Tom Kirkman

Charts of COVID-19 Fatality Rate by Age and Sex

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Question gents

What if you contract "ordinary flu" so you are run down, immune system already working hard etc,  and then you contract Covid-19?

I presume you can catch the 2 types simultaneously, I wonder what the death rate would be if there was also a significant "standard flu" outbreak at the same time?

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For your consideration.  I've seen this information before, repeatedly.

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1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

For your consideration.  I've seen this information before, repeatedly.

4a6d29425f0e88021f039c856d733cbaafafd3868c98dfd2f9484008c74aa914.png.c664a340f2cd07785a72c603244a8139.png

 

This might be doctor Nick's doctors surgery off the Simpsons

image.jpeg.a8b07d9e4eb76ea895c88e8acf0ae654.jpeg

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I have heard absolutely nothing concerning the impact of the corona virus on the LGBTEXYZ community. I have seen data on the effects by gender. This seems to be highly discriminatory!

How is this virus affecting trans or pan sexuals? Is this virus discriminating between straights and gays?

Somebody should look into this!!!

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1 minute ago, Rob Plant said:

This might be doctor Nick's doctors surgery off the Simpsons

image.jpeg.a8b07d9e4eb76ea895c88e8acf0ae654.jpeg

Are you saying that the data presented is false or inaccurate?

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16 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Are you saying that the data presented is false or inaccurate?

No its factual,  just dont buy into the election year conspiracy theory

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19 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I have heard absolutely nothing concerning the impact of the corona virus on the LGBTEXYZ community. I have seen data on the effects by gender. This seems to be highly discriminatory!

How is this virus affecting trans or pan sexuals? Is this virus discriminating between straights and gays?

Somebody should look into this!!!

I believe its a non-discriminatory virus unlike avian (birds) which clearly goes for women

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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

No its factual,  just dont buy into the election year conspiracy theory

How can you be on this forum without buying into conspiracy theories?😂

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3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How can you be on this forum without buying into conspiracy theories?😂

He didn't say he didn't buy into conspiracy theories - he just doesn't buy into the election year conspiracy theory...

Whew... thought we were going to have to ban Rob. Glad we got that figured out!

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what if these co-morbid conditions are so well controlled by medications that the blood sugar and pressure are better than normal range, as in a fit  69 year old vegan? Is this really co-morbid?

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At the moment I am reading ‘the SUN ON WEDNESDAY’, a local newspaper here in Kuala Lumpur. The front page photo is of an Italian soldier, complete with automatic weapon, in front of what appears to be a cathedral. The caption is “Extreme Measures...” Story on page 7.

Turning to page 7, we see the article titled, “Italy under lockdown”.

Okay, what is “lockdown”?:

- Travel restricted across the country.

- Marriages and funerals banned for 3 weeks.

- All forms of gatherings in public places or sites open to the public are banned.

Yet, bars and restaurants are allowed to open from 6am to 6pm as long as it is possible to ensure that customers can be separated by at least one metre. Religious institutions can remain open as long as they can ensure one metre separation as well.

Really? People will go to bars, restaurants and churches while maintaining 1 metre separation?

Does this sound like a ‘touchy, feel good’ approach to ‘lockdown’ to anybody else? This appears to be a case of the government trying to appear to be doing something, anything, to assure the public that they have everything under control.

What is the vaunted EU in Brussels doing to prevent the supposed pandemic?

This all appears to be fear driven political posturing.

The next article on page 7 is titled, ‘Cocaine cannot protect against Covid-19’.

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4 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

This all appears to be fear driven political posturing.

^ yep.

 

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On 2/24/2020 at 10:21 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

So if you are 80 years old, own a set of balls and smoke....you’re essentially toast if you contract this thing.

On 2/24/2020 at 4:41 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Pretty much.

Keep this in mind when reading about the virus.

If you are below 50 years old, relatively healthy, and don't smoke, it seems likely that you should recover, and not die. 

Statistically, being female reduces the risk of fatality as well.

Very old (over 80) male smokers may wish to get their affairs in order, regardless of the virus.

There are a few points to consider when discussing this issue:

The numbers are, of course, exaggerated due to the simple fact that the number of deaths is known, but the number of infections is largely unknown.

According to estimates and studies by the WHO, Imperial College of London, and other official organizations, the reported number of infected people in China, (where most of our data comes from), is only about 20% of the actual number, and in western countries about 30%.
This means that actual death rates are much MUCH lower than reported!

But even if we rely on the table above:
We have 14.8% for people 80+, multiplied by the percentage of males out of total deaths [2.8/(2.8+1.7)]=62.2% => 14.8*0.622=9.2%.
Even if we assume that 90% of pre-existing conditions are smoking-related, that's lower than 8.3%.

Again, that's without factoring the bias mentioned above, created by under-reporting of actual infected people... and other biases.

This doesn't mean you shouldn't take proper precautions and responsibility for your health, especially if you're in a high-risk group.
It does mean, however, that the official threat assessment is exaggerated, and obviously, the response to this threat is also exaggerated!
We don't yet know the effects of this exaggeration, and the number of deaths IT may cause.


There's another issue which I want to bring to your attention:
The percentage of deaths for 80+ is said to be 14.8% , this by itself is about the opposite of cancer related deaths, from what I've read, modern medicine's average success rate in keeping cancer patients alive for only five years is somewhere around 14%-15%, excluding the most aggressive types of cancer. This means the death rate for cancer is about 85%-86%!!!
The percentage of people with cancer out of the entire population is increasing every year, and as far as I know is now in the teens%... NOW, THERE'S A REAL PANDEMIC FOR YOU!!!


