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  2. With all due respect, none of this should be surprising. These types of operations may not be routine but foreign owned companies have no real say in China. Why they continued to invest while whining all the way is legend.
  3. Today

  4. Oil: more automation, fewer jobs

    a topic posted Dan Clemmensen in Oil (General)

    Irina Slav's new article is about remote working: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Oil-And-Gas-Industry-Is-Going-Remote.html But this is just the latest act of a long play. The industry did not have much incentive to become more productive while OPEC kept the oil price artificially high. This ended in 2014. Companies were forced to find ways to reduce costs while maintaining production, and lots of folks lost their jobs. The new way of operating was more efficient: more oil per man-hour, and those jobs did not come back. Fast-forward to 2020: prices crashed, more jobs lost, and companies finding yet more ways to lower costs by increasing productivity. These new operational methods won't go away, so those jobs won't come back either. There are two equally valid ways to describe exactly the same process Increased productivity improves income and allows us to pay each worker more while lowering prices. Increased productivity lets us reduce the workforce. The actual result depends on demand for the product. If demand increases faster than productivity, you need more workers. If demand increases more slowly than productivity, you need less workers. But the decreasing demand scenario includes a nasty feedback loop: it provides a strong incentive to lower prices, which provides a strong incentive to increase productivity. In teh case of oil the ability to increase productivity quickly was made easier by the slop in the system caused by OPEC's artificially high prices.
  5. They must maintain the dividend. The Sovereign Wealth Fund owns 98.5% of the stock. ARAMCO guaranteed the dividend for 5 years. What will the oil industry look like in 5 years ?
  6. I am against Carbon taxes, I mean making all US consumers pay at least 70% of global market prices for natural gas, not 30% as it is at present. I mean long term slow changes towards conservation of hydrocarbons over 40 years. To go down from 5 to 3-3.5 ton s of consumption of crude oil equivalent per capita in 40 years. Your next car could have better fuel efficiency lets say 40 miles per gallon. With tax credits you would insulate your home and buy more efficient heating systems in 15 years. The change will inevitably come No matter what you would do now. I am afraid that US hydrocarbons addiction will lead to WW3. US needs to keep high military budget in order to secure all the worlds oil. So add 500 billion dollars to your oil bill. 36 dollars to every barrel consumed. It is vicious circle and short term thinking. With current economic growth in developing world price of oil will again skyrocket in 5 years to over 100 USD per bbl. US would need to change consumption habits in the future, it is better to start now , not when oil hits 200 USD.
  7. The odds on favorite has to be

