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  1. Past hour
  2. The lessons of history and the pricing mechanism are the two main reasons for my assesssment. On an inflation-corrected basis, world crude price has averaged less than $40/B for the past 160 years. The 30-year cycle in vogue since 1970 swings above that average and then swings below that average. It has been above the average for 15 years. Time for the "below $40"for the next 15 years. $25/B is my guess of the rough lined-out bottom. IMO 2020 could chop another $10/B off of that number if Canada, Saudi Arabia, Iraq Venezuela, Russia and Kuwait don't wake up soon.
  3. Today
  4. "Donations" in exchange for acceptance of the children of alumni is technically fine in the US. The new thing is the super rich have been paying to cheat test scores - which I find much more reprehensible.
  5. Mainstream Media will likely find the EU election results surprising. Clueless and tone deaf to voter sentiments, as usual. Also, Canada's Trudeau will likely be toast in October. Here's a quick rundown so far: Massive Victory for Conservative Nationalists in European Elections Polls are all closed. Election results are beginning to come in fast. The overall result in the European (EU) Parliamentary Election reflects massive gains for conservative nationalists in Italy, Greece, France, Poland, Hungary, Austria, U.K. and others… Over 400 million people can vote in 28 countries, seven of which held ballots between Thursday and Saturday, with the remainder voting today, Sunday. Source Feeds: Here (BBC) and Here (Reuters) and Here and Here and Here (UK centric) ♦In France Marine Le Pen has defeated the party led by Emmanuel Macron. Exit polls in France indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant National Rally party came out on top in an astonishing rebuke of French President Emmanuel Macron, who has made EU integration the heart of his presidency (link). ♦In Greece Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is likely to call a snap general election in June, after the opposition party took the lead. ♦Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party is expected to come first in the election with 42.4% of the vote. ♦Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was expected to win 56% of votes, state television reported. ♦Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz leading with support for Kurz’s conservative People’s Party, at 34.5%. ♦In Italy Matteo Salvini’s far-right League is now emerging as Italy’s largest party, and the 5-Star Movement has lost a third of its voters over the course of a year. ♦[ In Germany ] Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition, the CDU/CSU, has lost multiple seats now dropping to a projected 28 (out of 96). ♦In the U.K. Nigel Farage Brexit Party is crushing the traditional political classes. With 100 of 373 counts complete, the brand new Brexit Party is in the lead with 31.9%, crushing the two largest parties,Conservatives and Labour, who are down 12-14% each so far.
  6. When the hydrate melts it conveniently creates fresher water - you end up getting an upward flow of, less-dense, partially desalinated water with the gas. I feel the desalination effect will be of significance if harvesting is ever of commercially viable.
  7. Thanks, I haven't bothered reading that thread because I have no interest in it. I'm not Oil Price staff, just a "power user" here, and I don't read every thread. Thanks for the alert, now I'll need to go check it out and see what's going on in that thread. Tip, anyone should be able to "flag" a comment to alert moderators. When a comment gets flagged, all mods get a notification to check it out, and the flag doesn't go away until a mod clears (unchecks) the flag.
  8. Yesterday
  9. I believe this is the route most will go. Use open loop scrubbers and for the places where they are banned just use 0.1% MGO as a stop gap.
  10. Please see my message on adsorbent CNG cylinders. 

     

  11. In some strange way it's like investing in tobacco a few years back. No one PC wanted to touch the stuff, so it became a great deal to invest in, a fantastic, underpriced, cash cow.