One last thing, IMHO the "virus" of fear is no-less deadly than any physical virus.
Take as much care avoiding it as you do avoiding physical infections.
 

Best of health to all

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On 2/24/2020 at 7:09 AM, Gerry Maddoux said:

If this virus mutates to a milder form--which they seldom do--then things will get better and these data will improve or stay the same. On the other hand, if this virus mutates to a more vicious form--which is likely--then these data will get worse. 

Just a couple of comments regarding Mr. Maddox's previous post (see quote above).  The statement that a "virus seldom mutates to a milder form -- which they seldom do...."  is likely due to the fact that if a biological pathogen does mutate to a more benign form, this would probably go unnoticed by the average Joe or credit may go to other factors (vaccine, health care improvement and etc.).  After all, not much news worthy about a wimpy virus, right?  The, "Hey the shark's swimming away! I wonder why?"  Who cares, it's not eating us.  
 

The virus mutating to a more virulent form is probably neither more nor less likely. Although the single stranded rna viruses tend to be prolific mutators, mutation alone doesn't drive virulence.  Witness our favorite group of single stranded rna viruses: the rhinoviruses, the chief culprits of the common cold.  Although people but more cold "remedies" than ever, I doubt very seriously that the cold has changed significantly in virulence.  Influenza viruses tend to wax and wan seasonally without any significant cyclic change in virulence. Some years more pathogenic than others.

One other comment regarding animal testing.  It is probably the FDA will only require safety testing in animals and perhaps an abbreviated round of efficacy testing, because there might not be a good animal model to evaluate efficacy. I'm guessing a few rounds of select human feasibility trials only then expedited review, dus to public health priorities. After all, the novel "flu shot" makes it to market annually and gets FDA clearance.

bob west

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Fact cherry-picking, what a lovely sport!

Meanwhile, in Italy, the death rate is almost 10 percent (and rising - it was 7 percent a few days ago), while Madrid does not look much better. New York has the potential to become a veritable nightmare with Trump's "laissez faire" approach to this deadly pandemic. 

After all, the Spanish flu from 1918 also began with a milder wave, then it struck again in the autumn and killed 100 millions of people worldwide. But what the hell, it was just a flu, right, Tom? A plain flu, only a bit Spanish, so why panic when our profits are at stake. 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

Pay attention to this sentence:

Cities that eased restrictions early saw a spike in cases.  

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4 minutes ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

After all, the Spanish flu from 1918 also began with a milder wave, then it struck again in the autumn and killed 100 millions of people worldwide. But what the hell, it was just a flu, right, Tom? A plain flu, only a bit Spanish, so why panic when our profits are at stake. 

It amuses me that I'm the bad guy now.

Carry on.

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4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

It amuses me that I'm the bad guy now.

Carry on.

For the record, I have never said you are a bad guy. And I am confident I would never say that, because I don't know you, at all (and I am aware of that). I only see your portrait, which, if I may say so, looks very civilized and nice. 

However, you sometimes say things that I strongly disagree with, and sometimes, I lose my temper and get angry. For that, I am sorry, I am using all the mitigation techniques I have learnt, I am putting pauses between my writeups to cool down the emotions, I am always waiting at least five minutes before submitting, I read my lines several times, I try to be rational even though I am often not, but I am a strongly opinionated choleric. To confront my opinions with those of others is, however, one of my basic needs. That's just how it is. 

If this can work as a sort of apology, I would be glad if it helped to soften the impact. I won't be probably able to do much better, sorry. 

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1 hour ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

If this can work as a sort of apology, I would be glad if it helped to soften the impact. I won't be probably able to do much better, sorry. 

No worries, relax, I was just being flippant.  A bit of wry humor.

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7 hours ago, Yoshiro Kamamura said:

Fact cherry-picking, what a lovely sport!

Meanwhile, in Italy, the death rate is almost 10 percent (and rising - it was 7 percent a few days ago), while Madrid does not look much better. New York has the potential to become a veritable nightmare with Trump's "laissez faire" approach to this deadly pandemic. 

After all, the Spanish flu from 1918 also began with a milder wave, then it struck again in the autumn and killed 100 millions of people worldwide. But what the hell, it was just a flu, right, Tom? A plain flu, only a bit Spanish, so why panic when our profits are at stake. 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu

Pay attention to this sentence:

Cities that eased restrictions early saw a spike in cases.  

There are a number of reasons that the fatality rate appears higher in Italy, even if you were at deaths door with 2 or 3 severe conditions and unlikely to live much longer...and then caught CV and then died they will put the death down to CV. It also sounds like it managed to get into some hospitals unknown and then infected people who were serious ill. It appears that it got in to carehomes in Italy and Spain as well.

The UK is preparing to remove restrictions in 2-3 weeks and now we're being told it is unlikely to overwhelm the NHS providing people follow the rules.

The vast majority of deaths are to people near the end of their lives who have 1-3 serious existing conditions and of course there are always the less usual cases where people younger have died but we are yet to find out if they had immune system problems and other health problems. You can also look and appear healthy and not know you have health problems, I'm sure many people have know of someone who appeared to be very healthy and fit and dropped dead of a heart attack out of the blue.

It looks like we're going to have a much better idea of the statistics so the fear mongers might want to think about that including journalists who threw out rediculous estimations over the last few weeks.

Hopefully we'll get this wrapped up soon and get back to normal before too much economic damage is done and we end up seeing a massive spike in suicides that could potentially outstrip deaths from the virus.

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Can we get a latest update on facts and figures of the below information, please?

Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

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8 hours ago, SE Mathew said:

 

Can we get a latest update on facts and figures of the below information, please?

Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

This has all the information and is live data apparently

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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