  8. Open letter from Politico about US-russian relations

    Tomasz replied to topic's Douglas Buckland in Geopolitics

    The Taliban will turn a blind eye to the poppy fields. They will ‘tax’ it as a revenue source.
  9. This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 136,940 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through April 2020. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 14.8 billion bbl and 167 Tcf of natural gas. Ohio and West Virginia are excluded from this update, as their production data is only reported through March. Total production US tight oil & gas production fell by about 700 kbo/d and 2.5 Bcf/d in April (after upcoming revisions) respectively, the largest absolute and relative m-o-m declines since the start of the shale boom. Of course the low, and even negative, oil prices in March and April were the main cause, which led many operators to shut in their oil wells. Supply Projection dashboard In the past 3 weeks, the horizontal rig count has stabilized at a level just above 200, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. Our Supply Projection dashboard reveals that this level isn’t enough to keep production from falling in the months and years ahead: Tight oil supply outlook based on current D&C activity Tight oil production may fall to around 5 million bo/d by the end of next year, as is displayed in the tooltip in the screenshot, all else being equal (rig count & productivity). Well productivity In the “Well quality” tab you can find the production profiles for all these wells, with the main tight oil basins pre-selected. Well results are still at an all-time high, but no longer significantly improving. Top operators Not all major operators decided to reduce supply in April, as you will find in the final tab (“Top operators”). EOG, the number 1, did and its output fell by 100 kbo/d in April or about 1/6th. Advanced Insights This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. ShaleProfile Analytics improvements We have used the time during this pandemic to work on some major improvements to our services: Well economics. A new dashboard is now available, with which it is very easy to perform an economic evaluation on any number of selected wells. See the remaining NPV in a table, or on a map, or simulate what a new drill could be worth. You can set your own assumptions (NRI, well costs, etc) while CME prices are imported every day. Our own production forecasts are used, which we have thoroughly tested on forecasting accuracy, leaving you to focus on the right assumptions and examining the results. Directional surveys. We have now directional survey data for over half of the wells in our database (mainly in Texas, North Dakota and Colorado). This allows us to show them very precisely on a map, and improve our lateral length calculations. This also made it possible for us to determine how well spacing relates to well productivity (see the next item). Directional survey data is now also included in our ShaleProfile Data service. Well spacing. A new dashboard will be available soon (within 2 weeks) in our service, in which we can show how well spacing relates to productivity. As usual, our service easily aggregates the results for you, so you can quickly see the forest through the trees. We’re happy to provide free trials and demos to show you how this all could help you! Finally Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released June production data (already available in our subscription services). The state saw a small uptick in output in June. Production data is subject to revisions. Sources For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division Oklahoma Tax Commission Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3iqhVwj Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile LinkedIn: ShaleProfile Facebook: ShaleProfile
  10. These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 136,940 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through April 2020. Cumulative oil and gas production from these wells reached 14.8 billion bbl and 167 Tcf of natural gas. Ohio and West Virginia are excluded from this update, as their production data is only reported through March. Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard Total production US tight oil & gas production fell by about 700 kbo/d and 2.5 Bcf/d in April (after upcoming revisions) respectively, the largest absolute and relative m-o-m declines since the start of the shale boom. Of course the low, and even negative, oil prices in March and April were the main cause, which led many operators to shut in their oil wells. Supply Projection dashboard In the past 3 weeks, the horizontal rig count has stabilized at a level just above 200, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. Our Supply Projection dashboard reveals that this level isn’t enough to keep production from falling in the months and years ahead: Tight oil supply outlook based on current D&C activity Tight oil production may fall to around 5 million bo/d by the end of next year, as is displayed in the tooltip in the screenshot, all else being equal (rig count & productivity). Well productivity In the “Well quality” tab you can find the production profiles for all these wells, with the main tight oil basins pre-selected. Well results are still at an all-time high, but no longer significantly improving. Top operators Not all major operators decided to reduce supply in April, as you will find in the final tab (“Top operators”). EOG, the number 1, did and its output fell by 100 kbo/d in April or about 1/6th. Advanced Insights This “Ultimate recovery” overview shows the relationship between production rates and cumulative production over time. The oil basins are preselected and the wells are grouped by the year in which production started. ShaleProfile Analytics improvements We have used the time during this pandemic to work on some major improvements to our services: Well economics. A new dashboard is now available, with which it is very easy to perform an economic evaluation on any number of selected wells. See the remaining NPV in a table, or on a map, or simulate what a new drill could be worth. You can set your own assumptions (NRI, well costs, etc) while CME prices are imported every day. Our own production forecasts are used, which we have thoroughly tested on forecasting accuracy, leaving you to focus on the right assumptions and examining the results. Directional surveys. We have now directional survey data for over half of the wells in our database (mainly in Texas, North Dakota and Colorado). This allows us to show them very precisely on a map, and improve our lateral length calculations. This also made it possible for us to determine how well spacing relates to well productivity (see the next item). Directional survey data is now also included in our ShaleProfile Data service. Well spacing. A new dashboard will be available soon (within 2 weeks) in our service, in which we can show how well spacing relates to productivity. As usual, our service easily aggregates the results for you, so you can quickly see the forest through the trees. We’re happy to provide free trials and demos to show you how this all could help you! Finally Early next week we will have a new post on North Dakota, which just released June production data (already available in our subscription services). The state saw a small uptick in output in June. Production data is subject to revisions. Sources For these presentations, we used data gathered from the sources listed below. FracFocus.org Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission Colorado Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. Similar to Texas, lease/unit production is allocated over wells in order to estimate their individual production histories. Montana Board of Oil and Gas New Mexico Oil Conservation Commission North Dakota Department of Natural Resources Ohio Department of Natural Resources Oklahoma Corporation Commission – Oil & Gas Division Oklahoma Tax Commission Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Texas Railroad Commission. Individual well production is estimated through the allocation of lease production data over the wells in a lease, and from pending lease production data. Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining Automated Geographic Reference Center of Utah. West Virginia Department of Environmental Protection West Virginia Geological & Economic Survey Wyoming Oil & Gas Conservation Commission Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3iqhVwj Follow us on Social Media: Twitter: @ShaleProfile LinkedIn: ShaleProfile Facebook: ShaleProfile
  11. Another great video on the reality of actual herd immunity in all of Europe, the clear evidence that masks made no difference anywhere they were used vs. where they are not used in any CV19 statistic. Prof. of immunology at Bern Switzerland. Great interviewer as well. Great term to describe the panicked denial of immunity and its possibility. "immunity deniers" CV19 as a religious cult of a magical virus that believers claim has no viral properties. That the European and Northern US city charts of the pandemic are exactly natural community immunity curves. Shutdowns hardly did a thing Charting a shutdown intensity index against mortality and other pandemic measures shows no effect. The Simpson seasonal flu curves fit perfectly to the Northern outbreaks and the warm climate curves. Because of the wet hot areas have similar behaviors into air conditioned closed spaces like heated closed spaces of the North in Winter they also follow the Northern pattern.
  12. So far, the only thing Trump has achieved with his protectionism was GM moving its production plants to China: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/08/30/donald-trump-scolds-general-motors-for-moving-plants-to-china-after-bailout/ A classic, cold, profit-seeking move from GM. First, calmly collecting any money there was to be collected (a fool, who hands out free gifts, twice the fool who does not accept them), then doing what was originally planned anyway.