  12. Japan’s Cosmo Oil to halt supply of 1.0% sulfur A-fuel oil as early as September Japan’s third largest refiner Cosmo Oil will halt the supply of 1.0% sulfur A-fuel oil in the domestic rack and waterborne markets from as early as September, when it starts to supply bunker fuels that comply with the International Maritime Organization’s sulfur limit rule, a company official told S&P Global Platts. The company official with parent Cosmo Energy Holdings, however, declined to elaborate on the matter. Cosmo Oil holds about a 13% share of A-fuel oil supply in Japan. However, market participants said that Cosmo Oil’s move is related to difficulties in keeping separate tank storage for a wide range of products due in part to the company’s response to the IMO mandate. The company is facing a lack of storage facilities to keep its supply of A-fuel oils with different sulfur content — 0.1%, 1.0% and 0.5%, market sources added. A-fuel oil — a blend of gasoil and fuel oil in a 90:10 ratio — is one of the key products supplied by Japanese refiners used by industrial power plants, coastal vessels as well as construction and agricultural machinery in the country. Cosmo Oil’s latest move came to light after Platts first reported in February that the refiner planned to start supplying 0.5% sulfur bunker fuel from October in response to changes in IMO regulations, with the expansion of the coker at its 100,000 b/d Sakai refinery in western Japan. Cosmo Oil has a combined 363,000 b/d capacity over three refineries in Japan, with oil terminals in Hakodate in the north and Sakaide in the west. JXTG ALSO CONSIDERING SUPPLY SUSPENSION Japan’s largest refiner JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy, which has a 48% share of A-fuel oil supply in the domestic market, also told Platts it is considering suspending a part of its supply of A-fuel oil, when it starts supplying IMO-compliant bunker fuel. “We are considering it [to halt A-fuel oil supply],” a company official said, when asked whether the company was also suspending its supply of A-fuel oil. According to market sources, JXTG was halting its supply of A-fuel oil, when it starts supplying IMO-compliant bunker fuels, with some customers already informed by the largest refiner. JXTG, which accounts for 40%-50% of domestic bunker fuel supply, is ready to start supplying IMO-compliant bunker fuel by October, Tsutomu Sugimori, president of parent JXTG Holdings, said on May 13. Meanwhile Idemitsu Kosan, which together with its wholly-owned subsidiary Showa Shell has a 34% share of domestic A-fuel oil supply, is the second largest refiner in Japan and it has decided to continue supplying 1.0% sulfur A-fuel oil even after January next year. “We have estimated that a certain amount of demand for 1.0% sulfur A-fuel oil from shipowners would remain. Essentially, those who have installed scrubbers on their tankers,” a company official said. Refiner Taiyo Oil does not supply any bunker fuel oil from its sole 138,000 b/d Kikuma refinery in western Japan — as it does not normally produce any residual fuels — with a 32,000 b/d residue fluid catalytic cracking unit, a company source with direct knowledge of the matter said. In the fiscal year to March 31, 2019, Japan’s A-fuel oil demand stood at 11.07 million kiloliters or 190,762 b/d, accounting for about 7% of total oil products demand, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry data. The IMO will cap global sulfur content in marine fuels at 0.5% from January 1 next year, down from 3.5% currently. This applies outside the designated emission control areas where the limit is already 0.1%. Shipowners will have to either burn cleaner, more expensive fuels or install scrubber units for burning high sulfur fuel oil to comply with the rule. Rack oil products are those that are transported by refiners and other independent suppliers over land by tank lorries — loaded from either refinery tanks or secondary tanks outside the refinery. Waterborne oil products are primarily supplied by local refiners and major trading houses in Japan. On Wednesday, Platts assessed Japan’s rack 1.0% A-fuel oil, or HSAFO, in Kanagawa, Tokyo Bay, at Yen 64,700/kl, or $93.15/b, and waterborne HSAFO in Tokyo Bay at Yen 64,900/kl.
  13. Which means they don't have any base to cover but running back and forth on one line until those who watch give up?? Wow........ how like the parliament....... going back and forth on one small ball for years and could end up back to no progress............... Guess someone needs to suggest a better national game for men or no? Those little Rounders........ they cover bases......... in a clear safe or out manner....... and the end result of a game would show within half a day........... might worth a mention......... how effective it has been .... game of those tiny kids'
  14. True...... Certainly......... Two kids met at a hospital. The first kid was crying very loudly. 2nd kid:"Why are you crying?" 1st kid:" I came to donate blood and they cut my finger." 2nd kid started to cry even louder after hearing that. 1st kid:" Why are you crying?" 2nd kid:" I came to donate urine............" What I'm trying to say is........ some times our assumption is correct........ some times........ it isn't........... Our assumptions vs reality could create coincidental truth and/ or disparity. Support it with why and/or why not - that's all was suggested....... Regarding the cub that looks like a kitten or a kitten that looks like a cub - we can assume now on what it is. But the answer could only be known when the growth becomes reality and the little thing turns matured........ we could be right; could be wrong...... until then....... we could never be certain ......... or no?
  15. I'm sure that's exactly what he'd want his supporters to believe. I'm probably a lot more cynical.
  16. Yes, I have mentioned that too-
  17. Thanks for highlighting this Tom. I believe that in the attempts to switch to EV technology a lot of Oil and Gas will be needed up front to produce the vehicles and infrastructure needed ( mining, manufacturing, shipping.) With the government helping with paying for it all. I think the reason the car industry is adopting the EV story is they see it as a golden opportunity to sell every one who already has a car a new one as their old one ( sold to them as the latest tech not so long a go ) is now clearly 'a dirty polluting menace' which must be banned !
