My hope for 2018 was an average of $65 oil (Brent).
My hope for 2019 is an average of $70 (Brent).
These are my own hopes and NOT price predictions. And I have been repeating these 2 numbers ad nauseum this entire year.
I remain consistent in my hope for a "relative balance" between supply & demand, with oil prices not too high to hurt the global economy, and not too low to hurt the long-term viability of oil companies.
Currently, the markets seem confused. I don't give a toss about the murkiness of oil trader shenanigans and maneuverings. I'm sticking with my hope for $70 oil [Brent] for 2019.
Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.
Anyway, enjoy this article by Art Berman:
Why Oil Prices Could Still Go Lower
Crude markets had a panic attack in August and September that sent prices soaring. Sanity is now returning. Prices have fallen but are likely to move even lower over the next few months.
The panic attack was caused largely by Trump’s August 7 announcement that sanctions would be re-imposed on Iran. Anxiety about the effect on oil supply and prices was reasonable but the reaction was hysterical.
... The last time a secular shift like this occurred was in early 2014. The previous deficit shifted to supply growth in the first quarter of 2014. Prices, however, remained above $100 until the third quarter. Brent begin to fall in earnest and then collapsed during the fourth quarter of 2014.
I am not suggesting that another oil price collapse is going to occur in 2019. I am saying that data indicates that lower rather than higher oil prices are more likely going forward.