All Activity

Showing all content posted in for the last 365 days.

This stream auto-updates   

  1. Past hour
  2. traders

    I’m Abdi I work for EAGOL kenya and i’m look oil Strong trader that want joint East Africa market.
  3. This is about dinosaurs? HAHAHA I'm not vegan. But I would rather we didn't use a huge percent of the land on the planet for animals to eat, and then we kill them. This land could be used to grow crops and actually feed the whole world. That's 1 reason out of like 100. Not getting into this mate. No offence. Argued 20 years about this shit.
  4. Okay, I retract my original post as it has simply turned into a US bashing exercise with no real insight to be gained, much to my chagrin. It is bullshit such as this that puts people off from posting a new thread about any issue whatsoever.
  5. The problem with China, like Iran, is not the people, but the government. At some point, both governments will fall.
  6. Today
  7. My point was that you had no way of knowing, for sure, how far this event would escalate. Were these guys on drugs? You don’t know. Would you have reacted differently if you had been with your wife, your girlfriend, or your daughter? If somebody asked for my wallet (robbed me), I had given it to them and THEN they began to hit me (as per your timeline), I would have started to question just how far they were going to go - you had already complied and handed over your wallet... Personally, If I was armed at this point, I would have started shooting. These guys had confirmed that they were criminals (they had successfully robbed you), they had shown that this was going to escalate (they proceeded to assault you), and you could not possibly know what the end game was going to be. If you choose to accept this, this is up to you. I am going to do everything legally in my power to get home and live another day. If this means killing people like this, so be it, they brought it on themselves.
  8. So only Silicon Valley tax dollars? Doubtful. I thought the Silicon Valley tax dollars were used to float the socialistic welfare programs of the California boat. You know, free needles, illegal immigration, sanctuary cities, the 9th Circuit Court, etc...
  9. "we are approaching the ends of both the short-term and long-term debt cycles in the world’s three major reserve currencies" The last number I've seen on 'negative yielding debt' is that it is in the range of $17 trillion, or more than one third of all global debt outstanding. There has never been an 'end to a debt cycle' with 'negative yielding debt', much less one third of it. The 'three major reserve currencies' are presumably the USD, EUR, and UKP. The 'end' of a 'cycle' is presumably some sort of default where a bunch of loans go sour and creditors suffer severe setbacks or are wiped out. It's worth pointing out that the USD had a 'wipeout' in the late 1980s (S&L Crisis, mopped up by the Resolution Trust Corporation) and another one in 2008. The US has a habit of forcing banks to write off bad loans quickly. In the larger scheme of things this is unusual - countries like Japan have 'zombies' that banks keep alive so that they don't have to admit they made bad loans. Europe also tends to treat defaults as a 'stain on the family name', therefore Europeans tend to be risk averse. The exception within the US is student loans - and this is having effects in the US similar to the 'zombie' problems elsewhere. These lessons are percolating through the rest of the world. Increasingly other countries are learning to be more failure tolerant. This keeps mountains of bad debts from stifling economic development. "the debt and non-debt obligations (e.g., healthcare and pensions) that are coming at us are larger than the incomes that are required to fund them" 'Non-debt' obligations are probably better understood as 'debts to nature'. Deforesting a continent (as is occurring in Africa and South America) not only removes the global 'lungs' it also removes the ground cover responsible for water retention. This lowers flows in rivers such as the Amazon and Congo. Rising urban water demand combined with lower fresh water supplies creates exponentially increasing costs. Most industrialized country consumers have noticed that air travel is 'dirt cheap' in at least some contexts. Some of the passengers are human, some of them are microbial, and some are stashed away in baggage or on the exterior surfaces of the aircraft. Thus we get iguanas and pythons in Florida, SARS infections scattered to every corner of the globe in weeks, 'exploding' trees, and 'poison carrots'. Countries with poor health care practices are breeding 'superbugs' that spread 'everywhere'. These 'costs' are rising faster than simply caring for old people. They have little to do with money - they are more related to the human capacity to respond with drugs, quarantines, or medical staff. Yeast mixed with grape juice in a bottle creates a textbook case of eating up resources while being exterminated in the accumulating poison. A number of human populations on islands have had this experience, Easter Island being one example. The human gene pool shows evidence of a 'die-off' 70,000 years ago, most likely from a catastrophic volcanic eruption. Humans can poison their nests, but there are plenty of other events that humans have no control over that will have the same effect. "large wealth and political gaps are producing political conflicts within countries that are characterized by larger and more extreme levels of internal conflicts between the rich and the poor and between capitalists and socialists" France (as well as most of Europe) had vast 'wealth and political gaps' from the 14th century to 1789. 