  18. The trade issue with China can be resolved in phases, if only the Chinese are willing to go that far and be fair. Fairness again is relative to? yes the currency issue, the IP rights and opening up their markets in various sectors plus the dumping of goods as well as creating a level playing field in terms of comparative costs (this wont happen , they will always be cheaper ..... well always is a long time but they will be cheaper compared to US made products and goods for a long long time). President Trump is the only President who has taken this head on and has not minced his words in relation to this issue. He can scale up the trade issue at different levels and phases and each phase would have a range of the issues to be resolved, once the trade agreement has reached say 35% resolution in terms of IP rights, opening of the markets, balancing the volume of goods and products trades, move onto the next phase and level, and go for that goal post, 50% achieved and then scale up. The EU will just ride the coat tails of President Trump's victories and successes on the trade issue with China as will other nations and engorge themselves on the crumbs scattered around. China has been exposed and is in the spotlight brought on to their practices by President Trump, they are trying to wiggle their way out but they are like the proverbial deer in the headlight. They also have lot more to lose than the US, they are completely dependent on foreign energy resources , and food among other things and dependent on trade with the US . Their market losses of $5 trillion is just going to keep growing. EU is not going to stand up to China, African nations are not going to, Latin American nations are not going to (maybe Brazil as they may still have some leverage and working with the US they maybe able to do so to a certain degree, as they also have a good and large natural resources base and food resources) , other countries in Asia are not going to, Australia may do that now. Canada going into the future change in their gov and with the backing of trade deal signed with the US, maybe able to as well have some leverage.
  19. One can probably assume they don't mean this last part as a compliment. In a tone that sounded like how the Times reacted to other shock wins, Cave almost sputtered on how this Australian election was supposed to go: I wish "politics" were never invented. But they reflect human nature. Politicians try to sway others one way or the other. It is useful to listen to other folks points of view such as in these blogs. I am in Canada (dual US citizen), so I need to listen to those who are in the know Down Under. As an engineer, I always had to do research and be open to new facts and adjust my recommendations accordingly. As a retiree, I finally found time last year to read about Global Warming and Climate Change (I didn't even know they weren't the same thing). I read most of the related articles on Wikipedia. That was a good start. Then I read some of their references and links. So I believe the earth is warming. Next ice age starts in over 40,000 years away, too late to help. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age. Only 10,000 years ago there were Saber Tooth Tigers and Mammoths in what is now downtown Los Angeles! The Little Ice Age that caused the year with no summer in Europe has been receding in Canada and elsewhere since the late 1800's. The Athabasca Glacier's tip is staked out yearly to mark its recession due to the Little Ice Age ending. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age. Back to the subject. I can see that the access to information on the web is making it more difficult for politicians (who are often swayed by political donors), to sway us to their biased points of view. Better for the voter who has and takes the time to research. We couldn't do that as easily in the past. One article I recommend for this topic is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_global_warming In summary, our global political institutions are so cumbersome (and/or biased) they will never solve any global warming issue. I like the solutions people found on the Netflix series "Islands of the Future". Beautifully filmed. Smaller islands that worked to solve their unique situations. (They were able to go green for economic reasons.) Each island had a different situation and a unique solution. While politicians talked and taxed elsewhere, these islands have solutions that were implemented beginning decades ago. Now they are "green". My opinion is that Australian and other voters now have access to information that allows them to displace those politicians that just "talk green". Australians can work out their solutions to their specific problems. Screw the global institutions influence over individual countries. "One size does not fit all." (But use the globally accumulated and vetted research.) I am not a "green". I believe we need to adjust our economies with minimal job disruptions to whatever new technologies become technically and economically viable. But 12 years until we burn to death you can forget ! I think the higher priority is to worry about our future sources of drinking water and population growth. Maybe those issues should be on the politicians platforms. Also the competition from China for resources. Tell them. I wrote my MLA yesterday. India needs resources too. However, unlike China, they play fair by the world's standards.
