

Perhaps the 5 large new Ohio gas wells that just came online a month or two ago? Nobody is waiting for the gas to arrive in order to affect prices, they short it once it is known that it is coming. They will cover once drilling slows sufficiently such that lower supply is assured meaning that NG is likely to bottom while inventories are growing and above average. Look at the COTs for commercial hedgers to see if they are going long against the managed money shorts. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

3 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Blaming others for what? I'm making good money right now.  I only get angry over illogical situations for ETFs and stuff that I DON'T have money in currently.  If things don't go right for a position I'm in, I just sell. No point in getting angry about it.  I'm not dumb like you.

Piece of advice: if you see me get angry about something, it's because I DON'T have a position in it currently.  So keep on punching your imaginary straw man.  What a f-ing moron.  

In general you're kind of a toxic poster. 

[George8944 + 128]

With a child like view of the world, I propose that both short speculation and over supply is impacting the price of NG.   Zhong Lu views "supply" as only what is in storage.  I believe this is a limited view.  Storage only acts as a buffer to temporary demand.  Put another way, if supply in the ground went to zero, the supply above ground would be sucked down very quickly.  So "supply" is a combination of what's in storage and what is readily available to be produced.   Right now we can produce NG in excess of demand, hence a supply glut exists independent of what is saved above ground for a rainy day.

It is also well known that short selling can further depress a stock or commodity price if done on a large enough scale.  Normally with a stock the price gets so depressed the stock looks cheap compared to future earning and buyers return en mass and drive up prices.   (I'm ignoring a planned short squeeze by hedge funds for now.)  There are no future earnings per se for commodities like NG.  Prices will fall and the commodity will look cheap, but the only reason  buyers will rush in is if prices spike due to demand or physical supply from the ground is disrupted.   It's the physical supply part that makes commodity futures so much different than stocks.

Well,  I'll probably be called a moron or worse.  I was once told people resort to name calling when they have nothing more intelligent to say.

( I don't own any futures contracts.  I prefer hard assets like whiskey. )

[George8944 + 128]

One last thought on supply of NG.   If I'm reading the consumption table (link below) and the storage chart above accurately,  our current NG supply in storage is about one months worth.   We have a 4000 billion cubic feet of storage in the US.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/monthly/pdf/table_02.pdf 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

3 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

In general you're kind of a toxic poster. 

So sayeth "KeyboardWarrior."  I'm only toxic to people who are toxic to me.  Note how the second post in this thread was a personal insult.  I merely responded to remind everyone what a piece of shit he is for attacking first, without provocation.

Are you a piece of shit, Keyboard Warrior, or do you have the intelligence/self-awareness to NOT launch the first personal attack? 

Edited February 11, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[Zhong Lu + 845]

1 hour ago, George8944 said:

With a child like view of the world, I propose that both short speculation and over supply is impacting the price of NG.   Zhong Lu views "supply" as only what is in storage.  I believe this is a limited view.  Storage only acts as a buffer to temporary demand.  Put another way, if supply in the ground went to zero, the supply above ground would be sucked down very quickly.  So "supply" is a combination of what's in storage and what is readily available to be produced.   Right now we can produce NG in excess of demand, hence a supply glut exists independent of what is saved above ground for a rainy day.

It is also well known that short selling can further depress a stock or commodity price if done on a large enough scale.  Normally with a stock the price gets so depressed the stock looks cheap compared to future earning and buyers return en mass and drive up prices.   (I'm ignoring a planned short squeeze by hedge funds for now.)  There are no future earnings per se for commodities like NG.  Prices will fall and the commodity will look cheap, but the only reason  buyers will rush in is if prices spike due to demand or physical supply from the ground is disrupted.   It's the physical supply part that makes commodity futures so much different than stocks.

Well,  I'll probably be called a moron or worse.  I was once told people resort to name calling when they have nothing more intelligent to say.

( I don't own any futures contracts.  I prefer hard assets like whiskey. )

No you won't be called a moron because you did not launch an unprovoked personal attack.  Still thinking of how to respond, but you've made a reasonable point.  

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

9 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

So sayeth "KeyboardWarrior."  I'm only toxic to people who are toxic to me.  Note how the second post in this thread was a personal insult.  I merely responded to remind everyone what a piece of shit he is for attacking first, without provocation.

Are you a piece of shit, Keyboard Warrior, or do you have the intelligence/self-awareness to NOT launch the first personal attack? 

That was fun. Want to see me do it again? . 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

The major problem with your position, George, is that if both supply and demand curves shift right, price stays flat.  The inventory is a reflection of BOTH the supply and demand curves- the reason inventory is flat despite increasing supply is because demand is shifting right, too (increasing).  Consequently, price should stay flat.  And yet it's going down.  

[Zhong Lu + 845]

1 minute ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

That was fun. Want to see me do it again? . 

Obvious troll is obvious. Blocked.

Make relevant posts to the thread, or I'll complain.  

Edited February 11, 2020 by Zhong Lu

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

Just now, Zhong Lu said:

Obvious troll is obvious. Blocked.

Make relevant posts to the thread, or I'll complain.  

You're making my case very easy. Your posts are toxic. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

1 minute ago, Zhong Lu said:

Obvious troll is obvious. Blocked.

Make relevant posts to the thread, or I'll complain.  

You can't handle criticism, as is seen by your responses to anything that contradicts what you're saying. Notice how in one of your first messages you said that people who claim oversupply as a reason are morons. 

[Zhong Lu + 845]

5 hours ago, 0R0 said:

Perhaps the 5 large new Ohio gas wells that just came online a month or two ago? Nobody is waiting for the gas to arrive in order to affect prices, they short it once it is known that it is coming. They will cover once drilling slows sufficiently such that lower supply is assured meaning that NG is likely to bottom while inventories are growing and above average. Look at the COTs for commercial hedgers to see if they are going long against the managed money shorts. 

Perhaps, but the inventory levels are a reflection of both supply and demand.  In theory it shouldn't matter if more gas wells are coming in online if the inventory levels don't change. 

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

7 hours ago, notsonice said:

See the chart above, only a f-ing moron like yourself will not understand it. So I will point out the obvious, every time Oil takes a dive Gas does to. The reasons behind it have been published to death. Please keep posting your name calling insults. You make yourself look like an idiot every time you do.

Who even is this guy? 

[0R0 + 6,251]

4 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Who even is this guy? 

not so nice obviously

Edited February 11, 2020 by 0R0

[Zhong Lu + 845]

8 minutes ago, 0R0 said:

not so nice obviously

Just a guy mucking around, same as you. Wondering why natty prices are STILL going down.  Not the only one.

[0R0 + 6,251]

2 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

Just a guy mucking around, same as you. Wondering why natty prices are STILL going down.  Not the only one.

Presumably the LNG ships being turned away from China ports are expected to reduce the drawdown in the US.

Baltic dry index is at 0 for China bound capesize ships. 

 

How about the more direct effect of LNG as seen in LNG shipping rates?

The Wuhan coronavirus is definitely damping demand for anything other than medical protective gear and anti-virals.