'Something' triggered a revolt that overturned the old order - crop failures most likely caused by a volcano in Iceland. The archaeological evidence in Central America suggests that various civilizations there expanded over centuries then collapsed catastrophically. When the ruling class was no longer viewed as credible they were simply carried out with the trash. Digging among the ruins suggests excessive cultivation, water shortages, soil erosion, and drought. The Arab Spring was basic 'fight or flight'. If someone can't earn a living and are at risk of starvation, they are going to die whether or not they confront the power structure, therefore the power structure is at risk. The US and the rest of the Western world is not at this point, at least not yet. Whether deprivation that triggers such a circumstance comes from natural catastrophe, human failure, or wholesale political neglect is a detail. "external politics is driven by the rising of an emerging power (China) to challenge the existing world power (the U.S.), which is leading to a more extreme external conflict and will eventually lead to a change in the world order" Spain, England, and France were all 'global powers' as humanity entered the scientific and industrialized era. The Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian empires might not have been 'global', but they were certainly expansive. Both of the latter 'disappeared' as a result of WW I. The population of a country like Spain attempting to rule all of Central and South America (as well as the Philippines) would have been exhausting. This demands more than is physically possible. The British did it for as long as they did because they had steamships, telecommunications, and better guns, however their defense commitments bankrupted them in the end. The US doesn't maintain a global empire of colonies. China's expansionary actions seem to be more focused on it's 'back yard': the Himalayas and the South China Sea. Neither the US nor China are attempting what Spain and Britain did globally, or the idea that the Soviet Union was going the 'rule the world' in a Communist 'one world government'. The Romans were 'expansionary' until Hadrian built a wall across Britain. From that point forward Rome began giving up control, either due to lack of will or natural catastrophe. The 21st century is full of more wall building (China, the US, Israel, India, and 'effectively' Australia) more than it is about territorial acquisition. There is more interest in gaining control of markets than there is gaining 'political hegemony'. Markets tend to 'materialize out of nowhere', so there is often room to expand in domains that didn't exist in prior generations. There is no doubt there will be a 'change in the world order', since it is changing all the time. For someone of retirement age right now, the fears were, at various times, Germany, the Soviet Union, Japan, and/or China. Interest rates and bond markets are pretty small potatoes in the larger context. People that look at human affairs in the context of financial markets have lost sight of the bigger picture.
  10. In arguments against the likes of you, I've gotten plenty of Europeans to admit that their local drug dealers have illegal firearms despite the laws in the area. The "typical Republican talking point" about criminals obtaining guns when they want them actually holds true.
  11. If you are driving 70 anywhere west of the Mississippi you are being passed by 99% of all vehicles.
  12. For how many years now have the Houthies been bombed relentlessly by the Saudis? Now a $125 a month Houthie soldier has a lot more stake in the game than a Saudi one, a the Saudis are destroying what is left of Yemen's infrastructure but at best it's a draw in a war of MBS's choosing, against his own advisors recommendations. A very large percentage of Saudi people are Yemenis and the Houthies probably can manage some on the ground support in Saudi. No shortage of folks in the country who would be happy for something other than the House of Saud. Houthies are not historically aligned with Iran, and they do not share Shia Mullahs. The Houthies are practicing asymmetric warfare. Iran mostly is benefitting, but I suspect this might scare Iran too. KSA needs fundamental leadership change to get out of their self-induced death spiral. So does Iran. Yemen doesn't even have a government to go after. Neither side is likely to do that. Expect shenanigans to continue.
  13. Yesterday
  14. It's a dirty secret in manufacturing what a small percentage of the total cost is touch labor in a lot of industries. I used to not even track it.
