Fred czubba

Once again “OIL” combined with political bluster and a provocateur has the world is in turmoil and everyone is hoping that somehow a peaceful resolution can bring things back into balance. With a theoretical amount of proven world reserves at 1,200 billion barrels (900 million are in the Mideast) the world economy should be running smoothly without any hiccups.

The total worldwide “OIL” consumption is roughly 90-100 million barrels per day (bbl/day) on average. Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar oil field which was attacked this week, produces half of all Saudi oil and is according to some the largest conventional oil reservoir on Earth.( I personally believe that Canada has a lot more than we can estimate at this time ,but of course as a lad from the far North I am a bit biased,) Ghawar is also  encountering productivity problems due to depletion. It has for some time required large quantities of water injection to maintain pressure and production rates. When Ghawar stumbles, and it will at some time in the foreseeable future, Saudi production and reserves will take a steep fall. (We can discuss the Saudi IPO some other time as we need to come to the realization that if this Iran -Saudi problem is not resolved there might not be an IPO.

The attacks on the Abqaiq crude separation facility by drones and cruise missiles this past week have shown substantial deficiencies in Saudi early warning detection systems and defensive countermeasures. The emergence of autonomous weapons, artificial intelligence and expert systems has basically negated the 80 plus billion dollars annual investment in the Saudi defense budget. We may also discover that these autonomous weapons will be the new ARMY of NONE. It would seem likely that this type of warfare will solely be airpower, missiles and satellite’s sending out GPS coordinates. If these actions develop into a full-scale military adventure, they will initially wreak havoc on industrial infrastructure and then move to civilian targets to weaken the will to fight.

I worked in Abqaiq in the late 70s at GOSP 3 when the main plant had a major explosion and fierce fire. It took days to put out the fires and weeks to rebuild. When I looked at the pics of the now damaged plant and based on a long career in the oil and gas industry, I was initially surprised how pinpoint accurate the weapons hit their targets and how little damage was done. I felt a disconnect with the number of drones and missiles and the damage that I saw. Perhaps someone else could provide a better explanation on this phenomenon.

The current situation with Iran, Saudi and a Mideast crew of smaller countries are in a state of turmoil and may be heading towards a cataclysmic juncture. We all hope that cooler heads prevail. Should the opposite happen (a total Mideast war) then we can assume that this will have a catastrophic effect and spin the entire globe in an economic spiral that will make the 1929 seem like a walk in the park. We know that 70% of all oil consumed globally is used for transportation. With the advent of “EV’’s liquid fuels will be displaced with more advanced electric battery technology. This type of power is also been proven on ships and certainly long-haul trucks. We highly doubt that aircraft will ever be “E” powered in the foreseeable future, however that could change. A recent Bank of America study has determined that by 2030 the demand for liquid fuels for passenger vehicles will level off and begin to decrease.

We do see a world that that in the future will be fusion powered at some point and many companies are working in that direction. A proven FUSION powered solution will resolve many issues related to a cleaner and more efficient power source for this planet. 

Let’s hope that the current situation can be resolved without an all-out full-blown war which in the end will not resolve the issue at hand and will not clearly define a winner.

Friday Note: This is my short as possible update on the supply side of oil as it relates to the   situation of Iran, Iraq, Saudi and the other OPEC partners including North American Shale Oil. The situation this week based on the tanker incidents and the Iranian shootdown of the American drone in the Persian Gulf (also known as the Arabian Gulf) seems quite volatile with many pundits painting a bleak picture of long gasoline lines and sky-high prices if the situation goes ballistic. It is important to point out that Iran needs cash to replenish its coffers and rebuild their economy after years of sanctions. Historically Iran could jack up production up to 4MM Bbls/day. That is something both OPEC and North American shale producers do not want to  see as it would drive the price of oil to below 40$ /bbl. We always need to look at the supply and demand models and therein lies the key that basically says the members of this exclusive club (OPEC) meet as required to set production quotas for the members of their illegal “cartel”, OPEC. North American shale has already upset the OPEC applecart to some degree. The current situation is such that a small group in Iran and an identical group in the USA are pressing for a retaliatory strike to show strength and resolve. ). However, what if a revised nuclear deal was brokered with Iran and everyone agreed? The US and Iranian leadership both know that a war will cause disruption the world has not seen for some time. An all-out war could lead to regime change from the inside in Iraq and change the election trends in the USA. Let us hope that cooler heads prevail.

P.S. Personally, I would like to see a global competitive market where a NOPEC replaces OPEC.