  13. Trumpist lies about coronavirus too bad for Facebook - BANNED!

    Yoshiro Kamamura replied to topic's Enthalpic in Geopolitics

    Testosterone replacement is not a panacea; obviously women have less of it and tend to live longer. I do support some short term use of testosterone supplementation, or aromatase blockage, as an interventional therapy. Adipose tissue releases hormonal signals that keep you fat. It makes a vicious feedback loop; "Can't exercise well because I'm fat" while the fat is hormonally telling you to get even fatter. Thus, a short-term drug that cuts off the get even fatter feedback from the adipose tissue can be warranted. If you choose to use the stuff for longer terms, or large amounts, it is trading quality of life for quantity of life (live fast die young).

  14. China's impending economic meltdown

    Ward Smith replied to topic's Wombat in Geopolitics

    Yoshi got one thing right: "at the expense of the USA"! He is still in denial that "the strategic patience of the USA is over"?

  15. The Truth about Chinese and Indian Engineering

    Douglas Buckland replied to topic's Enthalpic in Geopolitics

    Look around any North American campus... they attend the best schools.
  16. Yesterday

  17. Why Oil could hit $100

    Top Oil Trader replied to topic's Rob Kramer in Oil (General)

    Just saw this from a notification. Very accurate as to what's happened . Brent ended 4 weeks in a row within a dime and popped last week a bit. Rigs have trickled down tho (in number) I think there moving total rigs to oily areas with faster payoffs and more gassy areas with low pumping costs (as opposed to mixed wells) .
  18. Hell no! Now, every time I see Brazile on a Fox panel, I want to throw up in my shoe. If CNN is taking the lead on the debates, it will make Crossfire Hurricane look like a minor spying operation. Hopefully, they'll invite Charlamagne the God to participate and juice up the circus performance.

  19. Brent above $45. Holding breath for $50??

    Keith boyd replied to topic's JoMack in Oil (General)

    When Obama arrived in office, access to federal lands was pretty much outlawed. Competitive oil and gas leasing in New Mexico (Permian Basin) went from 4 sales a year to 1 a year. During that time, the industry had to nominate the tracts and give data. Of course, competition is the life blood of the oil and gas industry so no actual competitive leasing took place. However, what did happen was horizontal drilling and enhanced fracing technology took place. There are more than just Majors and large independents in the industry and the smaller independents will again find ways to profit even at staggeringly low prices. The independents that actually take the risk and find fields that were left as too tight, went the distance and found that exploration could be done with horizontal wells and hydraulic fracing. More than one independent used a well pad to drill up to 3 or 4 wells to different depths. The industry is volatile as everyone knows, but the School of Mines, OU, UT, etc. still bring the brightest minds to the oil and gas business. There is one thing the oil and gas industry knows how to do and that's overcome whatever obstacles are put in its way. When Biden and his liberal handlers check the balance sheet from oil and gas taxes and revenue, even they will accept the fact that oil and gas pays a lot of money to the U.S. Treasury.
  20. So agree with the demand comment. Brent is likely to pull WTI in the coming months. Europe fuel requirements are back to around 90% of pre-covid I should add that the effect in the dollar is resulting from the same reason that Brent is rising. The Eurodollar system financing trade and global manufacturing creates dollar balances as economic activity increases, since it funds the working capital increases. Thus the dollar falls for the same reason Brent prices rise. It isn't so much that one causes the other. Part of the reason the dollar had been so strong in recent years was the decline in Eurodollar supply growth with decelerating activity, thus creating a shortage of dollars. This shortage caused a draw on US cash Repo and reserves and the repo crisis of late 2018 and again 2019. Once activity stabilizes rather than accelerating rapidly in the rebound period, the prior condition will return of a liquidity constrained Eurodollar system. I have intended to comment for a while on this forum that the dollar outside of the US, operates like a gold standard via the Eurodollar banking system. Thus the US financial system is the "gold mine" and the Eurodollar banks tap it for cash liquidity. Since the Eurodollar system and the global trade economy are about the same in scale as the US economy, the deflationary aspect of it is imported into the US trade and finance. Particularly when the Eurodollar system is strained and sucks out cash via repos and cash correspondent accts.