  20. http://www.ngvglobal.com/blog/ang-technology-to-collect-boil-off-gas-on-lng-ships-0524#more-112010 https://cenergysolutions.com/ang-cylinders/ https://cenergysolutions.com/conformable-ang-tank/ https://cenergysolutions.com/ang-home-fueling/ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261996000153 https://www.automotive-fleet.com/132899/adsorbent-natural-gas-tanks-applied-to-first-fleet-truck https://www.truckinginfo.com/130790/carbon-adsorption-to-reduce-cng-costs Adsorbent natural gas takes use special materials such as carbon to absorb large amounts of natural gas without using high pressure tanks. They can be used in spaces that are not normally used and minimize loss of cargo space. This is because they can be made into irregular shapes, not just as cylinders. This technology has been pursued for years and is now coming to fruition. One potential use would be for quickly fueling automobiles and pickup trucks or vans, at home or elsewhere, with low pressure natural gas pumps. Cenergy Solutions states that their ANG low pressure tanks can hold more natural gas and flow better than existing natural gas tanks. . These vehicles could also be dual fuel with either diesel or gasoline as the option.
  21. https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/05/24/analysis-oil-market-glut-lead-declining-prices-through-2020/3760213002/ Use link for complete article "With the OPEC-Russia meeting ahead, the price of oil is at a crossroad. President Trump wants lower prices for gasoline at the pump and the Democratic Party wants a shortage to lift prices higher. This is the 2020 presidential election, to re-elect Trump or a create a Democratic left-center White House. Is OPEC-Russia ready to sustain output cutbacks for $70 Brent Oil or continue revenue maximum against market share? Curiously, in the conversation at Vienna the Oxy purchase of Anadarko will resonate. Why? Oxy must now increase its export of oil to lower its debt (Warren Buffet and more) and prevent a serious management miscalculation of paying too much for Anadarko. Permian Delaware shale, with new high volume pipelines completed soon, must find expanding import markets of l.5 million barrels of oil per day or the equivalent of OPEC-Russia resuming late 2016 output for export"
  22. Most complete article I've seen on the Foxconn factory where 350,000 people work. When you think about moving that to the US, where could you site a factory to pull that many employees in, especially considering the massive turnover? https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-factory-foxconn-china-photos-tour-2018-5 I'm familiar with this factory since my brother in law was a director there. The suicides were almost all related to love affairs. 95% of the employees are between 19-29 and single.
  23. Last week
  24. Iraq actually was quite stable. If you have to give credit where due, and Saddam ran a stable government. Regional stability had nothing to do with that war, and the WMD was a fabrication. We've (USA) come out well behind in Syria. And remember our great allies in the region, KSA invested silly amounts of money funding folks against Assad. And since Iran has benefited from the entire mess, Israel also came out behind. Lebanon behind, Jordon behind. If there was a winner, perhaps Russia, little put in, and a lot of influenced gained. Kaddafi actually predicted this in I believe a BBC interview, almost exactly to what has transpired, when we started saber rattling against Saddam the second time, before the war. He couldn't believe we didn't have the sense to see what the inevitable consequences would be, so against our own interests. Winning battles is easy for the USA. Understand the consequences, not so much. Syria is an extreme example of a complete lack of allies for the west. No matter who we backed, we were going to lose. Best to leave it be, which is essentially what we did except for rooting out the establish ISIL folks. ISIL was only there because Assad couldn't defend the east of the country as he struggle to maintain power and the USA created ISIL with our misplaced adventurism. KSA spends more on the military than China. Iran doesn't even make the top ten. Iran is good at proxy wars of a sort, but they can't project power in the traditional sense suggested. They can't afford the toys. Iran does have some battle harden soldiers so they have no need to fear their enemies in Arabia or Turkey. They are also willing to play the long game, which the USA struggles with. Blow something up, declare victory, and move on to the next thing to blow up. Wag the dog baby, wag the dog. Military Expenditures 2018 SIPRI - List of countries by military expenditures - Wikipedia.htm
  25. Our conservatism should be,and is nothing like, the conservatism cough....nationalism....we see in Europe and south of the border.
  26. Since there is no nationalization of Canada's crude oil resources, Canadians do not get a break on the price of crude oil fuels and products even though Canada is an exporter of crude oil. Instead, they have to pay the full market prices and compete with others who want to buy crude oil from Canada. Petro-Canada was an attempt at this but has since been sold off.
  27. Also, if I were Putin and Russia I would be more worried about China's interest in Siberia which is next door to China since Siberia is resource rich, underpopulated and vast rather than saving savaged Syria which has already lost Russia its influence in Ukraine.
  28. Buffett's Betting on Oil, and He's Rarely Wrong https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeschultze/2019/05/24/buffetts-betting-on-oil-and-hes-rarely-wrong/#3a2c6fd971fc
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