  15. One point which should be explored is how long do these molecules remain in the atmosphere once they are emitted? CO2 molecules supposedly hang around for eight years or so, although greenhouse theory has some convoluted theory about how the additional volumes caused by emissions are present for decades although the individual molecules get swapped out - I don't understand that, but the key point is there's a long shelf life. I seem to recall someone telling me that individual water molecules only hang in the atmosphere for a matter of weeks.. SF6 sounds heavy so maybe it settles out pretty quick. Any information??
  16. And that is thin film, not silicon photo voltaic. Better at handling heat, less efficient, but really it's cost per watt that matters. Ten years ago many viewed thin films was going to become dominant.
  17. Yep, I don't believe a word of it. Short the hell out of the pop and buy the big dip if anything.
  18. @Gerry Maddoux All good points. The attack on the Saudi oil facilities this weekend is a big escalation. Clearly an operation run by Iran. Iran knew on Tuesday that Bolton was fired, and Trump offered to talk to them later in the week. Trump comes out looking like a dove. Now Iran has done this and it plays right into the hands of the hard-liners in the Trump admin and it might even shift the Europeans more to the American point-of-view. The attack also benefits the United States because the U.S. is the largest oil power now. High prices are great for us and help alleviate the $400 billion shale debt bubble. Very stupid move by Iran.
  19. If this is what it takes to stop the Saudi war--with US support--on Yemen, then I say, good job Houthi's! Enough destruction has already been wrought in Yemen, including thousands of civilian deaths from bombing and starvation. If the US/Saudi war on Yemen doesn't stop now, the whole region will likely go up in flames. Let's hope calm, sensible heads prevail in DC. Time to stop the madness and bring the troops home.
  20. Perhaps, but there is growing pressure to address the plastic waste problem. Plastic bags and straws are already getting banned everywhere. If anything I see a resurgence of paper products. I'm pretty sure those "engineered plastics" are what most people call carbon fiber; sure plastic is involved but that's not where the strength comes from (nor the value).
  21. He is a troll. That is why.
  22. Here is a fascinating article that describes how a hedge fund has purchased a shuttered refinery in the US Virgin Islands and will re-start a portion of it to produce lots of low-sulfur marine diesel for IMO 2020. It touches on the intricacies of the Jones Act, the shift of US Gulf Coast refineries to natural gas for their processing energy and how that hurt other Caribbean refineries as to competitiveness, and lots of other arcane details that a typical industry follower would miss. This is a great article by a great analyst.
  23. Whether it is an IOC or an independent, everyone is now more concerned about getting the most buck out of a barrel and how to save at every step to make it more profitable. Those days of bloat are gone, during the oil price crash , IOC's learnt fast what they had to do to survive and be profitable, cost cuttings, efficiencies and getting rid of bloat. They all may not have done it at every level but most did. Nowadays, things are done in an instant, an email, IM or whatever companies choose to let their employees use to make decisions fast. Companies that dont adapt, adopt and improve and become efficient and competitive will find themselves to be future fossils. Just as the majors are moving into the shale patch , they will go back into offshore at various depths and use technologies and new data processes to map , re-interpret old data with new tech and drill again. Not saying the majors will chase down and buy out every independent that swims in various depths offshore, they will be selective and they will also compete in various water depths if they have good data and can get good data and secure large reserves (large reserves , is relative) .
  24. A big problem with methane ‘ice’ is that to produce it you must take it from it’s solid form to it’s gaseous state and the massive volume change.
  25. Absolutely correct! I have consulted for the operators for the past 25 years or so within the drilling segment of our industry. In the days before the present downturn, it was a dance. We’d hammer the service companies over the contract and prices and they’d hammer back until an agreement was reached. A lot like selling a used car. They wanted as much for their ‘old car’ as they could get for it, and we wanted to get it as cheap as possible. Eventually we’d come to an agreement out in the field, let the respective head offices worry about the fine print and get on with the job. As both parties in the field just wanted to drill a successful well, they usually tended work together as a team. Apparently the shale operators in the States, as that was the only place drilling anymore, in an an effort to improve THEIR precarious financial positions, simply forced the service companies to lower their prices to the point where the service companies were struggling to survive. In the short term this seemed to work. I guarantee you that the service companies that survive will not forget this. As drilling eventually picks up internationally, these companies will start moving personnel and equipment to more lucrative, or more friendly, environments. In the oilfield especially, ‘what goes around, comes around’.
  1. Load more activity