  21. Oil Tanker Runs Aground in Mauritius - Oil Spill

    Dan Warnick replied to topic's specinho in Oil (General)

    We are carrying oil in ships that could be wrecked by merely coral reef?? 😳

  22. Pompeo upsets China; oil & gas prices to fall

    Qanoil replied to topic's Prometheus1354 in Oil (General)

    The term 'Redneck' is a term of derision heaped upon people of the South or Rural America by the Elites in Big cities like NY & LA. I Proudly wear the Label, as I'm certainly No Elite... As for how many 'Rednecks' voted for the Lump Obama; I can't say. I didn't because I don't subscribe too the Socialist agenda of the DNC. Period. Full Stop. As for who & how many voted for then Candidate Trump; he galvanized a very Real pent up Anger towards the aggressive overreach the Left were in process of when the '16 election dropped. A % of people who identify as Dem's also voted for Trump as they just couldn't bring themselves to vote for that Sack of it in a Pant Suit HilLIARy...
  23. PS: Especially those geologists that are paid by the Oil & Gas industry!!!

  24. The World is Facing a Solar Panel Waste Problem

    ronwagn replied to topic's NickW in Renewables

    The plug (PIG) they send down the pipeline scraps out the scale - the radioactivity is in the scale that accumulates / embeds on the plug face and walls . The source is mainly Lead 208 which has decayed from Radon and precipitates out as a metal component of the scale.
  25. Last week
  26. Two great articles! that everyone should read. The changes in India under Modi are remarkable. He needs to lighten up on other religions IMHO. Hopefully he will be able to reduce the poverty. It sounds even worse than I thought, as well as the basic medical care. Here is my India topic. I added both of your stories. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1bjjvSONHPNUCbLuE_n22VH2AOw8rS-sqS1E4CF14wdA/edit#

  27. Trump Suggests Delaying Election Amid Fraud Claims

    rainman replied to topic's ronwagn in Geopolitics

    If Biden wins and Demoncrats gain control of both houses we may soon be a virtual dictatorship by your definition. They are very adept at using the levers of power to increase their control. Republicans have been very poor at that because it was never their goal to undermine the American system. If we face a government which seeks to ignore our Constitutional Rights then there will be a rebellion or hundreds of rebellions and many ways and means of opposition. The government will not be allowed to take away our rights without using the legal processes outlined in our Constitution. That requires an overwhelming agreement by the vote of the states passing amendments. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_amendment

  28. Biden declares for China

    0R0 replied to topic's 0R0 in Geopolitics

    I suggest you find some reference where I indicate such a thing. Russia is not a regime I support. It is facing problems like China has and is working with China in a strategic partnership. That they do have points of disagreement does not make either one more beneficial to the US. The only question is which one is worse and would there be a benefit from peeling off Russia away from its partnership with China, or just fight the economic/social war against them both at the same time.

  29. Sell Natural Gas Benefits to Grow the Market!

    ronwagn replied to topic's ronwagn in Nat Gas / LNG

    Apparently our value systems are somewhat similar. I grew up in the Crenshaw District of Los Angeles when it was White. We then moved to Inglewood to a better area with better schools. It was turning mildly Black when I went into the army. The old areas look even better than when I lived there, but the Crenshaw district is high crime and Inglewood is probably a high crime district too now. The real estate is very valuable. When I bought my first home at the end of the 60 freeway in southern West Covina It was $23,500. 42 months later I sold it for $40,500 and moved to Auburn northeast of Sacramento into a beautiful pine studded area of the Gold Country at 4,000 feet. Both of those homes are probably $500,000 right now. I lost out financially but gained in overall lifestyle eventually. A transfer with a management job moved me to Bakersfield where housing was still cheap (But interest rates were sky high then). I tried Seattle later but ended up in my wifes tiny hometown in central Illinois. I have been here for 34 years and would not change a thing. I might have been very happy staying in Auburn, CA though. Around Decatur we have a high crime urban core and lots of very desirable suburbs plus rural areas all around. Good liveable homes start at $ 25,000 in sketchy neighborhoods of Decatur. (Not bad neighborhoods, but not good either). An average home in an average neighborhood is about $100,000. For $250,000 you can can get a very nice big home on a large lot or a few acres, maybe even on Lake Decatur. We bought houses for two of our daughters who needed the help. Illinois is now run by Chicago and taxes are high and will go higher. I would recommend a Redder state like Missouri, Tennessee, Idaho, Utah, or wherever but some of those may go Blue in the future too. Make your money where you can and move to a cheaper area when you don't need a high income. Many Californians can live off of their excess equity but may pay an extremely high tax penalty. I forgot to mention that I have a high functioning autistic grand daughter who lives in one of the two extra houses we bought. She needs help keeping it neat and clean but that is the way it is. We adopted her after her mom died of leukemia.
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